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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-11-2012
The dollar declined for a second day against the euro as U.S. lawmakers publicly wrangled over the spending cuts and tax increases of the so-called fiscal cliff.
The greenback was mixed against higher-yielding currencies after a report showed the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter and House Speaker John Boehner said “no substantive progress” was made in budget talks.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats were all on the same page on budget talks and Senator Chuck Schumer said there has been progress. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Boehner’s comments were a “tactic.”
The euro gained against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as Italy’s benchmark bonds gained for a third day as borrowing costs declined at a debt auction.
Spain’s 10-year bond yield dropped to the lowest level in eight months while similar-maturity Italian yields declined to the least in two years, signaling the debt crisis that has weighed on the shared currency since 2010 may be easing.
European stocks rallied to their highest in 17 months as optimism grew that U.S. President Barack Obama will reach an agreement with Congress on a new budget.
Obama said after European markets closed yesterday that the two political parties can agree on a framework for a budget deal to prevent $607 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into effect in January.
A European Commission report showed that economic confidence in the euro area climbed in November from a three- year low. The index of executive and consumer sentiment in the region increased to 85.7 from a revised 84.3 in October. Economists had forecast the gauge would be unchanged from an initial reading of 84.5.
Another release showed German unemployment rose less this month than economists had predicted. The number of people without jobs increased 5,000 to 2.94 million, the Federal Labor Agency said. Economists had forecast joblessness would climb by 16,000, according to the average estimate.
National benchmark indexes advanced in every western- European market except Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.2 percent, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.5 percent and Germany’s DAX added 0.8 percent.
Rio Tinto jumped 5.1 percent to 3,090 pence after saying it will cut $5 billion from operating and support costs next year. The mining company also said that it will increase production at its iron ore, copper and alumina units.
Invensys Plc soared 8.9 percent to 305 pence. The maker of software for London Underground trains will probably be acquired after completing the sale of its rail-signaling division to Siemens AG, RBC said. After the close of European trading yesterday, Invensys said it agreed to sell the unit to Siemens for 1.74 billion pounds ($2.8 billion). Вarclays Plc and Bank of America Corp. also recommended buying the shares. Invensys posted its biggest two-day rally since at least 1988.
Volkswagen AG added 1.3 percent to 165.80 euros, its highest price in at least 20 years, after Europe’s largest carmaker said it will extend its partnership with China’s FAW Group beyond 2016, when the existing contract expires. The new joint venture will run for an additional 25 years. Both companies concluded that neither side has infringed on technology patents, Volkswagen said.
--Inflation to fall below 2% in 2013, expectations anchored
--Germany 2013 economic outlook not rosy, but robust
--EMU irreversible, will do everything within mandate
--Full ECB bank supervision only realistic in 2014
--U.S. Basel III debate worrisome, must implement 2013
Oil rose for the first time in four days as the U.S. economy expanded more than previously estimated and on optimism that President Barack Obama will reach an agreement with Congress over a new budget.
Prices gained as much as 2.5 percent as gross domestic product grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from a prior estimate of 2 percent, figures from the Commerce Department showed. Three out of four global investors expect a short-term agreement to avert more than $600 billion in U.S. spending cuts and tax increases, known as the fiscal cliff.
The U.S. economy expanded as a narrower trade deficit and gains in inventory overshadowed a smaller increase in consumer spending. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed called for 2.8 percent growth in third-quarter GDP, the value of all goods and services produced. The economy grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter.
Oil also rose after other reports showed fewer Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week and Americans signed more contracts in October to purchase previously owned homes.
Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 23,000 to 393,000 in the week ended Nov. 24, according to the Labor Department. The index of pending home resales climbed 5.2 percent in October, exceeding the highest estimate in a survey of economists, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed.
The U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, used 18.8 million barrels a day in 2011, or 21 percent of the global total, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
Crude for January delivery climbed to $88.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 2.5 percent this month.
Brent for January settlement rose $1.54, or 1.4 percent, to $111.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
--Public sector taking on other risk w/Greek deal
--It is essential that Greece meet reform commitments
--If not new measures would have no effect
--Greece has still a long way to go
--Greece aid deal must not become model for others
--Legacy bank assets shouldn't be mutualized
--Legacy assets must be covered by member states
Boehner giving readout after meeting with Geithner and speaking to Obama, saying Dems have yet to get serious on fiscall cliff, saw no specific plans.
Gold prices are rising after the strongest in four weeks before the decline, as investors are nervous as we approach the deadline for an agreement that would allow the U.S. to prevent a financial crisis in the next year.
Speaker of the U.S. House Republican John Boehner on Wednesday reported a possible compromise in the negotiations on the "fiscal cliff." President Barack Obama said he expects to negotiate with Congress before Christmas.
The dollar fell after the U.S. Department of Commerce today announced that in the 3rd quarter GDP registered a growth rate of 2.7% vs. 2.8% and 2.0% in the previous quarter.
Also today it was announced that the number of Americans last week, first applied for unemployment benefits fell by 17 thousand to 393 thousand compared to forecasts of 390 million and 410 thousand in the previous period. The number of repeat calls registered a decrease of 50 thousand to 3.2878 million against 3.337 million the previous week.
In October, pending transactions in the U.S. housing market dynamics recorded at +5.2% m / m and 13.2% against the forecast of 0.8% and 0.4% / 14.5% in September.
Stocks of the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust for a second day reached a record, rising to 1.347,018 tons.
December futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1728.10 dollars per ounce.
After breaking 1.3000 and reaching a maximum at 1.3013 pair came under strong technical pressure, which caused prices to revert to the session low of 1.2976 after the data surpassed forecasts U.S. housing market.
In October, pending transactions in the U.S. housing market dynamics recorded at +5.2% m / m and 13.2% against the forecast of 0.8% and 0.4% / 14.5% in September. Market rumors continue to circulate about a possible further easing of monetary policy the Fed - according to John Gilzenrata, after the expiration of the "Operation Twist" Fed QE may include buying Treasuries, thereby running the unlimited program of quantitative easing. That is why at the moment markets sensitive to releases that may affect the course of monetary policy.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2920, $1.2925, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.60, Y81.80, Y81.90, Y82.25
EUR/JPY Y106.75
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0360, $1.0450, $1.0465, $1.0535Data
00:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence October 17.2 26.4
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m October -3.7% +3.4%
00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter III +3.4% +2.1% +2.8%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III -0.1% +0.2% +0.6%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +0.3% +0.8% +1.4%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index November +0.6% +0.2% 0.0%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y November -0.9% -1.2%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change November 19 17 5
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. November 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln October 1.7 0.9
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 50.0 51.5 53.0
10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator November -1.62 -1.60 -1.19
10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence November -18.0 -17.3 -15.1
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Financial Stability Report November
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance November 30 19 33
The dollar fell to its weakest level in a month against the euro, as optimism about the fact that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement to avoid the so-called "financial failure" caused damping demand for safer assets.
The U.S. currency fell against all but two of the 16 major currencies in anticipation of a report from the U.S., which is expected to show that gross domestic product growth accelerated in the third quarter to a level 2.8%, compared with the initial estimate at around 2 %.
The euro rose for the first time in four days against the yen as Spanish and Italian yield bonds dropped to the very minimum values for the last eight months, while stoking optimism that the debt crisis in the region is weakening.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against six currencies, the U.S. partners, fell 0.3% to 80.106.
Pound weakened for a second day against the euro after a report showed that house prices in the UK remained unchanged this month, adding to evidence that the recovery is losing momentum in the country. At the same time, annualized decline of 1.2%. Note also that the average price of a house in the UK was 163,853 pounds November.
EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair sharply increased significantly, setting all-time high at $ 1.2998
GBP/USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.6000, but later rose to $ 1.6035
USD/JPY: during the European session is around Y82-Y82.20
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will become aware of the balance of the current account balance of payments for the 3rd quarter and the index of commodity prices for October. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will publish data on GDP, the GDP price index, an index of personal consumption expenditures, the main index of personal consumption expenditures in Q3, as well as information on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits for November. At 15:00 GMT the United States will report on changes in the volume of outstanding home sales for October. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand has announced the change of volume of building permits issued in October. Finish the day at 23:30 GMT Japan data on the change of the level of household spending in October, the consumer price index in Tokyo, Tokyo CPI excluding prices for fresh food, Tokyo CPI excluding prices for food and energy, the index of consumer prices, the consumer price index excluding prices for fresh food, the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy in October, as well as preliminary data on industrial production for October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3050-70, $1.3020/30, $1.3000
Bids $1.2920/15, $1.2905/00, $1.2880, $1.2860
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6125, $1.6075/85, $1.6060, $1.6033
Bids $1.5980, $1.5960/50, $1.5900
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0525, $1.0490
Bids $1.0440, $1.0425, $1.0400, $1.0355/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8165, stg0.8115, stg0.8113
Bids stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35
EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.10/14, Y107.00, Y106.96 27, Y106.75/80
Bids Y106.20/15, Y106.00, Y105.80, Y105.50, Y105.05/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y82.70, Y82.60/65, Y82.50, Y82.30/40
Bids Y82.00, Y81.80, Y81.60/50, Y81.20
Positive impact on investors has news that U.S. President Barack Obama and Republicans can come to an agreement on the budget. Obama said he is confident that the government and the Congress before Christmas can agree on how to avoid the "fiscal cliff." Between the Democrats who control the Senate, and Republicans have a majority in the House, there is a "complete agreement, at least in theory," the need to preserve the "Bush" tax breaks for the "middle class."
Optimistic comments were heard from the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives John Boehner that the Republicans can come to an agreement with the White House on the budget.
Unemployment in Germany in November 2012 did not change and remained at the October level of 6.9%, according to data of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) of Germany.
FTSE 100 5,850.16 +46.88 +0.81%
CAC 40 3,548.85 +33.66 +0.96%
DAX 7,393.36 +49.95 +0.68%
Shares of Rio Tinto Group climbed 2.3%. Paper Volkswagen AG gained 0.9% through the extension of the agreement on a joint venture with Chinese automaker FAW Group. Invensys Plc capitalization increased by 13%, recommendations svyazis Barclays and Bank of America to buy shares of the company.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2920, $1.2925, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.60, Y81.80, Y81.90, Y82.25
EUR/JPY Y106.75
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0360, $1.0450, $1.0465, $1.0535
Asian stocks rose as U.S. lawmakers said they’re optimistic for an agreement to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases and as the leader of Japan’s opposition party called for unlimited monetary policy easing.
Nikkei 225 9,400.88 +92.53 +0.99%
S&P/ASX 200 4,477.73 +30.42 +0.68%
Shanghai Composite 1,963.49 -10.04 -0.51%
Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 44 percent of its sales in North America, gained 2 percent in Tokyo.
Sky Network Television Ltd., New Zealand’s largest pay-TV operator, jumped the most in more than a year in Wellington after announcing a special dividend.
Starpharma Holdings Ltd. tumbled 29 percent in Sydney after the biotechnology company said it won’t file a application for a new drug in the U.S. after a disappointing clinical trial.
Yesterday the Dollar Index fell for the first time in three days as comments from U.S. lawmakers fueled optimism the so-called fiscal cliff will be avoided.
Equities reversed declines as Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said he is optimistic lawmakers engaged in budget talks can “avert this crisis sooner rather than later.” He made his remarks to reporters, while saying he continues to oppose the expiration of tax cuts for top earners and Democrats need to get “serious” on budget cuts. Obama said separately at the White House, “My hope is to get this done before Christmas.”
The yen rose to a one-week high against the dollar as technical indicators signaled its recent decline may have been excessive.
The euro pared losses against the greenback as stocks rebounded and amid speculation investors will accept Greece repurchasing its own bonds at below market prices. The euro pared losses as Greece said it would unveil plans next week to tender for bonds issued in its 100 billion-euro ($129 billion) restructuring this year. The prices are “expected to be no higher than those at the close” on Nov. 23, euro-area finance ministers said. Those notes trade at about 29.5 cents on the euro, up from 28.1 percent last week, according to brokerage Exotix Ltd. in London.
Asian stocks fell, with a regional benchmark index headed for its first loss in six days, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said failure to prevent the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. would increase the risk of a global recession.
Nikkei 225 9,308.35 -114.95 -1.22%
S&P/ASX 200 4,447.31 -9.52 -0.21%
Shanghai Composite 1,973.52 -17.64 -0.89%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, sank 1 percent in Sydney, leading losses among companies with earnings closely tied to economic growth.
Komatsu Ltd., which gets about a quarter of its sales in the U.S., fell 1.7 percent.
Hulic Co. tumbled 11 percent after the Japanese real-estate operator said it plans a share sale.
European stocks were little changed as investors assessed conflicting reports about the progress of U.S. budget negotiations aimed at avoiding automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into force next year.
Boehner told reporters in Washington that politicians will continue their discussions “sooner rather than later” to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.
Erskine Bowles, the co-chairman of Obama’s 2010 fiscal commission said it was unlikely the president and Congress will reach an agreement by the end of this year. “I’m really worried,” Bowles told reporters in Washington. “I believe the probability is we’re going over the cliff.”
Reid, speaking to reporters in Washington, said that following a Nov. 16 White House meeting, Republicans backed away from their openness to considering new tax revenue as part of the budget.
National benchmark indexes retreated in 11 of the 18 western-European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.4 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX advanced 0.2 percent.
Celesio retreated 2.6 percent to 12.94 euros after Haniel, sold 100 million euros ($129 million) of stock in the drug wholesaler. The closely held German investment company sold about 7.9 million shares at 12.60 euros apiece.
Metro declined 3.7 percent to 21.32 euros as Haniel said it will reduce its stake in Germany’s largest retailer to 30 percent from 34.2 percent within 18 months. Haniel also plans to raise about 150 million euros by selling non-strategic assets to help reduce net borrowing below 2 billion euros.
Nokia Oyj lost 1 percent to 2.54 euros. The mobile-phone maker’s American Depository Receipts lost 5.7 percent in New York yesterday after Kantar Worldpanel ComTech reported that Apple Inc.’s iPhone more than doubled its U.S. market share to 48 percent over the 12-week period ended Oct. 28.
Raiffeisen Bank International AG retreated 5 percent to 31.51 euros after eastern Europe’s second-biggest lender reported third-quarter net income of 141 million euros. That missed the average analyst estimate of 148 million euros.
Nestle climbed 1.2 percent to 60.60 francs after forming a joint venture with Chi-Med to develop gastro-intestinal treatments based on traditional Chinese medicines. Nestle Health Science and Chi-Med will each own half of Nutrition Science Partners Ltd., the companies said in a statement today.
U.S. indices started today's session lower, which intensified after the publication of the data has not met expectations for the housing market. However, later indexes retreated from session lows and were able to gain a foothold above the zero mark on the background of the speaker comments of the U.S. House John Boehner, who said the willingness to sacrifice budget revenues (meaning lower taxes), if it is combined with a reduction in costs.
After more than a week of silence negotiations to reduce tax breaks and expenditures have started to give their comments on the matter. And although there is still no specific information is not available, investors are encouraged by the presence of at least some actions to address the looming problem.
Note that today Braque Obama discussed budget issues with business leaders, including representatives of Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar.
Obama said that the agreement on the budget can be achieved in the coming weeks and hopes to reach an agreement before Christmas. Furthermore, he added that he plans to raise taxes on the rich.
The U.S. housing market, in turn, were reduced in new home sales in October, up 0.3% to 0.368 million, despite the expectations increase.
Most of the components of the index surged DOW (26 vs. 4). More than others in the share price fell Cisco Systems (CSCO, -0.74%), leading shares Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +2.83%).
All sectors of the S & P showed moderate growth. Lead sector conglomerates (0.9%) and services (+1.0%).
Shares of American coffee producer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters jumped by 27.8% against the publication of the annual forecast for earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
Shares of Knight Capital investment company soared 14.8% on news that Getco Holding made an offer to buy Knight Capital for $ 3.50 per share.
At the close:
Dow 12,985.03 +106.90 +0.83%
Nasdaq 2,991.78 +23.99 +0.81%
S & P 500 1,409.93 +10.99 +0.79%
00:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence October 17.2 26.4
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m October -3.7% +3.4%
00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter III +3.4% +2.1% +2.8%
The dollar was 0.4 percent from the lowest this month versus the euro before Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner meets congressional leaders to discuss the so-called fiscal cliff. Geithner will meet separately with each of the four top leaders in Congress today. House Speaker John Boehner said yesterday he is “optimistic” lawmakers engaged in budget talks can avert the crisis.
The Dollar Index declined for a second day after comments from U.S. lawmakers fueled optimism the $607 billion combination of tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect in January will be avoided.
The yen fell versus most major peers as Asian stocks gained before data forecast to show the U.S. gross domestic product expanded faster than previously estimated. The U.S. economy probably grew at an annualized 2.8 percent in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the figures due today. The initial reading from the Commerce Department last month showed a 2 percent increase.
The European Commission is likely to confirm today that a gauge of the euro area’s consumer confidence slid to the lowest in more than three years as the region’s prolonged debt crisis weighed on growth. The index fell to minus 26.9 this month from minus 25.7 in October, economists forecast, matching the figure released a week ago that was the lowest since May 2009.
Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today that Greece’s debt burden remains unsustainable even after European finance ministers decided to ease bailout terms and release funds to the nation.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2940-60.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6005-20.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y82.00-20.Change % Change Last
Oil $86.67 +0.18 +0.21%
Gold $1,718.70 +2.20 +0.13%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,308.35 -114.95 -1.22%
S&P/ASX 200 4,447.31 -9.52 -0.21%
Shanghai Composite 1,973.52 -17.64 -0.89%
FTSE 100 5,803.28 +3.57 +0.06%
CAC 40 3,515.19 +13.06 +0.37%
DAX 7,343.41 +11.08 +0.15%
Dow 12,985.03 +106.90 +0.83%
Nasdaq 2,991.78 +23.99 +0.81%
S&P 500 1,409.93 +10.99 +0.79%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2952 +0,08%
GBP/USD $1,6013 -0,04%
USD/CHF Chf0,9292 -0,12%
USD/JPY Y82,07 -0,11%
EUR/JPY Y106,30 -0,01%
GBP/JPY Y131,41 -0,13%
AUD/USD $1,0475 +0,29%
NZD/USD $0,8236 +0,38%
USD/CAD C$0,9919 -0,25%
00:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence October 17.2 26.4
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m October -3.7% +3.4%
00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter III +3.4% +2.1% +2.8%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III -0.1% +0.2%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +0.5% +0.8%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index November +0.6% +0.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y November -0.9%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change November 20 17
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. November 6.9% 6.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln October 1.7 0.9
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 50.0 51.5
10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator November -1.62 -1.60
10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence November -18.0 -17.3
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Financial Stability Report November
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance November 30 19
13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter III -16.0 -18.0
13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index October +1.3% -0.4%
13:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m October +0.5% 0.0%
13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (revised) Quarter III +2.0% +2.8%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +2.0% +2.0%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.3% +1.3%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims November 410 404
15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) October +0.3% +0.9%
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m October +7.8% 0.0%
23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI November 46.9
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October -0.9% -0.8%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y October -0.3% -0.4%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y October -0.1% -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y November -0.8% -0.6%
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y November -0.4% -0.4%
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate October 4.2% 4.2%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) October -4.1% -1.8%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) October -8.1% -8.0%
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