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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 30-11-2012
The euro rose to a more than one- month high against the dollar as German lawmakers approved Greece’s latest rescue package amid optimism U.S. politicians will agree on a new budget.
The euro gained versus most major peers as legislators in Germany’s lower house of parliament, or Bundestag, voted 473-100 to ratify an agreement forged among euro-area finance ministers on Nov. 27 to cut the rates on Greece’s bailout loans, suspend interest payments for a decade, give the country more time to repay and engineer a buyback of its bonds.
The yen slid to the weakest in seven months versus the shared currency after data showed Japan’s consumer prices stagnated in October, adding to speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation.
The yen fell versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food were unchanged in October from a year earlier after a 0.1 percent decline in September, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. The BOJ has an annual inflation target of 1 percent.
The Japanese currency was set for its biggest monthly decline versus the euro since February as Japan opposition leader Shinzo Abe called for measures to boost inflation. The nation will hold elections on Dec. 16 for the lower house of parliament, which determines who will be prime minister.
European stocks posted their biggest weekly rally of the year as speculation rose that Congress will agree on a U.S. budget that avoids the so-called fiscal cliff and China’s manufacturing expanded.
Obama said at a press conference in Bangkok on Nov. 18 that he is “confident” of striking a deal over a new budget. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, said after the close of European trading on Nov. 16 that he held constructive talks with the president and would accept increased government revenue and spending cuts. Congress returns on Nov. 26 after the Thanksgiving recess.
Euro-area factory output contracted less than economists had estimated in November, a Markit Economics report on Nov. 22 showed. The index based on a purchase managers’ survey climbed to 46.2 from 45.4 in October, beating the average economist estimate of 45.6.
In Germany, the Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 101.4 from 100 in October, the first gain in eight months. Economists predicted a drop to 99.5, according to the median estimate of economists.
National benchmark indexes increased in all of the 18 western European markets this week, except Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 3.8 percent, France’s CAC 40 added 5.6 percent and Germany’s DAX Index climbed 5.2 percent.
Nokia soared 31 percent, the biggest weekly gain since 1992. The Finnish mobile-phone maker said Nov. 19 it received reports that its Lumia 920 model had sold out in Germany. Danske Bank A/S analyst Ilkka Rauvola advised investors to buy the shares, saying in a note dated Nov. 22 that Nokia will sell 36 million smartphones that use Microsoft Corp.’s Windows software in 2013, higher than an earlier estimate of 23 million.
Alcatel-Lucent jumped 13 percent after people familiar with the matter said Nov. 22 the network equipment vendor is in talks with Goldman Sachs to get a loan to strengthen its balance sheet. Before this week, the company’s shares had declined 35 percent from the beginning of the year to trade near the lowest price since at least 1992.
Swiss Life Holding AG surged 15 percent, the largest increase since March 2009. Analysts estimated before its investor day on Nov. 28 that the life insurer may write down almost half the value of its German broker unit AWD Holding AG.
Fugro NV tumbled 12 percent after the world’s biggest surveyor of deepwater oilfields cut its full-year profit forecast and said Chairman Arnold Steenbakker will step down.
Easing lower, Dow down about 30 points after Boehner says there is a stalemate in "Cliff" talks. Nasdaq is down 9.
Oil rose, heading for its first monthly gain since August, on signals U.S. economic expansion is accelerating, while investors weighed developments in government budget negotiations.
Futures climbed as much as 0.8 percent after the MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer showed activity in the U.S. grew in November for the first time in three months. Democrats and Republicans are holding talks in Washington to avoid more than $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff. They are due to kick in next year.
The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer rose to 50.4 in November from 49.9 the prior month. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Congressional Republicans rejected President Barack Obama’s tax-and-spending proposal. The plan calls for $1.6 trillion in tax increases and $400 billion in unspecified cuts.
Republicans complained that Obama’s offer was little more than a rehash of old budget proposals, setting the stage for more contentious negotiations over the next several weeks.
Oil surged earlier this month amid eight days of fighting between Israel and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, before the two sides signed a Nov. 21 truce agreement. Protests erupted in Egypt after President Mohamed Mursi issued a Nov. 22 decree that prevents his actions from being challenged by the courts.
The Middle East and North Africa accounted for about 40 percent of the world’s petroleum output last year, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
Crude oil for January delivery climbed to $88.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 0.5 percent this week and are 2.8 percent higher this month. Prices are down 10 percent this year.
Brent oil for January settlement rose 32 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $111.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Middle class tax cut now would give time for broader deal
EUR / USD started to decline before the report of consumer spending in the New York session, reaching a low of $ 1.2968. Oversold couple forced to retreat, recover the loss, and then it rose to highs after a report of Chicago PMI, which exceeded $ 50 but was below forecasts.
RBC also reduced the outlook for U.S. GDP in Q4 from 1.0% y / y to 0.2% on the back of weakening consumer spending in the 4th quarter and the impact of Hurricane Sandy. Market forecasters expected value of 1.7%.
Rally pair reached a session high of $ 1.3022, up 6 pips below the daily high of $ 1.3027. Investors spend the rest of the day, in response to news about the "fiscal cliff."
U.S. stock futures were little changed as lawmakers continue to negotiate on the federal budget and data showed consumer spending fell in October.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,446.01 +45.13 +0.48%
Hang Seng 22,030.39 +107.50 +0.49%
Shanghai Composite 1,980.12 +16.63 +0.85%
FTSE 5,886.66 +16.36 +0.28%
CAC 3,576.47 +7.59 +0.21%
DAX 7,427.28 +26.32 +0.36%
Crude oil $88.10 +0.03%
Gold $1725.70 +0.09%
Pfizer (PFE) was initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Merck (MRK) was initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.15, Y82.25, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y82.95
EUR/JPY Y107.00
GBP/USD $1.6025
EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8085
USD/CHF Chf0.9150
AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0450
USD/CAD C$0.9970
Data
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3% +25.2%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October +1.5% -0.3% -2.8%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October -3.1% -0.3% -0.8%
07:45 France Consumer spending October 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y October -0.3% -0.4% -0.5%
08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 1.67 1.61 1.50
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) November +2.5% +2.4% +2.2%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 11.6% 11.7% 11.7%
The yen fell to its lowest level in seven months against the euro after data showed that Japan's consumer prices were unchanged in October, which led to the fact that the Prime Minister of Japan Yoshihiko Noda approved a second round of economic stimulus in an attempt to provide push the economy ahead of the elections to be held in December. Note that the new package, which cost 880 billion yen ($ 10.7 billion) will be financed from budget reserves, avoiding it-sale debt. This package is more than twice the size of the stimulus measures that were announced in October. Also, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that industrial production in Japan rose 1.8% in October, showing the first increase in four months. However, the ministry maintained its assessment that "manufacturing is in a downtrend."
The Japanese currency fell against all 16 major currencies, while fixing its biggest monthly decline against the euro.
Euro rose after German lawmakers approved last rescue package for Greece (473 for, 100 against)
The dollar fell to a five-week low against the single currency against the fact that Democrats and Republicans argued over spending cuts and tax increases to prevent so-called "financial cliff"
The pound fell to a five-week low against the euro on speculation that European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis in the region, causing a decline in demand for relatively safe assets the UK.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose sharply, setting all-time high at $ 1.3026, on later fell to $ 1.2990
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6063, but then fell to $ 1.6013, while setting a new low
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has set high at Y82.75
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will become aware of any change in GDP in September, changes in GDP for the quarter year on year in Q3. At the same time, the U.S. leaves the main index for personal consumption expenditures, deflator of personal consumption expenditures for October, as well as data on changes in the level of spending for October. Finish the day at 14:45 GMT U.S. Chicago PMI index publication in November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3070, $1.3050, $1.3030
Bids $1.2940, $1.2920/15, $1.2905/00, $1.2880, $1.2860
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6175/80, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25, $1.6080/85
Bids $1.6005/00, $1.5965/55, $1.5940-20
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0525, $1.0490, $1.0460, $1.0445/50
Bids $1.0400, $1.0355/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.94, Y82.80
Bids Y82.35/30, Y82.05/00, Y81.80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y109.00, Y108.50, Y108.00
Bids Y107.00, Y106.80, Y106.50, Y106.20/15
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8195/200, stg0.8125, stg0.81165
Bids stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00
European stock indices traded in the green zone. According to Bloomberg, had had a positive impact statement by the former member of the board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, which says that Spain may avoid the need to apply for financial assistance from the European Union, as it manages independently despite expectations to raise funds in the debt markets.
Also support the market provided an optimistic forecast of U.S. President Barack us embrace the situation with the threat of the "fiscal cliff." Obama hopes to negotiate with Congress to "Christmas."
The unemployment rate in the euro area in October was as expected (11.7% (11.7% of the forecast). Eurogroup on Monday plans to consider the details of Greece's debt repayment and a draft memorandum of understanding with Cyprus.
FTSE 100 5,879.3 +9.00 +0.15%
CAC 40 3,574.74 +5.86 +0.16%
DAX 7,424.13 +23.17 +0.31%
TNT Express shares rose 1.3%. Shares of Spanish construction company Ferrovial SA airport operator rose 2.4% after it was announced that its Board of Directors approved the dividend for 2012 at the level of 1 euro per share. Stock price of Hugo Boss AG fell 0.9% after the deterioration of recommendations for the company's securities by Goldman Sachs to "neutral" from "buy."
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.15, Y82.25, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y82.95
EUR/JPY Y107.00
GBP/USD $1.6025
EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8085
USD/CHF Chf0.9150
AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0450
USD/CAD C$0.9970
Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index heading for its second weekly advance, as Japan’s cabinet approved an economic stimulus package and the country’s industrial production unexpectedly increased.
Nikkei 225 9,446.01 +45.13 +0.48%
S&P/ASX 200 4,506.04 +28.31 +0.63%
Shanghai Composite 1,979.41 +15.92 +0.81%
Nissan Motor Co., which gets 79 percent of its sales outside Japan, gained 0.9 percent as the yen dropped to a seven- month low against the euro.
Rio Tinto Group rose 2.8 percent in Sydney as JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the mining company’s plan to cut costs by $5 billion may boost shareholder returns.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Hitachi Ltd. rose after agreeing to merge thermal-energy businesses.
Yesterday the dollar declined for a second day against the euro as U.S. lawmakers publicly wrangled over the spending cuts and tax increases of the so-called fiscal cliff.
The greenback was mixed against higher-yielding currencies after a report showed the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter and House Speaker John Boehner said “no substantive progress” was made in budget talks.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats were all on the same page on budget talks and Senator Chuck Schumer said there has been progress. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Boehner’s comments were a “tactic.”
The euro gained against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as Italy’s benchmark bonds gained for a third day as borrowing costs declined at a debt auction.
Spain’s 10-year bond yield dropped to the lowest level in eight months while similar-maturity Italian yields declined to the least in two years, signaling the debt crisis that has weighed on the shared currency since 2010 may be easing.
Asian stocks rose as U.S. lawmakers said they’re optimistic for an agreement to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases and as the leader of Japan’s opposition party called for unlimited monetary policy easing.
Nikkei 225 9,400.88 +92.53 +0.99%
S&P/ASX 200 4,477.73 +30.42 +0.68%
Shanghai Composite 1,963.49 -10.04 -0.51%
Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 44 percent of its sales in North America, gained 2 percent in Tokyo.
Sky Network Television Ltd., New Zealand’s largest pay-TV operator, jumped the most in more than a year in Wellington after announcing a special dividend.
Starpharma Holdings Ltd. tumbled 29 percent in Sydney after the biotechnology company said it won’t file a application for a new drug in the U.S. after a disappointing clinical trial.
European stocks rallied to their highest in 17 months as optimism grew that U.S. President Barack Obama will reach an agreement with Congress on a new budget.
Obama said after European markets closed yesterday that the two political parties can agree on a framework for a budget deal to prevent $607 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into effect in January.
A European Commission report showed that economic confidence in the euro area climbed in November from a three- year low. The index of executive and consumer sentiment in the region increased to 85.7 from a revised 84.3 in October. Economists had forecast the gauge would be unchanged from an initial reading of 84.5.
Another release showed German unemployment rose less this month than economists had predicted. The number of people without jobs increased 5,000 to 2.94 million, the Federal Labor Agency said. Economists had forecast joblessness would climb by 16,000, according to the average estimate.
National benchmark indexes advanced in every western- European market except Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.2 percent, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.5 percent and Germany’s DAX added 0.8 percent.
Rio Tinto jumped 5.1 percent to 3,090 pence after saying it will cut $5 billion from operating and support costs next year. The mining company also said that it will increase production at its iron ore, copper and alumina units.
Invensys Plc soared 8.9 percent to 305 pence. The maker of software for London Underground trains will probably be acquired after completing the sale of its rail-signaling division to Siemens AG, RBC said. After the close of European trading yesterday, Invensys said it agreed to sell the unit to Siemens for 1.74 billion pounds ($2.8 billion). Вarclays Plc and Bank of America Corp. also recommended buying the shares. Invensys posted its biggest two-day rally since at least 1988.
Volkswagen AG added 1.3 percent to 165.80 euros, its highest price in at least 20 years, after Europe’s largest carmaker said it will extend its partnership with China’s FAW Group beyond 2016, when the existing contract expires. The new joint venture will run for an additional 25 years. Both companies concluded that neither side has infringed on technology patents, Volkswagen said.
U.S. stocks started today's session growth, in the middle of trading lost recruited position, but later managed to recover.
The session support indices provided optimism of market participants about solving the problem of automatic tax increases and cost savings, the 'fiscal cliff. " Reason for optimism words yesterday became Speaker of the U.S. House John Boehner and President Obama, who expressed confidence in reaching a compromise on the looming problem.
However, like two weeks ago, no specific thesis was announced today and Boehner reported no significant progress on the issue of "fiscal cliff." Boehner words were voiced after a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. The reason for such a contrast, compared with yesterday's comments, statements Boehner called the Democrats lack a serious approach to real cost savings. This cost reduction is a key condition in which the Republicans are willing to compromise with an increase in taxes. Despite this, Boehner said he hoped that the next talks will be more productive.
From the statistics today pleased housing data - the index of pending home sales rose more than expected in October to the highest level since April 2010 level. In other macro data was below economists' forecasts - according to revised data showed U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2.7% (+2.8% expected), and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 393 thousand from a revised 416 thousand with an average forecast 390 thousand
Most of the components of the index surged DOW (20 of 30). More than the others fell in the share price Intel Corporation (INTC, -2.79%). The reason for selling shares of INTC is now reduced by Goldman their target price to $ 16 from $ 20. In Goldman pay attention to the fact that inventories at manufacturers Intel and AMD have reached record levels, indicating that the deterioration in demand for their products. Lead stocks Unitedhealth (UNH, +3.05%).
All sectors of the S & P showed moderate growth. Lead the health sector (+0.8%).
's Second-largest luxury jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co fell 6.2% after the publication of the quarterly results. Thus, in the third-quarter net income fell 30% to $ 63.2 million, while sales increased by 3.8% to $ 852.7 million in revenue results and profits were below analysts' expectations, and in addition, management has lowered forecasts current year.
Shares of smartphone Blackberry maker Research in Motion jumped by 4% on a rating increase shares to "buy" from neutral analysts Goldman Sachs.
At the close:
Dow 13,021.82 +36.71 +0.28%
Nasdaq 3,012.03 +20.25 +0.68%
S & P 500 1,415.95 +6.02 +0.43%
The key word for jobs, growth is competitiveness
Need to reduce rigidity in labour, products, services
Now is time for extra effort to reinforce integration
ECB takes seriously its new power as bank supervisor
Understand need for greater accountability
The key word for jobs, growth is competitiveness
Need to reduce rigidity in labour, products, services
Now is time for extra effort to reinforce integration
ECB takes seriously its new power as bank supervisor
Understand need for greater accountability
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3% +25.2%
The yen slid to a seven-month low versus the euro after data showed Japan’s consumer prices stagnated last month, fanning speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation. Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food were unchanged in October from a year earlier after a 0.1 percent decline in September, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. The BOJ has an annual inflation target of 1 percent. Economy Minister Seiji Maehara said today that concern over Japan’s economy is increasing and that he wants to cooperate with the BOJ to end deflation.
Shinzo Abe, leader of Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party, yesterday reiterated his call for the Bank of Japan to pump unlimited cash into the financial system until inflation reaches 2 percent. Abe’s LDP had an approval rating of 23 percent, compared with 13 percent for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, the Nikkei newspaper reported yesterday, citing a Nov. 26-28 opinion poll. The nation will hold elections on Dec. 16 for the lower house of parliament.
The dollar was near a one-month low against the euro as Democrats and Republicans wrangled over the spending cuts and tax increases of the so-called fiscal cliff looming for the U.S. in January. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner offered Republican House Speaker John Boehner a proposal to avert an end-of-the- year fiscal cliff that would trade $1.6 trillion in tax increases for $400 billion in unspecified entitlement-program cuts, a Republican aide said, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
After meeting Geithner yesterday, Boehner said President Barack Obama must “get serious” about the fiscal cliff talks. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said Democrats need a proposal from Republicans on what sort of spending cuts they want.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3005.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's low.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y82.55.
Change % Change Last
Oil $87.76 -0.31 -0.35%
Gold $1,725.70 -1.50 -0.09%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,400.88 +92.53 +0.99%
S&P/ASX 200 4,477.73 +30.42 +0.68%
Shanghai Composite 1,963.49 -10.04 -0.51%
FTSE 100 5,870.3 +67.02 +1.15%
CAC 40 3,568.88 +53.69 +1.53%
DAX 7,400.96 +57.55 +0.78%
Dow 13,021.82 +36.71 +0.28%
Nasdaq 3,012.03 +20.25 +0.68%
S&P 500 1,415.95 +6.02 +0.43%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2978 +0,20%
GBP/USD $1,6039 +0,16%
USD/CHF Chf0,9273 -0,20%
USD/JPY Y82,10 +0,04%
EUR/JPY Y106,59 +0,27%
GBP/JPY Y131,69 +0,21%
AUD/USD $1,0434 -0,39%
NZD/USD $0,8225 -0,13%
USD/CAD C$0,9921 +0,02%
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October +1.5% -0.3%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October -3.1% -0.3%
07:45 France Consumer spending October +0.1% -0.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y October -0.3% -0.4%
07:45 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 1.67 1.61
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) November +2.5% +2.4%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 11.6% 11.7%
13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) September -0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m October +0.4% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. Personal spending October +0.8% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m October +0.1% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y October +1.7% +1.7%
14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index November 49.9 51.2
22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks
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