CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 30-08-2012

• Draghi will outline the development of bond-purchase program at a press conference, ECB

• Bond buying program is still under development

• The ECB will buy bonds only a short term maturity

• The ECB will take an independent decision to purchase bonds

• Countries must submit a formal application before the ECB intervenes

• The ECB will buy bonds only in parallel with the EFSF / ESM

• Standard tools of monetary policy are no longer applicable

• ECB true mandate to ensure price stability

• Eurozone countries must solve their problems

• To give Greece more time - then increase spending

• Greece has made progress in reforms

• Inflation expectations firmly restrained

• Monetary policy does not reach the real economy

The euro continued its yesterday's decline against the dollar on negative sentiment in the market, as well as a sharp decline in stock markets at the opening of trading. At the same time, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that Spain will wait a formal request for financial assistance, and the International Monetary Fund said that the European Central Bank should take steps to mitigate the policy. Investors are also slow to cover short dollar positions that are open in the expectation that Bernanke will announce the beginning of the third phase of quantitative easing in Jackson Hole on Friday, as the outcome of this speech is unclear. The single currency rose slightly today amid lower borrowing costs in Italy. Italy sold a ten-year treasury bills in the amount of 4.0 billion euros, 3.0-4.0 billion euro target. The ratio of applications to cover was 1.42 versus 1.29 previously.

On stronger dollar also weighed data on consumer spending, which rose in July for the first time in three months, gaining 0.4%. A separate Labor Department report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. has changed, from a revised upward index last week.

During the first half of the day's pound rose against most currencies after data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased in July, thus indicating a recovery from the recession in June. Data from the Bank of England showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose to the level of 47,312 in July. But even these positive data have not helped the pound to hold their positions, and as a result the currency plummeted, updating the yesterday's low. This trend was caused by the Prime Minister of Spain, Mariano Raho.

His speech also contributed to the decline in value the Australian dollar, which lost its position against most major currencies. But the decline began after a government report that the number of approved applications for housing construction fell in July to -17.3%, reaching the minimum values ​​at the same time in the last ten years in the background of the fact that most of the investment now accounts for the mining industry, which is now at its peak. We also learned that the profitability of Australian 10-year bonds continued to decline, fixing the fall for 10 consecutive days, and is on the verge of the long fall, at least since 1990.

Canadian dollar continues to decline relative to the 16 major currencies after yesterday's data showed that the U.S. economy, which is the largest trading partner, increased by more than the initial estimate. Was supported by the fall in output today's U.S. data, which proved positive.

European stocks fell for a third day as data from Japan to Germany added to evidence that global growth is slowing while speculation cooled that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will announce more stimulus.

Daimler AG (DAI) and Fiat SpA (F) led a selloff in carmakers as Morgan Stanley said earnings in Europe are at risk. WPP (WPP) Plc dropped 1.9 percent after the world’s largest advertising company cut its sales-growth forecast. Carrefour (CA) SA and Vivendi (VIV) SA climbed after earnings topped analyst estimates.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 0.7 percent to 265.28, extending this week’s decline to 1 percent.

Reports today showed retail sales in Japan fell 0.9 percent in July from a year earlier, more than economists forecast, while confidence among manufacturers in South Korea stayed near the lowest level since the global financial crisis. Data out of Australia showed home-building approvals tumbled by the most in almost a decade.

In Europe, German unemployment increased for a fifth straight month in August while economic confidence in the euro area fell more than economists forecast to a three-year low.

National benchmark indexes retreated in every western European market today, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,719.45 -24.08 -0.42% CAC 40 3,379.11 -34.78 -1.02% DAX 6,895.49 -115.08 -1.64%

Daimler led a gauge of carmakers down 4.4 percent for the biggest decline among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600. The German maker of luxury vehicles fell 5.7 percent to 39 euros, Italy’s Fiat dropped 2.5 percent to 4.32 euros and Renault SA (RNO) slid 4 percent to 36.56 euros in Paris trading.

WPP slid 1.9 percent to 815.5 pence after the advertising company reduced its full-year revenue-growth forecast as clients cut spending amid the European debt crisis. Sales excluding the impact of acquisitions and currency fluctuations will grow “close to 3.5 percent” this year versus an earlier forecast for 4 percent, the company said.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group fell 3.2 percent to 1,844 pence and 2.1 percent to 2,716 pence respectively as iron ore sank to the lowest in almost three years in China.

Xstrata Plc (XTA) slid 2.4 percent to 901.7 pence and Glencore International Plc (GLEN) dropped 3 percent to 357.50 pence as Qatar Holding LLC, which has a 12 percent stake in Xstrata, said it will not support a merger between the two companies.

Hays Plc (HAS) tumbled 9.7 percent to 69.25 pence after the recruiter reported a 7 percent decline in full-year net fees, or payments from clients less the payroll costs of workers, for the U.K. and Ireland.

Pernod-Ricard SA (RI) declined 2.1 percent to 85.98 euros after France’s largest distiller reported a 9 percent gain in so- called organic operating profit in the year to June 30, missing the median analyst estimate for a 9.6 percent increase.

Barclays Plc fell 1.7 percent to 183.2 pence after naming Antony Jenkins as its chief executive officer.

Carrefour rallied 7.7 percent to 16.96 euros after the world’s second-largest retailer reported first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates. Recurring operating income declined to 769 million euros ($965 million) from 838 million euros.

Vivendi gained 3.2 percent to 15.60 euros after Europe’s biggest media and telecommunications company reported second- quarter net income, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, of 706 million euros. That also beat analyst estimates of 652 million-euros. The company also raised its full-year forecast for the Activision Blizzard Inc. video-game unit.

ING Groep NV (INGA) rallied 2.8 percent to 5.92 euros after Bank of Nova Scotia agreed to buy the Dutch company’s Canadian unit for C$3.13 billion ($3.16 billion). Canada’s third-largest lender will spend C$1.9 billion after deducting excess capital at ING Direct in the cash deal.

Eiffage SA (FGR) surged 7.4 percent to 24.43 euros after France’s third-largest builder reported an 11 percent gain in first half operating income to 499 million euros as profitability at its APRR toll-road operation climbed.

Gemalto NV (GTO) advanced 5.4 percent to 62.66 euros after the inventor of the smart chip used in bank and phone cards said it will reach its 2013 profit target a year early. Earnings from operations rose 56 percent to 115 million euros, beating the average analyst estimate of 101.3 million euros.

Oil prices rose slightly during the day on the background of the fact that Italy's borrowing costs fell and on optimism that the European Central Bank may soon launch a program to buy bonds.

However, despite this positive trend in the beginning, the price of oil continued its decline yesterday on expectations that oil production will recover quickly from a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico Isaac. Also on such dynamics affect the published data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, which did not change from the revised previous week and totaled 374,000. Prices fell by 0.9%, after it became known that the weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico have improved, and oil platforms again soon to continue his work on oil. Recall that the storm brought Isaac to stop 95% of the units for oil and 72% natural gas. Given these data, the cost of oil has fallen below the minimum values ​​of yesterday.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $ 94.39 per barrel.

October futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $ 112.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

During the session, the price of gold traded in the trading range of the previous day in anticipation of the meeting of heads of central banks at a symposium in Jackson Hole and waiting to hold another round of quantitative easing, the Fed, but fell sharply against the strengthening of the dollar, updating the yesterday's low.

Cost dragmetala rose more than 2% since the last publication of the Fed minutes on August 22, which gave hope of stimulus measures to support economic growth, which is a positive factor for gold.

However, some analysts believe gold, along with other assets, may be vulnerable if Bernanke does not meet the expectations of market participants.

Uncertainty about the central bank's actions have had a negative impact on the share price in the world and commodity prices, while nervousness ahead of the meeting reduces appetite for risk.

Any sign to hold QE will provide additional support for the euro, which is likely to continue to strengthen if the ECB will provide specific plans to help reduce borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

Also worth noting that investment in gold exchange-traded funds rose sharply this month to almost 38 tons, thus showing the biggest monthly inflow since November.

The cost of the September gold futures on the COMEX is now 1650.7 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2520, $1.2550

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y78.70

EUR/GBP stg0.7910

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0250

The futures fell on doubts about the likelihood of Fed Chairman Bernanke saying anything substantive in tomorrow's speech.  S&P futures suggest a down open of about six points.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,983.78 -86.03 -0.95%
Hang Seng 19,552.91 -235.60 -1.19%
Shanghai Composite 2,052.58 -0.65 -0.03%
FTSE  5,733.37 -10.16 -0.18%
CAC  3,400.94 -12.95 -0.38%
DAX 6,954.22 -56.35 -0.80%
Crude oil $95.34 -0,16%
Gold $1665.90 -0.17%

Data
01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence July 15.1 19.5%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m July -2.5% -4.7% -17.3%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y July +10.2% +6.0% +4.8%
01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter II +6.1% +3.1% +3.4%
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change August 7 7 9
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. August 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln July 0.3 1.1 0.9
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals July 44.2 47.0 47.3
09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator August -1.27 -1.30 -1.21
09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence August -15.0 -15.5 -15.3

The euro rose against the dollar ahead of the meeting of Spanish and French leaders to be held in Madrid around 12:30 GMT, which will consider the situation in Spain and the possibility of a second European crisis.
Also, the single currency rose against major currencies amid falling borrowing costs in Italy. Italy sold a ten-year treasury bills in the amount of 4.0 billion euros, 3.0-4.0 billion euro target. The ratio of applications to cover was 1.42 versus 1.29 previously. The maximum yield was 5.82%, against 5.96% previously.
The demand for the euro is rising after yesterday's interview with ECB President Draghi German weekly Die Zeit, in which he stated that the ECB will remain independent and to always act within the mandate
The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen, as investors are awaiting speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow, where he will give a signal to hold new measures to stimulate the economy.
The pound rose against the dollar after data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased in July, thus indicating a recovery from the recession in June. Data from the Bank of England showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose to the level of 47,312 in July
Canadian dollar continues to decline relative to the 16 major currencies after yesterday's data showed that the U.S. economy, which is the largest trading partner, increased by more than the initial estimate.
Revised Department of Commerce data showed that U.S. GDP grew by 1.7% in the year from April to June, compared with the initial estimate of 1.5%.
The Australian dollar fell against most major currencies after a government report that the number of approved applications for housing construction fell in July to -17.3%, reaching the minimum values ​​at the same time in the last ten years in the background of the fact that most of the investment now accounts mining industry, which is now at its peak. We also learned that the profitability of Australian 10-year bonds continued to decline, fixing the fall for 10 consecutive days, and is on the verge of the long fall, at least since 1990. Demand for the currency of the South Pacific is now limited to the release of U.S. data, which is expected to be able to show growth in the number of unemployment benefits and personal expenses.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a high of $ 1.2564, and then fell to the opening level of the day
GBP/USD: pair rose sharply with a minimum value and is now trading in the maximum values ​​of the previous day
USD/JPY: the pair is trading in a narrow range at the level of the minimum values ​​of the day

At 12:30 GMT, Canada will provide the balance of the current account balance of payments for the second quarter. At the same time, the U.S. will report on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in August, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits in August. Also released the main index for personal consumption expenditures, deflator of personal consumption expenditures in July, and the data on changes in the level of spending for July. At 15:00 GMT the United States will be an economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At 23:01 GMT the UK will publish an indicator of consumer confidence from the GfK for August. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will report on changes in the level of household spending for July, the consumer price index of Tokyo, Tokyo, the consumer price index excluding prices for fresh food, Tokyo CPI excluding prices for food and energy, consumer price index, the consumer price index excluding prices for fresh food and the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices in July. Also during this time will be the preliminary data on industrial production for July.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2610, $1.2600, $1.2590, $1.2577

Bids $1.2520, $1.2510/00, $1.2490

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5891, $1.5875, $1.5855/60

Bids $1.5825/20, $1.5810/00, $1.5775/65, $1.5750/40, $1.5720, $1.5705/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0450, $1.0420, $1.0400, $1.0390, $1.0380/85, $1.0345/50

Bids $1.0300, $1.0280, $1.0250

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.20, Y79.00, Y78.90, Y78.75/80

Bids Y78.50, Y78.30/25, Y77.90

EUR/JPY

Offers Y99.80, Y99.45/50, Y99.20, Y99.00

Bids Y98.55/50, Y98.25/20, Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.75/70

European stock indices are down for the third consecutive day, as data from Japan and Korea have added evidence that global growth is slowing, while the likelihood that the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce the host another round of QE is reduced.

Shares of BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group lost more than 1.5% on the fact that the price of iron ore has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years.

WPP Plc fell 2.8% after the largest advertising company in the world has reduced the outlook for sales growth.

Shares of Carrefour (CA) and Vivendi SA (VIV) SA rose after earnings topped analysts' estimates.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 0.4% to 265.98.

In South Korea, producer confidence remains near its lowest level against the background of the global financial crisis, while data from Australia showed that the number of approved applications for housing has fallen to the lowest level in the last ten years.

To date:

FTSE 100 5,730.65 -12.88 -0.22%

CAC 40 3,397.91 -15.98 -0.47%

DAX 6,946.73 -63.84 -0.91%

• Italy sold E793mn CCTeu vs target E500mn-E1.0bn. E793mln of June 2017 CCTeu; avg yield 5.33%, cover 2.42

  Italy sold E4bn 10Y BTP vs target E3.0bn-E4.0bn. E4.0bln of new 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP; avg yield 5.82% (5.96%), cover 1.42 (1.29)

  
  

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2520, $1.2550

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y78.70

EUR/GBP stg0.7910

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0250

NZD/USD $0.8100

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index wiping out its gains for the month, as reports on Japanese retail sales and South Korean business confidence add to signs of an economic slowdown and investors doubt the Federal Reserve will announce further stimulus.

Nikkei 225 8,983.78 -86.03 -0.95%

S&P/ASX 200 4,315.7 -40.74 -0.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,050.31 -2.92 -0.14%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s biggest mobile-phone maker by sales, slipped 1.2 percent in Seoul.

Atlas Iron Ltd. sank 5.5 percent, leading Australian iron-ore producers lower after the metal’s price in China declined to the lowest level in almost three years.

China Cosco Holdings Co. slid 4.1 percent in Hong Kong after the nation’s largest listed shipping company posted a wider first-half loss.

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence July 15.1 19.5%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m July -2.5% -4.7% -17.3%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y July +10.2% +6.0% +4.8%

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter II +6.1% +3.1% +3.4%

Yesterday the dollar rose against most major traded currencies after data released showed that the level in the U.S. rose more than expected, and the number of pending home sales reached a two-year high.

The dollar strengthened against the euro and the yen, as investors' doubts that the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hint at further easing in his speech at the conference on August 31.

The single currency has strengthened slightly after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the reforms in Italy will help reduce the interest the central bank.

The single currency has strengthened by 2.5% against the dollar since August 1, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the central bank can buy Spanish and Italian bonds to limit borrowing costs.

The Canadian dollar traded near a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on positive data from the U.S.. Gross domestic product grew by 1.7% between April and June, compared with the initial estimate of 1.5%. We also learned that the number of pending home sales increased in July by 2.4%, after falling 1.4% in June, and reached its highest level since April 2010. Economists had expected growth of approximately 1.0%. The index also rose by 12.4% compared to the same month last year.

The Australian dollar traded near-month low on concerns that a slowdown in global growth will impact on the economy.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first advance in four days, as investors await a report on U.S. economic growth and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s speech on monetary policy this week.

Nikkei 225 9,069.81 +36.52 +0.40%

S&P/ASX 200 4,356.4 -2.98 -0.07%

Shanghai Composite -19.92 -0.96%

Renesas Electronics Corp. surged 35 percent in Tokyo after the Nikkei newspaper reported that Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. will shares of the chipmaker.

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s biggest mobile-phone maker, climbed 2.9 percent after a court hearing for a permanent ban on U.S. sales of its mobile devices was set down for hearing on Dec. 6.

Daikin Industries Ltd. slid 3.5 percent after a report the Japanese air- conditioner maker will buy Houston-based Goodman Global Inc.

Change % Change Last

Oil 95.15 -0.34 -0.36%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,069.81 +36.52 +0.40%

S&P/ASX 200 4,356.4 -2.98 -0.07%

Shanghai Composite -19.92 -0.96%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2530 -0,26%

GBP/USD $1,5829 +0,07%

USD/CHF Chf0,9583 +0,27%

USD/JPY Y78,69 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y98,61 -0,05%

GBP/JPY Y124,55 +0,28%

AUD/USD $1,0343 -0,19%

NZD/USD $0,8003 -0,49%

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence July 15.1 19.5%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m July -2.5% -4.7% -17.3%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y July +10.2% +6.0% +4.8%

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter II +6.1% +3.1% +3.4%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change August 7 7

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. August 6.8% 6.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln July 0.3 1.1

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals July 44.2 47.0

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator August -1.27 -1.30

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence August -15.0 -15.5

12:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter II -10.3 -15.1

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 372 370

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m July +0.5% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending July 0.0% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m July +0.2% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y July +1.8% +1.7%

15:00 U.S. Jackson Hole Symposium -

23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence August -29 -26

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y July +1.6% +1.3%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate July 4.3% 4.3%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y August -0.8% -0.7%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y August -0.6% -0.6%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y July -0.2% -0.3%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y July -0.2% -0.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) July +0.4% +1.8%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) July -1.5% +1.8%