CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-08-2018

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, as trade worries intensified after the U.S. President Donald Trump stepped up his tough talk on trade.

Global Stocks:

Prices for products sold by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), declined 0.2% in July, led by lower prices for primary non-ferrous metal products. Prices for raw materials purchased by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), rose 0.7%, primarily on higher prices for crude energy products.

The IPPI was down 0.2% in July, following a 0.7% increase in June. July marked the first decline in the IPPI in 2018. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 7 were down, 10 were up and 4 were unchanged.

Primary non-ferrous metal products (-3.3%), which posted their largest decline since July 2017, were the main source of the decline in the IPPI. Lower prices for unwrought precious metals and precious metal alloys (-3.9%) and unwrought copper and copper alloys (-10.1%) pulled this commodity group downward. To a lesser extent, prices of other unwrought non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (-2.9%) and unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys (-3.1%) also contributed to the decline of primary non-ferrous metal products.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.2% in July 2018, stable compared with June 2018 and down from 9.1% in July 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since November 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.8% in July 2018, down from 6.9% in June 2018 and from 7.6% in July 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since April 2008. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Eurostat estimates that 16.823 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 13.381 million in the euro area, were unemployed in July 2018. Compared with June 2018, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 82 000 in the EU28 and by 73 000 in the euro area. Compared with July 2017, unemployment fell by 1.949 million in the EU28 and by 1.368 million in the euro area.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.0% in August 2018, down from 2.1% in July 2018, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in August (9.2%, compared with 9.5% in July), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.5%, stable compared with July), services (1.3%, compared with 1.4% in July) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, compared with 0.5% in July).

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should increase by 2.3% in August 2018 as in July, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month. The inflation should be also stable, the slowdown in energy prices being nearly offset by a slight rise in food prices. Services and tobacco prices should increase similarly to the previous month. Manufactured good prices should decline at the same pace as in July.

Over one month, consumer prices should recover significantly (+0.5% after -0.1% in July). This increase should mainly be due to a seasonal rebound in manufactured product prices after the summer sales in the metropolitan area, and to a seasonal rise in the prices of some tourism-related services. In addition, food prices should increase slightly, in the wake of food products excluding fresh products. Tobacco and energy prices should be stable this month. The slight rise in the prices of petroleum products and domestic gas should be offset by lower electricity prices.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should increase by +2.6% as in the previous month. Over one month, it should rebound to +0.6% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1768 (2095)

$1.1736 (3364)

$1.1713 (2344)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1683

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1641 (3486)

$1.1614 (3227)

$1.1579 (5206)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 135489 contracts (according to data from August, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8569);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3131 (2443)

$1.3073 (1525)

$1.3042 (1265)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3018

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2990 (1118)

$1.2948 (2802)

$1.2916 (2597)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 34801 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (3338);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 35338 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2986);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 30.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Production activities expand at a relatively stable pace.

New export orders index dips into contractionary zone in June.

Backlogs of orders drop at a faster pace.

Stocks of finished goods decrease at a relatively fast pace. Purchases of inputs index stays high in June. Input prices go up at a relatively rapid pace.

Ex-factory prices index stays above critical 50-mark.

Imports index falls to a four-month low. Employment index stays around 49.

Suppliers' delivery time stays relatively stable. Purchasing managers remain optimistic.

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in July 2018 was in real terms 0.8% and in nominal terms 2.3% larger than in July 2017. The number of days open for sale was 26 in July 2018 and in July 2017.

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first seven months of 2018 in real terms 1.4% and in nominal terms 3.0% larger than in the corresponding period of the previous year.