FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities note that, while appreciating the bold and rapid deployment of stimulus measures to backstop the market an economy and earnings outlook is still needed to discount risk associated with an outlook.
“What stocks reflect now is not exactly informative or clean. At some point, the economy/growth will need to matter and earnings will be needed to discount the outlook. Looking at the S&P 500 and forward earnings estimates, the two have diverged in a spectacular and uncharacteristic fashion.”
“Calling a top in equities - even if temporary - has been tough for the bears (ourselves included). But we remain comfortable with the view that risk has overshot and a reality check will need to sink in.”
“Markets may view 2792 in the S&P 500 as a notable pivot, this represents the 50% retracement of the all-time highs and March lows. Failure to hold above this level might instill some bearish momentum in risk, just as earnings season continues to unfold.”
U.S. stock-index futures fell on Monday as market participants weighed the latest coronavirus news along with a plunge in oil prices.
Global Stocks:
| Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
| Nikkei | 19,669.12 | -228.14 | -1.15% |
| Hang Seng | 24,330.02 | -49.98 | -0.21% |
| Shanghai | 2,852.55 | +14.06 | +0.50% |
| S&P/ASX | 5,353.00 | -134.50 | -2.45% |
| FTSE | 5,745.20 | -41.76 | -0.72% |
| CAC | 4,456.03 | -42.98 | -0.96% |
| DAX | 10,491.39 | -134.39 | -1.26% |
| Crude oil | $11.38 | | -37.71% |
| Gold | $1,702.70 | | +0.23% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
| 3M Co | MMM | 145.51 | -0.95(-0.65%) | 7854 |
| ALCOA INC. | AA | 7.3 | -0.29(-3.82%) | 26008 |
| ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 40.45 | -0.40(-0.98%) | 5822 |
| Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 2,388.00 | 13.00(0.55%) | 87265 |
| American Express Co | AXP | 84.48 | -2.91(-3.33%) | 15377 |
| AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 23.85 | -0.65(-2.65%) | 6248 |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | 278.43 | -4.37(-1.55%) | 326889 |
| AT&T Inc | T | 30.81 | -0.42(-1.34%) | 80522 |
| Boeing Co | BA | 147.3 | -6.70(-4.35%) | 647541 |
| Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 113.3 | -3.00(-2.58%) | 32580 |
| Chevron Corp | CVX | 82.52 | -4.65(-5.33%) | 167155 |
| Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 42 | -0.48(-1.13%) | 47137 |
| Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 43.45 | -2.00(-4.40%) | 273788 |
| Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 136 | -2.46(-1.78%) | 715 |
| E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 39.75 | 1.39(3.62%) | 18239 |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 40.7 | -2.52(-5.83%) | 400448 |
| Facebook, Inc. | FB | 177.31 | -1.93(-1.08%) | 65001 |
| FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 123.85 | -1.00(-0.80%) | 3111 |
| Ford Motor Co. | F | 4.99 | -0.13(-2.54%) | 550396 |
| Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 7.91 | -0.43(-5.16%) | 79963 |
| General Electric Co | GE | 6.63 | -0.21(-3.07%) | 573964 |
| General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 21.82 | -0.66(-2.94%) | 21503 |
| Goldman Sachs | GS | 179 | -4.49(-2.45%) | 11554 |
| Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,267.58 | -15.67(-1.22%) | 7815 |
| Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 15.25 | -0.27(-1.74%) | 6519 |
| Home Depot Inc | HD | 205.5 | -3.92(-1.87%) | 13945 |
| HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 137 | -1.32(-0.95%) | 2140 |
| Intel Corp | INTC | 59.4 | -0.96(-1.59%) | 52065 |
| International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 119.3 | -0.82(-0.68%) | 13308 |
| International Paper Company | IP | 31.01 | -0.84(-2.64%) | 781 |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 150 | -2.02(-1.33%) | 15450 |
| JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 92.44 | -2.74(-2.88%) | 153529 |
| McDonald's Corp | MCD | 183 | -3.10(-1.67%) | 8529 |
| Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 82.71 | -0.75(-0.90%) | 2395 |
| Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 176.2 | -2.40(-1.34%) | 247558 |
| Nike | NKE | 88.2 | -1.71(-1.90%) | 127238 |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE | 36.43 | -0.48(-1.30%) | 19388 |
| Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 122.35 | -2.34(-1.88%) | 17490 |
| Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 75.9 | -1.20(-1.56%) | 23226 |
| Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 733 | -20.89(-2.77%) | 191363 |
| The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 47.84 | -0.22(-0.47%) | 21388 |
| Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 103.09 | -1.98(-1.88%) | 2542 |
| Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 26.49 | -0.21(-0.79%) | 83647 |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 287 | -3.56(-1.23%) | 2863 |
| Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 58.18 | -0.28(-0.48%) | 13395 |
| Visa | V | 167 | -2.54(-1.50%) | 42428 |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 131.51 | -0.61(-0.46%) | 12498 |
| Walt Disney Co | DIS | 103.6 | -3.03(-2.84%) | 351052 |
| Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 35.9 | -0.72(-1.97%) | 119931 |
Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; target lowered to $114
Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Boeing (BA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
DuPont (DD) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; target $55
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; target $60
FXStreet reports that according to JP Morgan Asset Management, the 1Q20 earnings season will provide an important first look at how the ongoing pause in global activity is impacting corporate earnings and what investors should expect over the remainder of the year.
“We expect 1Q20 S&P 500 operating earnings to be down -14.6% from a year prior.”
“S&P’s expects 2020 operating earnings per share to come in at a level of $146.57, representing a -6.7% contraction from a year prior. This stands in contrast to pro forma estimates, which suggest 2020 earnings will decline -11.9% in 2020 to a level of $146.57. We are less optimistic, and believe earnings will contract -20% this year; in our opinion, consensus has some catching up to do.”
“We continue to advocate for a focus on quality with a dash of cyclicality. This means embracing sectors like health care, technology and consumer staples, and taking advantage of underweights in highly-levered sectors like energy and REITs to maintain benchmark exposure to sectors like financials.”
April 20
After the Close:
IBM (IBM). Consensus EPS $1.80, Consensus Revenues $17620.14 mln
April 21
Before the Open:
Coca-Cola (KO). Consensus EPS $0.45, Consensus Revenues $8332.86 mln
Travelers (TRV). Consensus EPS $2.83, Consensus Revenues $7305.17 mln
After the Close:
Netflix (NFLX). Consensus EPS $1.64, Consensus Revenues $5746.09 mln
Snap (SNAP). Consensus EPS -$0.08, Consensus Revenues $415.84 mln
April 22
Before the Open:
AT&T (T). Consensus EPS $0.87, Consensus Revenues $44750.33 mln
Delta Air Lines (DAL). Consensus EPS -$0.87, Consensus Revenues $9464.93 mln
After the Close:
Alcoa (AA). Consensus EPS -$0.18, Consensus Revenues $2368.78 mln
April 23
Before the Open:
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Consensus EPS -$0.17, Consensus Revenues $2975.31 mln
After the Close:
Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $1.26, Consensus Revenues $18606.02 mln
April 24
Before the Open:
American Airlines (AAL). Consensus EPS -$2.22, Consensus Revenues $8923.88 mln
American Express (AXP). Consensus EPS $1.64, Consensus Revenues $10601.46 mln
Verizon (VZ). Consensus EPS $1.23, Consensus Revenues $32434.71 mln
| Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKKEI 225 | 607.06 | 19897.26 | 3.15 |
| Hang Seng | 373.55 | 24380 | 1.56 |
| KOSPI | 57.46 | 1914.53 | 3.09 |
| ASX 200 | 71.2 | 5487.5 | 1.31 |
| FTSE 100 | 158.53 | 5786.96 | 2.82 |
| DAX | 324.24 | 10625.78 | 3.15 |
| CAC 40 | 148.85 | 4499.01 | 3.42 |
| Dow Jones | 704.81 | 24242.49 | 2.99 |
| S&P 500 | 75.01 | 2874.56 | 2.68 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 117.78 | 8650.14 | 1.38 |
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