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The dollar gained against most of its major counterparts as stronger U.S. economic data reduced bets the Federal Reserve would add to monetary stimulus, bolstering demand for the currency. Retail sales in the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in February, the most in five months, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a survey before Commerce Department figures due tomorrow. That would follow data on March 9 that showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February after rising by a revised 284,000 the prior month. The unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent.

The 17-nation euro pared losses against the yen before European finance ministers meet in Brussels to review a second aid package for Greece. The euro held a two-week decline against the dollar before ministers from the region’s 17 nations gather in Brussels today to sign off on a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) second package for Greece after bondholders agreed last week to take a loss on the country’s debt.The world’s biggest banks are less pessimistic about the euro as the European Central Bank provides unlimited cash to the region’s financial system, Germany may avoid recession and Greece looks to complete the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history.

European stocks retreated, halting a three-day rally for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as a report showed export in China, the world’s second-largest economy, grew at a slower pace than forecast.

China reported its biggest trade deficit last month since at least 1989, adding to last week’s releases on factory output and retail sales that signaled slowing growth.

Finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro gathered in Brussels today to approve the 130 billion-euro second bailout package for Greece. Bondholders last week agreed to exchange the country’s privately held debt for new securities.

National benchmark indexes declined in 11 of the 18 western-European markets. Germany’s DAX Index added 0.3 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and France’s CAC 40 Index increased 0.1 percent. Gauges in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece fell.

Vedanta Resources Plc dropped 3.7 percent to 1,369 pence as copper snapped a three-day rally on the London Metal Exchange following signals that China’s economy has slowed. France’s Eramet SA lost 4.1 percent to 107.30 euros, while Rio Tinto Group fell 1.7 percent to 3,450.5 pence.

Temenos dropped 4.9 percent to 15.40 Swiss francs and Misys lost 3.8 percent to 328 pence after the Geneva-based software maker terminated merger talks after failing to reach an agreement on a deal.

Pirelli & C. SpA, Europe’s third-largest tiremaker, surged 7.2 percent to 8.39 euros, its highest price since December 2007. The company posted 2011 profit of 451.6 million euros, exceeding the 314.3 million-euro analyst estimate, and increased its dividend to 27 euro cents.

Most U.S. stocks retreated, following a four-week gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as investors weighed whether a Chinese slowdown will lead to an easing of monetary policy at the world’s second-largest economy.

Global stocks fell as China had the biggest trade deficit in at least 22 years, the weakest January-February factory- production gain since 2009 and retail sales were below the median economist estimate. Euro-area finance ministers gather in Brussels today to sign off on the 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) second package for Greece as they focus on Spain’s budget-cutting efforts and Portugal’s aid program.

Dow 12,964.71     +42.69 +0.33%, Nasdaq      2,985.32       -3.02   -0.10%, S&P 500    1,371.46       +0.59         +0.04%

Measures of energy and raw material shares in the S&P 500 retreated amid concern about slower demand. Newmont Mining, the largest U.S. gold producer, dropped 2 percent to $55.77. Schlumberger, the world’s largest oilfield-services provider, declined 2.4 percent to $74.

Two of the largest commodity producers didn’t follow the group’s declines. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) rose 1.3 percent, the most in the Dow, to $85.39. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, added 0.9 percent to $9.90.

Banks had the second-biggest decline among 24 industries in the S&P 500, dropping 0.9 percent. JPMorgan slumped 1.3 percent to $40.50. Morgan Stanley decreased 1.4 percent to $18.11. Wells Fargo & Co. retreated 1 percent to $31.36.

Oracle fell 1.7 percent to $29.62. The software maker was cut to hold from buy at Jefferies Group Inc., citing “greater challenges” to its engineered systems strategy.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. fell 5.9 percent to $46.69. The luxury-goods maker and retailer named for the designer who founded it filed for a secondary offering of 25 million shares.

Oil fell for the first time in four days after Chinese economic data signaled slower growth in the world’s second-largest user of oil.

Futures dropped from a one-week high after China said on March 10 that the country had its biggest trade deficit last month in at least 22 years. Government data also showed that China, the biggest consumer of crude after the U.S., had the weakest January-February factory-production gain since 2009 and retail sales below expectations.

Crude for April delivery declined to $105.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for April settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange slid $1, or 0.8 percent, to $124.98.

The price of gold is reduced to the background of strengthening of the dollar against most world currencies. The demand for more robust U.S. currency support, particularlygiven that the trade deficit in February, China had reached 31.48 billion dollars - is significantly higher than analysts' forecasts and was the highest for a period of almost22 years.

The focus of investors this week will be the new statistical data from the U.S., as well as meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve and the regulator's decision to base rate.

In addition, the gold on the COMEX now cheaper due to profit taking. Over the previous three trading days (9, 8, and March 7) on the COMEX gold price rose by 2.3% and reached a maximum value for the week - $1711.5 per ounce. During the three sessions in the price of gold has added almost 40 dollars/ ounce, providing today a good prize for speculative sales.

April futures price of gold on COMEX has fallen to $ 1692.5 an ounce .

- Hopeful Greece elections won't delay reforms

Resistance 3:1400 (psychological level)

Resistance 2:1377 (area of Feb 29, Mar 1-2 highs)

Resistance 1:1368 (Mar 9 high)

Current price: 1362,50

Support 1:1360 (session low)

Support 2:1357 (Mar 9 low)

Support 3:1350 (area of intraday low on Mar 8)

Cable bids seen placed toward $1.5600, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.5585/80.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.40/45

AUD/USD $1.0640, $1.0650

GBP/USD $1.5850

EUR/JPY Y107.00

U.S. stock futures retreated as commodities slumped after signs of a deeper Chinese slowdown.

China had the biggest trade deficit last month in at least 22 years, the weakest January- February factory-production gain since 2009, and retail sales were below the median economist estimate, government data showed March 9 and 10. The central bank said in a statement today it will maintain a prudent monetary policy while fine-tuning and taking preemptive measures as appropriate.

Global stocks:

Nikkei  9,889.86 -39.88 -0.40%

Hang Seng 21,134.18 +48.18 +0.23%

Shanghai Composite 2,434.86 -4.60 -0.19%

FTSE 5,881.96 -5.53 -0.09%

CAC 3,484.12 -3.36 -0.10%

DAX 6,889.29 +9.08 +0.13%

Crude oil: $106.08 (-1,2%).

Gold: $1703.20 (-0,6%).

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5800/10, $1.5730/50, $1.5725, $1.5700, $1.5650

Bids $1.5600, $1.5585/80, $1.5550, $1.5535/30, $1.5520

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8490/505, stg0.8450/55, stg0.8440/45, stg0.8425/30, stg0.8400/10 

Bids stg0.8350/40, stg0.8300

The dollar rose on speculation U.S. economic reports pointing to stronger growth will reduce the likelihood the Federal Reserve will add to monetary stimulus, bolstering support for the currency.

The dollar is trading on a generally firmer footing after the stronger than expected payrolls report on Friday. Data last week showed U.S. employers boosted payrolls more than economists forecast in February.

The euro fell against the yen before European finance ministers meet in Brussels today to review a second aid package for Greece.

The euro was under pressure against the dollar before ministers from the region’s 17 nations gather in Brussels today to sign off on a 130 billion-euro second package for Greece after bondholders agreed last week to take a loss on the country’s debt.

 

EUR/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,3080-$ 1,3135.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased, showed low in  $1,5600 area.

USD/JPY: the pair receded from the high reached on Friday in Y82,10 area.

  

 

At 1800GMT, the US Treasury Monthly Budget Statement is due.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3145/50

Bids $1.3100, $1.3080/70, $1.3050/40, $1.3035/25, $1.3010/00  

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0685/90, $1.0655/60, $1.0630/35, $1.0595/00, $1.0570/80, $1.0540/60

Bids $1.0480/75, $1.0450, $1.0440/35, $1.0430/25

Resistance 3: Y83.10 (Apr 20’2011 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.80 (Apr 27’2011 high)

Resistance 1: Y82.65 (Mar 9 high)

Current price: Y82.20

Support 1: Y82.10 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.50 (Mar 9 low)

Support 3: Y80.55 (Mar 7 low)

Комментарии: ряд технических факторов (дивергенции между ценой и индикатором MACD на D1, RSI>70 - сигнал перекупленности на D1) указывает на высокую вероятность начала коррекции.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9340 (Jan 25 higb)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (high of February)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9220 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9191

Support 1: Chf0.9180 (session low)

Support 1: Chf0.9110 (intraday low on Mar 9)

Support 3: Chf0.9080/70 (area of Mar 8-9 lows, Mar 1 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.5750 (intraday low on Mar 9)

Resistance 2 : $1.5700 (session high, Mar 6-7 lows)

Resistance 1 : $1.5655 (low of asian session)

Current price: $1.5636

Support 1 : $1.5610 (session low, 50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)

Support 2 : $1.5520 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)

Support 3 : $1.5500 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3280 (area of Mar 1 low, Mar 8-9 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.3210 (intraday low on Mar 9)

Resistance 1 : $1.3135 (session high)

Current price: $1.3108

Support 1 : $1.3080 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2975 (low of February)

Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.40/45

AUD/USD $1.0640, $1.0650

GBP/USD $1.5850

EUR/JPY Y107.00

Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index headed for the first loss in three days, as Chinese exports grew at a slower pace than economists forecast, overshadowing a rebound in Japan’s machinery orders and better- than-expected U.S. jobs data.

Nikkei 225 9,889.86 -39.88 -0.40%

Hang Seng 21,134.18 +48.18 +0.23%

S&P/ASX 200 4,196.69 -15.30 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,434.86 -4.60 -0.19%

Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that gets more than 95 percent of revenue from exports from China, fell 2 percent in Hong Kong.

Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s No. 1 consumer electronics exporter, slid 1.1 percent in Seoul after Apple Inc. claimed it violated a court order in a patent-infringement case.

Railway-related shares plunged in Hong Kong after a report a high-speed railway in China collapsed.

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., a maker of bulldozers and cranes, rose 1.2 percent in Tokyo.

Commerzbank analysts have a negative outlook for the EUR/USD that includes strong resistance at 1.3291/1.3325: “We continue to regard the recent high at 1.3487 as an interim peak and regard the market as directly offered intraday below 1.3291/1.3325”, wrote Karen Jones, targeting 1.2974/54 (Feb-low) ahead of 1.2624 (Jan-low). In conclusion, 1.3487 high marks the end of the upside correction and an eventual drop below 1.2624 will pave the way to 1.2000 region.

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence February 40.0 40.8 39.5

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell ahead of U.S. figures tomorrow forecast to show retail sales rose, reducing the case for additional Federal Reserve stimulus measures.  Retail sales in the U.S. probably increased 1.1 percent in February, the most in five months, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department releases the figures tomorrow. The Federal Open Market Committee meets tomorrow to set monetary policy.

The so-called Aussie weakened against most of its 16 major peers before a report tomorrow economists expect to show Australia’s home loans declined.

New Zealand’s dollar declined against the yen, halting a three-day advance, after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, cut its milk price target.

China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing for the yuan by the most since August 2010 after the government reported the biggest trade deficit in at least 22 years. The currency fell the most in seven weeks as People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Beijing the exchange rate is linked to the balance of payments. The nation’s trade shortfall was $31.5 billion in February, four times the previous largest deficit, according to data released on March 10 by the customs bureau. The central bank will use exchange rates and interest rates to manage the economy as Europe’s debt crisis damps global demand, it said in a statement today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, lowered below $1.31.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was in range $1.5655-$1.5675.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, after growth on Friday.

On Monday US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index and then at  1430GMT by the weekly Retail Trade Index. At 1800GMT, the US Treasury Monthly Budget Statement is due.

On Monday the yen rallied versus all of its most-traded counterparts after China said it will lower its target for economic growth, boosting demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency. China pared the nation’s economic growth target from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, a signal that leaders are determined to cut reliance on exports and capital spending in favor of consumption. The euro gained against most major currencies as Greece said it expected private creditors to accept its debt-swap terms because it constitutes “the best offer.” The euro rose against the dollar after European retail sales unexpectedly increased in January after four months of declines as growth in France helped to outweigh a drop in Germany.

On Tuesday the euro declined to a two-week low versus the dollar after a report showed the region’s economy contracted last quarter, adding to signs the European debt crisis is hampering global growth. Europe’s gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent from the third quarter, the region’s statistics office said, confirming an initial estimate published on Feb. 15. Exports fell 0.4 percent and household spending declined 0.4 percent. The yen rose against all its major counterparts and gained for a fifth day against the 17-nation currency as 20 percent of Greece’s private creditors have agreed to debt restructuring.

On Wednesday the euro rallied from a two-week low against the dollar as investors with 58 percent of the Greek bonds eligible have indicated they’ll participate in the so- called private-sector involvement of the nation’s bailout. The nation has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds to accept the swap if it receives sufficient consent from investors.

The dollar rose against the yen after a report that the Federal Reserve is considering sterilized bond purchases. Brazil’s real tumbled against all of its most-traded counterparts as the government prepared measures to control capital inflows and stem the currency’s appreciation.

On Thursday the euro strengthened  on speculation Greece will attract enough investors to make its debt-swap plan a success, adding to optimism the region’s debt crisis will be contained. The common currency rose for a second day versus the dollar after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and President Mario Draghi said recent surveys showed signs of economic stabilization. The dollar had gained against most major currencies in the period as investors sought safety on concern the Greek debt swap might unravel. Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer.

On Friday the dollar rose to a 10-month high versus the yen as a report showed U.S. job growth during the past six months was the strongest since 2006, dimming prospects for further Federal Reserve monetary stimulus. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February after rising by a revised 284,000 the prior month, data from the Labor Department showed today. The unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments in congressional testimony last week damped speculation the central bank will introduce another round of asset purchases.

The 17-nation euro weakened for the first time in three days against the dollar after Greece said it triggered an option compelling investors to take part in its debt restructuring.

Asian stocks rose for a second day as Greece struck a deal with creditors to help Europe contain its debt crisis and slowing inflation gave Chinese authorities room to stimulate growth in the world’s second largest economy.

Nikkei 225 9,929.74 +160.78 +1.65%

Hang Seng 21,086 +185.27 +0.89%

S&P/ASX 200 4,211.99 +40.95 +0.98%

Shanghai Composite 2,439.46 +19.19 +0.79%

Sony Corp., which depends on Europe for a fifth of its sales, rose 4.3 percent.

Guangzhou R&F Properties Company Ltd. led Chinese developers higher on speculation China may ease curbs on bank lending. Newcrest Mining Ltd. advanced 4.2 percent in Sydney after metal prices gained.

Lynas Corp. jumped 9.3 percent even after a local group filed an appeal to block the company’s rare-earths refinery project in Malaysia.

Resistance 3: Y83.75 (Apr 15 high)

Resistance 2: Y83.10 (Apr 20 high)

Resistance 1: Y82.65 (session high)

The current price: Y82.24

Support 1: Y82.10 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.45 (Mar 9 low)

Support 3: Y81.05 (Mar 8 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9340 (Jan 25 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (Feb 16 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9250 (Feb 15 high)

The current price: Chf0.9215

Support 1: Chf0.9190 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9155 (Mar 7 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9110 (low of the European session on Mar 9)

Resistance 3 : $1.5830 (Mar 8-9 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5750 (low of the European session on Mar 9)

Resistance 1 : $1.5695 (Mar 6-7 low)

The current price: $1.5661

Support 1 : $1.5655 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5600 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.5530 (Jan 24-25 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3230 (high of the European session on Mar 9)

Resistance 2 : $1.3165 (Mar 7 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3125 (session high)

The current price: $1.3089

Support 1 : $1.3085 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)

Support 3 : $1.2975 (Feb 16 low)

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence February 40.0 40.8

18:00 U.S. Federal budget February -27.4 -229.3

19:15 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks 0

23:50 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January +1.4% +0.4%