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- RBA will wait until the Q2 2023 before raising interest rates – Reuters poll
RBA will wait until the Q2 2023 before raising interest rates – Reuters poll
Economists in the October 25-28 Reuters poll predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would raise its key interest rate to 0.25% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023.
The poll also cited those respondents as, “who only a few weeks ago expected no increase across their forecast horizon.”
Key findings
Almost a fifth of economists surveyed have already brought forward their forecasts for a rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.
The latest findings are an abrupt change from a poll conducted only a few weeks ago, when over half of economists predicted rates would stay on hold until at least 2024.
Indeed, 21 of 24 economists said the risk for the timing of the RBA's first move up was that it would come earlier than they expect, largely triggered by stronger wage growth and persistently high inflation.
However, not all economists were convinced the RBA would change its long-held view any time soon.
Wage growth must reach over 3% for the RBA to be convinced the rise in underlying inflation is lasting and interest rates can be raised.
With wages growing just 1.7% in the year to June, the forward guidance may remain centered on 2024, a few economists said.
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