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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-03-2013.
The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar amid insolvency Italian politicians to form a coalition. Exert pressure on the currency upcoming data on Italy's GDP for the fourth quarter, which will show that the region's economy declined in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Market participants expect the news from the meeting in Brussels, the finance ministers of the euro area, as well as a busy week of meetings of central banks. The finance ministers of the euro area meet to discuss whether to give Portugal and Ireland more time to repay loans received under the assistance programs. It is expected that, following last week's inconclusive election in Italy will also discuss the political uncertainty in the country.
With regard to regional statistics, it was mixed. Eurozone confidence among investors decreased significantly in March, topping with analysts' forecasts, and recorded the first decline in six months. Sentix investor confidence indicator fell this month to the level of -10.6, which is the lowest level since December 2012. At the same time, the annual rate of producer price inflation slowed in January to the level of 1.9%, compared with 2.1% the previous month, which fully corresponded to the experts.
The yen rose against all but one of its 16 major counterparts after the Chinese CSI 300 Index fell to the lowest in two years. In addition, the yen strengthened even after the candidate to be the next Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, has promised a more loose monetary policy to overcome deflation in the economy. Kuroda, submitted to Prime Abe said in parliament that the Bank of Japan will do everything possible to end the 15-year period of deflation in Japan.
The pound strengthened against the euro and the dollar amid concern that the formation of the Government of Italy may be delayed, and will have a negative impact on the recovery of 17 countries the currency bloc. In addition, a report released today showed that house prices in the UK rose in February, registering the first increase in nine months. Also today it was announced that the business activity index fell to the end of last month to the level of 46.8, up from 48.7 in January. Note that according to the average analyst estimate the value of this indicator would grow to the level of 49.2. Recall that the value of the indicator below 50 suggests contraction in the sector. The report also said that total production has fallen sharply, demonstrating the highest rate of decline over the past 3 years. Meanwhile, it was reported that the number of new orders declined, while accelerating its pace, while the so-sector employment showed a slight increase.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100
USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.75, Y94.00GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5050
EUR/GBP stg0.8700Data
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m January -4.4% +2.8% -2.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y January +9.3% +8.1% +9.9%
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) February -0.9% +3.0%
00:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter IV -2.9% -0.9% -1.0%
09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings March
09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence March -3.9 -4.5 -10.6
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction February 48.7 49.2 46.8
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM January -0.2% +0.5% +0.6%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) January +2.1% +1.9% +1.9%
13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks March
The euro fell, approaching its lowest level in nearly three months against the dollar, which was associated with the failure to form a coalition of Italian politics. Meanwhile, the pressure on the currency to provide data on the upcoming Italian GDP for the fourth quarter, which will show that the region's economy declined in the fourth quarter of 2012.
We also add that the final negotiations between Republicans and Democrats on the budget sequestration ended on Saturday, and, unfortunately, a long-awaited compromise policy is not found, Obama signed a bill to reduce government spending by $ 85 billion by the end of this year. President immediately tried to convince some of the apocalypse will happen after that.
The yen rose against all but one of its 16 major counterparts after the Chinese CSI 300 Index fell to the lowest in two years. In addition, the yen strengthened even after the candidate to be the next Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, has promised a more loose monetary policy to overcome deflation in the economy. Kuroda, submitted to Prime Abe said in parliament that the Bank of Japan will do everything possible to end the 15-year period of deflation in Japan. However, the currency could not hold the earned position, dropping to their lowest levels of the session.
The Australian dollar fell to near an eight-month low against the U.S. dollar, as the data presented today showed that the number of permits issued for the construction or reconstruction of homes and apartments fell in January by 2.4%, compared with a revised downward fall by 1 , 7% in December. Note that according to the average forecast in January the value of this index should increase by 2.8%.
The pound strengthened against the euro amid concern that the formation of the Government of Italy may be delayed, and will have a negative impact on the recovery of 17 countries the currency bloc. In addition, a report released today showed that house prices in the UK rose in February, registering the first increase in nine months. Also today it was announced that the business activity index fell to the end of last month to the level of 46.8, up from 48.7 in January. Note that according to the average analyst estimate the value of this indicator would grow to the level of 49.2. Recall that the value of the indicator below 50 suggests contraction in the sector. The report also said that total production has fallen sharply, demonstrating the highest rate of decline over the past 3 years. Meanwhile, it was reported that the number of new orders declined, while accelerating its pace, while the so-sector employment showed a slight increase.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.2980
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair trade the range $ 1.4995-$ 1.5060
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y93.69
At 18:15 GMT the U.S. with an address by a member of the Federal Open Market Jerome Powell. At 22:30 GMT Australia will index services from AIG in February.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3100, $1.3080, $1.3040/50
Bids $1.2980-60, $1.2950, $1.2920, $1.2900, $1.2880, $1.2865-50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5100/05, $1.5080
Bids $1.5000, $1.4985/80, $1.4965/60, $1.4950
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0290/3.00, $1.0280, $1.0240/60
Bids $1.0100, $1.0050, $1.0020, $1.0000
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8720/25, stg0.8695/700
Ордера на покупку stg0.8610/00, stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50, stg0.8520, stg0.8505/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y122.10-20, Y122.00, Y121.99
Bids Y121.00, Y120.80, Y120.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y94.95/00, Y94.75/80, Y94.50, Y94.30/35, Y94.00, Y93.70/75
Bids Y9310/00, Y92.85/80, Y92.65/60, Y92.45/40, Y92.10/00
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100
USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.75, Y94.00
GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5050
EUR/GBP stg0.8700
The euro fell sharply against the dollar, dropping below the level at the time of $ 1.30, which was the first time in two months after a report published showed that activity in the manufacturing sector continued to decline, while the unemployment rate has reached a record high. Note that the EU statistical agency Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate in the euro area in January was 11.9%. This is the highest value for the 17 countries in the currency bloc to start keeping statistics in 1995. Value is higher than the January December, which, after an upward revision was 11.8%. Meanwhile, according to preliminary data, Eurostat, annual inflation in the euro area in February was 1.8% versus 2.0% in January. This is the lowest level since August 2010. Inflation is currently below the target level of the European Central Bank, which is just below 2.0%. In addition, note that the single currency is now on his way to his fourth consecutive weekly decline against the dollar, which is the length of the strip loss since June.
The dollar index rose to its highest level since August, as the inability of the U.S. government to avoid automatic budget cuts, known as sequestration, encouraged investors to look for safer assets.
However, the euro to recover most of its losses against the dollar amid comments of U.S. President Obama. Obama said that until recently, tried to prevent the suspension of the government, as evidenced by his willingness to accept a program to reduce budget spending billions of dollars, which automatically goes into effect, even though he did his best to prevent automatic spending cuts to save jobs place and avoid the negative effect on the economic recovery. Obama said that it was rebuffed congressional Republicans agree on a balanced budget by raising taxes on further spending cuts to avoid automatic sequestration. Obama also warned that the impact of automatic cuts would have a negative impact felt by ordinary citizens, and that will force Republicans to change their point of view.
The pound fell substantially after the data presented Markit, showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing of Great Britain in February fell to 47.9, below the key 50 level that separates growth territory from the territory of contraction. Economists had expected a slight improvement to 51.0. Activity in the UK manufacturing sector declined in February, as the decreased amount of new foreign and domestic orders, and the company reduced staff at the fastest pace in more than three years. This renewed expectations that the Bank of England may resume quantitative easing program in one form or another, at its meeting on monetary policy, which will be held on Thursday.
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m January -4.4% +2.8% -2.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y January +9.3% +8.1% +9.9%
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) February -0.9% +3.0%
00:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter IV -2.9% -0.9% -1.0%
Japan’s currency rose versus the euro as Asian stocks extended a global rout before data this week forecast to show Europe’s economy contracted.
The yen gained even after the nominee to become the next Bank of Japan governor pledged more monetary easing to defeat deflation. Haruhiko Kuroda, Abe’s pick to run the central bank, said in parliament today that the BOJ will do whatever is needed to end 15 years of deflation, including an early start to open- ended asset purchases. The BOJ announced those steps in January, deferring them till next year.
The euro traded 0.4 percent from the lowest in almost three months against the greenback as Italy edged closer to a new election. In Rome, a top aide to Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani said the country may need to hold another election this year after last week’s vote ended in a four-way split. The electorate revolted against German-inspired austerity measures, handing the party of comedian-turned-politician Beppe Grillo more than 25 percent of the vote with its anti-spending cut message and a call for a referendum on euro membership.
Australia’s dollar sank to a five-month low after building approvals declined. The number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments declined 2.4 percent from December, when they fell a revised 1.7 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median economist forecast was for a 2.8 percent gain.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3000-30.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.5020-40.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y93.25-70.
Eurozone PPI data due up at 1000GMT in an otherwise data light morning. However, the week ahead provides interest with central bank decisions due from the RBA, BOC, ECB, BOE and BOJ, though no change expected in policy from any of them (ECB Draghi will outline key elements of the quarterly staff projections). US employment report Friday to end the week. Sterling was seen under pressure Friday following the release of weak manufacturing PMI data. This will turn attention onto services PMI data Tuesday, a weak reading here expected to put the market on a QE extension footing. BOE rate decision due this week (Thursday), but despite the recent 6-3 split at the last meeting to keep QE unchanged, most expect rates and QE to again hold steady (despite BOE King's vote for stg25bln extension last meeting).
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m January -4.4% +2.8%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y January +9.3% +8.1%
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) February -0.9%
00:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter IV -2.9% -0.9%
09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings March
09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence March -3.9 -4.5
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction February 48.7 49.2
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM January -0.2% +0.5%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) January +2.1% +1.9%
13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks March
18:15 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks March
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index February 45.3
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