Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 08-02-2012.

The euro fluctuated against the dollar amid speculation Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and coalition party leaders will fail to agree on terms required for a bailout. Greece’s Papademos negotiated with political leaders in Athens after delaying the gathering for a second time in as many days. Yesterday he met officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout. Euro-area finance ministers are due to gather tomorrow in an emergency meeting in Brussels as the Greek government pushes to complete talks.

The Dollar Index rose from its weakest level in two months on demand for a refuge as Greek political leaders were locked in discussions with Papademos.

The yen fell against the majority of its major peers as Japan’s current-account surplus slid to a 15- year low in 2011. The yen dropped after the Finance Ministry in Tokyo said Japan’s current-account surplus shrank 44 percent in 2011 from the previous year to 9.63 trillion yen ($125 billion), the lowest since 1996. Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive as a haven because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.

European stocks dropped for a third day. Greece’s Prime Minister Lucas Papademos met the leaders of the three political parties that support his government in Athens today. He held an unscheduled meeting late last night with the troika -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- to haggle over the terms needed to secure further aid.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 10 of the 18 western- European (SXXP) markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.2 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index and Germany’s DAX Index decreased 0.1 percent.

BHP Billiton retreated 2.3 percent to 2,130 pence. The world’s biggest mining company reported a 5.5 percent drop in first-half profit, the first decline since 2009, as rising costs and lower output and prices cut its earnings from base metals by half.

Vestas plunged 14 percent to 57.50 kroner for the largest slump on the Stoxx 600. The world’s biggest wind-turbine maker reported an annual loss of 166 million euros ($220 million), according to its annual report.

Banco Espirito Santo SA surged 13 percent to 1.67 euros, while Banco Comercial Portugues SA rose 5.1 percent to 18.5 euro cents.

UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, added 2.2 percent to 4.48 euros. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the country’s second-largest bank, gained 3 percent to 1.60 euros.

U.S. stocks fell, erasing an earlier advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid concern that Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and coalition party members would fail to agree on terms required for a bailout. Equities reversed gains after a report that the European Central Bank was still divided on its role in a Greek debt restructuring.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos began negotiating with leaders of the political parties supporting his caretaker government as he tried to make up for lost time to secure a second aid package. ECB policymakers are still divided on what contribution the central bank could make, Reuters says, citing two unidentified euro-zone monetary-policy sources.

Dow 12,856.10 -22.10 -0.17%, Nasdaq 2,903.91 -0.17 -0.01%, S&P 500 1,346.14 -0.91 -0.07%

иslumped 3.3 percent to $2.37. The net loss expanded to $1.3 billion, or 43 cents a share in the fourth quarter, from $929 million, or 31 cents, a year earlier, the carrier said today in a statement. The company said it had one-time costs of 8 cents a share from revaluing assets. Analysts predicted a loss of 38 cents, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Western Union Co. slumped 8.4 percent to $18.06. The world’s largest money-transfer business forecast earnings in 2012 will be no more than $1.75 a share, less than the average analyst estimate of $1.81.

Hartford jumped 7.3 percent to $20.52. Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund manager who controls the largest stake in Hartford, told Chief Executive Officer Liam McGee he needs to reverse the insurer’s stock slide. The insurer declined 39 percent last year and trades at less than half of the company’s book value, which is a measure of assets minus liabilities.

Ralph Lauren Corp. rallied 9.7 percent to $172.33. The retailer of its namesake brand clothing said revenue in the current fiscal year may gain more than it previously expected.

Oil retreated after the U.S. Energy Department reported that inventories climbed as fuel consumption dropped to the lowest level in almost 13 years.

Futures slipped from the day’s highs after the department said crude supplies rose 304,000 barrels to 339.2 million in the week ended Feb. 3. Gasoline stockpiles increased to the highest level in almost a year and inventories of distillate fuels unexpectedly gained. Total fuel demand fell 0.5 percent to 17.6 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1999.

Crude oil for March delivery slipped to $98.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $99.77 a barrel before release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m.

Brent oil for March settlement dropped 1 cent to $116.22 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Data:

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate January 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance December 15.1 14.1 13.9

The euro rose  on speculation Greece is making progress on measures needed to win international aid, boosting demand for the shared currency.

The euro rose before Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos meets political leaders in Athens to hammer out financing to avert a collapse of the economy.

Greece’s Papademos yesterday met officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro bailout.

He also held “constructive” talks with Charles Dallara, managing director of the International Institute of Finance, which has negotiated the terms of a debt-swap deal with private bondholders, and Deutsche Bank AG Chairman Josef Ackermann, the IIF said in a statement.

EUR/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,3240-$ 1,3290.

GBP/USD: the pair showed low in $1,5870 area, but later slightly restored.

USD/JPY: the pair receded from session high, fell to Y76,70 area.

At 1530 GMT the EIA Wkly Crude Oil Stocks numbers are released.

GBP/USD 

Offers $1.5990/6000, $1.5950

Bids $1.5860/40, $1.5825/20, $1.5765/60

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350, $1.3325/35, $1.3300

Bids $1.3240/30, $1.3210/00, $1.3190, $1.3170/60

EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3250, $1.3290, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y76.35, Y76.55, Y76.80, Y76.95, Y77.00, Y77.50, Y77.60

AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.0800, $1.0765, $1.0625

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050, Chf1.2100

GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.5850, $1.5755

The yen weakened versus all of its major peers as an advance in Asian shares damped demand for haven currencies and data showed that Japan’s current-account surplus slid to a 15-year low in 2011. Japan’s current-account surplus shrank 44 percent in 2011 from the previous year to 9.63 trillion yen ($125 billion), the lowest since 1996, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The figure narrowed 74.7 percent in December from a year earlier to 303.5 billion yen. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 71 percent decline.

The euro touched an eight-week high on speculation Greece is making progress on measures to secure international aid. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is scheduled to meet the heads of three political parties in Athens today.

Greece’s Papademos met yesterday for “constructive” talks with Charles Dallara, managing director of the International Institute of Finance, which has negotiated the terms of a debt- swap deal with private bond holders, and Deutsche Bank AG Chairman, according to an IIF statement. The prime minister also held an unscheduled meeting late yesterday with the so-called troika, comprising the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) bailout.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.3240-$1.3265.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.5880-$1.5900.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, showed new week’s high.

The US calendar starts at 1200GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly mortgage applications data. There is little else on the agenda

until 1530GMT, when the EIA Wkly Crude Oil Stocks numbers are released. At 1540GMT, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks to the Bishop Ranch Forum on "The Federal Reserve and the Economic Recovery," in San Ramon, Calif. Germany comes to market Weds, with the sale of E4 billion 5-year BOBLs. US issuance is slated for later in the day, with the $32 billion 10-Year Note auction.

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark index trading near a five month high, as investors await the outcome of Greek bailout talks amid warnings Europe’s crisis threatens global demand.

Nikkei 225 8,917.52 -11.68 -0.13%

Hang Seng 20,699.19 -10.75 -0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,274.2 -21.79 -0.51%

Shanghai Composite 2,291.9 -39.23 -1.68%

In Tokyo, Japan Tobacco rose 5.7% after lifting its full-year net profit forecast, while Dainippon Screen Manufacturing dropped 6.5% after lowering its fiscal year net profit view.

A similar pattern was evident in Sydney with National Australia Bank shares sliding 3.9% on below-view first quarter earnings, while Transurban added 0.1% after reporting a strong first-half profit.

Car makers fell in Shanghai after SAIC Motor posted an 8.5% on-year decline in January vehicle sales. SAIC Motor fell 1.4% and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile slipped 3.4%.

European stocks declined for a second straight day as Greek talks on measures needed to get a second bailout continued and China said industrial-output growth is likely to slow.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is convening the nation’s political leaders to seek consensus on the cuts required for another European Union-led bailout. Officials are working on the final draft of the document listing the budget and structural measures required to receive international funding, a government official said.

FTSE 100 5,890.26 -1.94 -0.03%, CAC 40  3,411.54 +6.27 +0.18%, DAX 6,754.2 -10.63 -0.16%

BMW, the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars, slid 2.7 percent to 68.82 euros, snapping a five-day advance, and Renault SA retreated 1.3 percent to 36.58 euros.

Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company, fell 2.3 percent to 3,854 pence and Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. dropped 3 percent to 700 pence.

Automakers and mining companies were the two worst performing group of 19 industries in the Stoxx 600 today.

Swatch declined 4.2 percent to 397.40 Swiss francs after reporting 2011 operating profit of 1.61 billion francs ($1.75 billion), missing the average projection in a survey of 1.67 billion francs.

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest level since May 2008, as Greece made progress on measures to secure international aid.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos postponed a meeting with heads of the political parties supporting his caretaker government a second time in as many days as the government and international creditors haggled over terms to secure a second aid package. Papademos will meet with the leaders in Athens tomorrow, instead of tonight as previously scheduled, a spokeswoman for his office said. In the U.S., consumer borrowing rose more than forecast in December.

Dow 12,878.20 +33.07 +0.26%, Nasdaq 2,904.08 +2.09 +0.07%, S&P 500 1,347.05 +2.72 +0.20%

McDonald’s added 1.4 percent, the most in the Dow, to $100.91. It may say tomorrow that sales at global stores open at least 13 months gained 5.8 percent in January, according to the average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Yum gained 2.6 percent to $64.85. The company, with about 18,800 restaurants outside the U.S., said fourth-quarter sales at stores open at least 12 months grew 21 percent in China. Yum said it opened a record 656 stores last year in the Asian nation, where it gets more than 40 percent of its revenue.

Anadarko climbed 5.2 percent to $87.21. Output rose 12 percent to the equivalent of 683,000 barrels of oil a day during the last three months of 2011, The Woodlands, Texas-based company said. Sales volumes climbed to 63 million barrels at an average price of $104.82 a barrel of oil and condensate, more than the $98 estimate from Raymond James & Associates Inc.

Becton Dickinson & Co. slipped 3.8 percent to $77.51. The maker of medical devices and supplies cut its forecast for 2012 to no more than $5.70 a share, below an earlier projection of as much as $5.85 and the average analyst estimate of $5.80.

Resistance 3 : $1.3360 (high of the European session on Dec 12)

Resistance 2 : $1.3230 (resistance line from Feb 6)

Resistance 1 : $1.3270 (session high)

The current price: $1.3255

Support 1 : $1.3230 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3195 (Feb 2 low)

Support 3 : $1.3150 (support line from Feb 6)

Change % Change Last

Oil $98.66 +0.25 +0.25%

Gold $1,748.10 -0.30 -0.02%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,917.52 -11,68 -0,13%

Hang Seng 20,699.19 -10,75 -0,05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,274.2 -21,79 -0,51%

Shanghai Composite -1,68 -39,23 2,291.9%

FTSE 100 5,890.26 -1.94 -0.03%

CAC 40  3,411.54 +6.27 +0.18%

DAX 6,754.2 -10.63 -0.16%

Dow 12,878.20 +33.07 +0.26%

Nasdaq 2,904.08 +2.09 +0.07%

S&P 500 1,347.05 +2.72 +0.20%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 47.0 47.6

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 44.4

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate January 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance December 15.1 14.1

13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 200 192

15:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 03/02/12 +4.2

21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q IV quarter +0.2% +0.4%

21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate IV quarter 6.6% 6.5%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders December +14.8% -4.3%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y December +12.5%