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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-02-2012.
The euro pared gains after approaching a two-month high against the dollar. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won approval from parliament yesterday for austerity measures needed to receive a second aid package, which euro-area finance ministers must decide whether to release when they meet Feb. 15. The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts, including the New Zealand dollar and South Africa’s rand, as stocks and commodities rose before reports forecast to show strong U.S. economic growth.
The yen fell against most of its major peers as Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized 2.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter amid slumping exports that undermined a recovery from last year’s record earthquake. The report underscores pressure on Bank of Japan officials meeting today and tomorrow to consider more monetary easing as gains in the yen worsen losses for exporting companies such as Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp. Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi reiterated at a parliamentary budget committee session in Tokyo that he’ll act on excessive and speculative moves in the currency. Japan spent 14.3 trillion yen ($185 billion) in intervention operations last year to stem gains in the currency as it rose to postwar records against the dollar, hurting the nation’s exporters.
European stocks advanced the most in more than a week after Greek lawmakers approved austerity measures needed to get the financial rescue the nation seeks. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won parliamentary approval for the spending cuts after rioters protesting the measures battled police and set fire to buildings in downtown Athens. A total of 199 lawmakers voted for and 74 against the austerity plans.
Germany sold 3.01 billion euros of six-month bills at an average yield of 0.0761 percent, up from a negative yield at a sale on Jan. 9. Italy’s borrowing costs fell at a debt auction today. The Rome-based Treasury sold 8.5 billion euros of 365-day bills and 3.5 billion euros of 127-day bills at rates lower than in the previous sales.
National benchmark indexes climbed in 16 of the 18 western- European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.9 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX Index rose 0.7 percent.
A gauge of mining shares rallied 1.5 percent for the best performance on the Stoxx 600 as copper rebounded from the biggest drop in a month. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining companies, added 2 percent to 3,845.5 pence and 1.2 percent to 2,082.5 pence, respectively. Anglo American Plc added 2.6 percent to 2,817 pence.
Cable & Wireless Worldwide surged 45 percent to 28.54 pence after Vodafone, the world’s largest mobile-phone company, said it is in an early stage of evaluating a potential bid for the company. An offer, if made, may be in cash, Vodafone said.
National Bank of Greece jumped 9 percent to 2.92 euros, extending its gains this year to 80 percent. Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest lender, climbed 1.6 percent to 2.09 euros. UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, rose 1.6 percent to 12.93 Swiss francs. Lloyds added 2.3 percent to 35.30 pence.
Banks in France fell after the government ended a ban on short-selling in the stocks 10 banks and insurance companies, the country’s markets regulator said today. Credit Agricole SA fell 3.6 percent to 5.13 euros and BNP Paribas SA dropped 2.1 percent to 34.33 euros. Societe Generale SA slid 2.2 percent to 22.74 euros.
U.S. stocks rose, after the first weekly loss for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in 2012, as Greece approved austerity plans to secure rescue funds.
Global stocks gained today as Germany and the European Commission welcomed Greek approval of the austerity steps demanded for a financial lifeline, suggesting euro finance chiefs will pull Greece back from the brink when they meet in two days. The Greek parliament’s backing “is a crucial step forward toward the adoption of the second program,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said.
Dow 12,843.12 +41.89 +0.33%, Nasdaq 2,920.58 +16.70 +0.58%, S&P 500 1,348.37 +5.73 +0.43%
Bank of America (ВАС) rose 2 percent to $8.24. Citigroup climbed 1.2 percent to $33.33.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gained 0.4 percent to $114.61. The first-quarter profit estimate for the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets was raised 21 percent at International Strategy & Investment Group Inc., after an oil discovery near Angola boosted the value of one of the firm’s investments.
Apple added 1 percent to $498.11, after rallying for four straight weeks. On Jan. 24, the largest technology company reported quarterly profit that more than doubled.
Chesapeake added 1.6 percent to $22.48. The sales will help the company reduce debt and fund its drilling operations as it faces gas prices that hit a 10-year low in New York last month.
Gold is rising against the backdrop of positive news from Greece, where the Parliament on Monday night approved a loan agreement with international lenders, according to the auction.
The Greek parliament approved a medium-term economic program, which includes budgetary austerity, including the reduction of salaries and pensions. This program is a condition for granting aid package the EU and the IMF in the amount of 130 billion euros.
The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1733.0 dollars per ounce.
Budget will reduce deficit by $4T by 2022.
Admin's budget shows -$1.33T deficit for FY12 and -$901B for FY13.
Oil climbed after the Greek parliament’s approval of an austerity plan bolstered chances for a solution to Europe’s debt crisis and on increasing concern that Iranian crude supplies will be disrupted.
Futures rose as much as 2 percent, the euro strengthened and the global equity market advanced after passage of the package needed for 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) in aid. Crude may extend gains after companies controlling more than 100 supertankers said they would stop loading cargoes from Iran, tightening sanctions on OPEC’s second-biggest producer.
Overseas Shipholding Group said Feb. 10 the pool of 45 supertankers from seven owners in which its carriers trade will no longer call at Iran. Nova Tankers A/S and Frontline Ltd., with a combined 93 vessels, said Feb. 9 and Feb. 11 they won’t ship crude from the Persian Gulf nation.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Feb. 11 he will unveil “major nuclear accomplishments” in coming days, state- run Press TV reported. Iran has threatened to block shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for about 20 percent of the world’s globally traded oil.
Crude for March delivery increased to $100.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 17 percent from a year ago.
Brent oil for March settlement rose 90 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $118.21 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Resistance 3:1400 (psychological level)
Resistance 2:1373 (high of 2011)
Resistance 1:1352 (session high, Feb 9 high, July'2011 high)
Current price: 1345,25
Resistance 1:1330 (session low)
Resistance 2:1330 (Feb 6-7 lows, earlier resistance, Jan 26 high)
Resistance 3:1317 (Feb 2 low)
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300
AUD/USD $1.0720, $1.0830, $1.0850
GBP/USD $1.5750, $1.5920
USD/JPY Y77.00, Y77.75
EUR/JPY Y103.00
Data:
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m January +0.3% +0.2% 0.0%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y January -2.3% -2.2% -2.4%
The euro rose against the dollar after Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won approval from parliament for austerity measures needed to receive a second aid package.
Greece’s vote on spending cuts puts the spotlight on a meeting of euro-area finance ministers, who must decide whether to release the international rescue.
EUR/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,3230-$ 1,3280.
GBP/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,5775-$ 1,5825.
USD/JPY: during european session the pair was limited Y77,50-Y77,80.
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5990/6000, $1.5950, $1.5850/60
Bids $1.5730/20, $1.5700, $1.5650/40
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3350, $1.3320/30, $1.3290
Bids $1.3205/00, $1.3145, $1.3110/00
Resistance 3: Y78.20 (area of high of December and January)
Resistance 2: Y78.10 (МА (200) for D1)
Resistance 1: Y77.80 (Feb 10 high)
Current price: Y77.44
Support 1:Y77.50 (Feb 10 low)
Support 2:Y77.10 (intraday low on Feb 9)
Support 3:Y76.70 (Feb 7 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9230 (Feb 7 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200 (Feb 10 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9160 (session high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9122
Support 1: Chf0.9090 (Feb 9 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)
Support 3: Chf0.8950 (Nov 11 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5880 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5850 (Feb 10 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5820 (area of the top border of the down channel from Feb 8)
Current price: $1.5812
Support 1 : $1.5760 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5730 (Feb 6 and 10 lows)
Support 3 : $1.5700 (Feb 1 low and the bottom border of the down channel from Feb 8)
Resistance 3 : $1.3460 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (МА (100) for D1, Feb 9 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3280 (session high)
Current price: $1.3260
Support 1 : $1.3230 (low of european session)
Support 2 : $1.3200 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.3170/50 (Feb 10 low, closing price of the last week)
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300
AUD/USD $1.0720, $1.0830, $1.0850
GBP/USD $1.5750, $1.5920
USD/JPY Y77.00, Y77.75
EUR/JPY Y103.00
The euro-group finance ministers meeting on February 15 has been pointed to be the deadline as the “troika” could decide whether to release the next tranche of the bailout package, vital to honour the debt rollover expiring on March 20. M.Mohi-uddin, Managing Director of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS, remarks that a positive outcome from Greece will be supportive of the shared currency, at least until the second LTRO, due on February 29. So, what lies beyond the end of February? The expert remains conservative on the euro, as the ECB has hinted the likelihood of further rate cuts if the economic conditions in the bloc worsen, spilling their effects over the prices. Reinforcing the above, members of the euro zone already embarked in more austerity measures could see their economic growth undermined in the upcoming quarters and also political risks are looming with Greece and France holding elections in the next months. All in all, a not-so-cheerful panorama is lying ahead for the euro. “As a result we continue to see the euro ending the year at 1.15 against the dollar”, the analyst stressed.
Carol Hamer, analyst at Charmer Charts, would expect the cross to decline as shown by overbought readings in both short and medium tem charts, with a possible visit to the 1.0620 support area.
“Resistance remains 1.0795 through 1.0820 and we would still be sellers in this band…”, she concluded.
The yen declined against the euro and other major peers after data showed its gross domestic product shrank by more than forecast as exports slumped, fanning speculation officials may act to weaken the yen.
The report underscores pressure on Bank of Japan officials meeting today and tomorrow to consider more monetary easing as gains in the yen worsen losses for companies from Sony Corp. to Panasonic Corp.
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi reiterated at a parliamentary budget committee session in Tokyo that he’ll act on excessive and speculative moves in the currency. Japan spent 14.3 trillion yen ($184 billion) in intervention operations last year to stem gains in the currency as it rose to postwar records against the dollar, hurting the nation’s exporters.
The 17-nation euro rose versus 10 of its 16 major counterparts as Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won parliamentary approval for austerity measures to secure an international bailout after rioters protesting the measures battled police and set fire to buildings in downtown Athens. A total of 199 lawmakers voted in favor and 74 against, Parliament Speaker Filippos Petsalnikos said in remarks carried live on state-run Vouli TV.
Australia’s dollar gained before a report forecast to show U.S. retail sales rose. The so-called Aussie climbed against the yen after data showed that Australian home-loan approvals rose in December.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y77.50-Y77.80.
Although a busy week on the data front, Monday is off to a slow start. At 0930GMT, the Bank Of England releases the Q4 "Project Merlin" bank lending data. At 1100GMT, the OECD December leading indicator will hit the screens.
On Monday the euro rose, offsetting previously incurred losses against the background of EU President Van Rompuy and EU Commissioner for Greece of possible progress in talks on Greek debt. EU President said that "the crisis is not yet complete, but the worst part is over," adding that "the problem of U.S. debt on average more serious than in the euro area and euro area deficit is not dramatic". Previously, the single currency fell against major currencies of the partner, after it became known that the Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos appealed to the Ministry of Finance to prepare a report on options for action in case of default in the country.
On Tuesday the euro rose to the highest in eight weeks against the dollar as Greek officials and creditors worked on the final draft of an agreement on budget and structural measures needed to free up a second aid package. The 17-nation currency strengthened as Prime Minister Lucas Papademos prepared to meet with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches to the document. The yen fell against all its major counterparts as implied volatility of three-month options for Group of Seven currencies fell to almost a 10-month low, according to the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index. A decrease makes investments in currencies with higher benchmark lending rates more attractive as the risk in such trades is that market moves will erase profits.
On Wednesday the euro fluctuated against the dollar amid speculation Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and coalition party leaders will fail to agree on terms required for a bailout. Greece’s Papademos negotiated with political leaders in Athens after delaying the gathering for a second time in as many days. He met officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout. The yen fell against the majority of its major peers as Japan’s current-account surplus slid to a 15- year low in 2011. The yen dropped after the Finance Ministry in Tokyo said Japan’s current-account surplus shrank 44 percent in 2011 from the previous year to 9.63 trillion yen ($125 billion), the lowest since 1996. Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive as a haven because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.
On Thursday the euro reached a two-month high against the dollar and the yen after Greek political leaders said they had reached an agreement on austerity measures needed to obtain a bailout. The 17-nation currency strengthened against all but one of its most-traded counterparts after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said it would lower the collateral requirements to access the next three-year loan auction later this month. The pound rose against the dollar after the Bank of England said it would increase its bond-buying program by less than some economists forecast. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the target for bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($79.3 billion) to 325 billion pounds, more than a quarter of current outstanding gilts.
On Friday the euro fell from a two-month high against the dollar as European finance ministers withheld an aid package necessary to prevent the Greek economy from collapsing. The shared European currency slid from the highest since December against the yen after the leader of one of the Greek government’s supporting parties said he couldn’t back an austerity accord needed to secure the bailout. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said his euro- area counterparts refused to approve a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) aid package because the government fell short of austerity demands. George Karatzaferis, the leader of Greece’s Laos party, said he couldn’t support an accord on cuts in its present form. The Swiss franc rose in a while in January, consumer price inflation registered a fourth consecutive decline, which became at the same time the highest since October 2009, as the high rate of the franc caused the fall in the value of goods imported into the country. The cost of imported consumer goods to Switzerland fell by 1.8% m/m and 3.2% y/y.
Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)
Resistance 2: Y78.30 (Jan 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y77.80 (Feb 10 high)
The current price: Y77.58
Support 1: Y77.50 (Feb 10 low)
Support 2: Y77.10 (low of the European session on Feb 9)
Support 3: Y76.70 (Feb 8 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5885 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5850 (Feb 10 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5795 (session high)
The current price: $1.5788
Support 1 : $1.5755 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5730 (Feb 6-10 low)
Support 3 : $1.5705 (Feb 1 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3290 (Feb 10 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3260 (session high)
The current price: $1.3252
Support 1 : $1.3205 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3155 (Feb 10 low)
Support 3 : $1.3090 (Feb 7 low)
00:30 Australia Home Loans December +1.4% +1.9%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m January +0.3% +0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y January -2.3% -2.2%
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m January +0.2%
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y January +2.9%
21:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
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