Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-02-2012.

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15.02.2012
19:47
FOMC Minutes: "The process of economic recovery is becoming more sustainable"

  • Reinvestment will be terminated before the rate hike

  • Departmental sales of securities will begin after the first rate increase

  • The optimal rate of monetary policy in 2012 include the purchase of assets

  • The risks for GDP are bearish nature of the

  • The risks of inflation expectations are balanced

  • In the case of deteriorating economic conditions may increase the program of asset purchases

  • We can not say about the future pace of easing in credit conditions

  • Departmental sales of securities are unlikely to begin before 2015

  • Sales of securities SOMA completed in 3-5 years

  • Prospects for recovery of the real estate market look dim

  • In the coming quarters is expected to moderate economic growth and a gradual decline in unemployment

  • In 2012/13 years expected to accelerate the pace of GDP growth

  • At the end of 2013 unemployment will still be at a high level

  • Export growth will be limited by the slow recovery of world economy

19:30
American focus: euro fell

The euro declined after reaching a two-month high versus the yen as Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos accused some euro-area nations of wanting the Greece to leave the union. The 17-nation currency fell against the dollar after European policy makers delayed a decision on the nation’s bailout scheduled for today. The euro earlier advanced after China said it will help tackle Europe’s debt crisis. Venizelos leveled the accusation after a decision slated for tonight on aid totaling 130 billion euros ($170 billion) was postponed until Feb. 20 at the earliest. China will invest in Europe’s bailout funds and maintain its holdings of the region’s assets, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today in Beijing. With the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves of $3.18 trillion, the Asian nation has previously signaled it wants to diversify the holdings away from dollar-denominated assets.

The dollar remained lower against its higher-yielding counterparts as manufacturing in the New York region expanded in February at the fastest pace since June 2010.

18:53
European stocks close:

European stocks rose as China said it will help resolve the region’s debt crisis and companies from BNP Paribas SA to Heineken NV reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.

China offered to invest in Europe’s bailout funds and sustain its holdings of euro assets. The commitment offers an incentive to European finance ministers, who are increasing pressure on Greece to deliver budget cuts in exchange for a second bailout.

Euro-area finance ministers postponed a decision slated for tonight on Greek aid totaling 130 billion euros ($171 billion) until at least Feb. 20 and possibly until after a full-time government emerges from the nation’s elections later this year. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that Europe’s wealthier countries are “playing with fire” by toying with the idea of expelling it from the euro area.

Europe’s economy shrank less than economists forecast in the fourth quarter after better-than-predicted performance in Germany and France. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area fell 0.3 percent from the prior three months, the first drop since the second quarter of 2009, the European Union’s statistics office said today.

National benchmark indexes gained in 12 of the 18 western European markets today. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX rose 0.4 percent each, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1 percent.

BNP Paribas rallied 4.1 percent to 34.89 euros as fourth- quarter net income declined to 765 million euros from 1.55 billion euros a year earlier. Societe Generale SA rose 2.2 percent to 22.38 euros after three days of losses. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA rallied 11 percent to 33.64 euro cents and UniCredit SpA climbed 2.2 percent to 4.16 euros.

Heineken advanced 3.7 percent to 37.90 euros after the brewer reported increased annual profit and unveiled new cost- saving targets. Earnings before interest and taxes in 2011 rose 2.8 percent to 2.7 billion euros, excluding some one-time items, the Amsterdam-based maker of Amstel said.

TUI AG, the owner of Europe’s largest travel company, rose 3.5 percent to 6.43 euros after saying it will sell a stake in Hapag-Lloyd and may dispose of its remaining holding in the shipper in an initial public offering.

Puma SE rose 3.1 percent to 247.25 euros after Europe’s second-largest sporting goods maker reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates and its own projection and forecast growth in sales and earnings in each of the next two years.

18:01
Most U.S. stocks rose

Most U.S. stocks rose as optimism about China getting more involved in a solution for Europe’s sovereign debt crisis tempered concern that officials will delay Greece’s second bailout.

Production at U.S. factories increased in January, reflecting gains in demand for U.S.-made automobiles and business equipment that may keep manufacturing at the forefront of the expansion. Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in February at the fastest pace since June 2010. The Federal Reserve today releases minutes of its last meeting.

Dow 12,799.00 -79.28 -0.62%, Nasdaq 2,931.91 +0.08 +0.00%, S&P 500 1,347.48 -3.02 -0.22%

Comcast rallied 5.2 percent to $28.65. Comcast also increased its annual dividend 44 percent to 65 cents a share. Fourth-quarter profit rose more than analysts estimated and video-customer losses narrowed for the fifth straight period.

Kellogg climbed 5.9 percent to $53.25. The $2.7 billion cash purchase gives Kellogg the world’s second-largest maker of savory snacks, with more than $1.5 billion in sales in 140 countries. Kellogg Chief Executive Officer John Bryant said the company is working to boost its global snacks business, which includes Cheez-It, Townhouse crackers and Keebler.

Dean Foods Co. soared 14 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $12.39. The biggest U.S. milk processor reported lower raw- milk costs at its fresh dairy business. Average raw-milk costs in the fourth quarter were 12 percent lower than in the previous quarter, the Dallas-based company said in a statement today. The Fresh Dairy Direct segment is Dean’s biggest unit by sales.

Zynga Inc. tumbled 13 percent to $12.47. The biggest developer of games for Facebook Inc.’s site slumped after product-development costs weighed on profit.

17:34
Gold rose

Gold is rising, while investors wait for news on the situation in Greece and the euro-zone economy. On Wednesday it was announced that two leaders of the ruling coalition parties, the Greek EU sent a written assurance to comply with loan agreements with the EU. At the same time, according to unofficial information, the media, despite the guarantees, the new international financial support for Greece's 130 billion euro, which must be provided before March 20, some may be delayed until April.

Support markets have statistical data from the eurozone, which, despite the weak figures were better than analysts' forecasts. Thus, Germany's GDP, according to preliminary estimates, declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 0.2% compared with the third quarter, but rose 3% year on year. The data were significantly better than analysts' expectations, the projected decrease in GDP by 0.3% q/q and increased by only 2% year. The total GDP and the euro area and EU in the fourth quarter of 2011 decreased by 0.3% in quarterly terms. Analysts had expected a decline rate of 0.4% compared with the third quarter.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1737.0 dollars per ounce.

16:39
Oil rose

Oil maintained gains after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles of crude and distillates declined. Distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 2.87 million barrels to 143.7 million. Stockpiles were forecast to fall 1.1 million barrels. Inventories of crude oil declined 171,000 barrels to 339.1 million, the department said. Supplies were forecast to grow 1.5 million barrels.

Futures also rose after a report that Iran had cut oil shipments to six European countries and as China pledged to help resolve Europe’s debt crisis.

Oil for March delivery rose to $102.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for April settlement gained $1.23 to $118.58 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

15:31
U.S.: EIA Crude Oil Stocks change , 10.02.2012 -0.2
15:00
U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, February 29 (forecast 26)
14:45
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3150, $1.3210, $1.3220, $1.3230, $1.3300, $1.3350

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0725, $1.0800 

USD/JPY Y77.75, Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.50

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

NZD/USD Nz$0.8315

 

14:17
U.S.: Capacity Utilization, January 78.5% (forecast 78.6%)
14:16
U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), January 0.0% (forecast +0.7%)
14:14
U.S.: Net Long-term TIC Flows , December 17.9
14:13
U.S.: Total Net TIC Flows, December 87.1 (forecast 62.3)
13:36
European session: the euro fell

Data:

06:30 France GDP, q/q IV quarter +0.3% -0.2% +0.2%

06:30 France GDP, Y/Y IV quarter +1.5% +1.1% +1.4%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings 0

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count January 1.2 3.3 6.9

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate January 5.0% 5.1% 5.0%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate December 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y January +1.9% +1.8% +2.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y January +1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) IV quarter +0.1% -0.4% -0.3%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) IV quarter +1.3% +0.7% +0.7%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 6.1 4.9 9.7

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks 0

10:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report Quarter I

 

The euro declined  amid speculation a Greek aid package could be delayed until after April elections.

The common curency erased gains against the dollar after German government spokesman Steffen Seibert refuted speculation the nation’s policy makers had resigned themselves to Greek insolvency.

 

EUR/USD: the pair showed high in $1,3190 area then decreased.

 

 

GBP/USD: the pair showed high in $1,5730 area then decreased.

USD/JPY: the pair was limited Y78,30-Y78,65.


13:34
U.S.: NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index , February 19.5 (forecast 14.3)
13:20
The euro set new session low versus dollar on report that Greek bailout may be delayed.
12:56
Orders

 

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5850/60, $1.5845/50, $1.5825/30, $1.5770, $1.5740/50, $1.5735/40

Bids $1.5680/70, $1.5650/40, $1.5555/50

 

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300, $1.3255/60, $1.3225/30, $1.3195/00

Bids $1.3110/00, $1.3055/50, $1.3030/25

 

12:30
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.50 (high of October)

Resistance 2: Y79.00 (high of November)

Resistance 1: Y78.70 (session high)

Current price: Y78.55

Support 1:Y78.30 (session low)

Support 2:Y77.50 (Feb 10 high)

Support 3:Y77.35 (session low)


 

12:26
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (МА (200) for Н4)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9260 (Feb 6 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9230 (Feb 7 high)

Current price: Chf0.9177

Support 1: Chf0.9140/50 (session low, Feb 14 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9090 (Feb 9 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9060 (low of December)


 

12:07
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.5820 (Feb 13 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5770 (Feb 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (area of the top border of the down channel from Feb 8 and session high)

Current price: $1.5699

Support 1 : $1.5670 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5640 (Jan 27 and Feb 14 lows, the bottom border of the down channel from Feb 8)

Support 3 : $1.5580 (38,2 % FIBO $1.5230-$ 1.5930)


 

11:51
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.3280 (Feb 13 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3220 (Feb 14 high, resistance line from Feb 9)

Resistance 1 : $1.3190 (session high)

Current price: $1.3162

Support 1 : $1.3145 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3080 (Feb 14 low)

Support 3 : $1.3020 (Feb 6 and 1 lows)


 

10:57
BOE report shows 2-Yr inflation pushing closer to target after QE boost

  • inflation Seen 1.8% At 2-Year Point Based On Mkt Rates, stg325bn QE

  • inflation Seen At 1.9% In 3 Years Based On Mkt Rates, Stg325bn QE
  • reports Shows UK Growth Weak In Near Term, Recovering In H2
  • says Euro Zone Crisis Still Poses 'Substantial Challenges'
  • real Incomes Rise, Monetary Stimulus Seen Aiding Recovery In H2
  • implied Market Rates Unchanged Until Q4 2013; Seen At 0.9 By End '14

10:25
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3150, $1.3210, $1.3220, $1.3230, $1.3300, $1.3350

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0725, $1.0800 

USD/JPY Y77.75, Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.50

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

NZD/USD Nz$0.8315

 

10:01
Eurozone: GDP (YoY), IV quarter +0.7% (forecast +0.7%)
10:00
Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), IV quarter -0.3% (forecast -0.4%)
10:00
Eurozone: Trade Balance s.a., December 9.7 (forecast 4.9)
09:54
Recommendations on pair AUD/USD from Charmer Charts

Although the good momentum in the cross, C.Harmer, analyst at Charmer Charts, remarks that “remains looking under pressure and we do still look for weakness down to minimum target of 1.0620 possible 1.0570 over the next few sessions”. At the same time, she added that further downside beyond 1.0570 would bring 1.0480 in the longer term.

09:31
United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , January +2.0% (forecast +1.8%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, January 2.0% (forecast 1.9%)
09:30
United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, December 8.4% (forecast 8.4%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Claimant Count Rate, January 5.0% (forecast 5.1%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Claimant count , January 6.9 (forecast 3.3)
09:01
Asian session: The euro rose to its highest level in two months

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February


The euro rose to its highest level in two months against the yen after the People’s Bank of China said the nation will participate in resolving Europe’s debt crisis, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. The 17-nation euro also gained against the dollar after PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China can provide help via avenues including the central bank and its sovereign wealth fund.

Gains in the euro were limited before European finance ministers discuss a second bailout for Greece in a teleconference scheduled after they canceled a meeting planned for today. Finance ministers will meet on Feb. 20, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday.

The leaders of Greece’s two biggest political parties, New Democracy’s Antonis Samaras and Pasok’s George Papandreou, will send written commitments today to the so-called troika to stand by austerity measures, a government official said. The assurance to the troika -- the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank -- was a condition of international aid.

The yen dropped versus all of its major peers after new easing steps by the Bank of Japan yesterday added to signs officials are acting to protect the domestic economy from currency strength.

The dollar declined as Asian stocks rose.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain, corrected after yesterday's falling.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain fixed above $1.5700.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, updated new week’s high.


Another heavy calendar on Wednesday, European growth data continues at 0700GMT, with the release of German Q4 data. UK labour data is expected at 0930 GMT. The Markit reports for REC/KPMG showed some growth in both temporary/contract work and permanent placements in December followed by a marked acceleration in jobs growth in January. This tallies with the pick-up in the activity data. The three-monthly ILO data will still show a marked rise in unemployment, as the outturn for the first two months is known (bar revisions), but claimant count jobless is expected to show another minimal rise and the data overall should provide evidence the deterioration in the labour market is easing. At 1030GMT, the BOE releases its Quarterly Inflation report.

08:39
Forex: Tuesday’s review


Yesterday the
euro fell against the dollar amid concerns of investors regarding the provision of Greece second package of financial assistance. Previously, support for the single currency had data on economic expectations in the euro area and in Germany, as well as successful placement of debt securities of the Governments of Italy and Spain. In particular, the index of economic expectations of the Center for European economy (ZEW) in the euro zone rose in February compared with January, by 24.4 points - down to minus 8.1 points. This indicator of investor confidence in the economy of Germany in February rose by 27.0 points to 5.4 points. The indicator was plus first time since May 2011. These data were significantly better than forecasts of analysts who had expected an average growth rate for Germany to minus 15 points. However, the positive statistics and successful debt auctions failed for a long time to return to the growth of European currency: the evening it became cheaper again in anticipation of meeting the working group of finance ministers in the eurozone. It is expected that it was at this meeting european politics take a key decision - whether or not to unlock the second package of financial aid to Greece. Formally, the decision should be made the Eurogroup, which will meet on Wednesday, after a meeting of the working group. Earlier, the British newspaper Financial Times reported that the February 15  european politics may defer a decision on financial help Greece, asking her government to provide more detailed explanations of how they intend to implement cost-saving measures. At the beginning of the day the single currency was under pressure because of the decision by Moody's downgrade ratings of Italy, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta, as well as to reduce the forecast for first-class rating "AAA" France, Britain and Austria.

The yen fell after the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy by increasing the program of buying assets. Bank of Japan eased monetary policy on Tuesday, expanding the purchase of the assets of 10 trillion yen (130 billion dollars) to 65 trillion yen due to the increasing political pressure for more decisive action to curb deflation and facilitate the economic impact of a strong national currency. Central Bank also said that he sees the purpose of establishing its policy on the level of consumer inflation of 1 percent.


EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.3100.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased on a floor of a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair gain on a figure.


Another heavy calendar on Wednesday, European growth data continues at 0700GMT, with the release of German Q4 data. UK labour data is expected at 0930 GMT. The Markit reports for REC/KPMG showed some growth in both temporary/contract work and permanent placements in December followed by a marked acceleration in jobs growth in January. This tallies with the pick-up in the activity data. The three-monthly ILO data will still show a marked rise in unemployment, as the outturn for the first two months is known (bar revisions), but claimant count jobless is expected to show another minimal rise and the data overall should provide evidence the deterioration in the labour market is easing. At 1030GMT, the BOE releases its Quarterly Inflation report.

07:47
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.55 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.65 (session high)

The current price: Y78.48

Support 1: Y78.15 (middle line from Feb 3)

Support 2: Y77.75 (support line from Feb 3)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)


07:22
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9260 (Feb 6 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9230 (Feb 14 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9210 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9168

Support 1: Chf0.9140 (Feb 14 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9100 (Feb 13 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9085 (Feb 9 low)


06:43
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3285 (Feb 13 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3215 (Feb 14 high)

The current price: $1.3171

Support 1 : $1.3110 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3080 (Feb 14 low)

Support 3 : $1.3030 (Feb 6 low)


06:30
France: GDP, Y/Y, IV quarter +1.4% (forecast +1.1%)
06:30
France: GDP, q/q, IV quarter +0.2% (forecast -0.2%)
06:20
Commodities. Daily history for Feb 14'2012:

Change % Change Last

 

Oil $101.12 +0.38 +0.38%

Gold $1,721.30 +3.60 +0.21%

06:19
Stocks. Daily history for Feb 14'2012:

Change % Change Last

 

Nikkei 225 9,052.07 +52.89 +0.59%

Hang Seng 20,898.36 +10.96 +0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,242.83 -42.31 -0.99%

Shanghai Composite 2,344.77 -7.08 -0.30%

FTSE 100 5,905.7 +53.31 +0.91%

CAC 40 3,384.55 +11.41 +0.34%

DAX 6,738.47 +45.51 +0.68%

Dow 12,878.28 +4.24 +0.03%

Nasdaq 2,931.83 +0.44 +0.02%

S&P 500 1,350.50 -1.27 -0.09%

06:18
Currencies. Daily history for Feb 14'2012:

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3134 -0,39%

GBP/USD $1,5690 -0,48%

USD/CHF Chf0,9193 +0,32%

USD/JPY Y78,44 +1,12%

EUR/JPY Y103,00 +0,70%

GBP/JPY Y123,07 +0,65%

AUD/USD $1,0690 -0,37%

NZD/USD $0,8335 -0,04%

USD/CAD C$0,9988 -0,05%

06:01
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Feb 15'2012:

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

06:30 France GDP, q/q IV quarter +0.3% -0.2%

06:30 France GDP, Y/Y IV quarter +1.5% +1.1%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings 0

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count January 1.2 3.3

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate January 5.0% 5.1%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate December 8.4% 8.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y January +1.9% +1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y January +1.9% 1.9%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) IV quarter +0.1% -0.4%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) IV quarter +1.3% +0.7%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 6.1 4.9

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks 0

10:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report Quarter I

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index February 13.5 14.3

14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows December 59.8 62.3

14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows December 48.6

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) January +0.4% +0.7%

14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization January 78.1% 78.6%

15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index February 25 26

15:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 10.02.2012 +0.3

17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes 0

21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -2.3%

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