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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 20-02-2012.
World oil prices rise in anticipation of news from the Council of Ministers of Finance of the euro on financial aid to Greece, as well as against the termination of deliveries of raw Iran by the French and British companies. Investors optimistic on Monday awaiting news from the Euro Group to provide financial support for Greece, which will help to avoid the first in the history of the eurozone default. The second package of aid to Greece, is expected to be granted to 130 billion euros.
Some influence on the dynamics of quotations have news from Iran, suspended for the weekend supply of oil companies from France and the UK. Earlier on Monday, Iranian officials have threatened to expand the list of European countries, the supply of oil which will be terminated if Europe will continue to act against the country. Thus, the head of the National Oil Company Galebani Ahmad said that the sanctions from Iran can relate to Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands.
Oil for March delivery rose to $105.44 per barrel. Brent oil for April settlement rose 39 cents, or 0.33 percent, to $119.97 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold shows a lateral movement in anticipation of signing the agreement on assistance to Greece. The head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker before the meeting of finance ministers of the eurozone, which will examine the question of granting the second tranche of financial assistance to Greece, said that he hoped that today, February 20, will be reached any agreement on this issue. Juncker noted that Greece had fulfilled many of the preparatory actions that were required of her. The leader of the Eurogroup said that some questions remain about the extent to which private lenders will be involved in reducing the debt burden of Greece. At the same time at the meeting will discuss issues on the amount of financial assistance, which should not exceed 130 billion euros.
The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX is trading today in the range of $1733.6 - $1736.1 per ounce.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3350, $1.3320/30, $1.3300, $1.3280
Bids $1.3180, $1.3139, $1.3125/20, $1.3100/090
USD/JPY Y77.75
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3300, $1.3400
AUD/USD $1.0760, $1.0800
GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5750, $1.5900
The issue of private sector participation in providing assistance to Greece is still open
The volume of aid programs in Greece should not exceed 130 billion euros
Greece has satisfied the requirements that we wanted to
Nobody wants to Greece left of the euro area
Eurogroup will discuss the size of the 2nd program of assistance for Greece
The euro rose against the dollar on speculation European finance ministers will settle their remaining differences over a Greek bailout when they meet later today.
The common currency also strengthened versus the yen and the British pound.
Euro-area finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels to seek agreement on a 130 billion-euro Greek bailout. Talks on Greece’s second aid package in two years will aim to reconcile demands made on Greek politicians, a debt swap among private creditors and the role of the European Central Bank.
European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel want to wrest the common currency out of its crisis amid signs of improvement in the global economy. Focus has returned to Greece as the threat of economic collapse and exit from the euro has stoked officials’ concern such a scenario may provoke chaos. An agreement is crucial to fend off the region’s first sovereign default as Greece is due to pay off 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt on March 20.
The dollar dropped against most major peers on Chinese measures to sustain economic growth, damping demand for haven assets.
EUR/USD: the pair grown in $1,3260 area.
GBP/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,5840-$ 1,5880.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in Y79,50 area.
Resistance 3: Y81.50 (high of July)
Resistance 2: Y80.30 (high of August)
Resistance 1: Y79.90 (session high)
Current price: Y79.46
Support 1:Y79.30 (session low)
Support 2:Y78.80 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3:Y78.20 (Feb 15 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9165 (МА (200) for Н1, high of european session)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9140 (low of asian session)
Current price: Chf0.9110
Support 1: Chf0.9090 (Feb 9 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)
Support 3: Chf0.9000 (psychological level)
Resistance 3 : $1.6000 (psychological level)
Resistance 2 : $1.5930 (Feb 8 high, the top border of the upchannel from Feb 17)
Resistance 1 : $1.5880 (Feb 9 high, session high)
Current price: $1.5864
Support 1 : $1.5840 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5790 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.5740 (Feb 15 high)
Resistance 3 : $1.3460 (Dec 8 high) Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high) Resistance 1 : $1.3280 (Feb 13 high, the top border of the upchannel from Feb 17) Current price: $1.3268 Support 1 : $1.3220 (the bottom border of the upchannel from Feb 17) Support 2 : $1.3180 (session low) Support 3 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)
outlook for germany's economy noticeably brightened recently
- cyclical upswing forces could gain upper hand by 2q 2012
- monetary policy to continue to have very expansive impact in Germany
- Germany's banks have ample liquidity
- Germany's public deficit likely to remain at around 1% of GDP in 2012
- prospects for global economy have brightened recently but Eurozone economic activity is likely to remain sluggish in 2012
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) February -0.8% +4.1%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) February +0.4% +1.4%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index December 94.3 94.0
05:00 Japan Coincident Index December 93.2 93.6
The dollar dropped against most major peers as Asian shares climbed on Chinese measures to sustain economic growth, curbing demand for refuge assets. People’s Bank of China announced a cut to banks’ reserve requirements.
The euro rose for a third day against the greenback before European finance ministers meet to discuss a second aid package for Greece. Euro-area finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels to seek agreement on a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) Greek bailout. Talks on Greece’s second aid package in two years will aim to reconcile demands made on Greek politicians, a debt swap among private creditors, the role of the European Central Bank and concerns the measures won’t bear fruit.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on Feb. 17 expressed confidence that ministers will resolve open questions. Should they fail to back the bailout at the Brussels meeting, the issue could be pushed to the next European Union summit on March 1.
The yen dropped against 14 of its 16 major peers. A government report showed Japan’s exports fell in January as the currency traded near a record high and amid weaker global demand.
The trade deficit widened to 1.48 trillion yen ($19 billion) and shipments dropped 9.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a trade gap of 1.46 trillion yen and a 9.4 percent decline in exports. Standard and Poor’s today affirmed Japan’s sovereign-debt rating at AA- while maintaining a negative outlook and warning that a downgrade is likely if medium-term growth prospects weaken.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain, traded above $1.3200.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, updated new month’s high.
With US markets closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, there is a light DATA calendar Monday. At 0745GMT, the French manufacturing and service sector sentiment indices are released. Following on, at 0900GMT, the Italian industrial orders data for December is released. UK data is expected at 0930GMT and sees the release of the January CML Gross Mortgage Lending data. Back on the continent, at 1730GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is scheduled to speak on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis' at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.
On Monday the euro pared gains after approaching a two-month high against the dollar. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won approval from parliament for austerity measures needed to receive a second aid package, which euro-area finance ministers must decide whether to release when they meet Feb. 15. The yen fell against most of its major peers as Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized 2.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter amid slumping exports that undermined a recovery from last year’s record earthquake. The report underscores pressure on Bank of Japan officials meeting to consider more monetary easing as gains in the yen worsen losses for exporting companies such as Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp.
On Tuesday the euro fell against the dollar amid concerns of investors regarding the provision of Greece second package of financial assistance. Previously, support for the single currency had data on economic expectations in the euro area and in Germany, as well as successful placement of debt securities of the Governments of Italy and Spain. In particular, the index of economic expectations of the Center for European economy (ZEW) in the euro zone rose in February compared with January, by 24.4 points - down to minus 8.1 points. This indicator of investor confidence in the economy of Germany in February rose by 27.0 points to 5.4 points. The indicator was plus first time since May 2011.
On Wednesday the euro declined after reaching a two-month high versus the yen as Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos accused some euro-area nations of wanting the Greece to leave the union. The 17-nation currency fell against the dollar after European policy makers delayed a decision on the nation’s bailout scheduled for today. The euro earlier advanced after China said it will help tackle Europe’s debt crisis. Venizelos leveled the accusation after a decision slated for tonight on aid totaling 130 billion euros ($170 billion) was postponed until Feb. 20 at the earliest.
On Thursday the euro rose after German newspaper Die Welt reported that the European Central Bank is exchanging Greek bonds for new securities, bolstering speculation Greece will get its second bailout. The ECB is swapping its 50 billion-euro ($66 billion) Greek government bond holdings for new Greek bonds, Die Welt reported, citing unidentified central bank officials. The swap will be completed by Feb. 20, it said. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the report.
The dollar erased gains against a majority of its most- traded counterparts after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded by the fastest in four months and initial jobless claims fell to the lowest in four years.
On Friday The euro strengthened against most of its major counterparts on optimism European leaders will agree to release bailout funds for Greece on Feb. 20. The euro pared gains against the dollar as the Greek government drew up legislation that could be used to impose losses on investors who don’t support a debt swap. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos expressed optimism that an “agreement on Greece” can be reached at a Brussels meeting of euro-area finance ministers on Feb. 20. The pound gained 0.2 percent to $1.5829, extending its weekly advance to 0.4 percent. Sterling rose 0.8 percent to 125.77 yen after reaching 125.90, the strongest since Nov. 7. Sales including fuel climbed 0.9 percent from December, when they rose 0.6 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today, spurring speculation the U.K. economy will avoid a recession.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index set to equal its longest streak of weekly advances, after U.S. economic reports beat estimates and optimism increased that Greece will get a second debt bailout, boosting demand for riskier assets.
Nikkei 225 9,384.17 +146.07 +1.58%
Hang Seng 21,457.24 +179.96 +0.85%
S&P/ASX 200 4,195.88 +14.02 +0.34%
Shanghai Composite 2,357.18 +0.32 +0.01%
Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker by market value that generates 44 percent of its revenue in North America, rose 2.4 percent.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender, led financial companies higher.
Billabong International Ltd., a global surfwear maker, surged 46 percent in Sydney after confirming a takeover approach.
Bridgestone Corp, the world’s biggest tiremaker by market value, jumped 4 percent to 1,833 yen after saying it expects net income will surge 63 percent to 168 billion yen ($2.1 billion) this year on growing sales. The Japanese tire company also said it will spend about 4.7 billion yen to boost production capacity.
European stocks advanced for a third day, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to a six-month high, as investors speculated that euro-area officials are nearing an agreement on a bailout for Greece.
Germany wants the currency area’s finance ministers to avoid separating the 130 billion-euro bailout for Greece from the planned bond swap with private creditors, officials from Europe’s largest economy said in a briefing to their country’s lawmakers. The finance chiefs of the 17 nations using the single currency meet on Feb. 20 in Brussels.
The Eurogroup meeting will probably approve the package and the debt exchange, three German officials involved in the telephone briefing yesterday said. A Finance Ministry spokesman declined to comment.
National benchmarks gained in every market except Norway. France’s CAC 40 Index and Germany’s DAX index both added 1.4 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3 percent.
A gauge of European banks advanced 1.4 percent making the biggest contribution to the Stoxx 600’s rally. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest lender, jumped 6.5 percent to 24.03 euros. Santander, Spain’s biggest bank, increased 2 percent to 6.41 euros. RBS climbed 3.2 percent to 27.6 pence and Barclays Plc added 1.4 percent to 248.35 pence. Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal’s largest bank, jumped 5.5 percent to 1.72 euros.
Piraeus Bank SA rallied 14 percent to 64.2 euro cents. Alpha Bank SA surged 16 percent to 1.81 euros.
Anglo American climbed 1.1 percent to 2,674 pence after the producer of metals and minerals from Africa to Brazil said that underlying earnings increased to $5.06 a share in 2011 from $4.13 a share in 2010.
Aegon NV rallied 7 percent to 3.99 euros. The Dutch insurer, which owns Transamerica Corp., said it aims to increase underlying pretax profit by 7 percent to 10 percent a year on average until 2015 and to post a return on equity of 10 percent to 12 percent. The company also reported fourth-quarter net income of 79 million euros.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index near the highest level in about three years, amid optimism Greece will get a bailout.
Global stocks rallied as Germany expressed confidence that euro-area governments will agree on a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) rescue for Greece within days, while seeking to keep a bond swap of the nation’s debt on track. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos discussed plans in a conference call today and are optimistic finance ministers will resolve remaining issues when they meet on Feb. 20.
The S&P 500 has risen 8.3 percent so far this year as Europe stepped up efforts to tame its debt crisis and after reports on U.S. manufacturing, housing and jobs bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy. Data today showed that the index of leading indicators rose in January and the cost of living climbed less than forecast, pointing to sustained economic growth with limited price pressures.
Dow 12,949.87 +45.79 +0.35%, Nasdaq 2,951.78 -8.07 -0.27%, S&P 500 1,361.23 +3.19 +0.23%
H.J. Heinz gained 4.55 percent. The company reported third-quarter earnings excluding some items of 95 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 85 cents.
Campbell Soup added 2.62 percent. The company reported second-quarter earnings excluding some items of 64 cents a share.
Gilead tumbled 14 percent. Among eight patients with hepatitis C genotype 1 in a clinical trial, six had a viral relapse within four weeks after stopping a 12-week treatment with the medicine, GS-7977, plus ribavirin, Gilead said today in a statement. The two other patients are two weeks out from stopping treatment, and haven’t relapsed, the company said.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9240 (high of the European session on Feb 15)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9180 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9151
Support 1: Chf0.9135 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9085/00 (area of Feb 9-13 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9065 (Nov 30 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3285 (Feb 13 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3240 (session high)
The current price: $1.3208
Support 1 : $1.3170 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)
On the UK data front, the signs are the public finances are performing somewhat better than expected, raising the possibility of an overfund with only two months data left before the end of this fiscal year. The heavweight release is the second estimate of Q4 GDP, the output/expenditure estimate, with the headline numbers determined by the output data. No change is expected for the headline numbers from the 0.2% quarterly fall in the first estimate. The expenditure side will show how consumers fared under the continuing squeeze on real incomes.
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) February -0.8%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) February +0.4%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index December 94.3
05:00 Japan Coincident Index December 93.2
13:30 U.S. Bank holiday 0
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