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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 23-02-2012.
The euro advanced to the strongest level in more than 10 weeks against the dollar as a report showed German business confidence rose to the highest level in seven months amid progress taming the region’s debt crisis. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index climbed to 109.6 from 108.3 in January, the highest reading since July, amid euro area efforts to prevent a default by Greece. The 17-nation currency pared gains after data forecast that Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012. The euro stayed higher even after the European Commission forecast of a shrinking euro-zone economy in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis. The euro bloc will contract 0.3 percent, the commission said, abandoning a November forecast of 0.5 percent growth. The downgrade was mainly due to projected contractions of 1.3 percent in Italy and 1 percent in Spain.
The dollar dropped after U.S. initial jobless claims held at a four-year low, damping demand for safety. Applications for jobless benefits were unchanged in the week ended Feb. 18 at 351,000, the fewest since March 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. The median projection in a survey called for 355,000 claims, marking the fourth straight week that the figures have been better than forecast. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls dropped to the lowest level since August 2008.
Stocks in Europe declined for a third day as the European Commission said the region’s economy will shrink this year, dragged down by Italy and Spain.
The 17-nation euro economy will contract 0.3 percent in 2012, the European Commission said, abandoning a November forecast for a 0.5 percent growth. The commission expects the economy to shrink 1.3 percent in Italy and 1 percent in Spain.
In Germany, the Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 109.6 in February from 108.3 in January. That’s the fourth straight gain and the highest reading since July.
National benchmark indexes retreated in 12 of the 18 western European markets. Germany’s DAX dropped 0.5 percent, while France’s CAC 40 was little changed. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.4 percent.
Commerzbank fell 6.6 percent to 1.93 euros. Germany’s second-largest lender said it won’t pay a dividend for 2011 and will ask investors to swap hybrid capital instruments trading below face value for new shares, in a plan to boost its financial strength. The measures could increase the core Tier 1 capital by more than 1 billion euros ($1.33 billion), the bank said.
Deutsche Telekom AG lost 3 percent to 8.70 euros. The company forecast earnings will fall further this year after posting a 1.34 billion-euro quarterly net loss because of writedowns on T-Mobile USA and its Greek business.
Natixis SA, the investment-banking and asset-management unit of Groupe BPCE, jumped 8.4 percent to 2.53 euros. The bank said fourth-quarter profit fell 32 percent to 302 million euros after it wrote down Greek sovereign debt.
Cookson Group Plc, the world’s biggest maker of ceramic linings for metal smelters, advanced 4.7 percent to 670 pence. The company said it will sell its U.S. precious metals business to a unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
U.S. stocks advanced, erasing an earlier decline for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as Sears Holdings Corp. soared on plans to raise as much as $770 million while jobless claims and housing data beat estimates.
Stocks rose as applications for jobless benefits were unchanged in the week ended Feb. 18 at 351,000, the fewest since March 2008. A report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that a gauge of home prices rose 0.7 percent in December, beating estimates.
Dow 12,972.73 +34.06 +0.26%, Nasdaq 2,948.58 +15.41 +0.53%, S&P 500 1,360.27 +2.61 +0.19%
Sears surged 20 percent to $62.27. The rights offering to separate the Hometown and Outlet shops and some hardware stores may raise $400 million to $500 million, Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based Sears said today in a statement. The 11 sites will be sold to General Growth Properties for about $270 million, the retailer said.
A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes rallied 2.2 percent. KB Home added 4.1 percent to $11.72. PulteGroup advanced 3.7 percent to $8.64.
Vivus surged 90 percent to $20.08. Qnexa is one of three medications vying for the first U.S. approval of a prescription weight-loss treatment since Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG (ROG)’s Xenical in 1999. The FDA plans to have advisers discuss in March the possibility of requiring heart-risk studies for all weight- loss drugs. Panel members discussed whether Vivus should conduct such a study before or after approval.
Hewlett-Packard slumped 4.2 percent to $27.73. Sales in the personal-computer group dropped 15 percent to $8.87 billion in the three months ended in January as consumers held off on buying new machines in the first full quarter under Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman.
Futures on the NYMEX crude oil held near 106 dollars a barrel on the background data on stocks. Department of Energy reported that crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 1.633 million barrels to 340.708 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by0.649 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 0.208 million barrels. Load of oil in the U.S., 85.5% against 84.0% the previous week.
It is difficult to say that the debt crisis in Greece completed
Draghi sees risks for the implementation of a new program of aid to Greece
Draghi spoke in defense of the exchange of Greek bonds holding the ECB as theprotection of taxpayers
I see no evidence of official Chinese investments in the markets of the euro area
I see signs of stabilization in the euro area economy
High unemployment among young people - a sign of an outdated social model of Europe
The ECB remains true to the mandate to fight inflation
Gold consolidated on a background of U.S. data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which remain in the 4-year low. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the past week amounted to 351 thousand, 354 thousand expected to support the positive sentiment in the market and news from Europe,where data is recorded growth in the business climate index in Germany, the highest level in seven months. As a result of February IFO business climate index in Germany rose to the level of 109.6 vs. 108.6 points and the values for January at 108.3 points. Positive effect on mood in the business environment in Europe's largest economy was reflected progress in resolving the debt crisis. At the same time, constrain the growth of gold fears about the complexity of the Greek government agreements, which allowed the country to receive the next tranche of financial assistance.
The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today kept in the range of 1773.0 -1782.8 per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0660
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.25
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
GBP/USD $1.5675
Data:
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 108.3 108.6 109.6
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 116.3 116.5 117.5
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 100.9 102.0 102.3
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals January 36.2 37.3 38.1
11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -16 -13 -3
The euro climbed as a report showed German business confidence rose to the highest level in seven months in February amid progress in taming the region’s debt crisis.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index climbed to 109.6 from 108.3 in January. That’s the highest reading since July.
The euro stayed higher even as European Commission data forecast that Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis. The euro block will contract 0.3 percent, the commission said, abandoning a November forecast of 0.5 percent growth. The downgrade was mainly due to projected contractions of 1.3 percent in Italy and 1 percent in Spain.
EUR/USD: the pair showed high in $1.3340 area then returned back to $1.3300 area.
GBP/USD: the pair grown above $1,5700.
USD/JPY: the pair was limited Y80,00-Y80,40.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3380/85, $1.3350, $1.3325/25
Bids $1.3265/60, $1.3250/30, $1.3210, $1.3185, $1.3150
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5770/80, $1.5750/55, $1.5730/35
Bids $1.5640, $1.5620, $1.5600, $1.5580
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0800/05, $1.0790/95, $1.0750/60
Bids $1.0660/50, $1.0610/00, $1.0590/80, $1.0570/65, $1.0530/25
EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.00, Y107.50, Y107.35/40, Y107.00
Bids Y106.10/00, Y105.85/80, Y105.50/45, Y105.10/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.50
Bids Y80.00, Y79.95/90, Y79.80/75, Y79.60/50
Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May) Resistance 2: Y81.50 (high of July) Resistance 1: Y80.40/50 (session high, Feb 22 high, high of August) Current price: Y80.12 Support 1:Y79.90 (Feb 20-21 high) Support 2:Y79.30 (Feb 20 low) Support 3:Y78.80 (Feb 17 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 highs)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9080 (Feb 20-21 low)
Current price: Chf0.9065
Support 1: Chf0.9030 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9000 (psychological level)
Support 3: Chf0.8950 (Nov 11 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5810 (Feb 22 high) Resistance 2 : $1.5760 (МА (200) for Н1) Resistance 1 : $1.5720 (session high) Current price: $1.5714 Support 1 : $1.5650 (session low, Feb 14 and 16 lows)
Support 2 : $1.5580 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5930) Support 3 : $1.5500 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5930)
Resistance 3 : $1.3540 (high of December)
Resistance 2 : $1.3460 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3340 (session high)
Current price: $1.3301
Support 1 : $1.3190 (Feb 21 high)
Support 2 : $1.3210 (Feb 22 low)
Support 3 : $1.3180 (Feb 20-21 lows, МА (200) for Н1)
Comments: the pair tries to be fixed above МА(100) for D1 which limits growth of pair in $1,3310 area.
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0660
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.25
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
GBP/USD $1.5675
Yesterday the yen weakened to a seven-month low against the dollar as the highest yield premium on Treasuries when compared with Japanese debt since August damped the appeal of yen-denominated assets. The yen fell for a fifth day, the most since April, after a report showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to the highest in almost two years, bolstering expectations for growth in North America. It has weakened 3.6 percent since the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program.
The pound declined, dropping to a 10-week low versus the euro, after minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting showed two policy makers wanted a larger increase in asset purchases than the amount finally agreed. Sterling fell against all but one of its 16 major peers and gilts gained as the minutes revealed Adam Posen and David Miles voted for a 75 billion-pound ($117.6 billion) boost in quantitative easing, instead of the 50 billion pounds supported by the other seven policy makers. Gilts also rose before a report this week forecast to confirm the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter, boosting demand for safer assets.
The euro held gains against the yen after Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit rating to C from CCC. A default by the nation is likely in the near term, the ratings company said in a statement.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair holds in a range $1.3210-$1.3260.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fallen to a figure.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair has grown on a floor of a figure, showed new monthly high.
An early start for a fairly light calendar Thursday, when, at 0700GMT, the German Finance Ministry releases its monthly fiscal and economic report, in Berlin. Also Thursday, the ECB holds its mid-month meeting of the Governing Council, in Frankfurt, although no policy
announcements are expected.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern that oil near a nine-month high will crimp economic growth was countered by a surge in Alibaba.com Ltd. and gains by telecommunications companies.
Nikkei 225 9,554 +90.98 +0.96%
Hang Seng 21,549.28 +70.56 +0.33%
S&P/ASX 200 4,293.11 +1.91 +0.04%
Shanghai Composite 2,403.59 +22.16 +0.93%
Alibaba, China’s No. 1 e-commerce web portal, jumped 42 percent after its parent offered to privatize the company.
NTT DoCoMo Inc. , Japan’s largest mobile-phone operator by market value, climbed 2 percent after a report it expanded capacity to prevent service glitches.
Kumho Petro Chemical Co. , a Korean maker of synthetic rubber and chemicals, slid 4.3 percent as crude oil remained above $105 a barrel. Wilmar International Ltd. , the world’s No. 1 palm-oil processing company, dropped 11 percent after its earnings fell short of analyst forecasts.
European stocks retreated for a second day after a report showed services and manufacturing output in the euro area unexpectedly contracted in February.
European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February as the euro-area economy struggled to rebound from a contraction in the fourth quarter. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate released by e-mail today.
A separate Purchasing Managers Index showed German services and manufacturing expansion unexpectedly slowed in February amid declining orders at factories in Europe’s largest economy.
Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit grade two levels to ‘C’ from ‘CCC’ after the country got approval to proceed with a bond exchange that will reduce its debt burden and avert the collapse of the economy.
Minutes of the U.K central bank’s February meeting showed seven of the nine members of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mervyn King, voted to increase the bond-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78.6 billion) to 325 billion pounds. They argued that a larger increase “risked sending a signal that the committee thought the economic situation was weaker than it was,” the minutes showed.
FTSE 100 5,916.55 -11.65 -0.20%, CAC 40 3,447.37 -17.87 -0.52%, DAX 6,843.87 -64.31 -0.93%
TUI retreated 7.6 percent to 5.99 euros. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA is managing the sale of 12.85 million TUI shares priced at 6.05 euros apiece, according to terms of the offer obtained by Bloomberg News.
Peugeot surged 12 percent to 16.13 euros, the most since April 2009. The company, which last week reported a slump in profit and an increase in debt, is in talks on a possible alliance with General Motors Co., French Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand said.
Cove Energy Plc rallied 26 percent to 194 pence, the highest since at least May 2005, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, offered to buy the U.K. explorer for 992.4 million pounds in cash.
Accor SA, Europe’s biggest hotel company, advanced 2.5 percent to 26.84 euros after full-year profit rose 19 percent. Earnings before interest and tax climbed to 530 million euros from 446 million euros a year earlier. That compared with the 523.7 million-euro average of 17 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey and Accor’s own forecast of 510 million euros to 530 million euros.
U.S. stocks fell, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to hold at an almost four- year high, as sales of previously owned houses missed estimates and data from Europe and China spurred economic concern.
Stocks fell as purchases of previously owned homes rose to a 4.57 million annual rate, less than forecast, data from National Association of Realtors showed. China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit. European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly contracted. Fitch Ratings lowered Greece’s credit rating and said a default is highly likely.
Dow 12,938.67 -27.02 -0.21%, Nasdaq 2,933.17 -15.40 -0.52%, S&P 500 1,357.66 -4.55 -0.33%
Dell tumbled 5.8 percent to $17.15. Sluggish sales have raised concerns about Dell’s comeback plan, which has relied on streamlining operations to boost earnings.
Toll Brothers declined 5.2 percent to $22.48. The largest U.S. luxury-home builder reported an unexpected first-quarter loss. KB Home decreased 4.2 percent to $11.26.
Financial shares dropped on speculation Europe’s rescue package for Greece won’t resolve the region’s debt crisis. Citigroup Inc. dropped 3 percent to $32.36. Regions Financial Corp. (RF) erased 3 percent to $5.80.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) fell the most in the Dow, slumping 2.5 percent to $58.60. The shares retreated 3.9 percent yesterday after the world’s largest retailer reported fourth-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates.
Made sense to buy assets at same pace as Oct
- Inflation to continue on downward trajectory
-
Made sense to buy assets at same pace as Oct
Inflation to continue on downward trajectory
Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9150 (Feb 21 high, MA (233) H1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9115 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9090
Support 1: Chf0.9085 (Feb 21 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9065 (Nov 30 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9020 (Nov 10 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3375 (Dec 12 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (Feb 21 high)
The current price: $1.3258
Support 1 : $1.3130 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3185 (Feb 21 low, MA (233) H1)
Support 3 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)
Change % Change Last
Oil $106.02 -0.26 -0.24%
Gold $1,778.20 +6.90 +0.39%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,554 +90.98 +0.96%
Hang Seng 21,549.28 +70.56 +0.33%
S&P/ASX 200 4,293.11 +1.91 +0.04%
Shanghai Composite 2,403.59 +22.16 +0.93%
FTSE 100 5,916.55 -11.65 -0.20%CAC 40 3,447.37 -17.87 -0.52%
DAX 6,843.87 -64.31 -0.93%
Dow 12,938.67 -27.02 -0.21%
Nasdaq 2,933.17 -15.40 -0.52%
S&P 500 1,357.66 -4.55 -0.33%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3248 +0,11%
GBP/USD $1,5667 -0,71%
USD/CHF Chf0,9100 -0,24% 0,9122
USD/JPY Y80,30 +0,71%
EUR/JPY Y106,37 +0,79%
GBP/JPY Y125,77 -0,02%
AUD/USD $1,0636 -0,24%
NZD/USD $0,8291 -0,57%
USD/CAD C$0,9997 +0,30%
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 108.3 108.6
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 116.3 116.5
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 100.9 102.0
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals January 36.2 37.3
11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -16 -13
13:00 G20 G20 Meetings 0
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 18.02.2012 348 345
15:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m December +1.0% +0.3%
15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Quarter I
16:00 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 17.02.2012 -0.2
22:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
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