Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 21-02-2012.

The euro rose against most of its major counterparts after Greece won a second international bailout and the Greek finance minister said a formal offer for a debt swap will be made by the end of this week. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month. The euro strengthened after news Greece’s government will introduce legislation to Parliament today that will allow it to enforce losses on bondholders in a writedown of Greek debt, part of a second financing package for the country known as private- sector involvement, or PSI, a government official said.

The yen fell for a fourth day versus the dollar, the longest losing streak in more than two months, as investors sold the Japanese currency to buy higher-yielding assets.

European stocks fell from a six- month high amid speculation a Greek bailout deal won’t be sufficient to solve the nation’s debt crisis.

European finance ministers approved a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) bailout package for Greece early today by tapping into European Central Bank profits and convincing investors to provide more debt relief to the Mediterranean country. The deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in the nation’s debt, according to Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who chaired the talks. Finance ministers haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans and a possible contribution by central banks.

The odds that Greece will remain encumbered by debt were illustrated by an analysis by European and International Monetary Fund officials that highlighted what could go wrong with a country unable to grow out of its fiscal woes by devaluing its currency. In a worst-case scenario Greece’s debt might balloon to 160 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, it concluded.

Unless 90 percent of investors sign up to the bond swap, Greece may need to use force to secure the debt relief, entering legal difficulties. Finland and Germany are among the nations whose lawmakers must back the new loans and the International Monetary Fund must also decide how much it is willing to contribute to the package.

National benchmark indexes dropped in all of the western European markets, led by Greece’s ASE, which sank 3.5 percent. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX slid 0.6 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.3 percent.

National Bank of Greece led declines in financial shares, falling 9.5 percent to 2.68 euros, after three days of gains. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA dropped 2.4 percent to 1.53 euros in Milan. Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest lender, fell 2.1 percent to 33.85 euros. Julius Baer Group Ltd. declined 2.5 percent to 36.66 Swiss francs.

TNT Express NV fell 2.9 percent to 9.89 euros after the express-delivery service in takeover talks with United Parcel Service Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss as reorganization costs and losses in emerging markets mounted. Post NL, which owns almost 30 percent of TNT according to data compiled by Bloomberg, dropped 4.3 percent to 4.75 euros.

Tullow Oil Plc dropped 3.6 percent to 1,543 pence, the largest decline in a month, after announcing results for an exploration well in Sierra Leone.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above the highest close since 2008, as earnings from Home Depot Inc. to Macy’s Inc. tempered concern that Greece’s debt crisis will persist even after a bailout.

Earlier today, stocks swung between gains and losses as European finance ministers approved 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid for Greece by tapping into European Central Bank profits and coaxing investors into providing more debt relief to shield the region from a default. Greece’s debt may still balloon to 160 percent of gross domestic product in a worst-case scenario, analysis by the International Monetary Fund and European officials indicated.

Dow 12,992.56 +42.69 +0.33%, Nasdaq 2,957.32 +5.54 +0.19%, S&P 500 1,366.38 +5.15 +0.38%

Alcoa (АА) increased 3.1 percent to $10.47. Newmont Mining increased 3.2 percent to $61.36

Home Depot (HD) gained 1.3 percent to $47.30. The company attracted customers who spent more as U.S. unemployment sank to a three-year low in January and builders began work on more houses. Warmer weather helped sales at stores open at least a year advance 5.7 percent, the biggest gain since a 7.7 percent increase in the first quarter of 2004. That topped the average estimate for a 3 percent gain by five analysts.

Macy’s added 4.4 percent to $37.84. Its profitability shrank less than analysts projected as it was able to sell women’s handbags and accessories with its planned promotions rather than by slashing prices during the holiday season. Planned promotions can be profitable while last-minute efforts to clear excess inventories erode margins.

Wal-Mart lost 3.9 percent to $60.02. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke is working to contain Wal-Mart’s costs and last quarter started pulling the company’s greeters from store lobbies to help with customer-service tasks. The retailer is seeking to keep prices low as its low-income shoppers suffer from persistent unemployment.

Oil rose to the highest level in more than nine months after euro-area finance ministers agreed on a second bailout for Greece, reducing concern that the debt crisis may slow the economy and oil consumption.

Prices gained as much as 2.1 percent after the ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid, wrung concessions from Greece’s private investors and engineered a European Central Bank profits transfer. Iran stopped selling oil to France and Britain yesterday to preempt a European Union ban on imports of its crude, according to an official news website.

Oil for March delivery gained to $105.44, the highest intraday price since May 5. Prices have risen 5.8 percent this year. The March contract expires at the close of floor trading today.

Brent oil for April settlement rose 38 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $120.43 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

The price of gold rising against the backdrop of the Eurogroup decision to grant Greece a second package of financial assistance amounting to 130 billion euros. Eurogroup on Monday night approved a 130-billion-recommended funding for Greece and the Greekprivate holders of debt of 206 billion euros to write off 53.5% from the nominal value. The intention is to reduce the country's debt to 120.5% of GDP by 2020. In return, Greece agreed to a multiyear program of austerity and structural reform.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1756.6 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3325

AUD/USD $1.0750, $1.0700

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y79.50, Y79.25, Y78.25

GBP/USD $1.5900

Data:

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 2.07 1.95 1.55

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 10.8 -8.9 -10.7

 

The euro declined on concern it will require further political action to resolve the region’s debt crisis even after Greece won a second international bailout.

The common currency fell as Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in Greek bonds, greater than a previous arrangement.

An analysis by the International Monetary Fund and European officials suggested Greece’s debt may still balloon to 160 percent of its gross domestic product in a worst- case scenario.

Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros in aid to Greece, and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer meant to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month.

The euro gained 0.4 percent in the past week as optimism built that Greece would win more international support, according to Bloomberg

 

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in area $1.3200 after showed high in $1,3290 area.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased below $1,5800.

USD/JPY: the pair was limited Y79,50-Y79,85.

 

At 1500GMT, the EMU Feb flash consumer morale data is released.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350, $1.3310, $1.3300, $1.3240

Bids $1.3185, $1.3140

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5990/6000, $1.5950, $1.5900

Bids $1.5790, $1.5750/40, $1.5700

Resistance 3: Y81.50 (high of July)

Resistance 2: Y80.30 (high of August)

Resistance 1: Y79.90 (session high, Feb 20 high)

Current price: Y79.72

Support 1:Y79.30 (Feb  20 low)

Support 2:Y78.80 (Feb 17 low)

Support 3:Y78.40 (38.2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y79.90)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9129

Support 1: Chf0.9080 (session low, Feb 9 and 20 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)

Support 3: Chf0.9000 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.6000 (psychological level) Resistance 2 : $1.5930 (Feb 8 high) Resistance 1 : $1.5860/80 (session high, Feb 9 and 20 highs) Current price: $1.5819 Support 1 : $1.5790 (session low, Feb 17 low) Support 2 : $1.5740 (Feb 15 high) Support 3 : $1.5650 (Feb 16 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3460 (Dec  8 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (session high)

Current price: $1.3220

Support 1 : $1.3180 (session low, Feb 20 20 low, МА (200) for Н1)

Support 2 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.2970 (Feb  16 low)

A break of $1.5790 to open a deeper move toward $1.5770. Intraday low extends to $1.5794, the rate currently trading around $1.5803.

EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3325 

AUD/USD $1.0750, $1.0700

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y79.50, Y79.25, Y78.25

GBP/USD $1.5900

00:30 Australia Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes 0

02:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now IV quarter +2.8% +2.5%

02:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech 0

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December -1.1% +1.6% +1.3%

The euro climbed to a three-month high against the yen and reversed losses versus the dollar after euro-area finance ministers reached agreement on a second bailout package for Greece to stave off a default next month. The 17-nation euro advanced to the strongest level in more than a week versus the U.S. currency as Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters the deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in Greek bonds. Finance ministers haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans to Greece and a possible contribution by central banks, and leaned on investors to accept bigger write- offs in a bond exchange. Debt-swap bonds will have a coupon of 2 percent in 2014, rising to 3 percent in 2015-2020 and to 4.3 percent after that, Juncker said.

The Australian dollar weakened after Australia’s central bank said it has scope to ease monetary policy if needed, after keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged this month as risks in Europe abated, minutes of its Feb. 7 meeting showed. Policy makers “judged that if demand conditions were to weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for a further easing in monetary policy,” the minutes released today by the Sydney-based Reserve Bank of Australia showed. “While the financial situation in Europe remained fragile, the likelihood of an extremely bad outcome seemed to have diminished somewhat.”

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain, showed new month’s high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, coming nearer to month’s high.

A pick up in activity on Tuesday, as the US markets return after  the Presidents' Day holiday. With eurozone finance minister heading for a few hours sleep after another all-night session, the calendar gets under way outside the EU, when Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen is slated to speak at the Foreign Press Association, in Oslo, starting at 0800GMT. Also at 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Miguel Angel  Ordonez is to give opening remarks at conference in honor of ex-Bank of Spain Governor Luis Angel Rojo, Madrid. At 1500GMT, the EMU Feb flash consumer morale data is released. The first US data after the holiday is expected at 1430GMT, with the release of the MNI Capital Goods index, followed at 1530GMT, with the release of the MNI Retail Trade Index.

Yesterday the euro rose against the dollar on speculation European finance ministers will settle their remaining differences over a Greek bailout. The common currency also strengthened versus the yen and the British pound.

Euro-area finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels to seek agreement on a 130 billion-euro Greek bailout. Talks on Greece’s second aid package in two years will aim to reconcile demands made on Greek politicians, a debt swap among private creditors and the role of the European Central Bank.

European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel want to wrest the common currency out of its crisis amid signs of improvement in the global economy. Yesterday focus has returned to Greece as the threat of economic collapse and exit from the euro has stoked officials’ concern such a scenario may provoke chaos. An agreement is crucial to fend off the region’s first sovereign default as Greece is due to pay off 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt on March 20.

The dollar dropped against most major peers on Chinese measures to sustain economic growth, damping demand for haven assets.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair rose on a floor of a figure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair holds in a range $1.5840-$1.5880.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair decreased in area Y79.50.

A pick up in activity on Tuesday, as the US markets return after  the Presidents' Day holiday. With eurozone finance minister heading for a few hours sleep after another all-night session, the calendar gets under way outside the EU, when Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen is slated to speak at the Foreign Press Association, in Oslo, starting at 0800GMT. Also at 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Miguel Angel  Ordonez is to give opening remarks at conference in honor of ex-Bank of Spain Governor Luis Angel Rojo, Madrid. At 1500GMT, the EMU Feb flash consumer morale data is released. The first US data after the holiday is expected at 1430GMT, with the release of the MNI Capital Goods index, followed at 1530GMT, with the release of the MNI Retail Trade Index.

Asian stocks rose, extending the benchmark gauge’s longest streak of weekly gains since 2005, after China cut reserve requirements for banks to fuel lending and buoy economic growth, boosting demand for riskier assets.

Nikkei 225 9,485.09 +100.92 +1.08%

Hang Seng 21,427.06 -64.56 -0.30%

S&P/ASX 200 4,256.1 +60.23 +1.44%

Shanghai Composite 2,363.6 +6.42 +0.27%

Japanese steelmakers rose after Credit Suisse raised their stock-price estimates and maintained their “outperform” ratings. The investment bank expects export prices to recover and input prices to fall.

Franshion Properties China Ltd., a developer that gets all of its revenue from the mainland, rose 7.4 percent in Hong Kong. China Shipping Container Lines Co., the country’s second-largest carrier of sea-cargo boxes, jumped 7.3 percent. Japanese steelmakers advanced after Credit Suisse Group AG boosted their share-price estimates.

Billabong International Ltd. , an Australian surfwear company, jumped 8 percent in Sydney, extending its surge on Feb. 17, after saying it is considering a revised takeover offer.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9102

Support 1: Chf0.9085 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9065 (Nov 30 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9020 (Nov 10 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3375 (Dec 12 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (session high)

The current price: $1.3269

Support 1 : $1.3228 (support line from Feb 16)

Support 2 : $1.3185 (session low)

Support 3 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $105.00 +1.74 +1.70%

Gold $1,736.20 +10.30 +0.60%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,485.09 +100.92 +1.08%

Hang Seng 21,427.06 -64.56 -0.30%

S&P/ASX 200 4,256.1 +60.23 +1.44%

Shanghai Composite 2,363.6 +6.42 +0.27%

FTSE 100 5,945.25 +40.18 +0.68%

CAC 40 3,472.54 +32.92 +0.96%

DAX 6,948.25 +100.22 +1.46%

Dow closed

Nasdaq closed

S&P 500 closed

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3243 +0,66%

GBP/USD $1,5849 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9117 -0,73%

USD/JPY Y79,62 +0,18%

EUR/JPY Y105,44 +0,83%

GBP/JPY Y126,18 +0,28%

AUD/USD $1,0754 +0,36%

NZD/USD $0,8397 +0,73%

USD/CAD C$0,9933 -0,22%

00:30 Australia Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes 0

02:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now IV quarter +2.8%

02:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech 0

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December -1.1% +1.6%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 2.07 1.95

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 10.8 -8.9

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m December +0.3% -0.2%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m January +0.3% +0.3%

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m December -0.4% +0.6%

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence February -20.7 -20.1

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index December -0.3%