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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 22-02-2012.
The yen weakened to a seven-month low against the dollar as the highest yield premium on Treasuries when compared with Japanese debt since August damped the appeal of yen-denominated assets. The yen fell for a fifth day, the most since April, after a report showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to the highest in almost two years, bolstering expectations for growth in North America. It has weakened 3.6 percent since the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program.
The pound declined, dropping to a 10-week low versus the euro, after minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting showed two policy makers wanted a larger increase in asset purchases than the amount finally agreed. Sterling fell against all but one of its 16 major peers and gilts gained as the minutes revealed Adam Posen and David Miles voted for a 75 billion-pound ($117.6 billion) boost in quantitative easing, instead of the 50 billion pounds supported by the other seven policy makers. Gilts also rose before a report this week forecast to confirm the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter, boosting demand for safer assets.
The euro held gains against the yen after Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit rating to C from CCC. A default by the nation is likely in the near term, the ratings company said in a statement today.
European stocks retreated for a second day after a report showed services and manufacturing output in the euro area unexpectedly contracted in February.
European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February as the euro-area economy struggled to rebound from a contraction in the fourth quarter. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate released by e-mail today.
A separate Purchasing Managers Index showed German services and manufacturing expansion unexpectedly slowed in February amid declining orders at factories in Europe’s largest economy.
Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit grade two levels to ‘C’ from ‘CCC’ after the country got approval to proceed with a bond exchange that will reduce its debt burden and avert the collapse of the economy.
Minutes of the U.K central bank’s February meeting showed seven of the nine members of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mervyn King, voted to increase the bond-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78.6 billion) to 325 billion pounds. They argued that a larger increase “risked sending a signal that the committee thought the economic situation was weaker than it was,” the minutes showed.
FTSE 100 5,916.55 -11.65 -0.20%, CAC 40 3,447.37 -17.87 -0.52%, DAX 6,843.87 -64.31 -0.93%
TUI retreated 7.6 percent to 5.99 euros. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA is managing the sale of 12.85 million TUI shares priced at 6.05 euros apiece, according to terms of the offer obtained by Bloomberg News.
Peugeot surged 12 percent to 16.13 euros, the most since April 2009. The company, which last week reported a slump in profit and an increase in debt, is in talks on a possible alliance with General Motors Co., French Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand said.
Cove Energy Plc rallied 26 percent to 194 pence, the highest since at least May 2005, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, offered to buy the U.K. explorer for 992.4 million pounds in cash.
Accor SA, Europe’s biggest hotel company, advanced 2.5 percent to 26.84 euros after full-year profit rose 19 percent. Earnings before interest and tax climbed to 530 million euros from 446 million euros a year earlier. That compared with the 523.7 million-euro average of 17 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey and Accor’s own forecast of 510 million euros to 530 million euros.
U.S. stocks fell, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to hold at an almost four- year high, as sales of previously owned houses missed estimates and data from Europe and China spurred growth concern.
Stocks fell as purchases of previously owned homes climbed 4.3 percent to a 4.57 million annual rate, less than forecast, a report from National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. A gauge of European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February. China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit.
Dow 12,930.88 -34.81 -0.27%, Nasdaq 2,933.22 -15.35 -0.52%, S&P 500 1,357.40 -4.81 -0.35%
Toll Brothers declined 5.2 percent to $22.47. The largest U.S. luxury-home builder reported an unexpected first-quarter loss. KB Home decreased 5.2 percent to $11.14.
Dell tumbled 6.4 percent to $17.05. Sluggish sales -- coupled with shrinking profit last quarter -- have raised concerns about Dell’s comeback plan, which has relied on streamlining operations to boost earnings. After an almost 25 percent gain in Dell’s shares this year, some investors may have been overly optimistic about the company’s ability to turn around its operations, said Brian Marshall, an analyst at ISI Group Inc. in San Francisco.
Financial shares dropped, following losses in European lenders. Citigroup Inc. dropped 2.7 percent to $32.46. Regions Financial Corp. erased 2.7 percent to $5.82.
Oil fluctuated near a nine-month high as reports showed manufacturing activity slowed in Europe and China and United Nations inspectors in Iran were denied access to a military base.
Futures fell as much as 0.6 percent after an index based on a survey of euro-region purchasing managers unexpectedly shrank. Manufacturing in China may decline for a fourth month, according to a preliminary index. Oil advanced earlier after officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency were denied access to the Iranian base in Parchin.
A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services and manufacturing industries dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today.
China’s manufacturing also may shrink in February, according to the preliminary 49.7 reading of an index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. It would be the fourth month factory activity declines as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis damps exports and the housing market cools. Readings below 50 point to a contraction.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran refused permission to visit the Parchin military base during two days of talks that ended yesterday. An Iranian military commander said his nation would consider preemptive action if threatened.
Crude oil for April delivery traded in range $105.61 - $106.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for April settlement climbed $1.22, or 1 percent, to $122.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest intraday level since May 4.
Gold retreated from a two-week high as concerns over the financial condition of Europe was hit on the euro and the dollar strengthened.
Euro zone finance ministers agreed Tuesday to unlock the second program of financialsupport for Greece € 130 billion in size in order to prevent the country defaulted in March. In return, Athens would have to take unpopular austerity measures, and private lenders will suffer heavy losses.
In the future, gold will be supported by low interest rates in the U.S., purchases by central banks and strong demand in emerging markets, including China. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday confirmed the favorable prognosis in gold prices in 12 months.
The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today declined to 1750.0 dollars per ounce.
Resistance 3:1373 (high of 2011)
Resistance 2:1368 (Feb 20-21 highs)
Resistance 1:1364 (session high)
Current price: 1359,25
Support 1:1355 (session low and Feb 21 low)
Support 2:1351 (МА (200) for Н1, 50.0 % FIBO 1334-1368)
Support 3:1347 (61.8 % FIBO 1334-1368)
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3250, $1.3300
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0650, $1.0700
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.15
EUR/CHF Chf1.2075
USD/CAD C$0.9950
Data:
08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.5 48.7 50.2
08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) February 52.3 51.9 50.3
08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 51.0 51.1 50.1
08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) February 53.7 53.6 52.6
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.3 49.0
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) February 50.4 50.7 49.4
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a., m/m December -1.3% +0.6% +1.9%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders, y/y December -2.7% -2.8% -1.7%
The pound declined after minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting showed two policy makers voted for a larger increase in asset purchases than the amount finally agreed.
Sterling fell versus and gilts gained as the minutes revealed Adam Posen and David Miles wanted a 75 billion-pound ($117.8 billion) boost in quantitative easing, instead of the 50 billion pounds supported by the other seven policy makers. Gilts also rose before a report this week forecast to confirm the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter, boosting demand for safer assets.
Posen and Miles votes for 75 billion pounds of additional stimulus because of “the considerable margin of spare capacity remaining in the economy and the extent of deleveraging still likely to be required,” the minutes of the Feb. 8-9 meeting showed. They saw a risk of a “prolonged period of depressed demand causing inflation to fall materially below” the central bank’s 2 percent target.
EUR/USD: the pair was limited $1.3210-$ 1.3260.
GBP/USD: the pair fell in $1,5660 area.
USD/JPY: the pair grown above Y80,00.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3350, $1.3325, $1.3310, $1.3300, $1.3270/80
Bids $1.3210/00, $1.3185, $1.3150, $1.3140/30
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0800/05, $1.0790/95, $1.0750/60, $1.0720/25, $1.0700
Bids $1.0590/80, $1.0570/65, $1.0530/25
EUR/JPY
Offers Y106.80, Y106.35/40
Bids Y105.85/80, Y105.50/45, Y105.10/00, Y104.60/50, Y104.20/10
USD/JPY
Offers Y81.00, Y80.50, Y80.40
Bids Y79.95/90, Y79.80/75, Y79.60/50, Y79.00/95
- considers Greek proposal will constitute rating default
- post exchange, Greek ratings can move out of RD category
Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y81.50 (high of July)
Resistance 1: Y80.30/40 (session high, Feb 20 high, high of August)
Сurrent price: Y80.22
Support 1:Y79.90 (Feb 20-21 lows)
Support 2:Y79.30 (Feb 20 low)
Support 3:Y78.80 (Feb 17 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (Feb 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9165 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9123
Support 1: Chf0.9080 (Feb 9, 20-21 lows)
Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)
Support 3: Chf0.9000 (psychological level)
Resistance 3 : $1.5860 (Feb 20 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5810 (session high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (area of Feb 6 and 10 lows and Feb 15 high)
Current price: $1.5700
Support 1 : $1.5690 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5650 (Feb 14 and 16 lows)
Support 3 : $1.5580 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5930)
Resistance 3 : $1.3460 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (Feb 21 high)
Current price: $1.3224
Support 1 : $1.3180 (Feb 20-21 lows, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (Feb 16 low)
MPC Voted 7-2 For Stg50bn QE Increase At Feb Meet
MPC Miles, Posen Preferred Stg75bn Boost To QE
MPC Voted 9-0 For Unchanged Banke Rate At Feb Meeting
MPC - 'Case Could Be Made' For No Further Policy Stimulus
MPC: Stg75bn QE Boost Risked Worrying The Markets
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q IV quarter +0.7% +0.8% +1.0%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y IV quarter +3.6% +3.4% +3.6%
02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.7
The dollar rose to a six-month high of 80.01 yen on speculation signs the U.S. economy is accelerating will reduce the case for more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. currency gained for a fifth day versus the yen before data economists forecast will show the housing market is stabilizing.
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. probably rose for a fourth month in January, climbing 1.1 percent to a 4.66 million annual rate, the highest level since May 2010, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the National Association of Realtors releases its data today.
The euro was 0.2 percent from a three-month high versus Japan’s currency as the Greek government won a second bailout and sent debt-swap and austerity measures to parliament for approval. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($172 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month.
Greece’s government agreed to fiscal measures, a voluntary debt swap known as private-sector involvement, and collective action clauses for bonds. Legislation needed to carry out those measures was submitted to lawmakers and posted on the Greek Parliament’s website.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell versus most major peers after a report signaled China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month, spurring concern exports to the world’s fastest-growing major economy will drop. A preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed the gauge was at 49.7 this month, after a final figure of 48.8 in January. A reading below 50 points to a contraction. January and February economic data are distorted by a weeklong Chinese holiday.
China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-largest export destination.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair the pair was in consolidation.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair the pair was in consolidation.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, showed new month’s high.
On Wednesday At 0930GMT, the UK sees the release of the Feb BOE MPC Minutes. The minutes will again show divisions on the MPC, and while most analysts think the vote will have been unanimous in approving Stg50 billion in further quantitative easing there is a clear risk one or more members will have voted in favour of no change. France and Germany have moved to "harmonise" corporate tax rates by 2013, the Telegraph says. The paper says that will increase pressure on Ireland and the UK, as the EU will move to overall "harmonisation" of rates.
Yesterday the euro rose against most of its major counterparts after Greece won a second international bailout and the Greek finance minister said a formal offer for a debt swap will be made by the end of this week. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month. The euro strengthened after news Greece’s government will introduce legislation to Parliament today that will allow it to enforce losses on bondholders in a writedown of Greek debt, part of a second financing package for the country known as private- sector involvement, or PSI, a government official said.
The yen fell for a fourth day versus the dollar, the longest losing streak in more than two months, as investors sold the Japanese currency to buy higher-yielding assets.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair rose and showed new week’s high.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fallen to a floor of a figure.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded in range Y79.55-Y79.85.
On Wednesday At 0930GMT, the UK sees the release of the Feb BOE MPC Minutes. The minutes will again show divisions on the MPC, and while most analysts think the vote will have been unanimous in approving Stg50 billion in further quantitative easing there is a clear risk one or more members will have voted in favour of no change. France and Germany have moved to "harmonise" corporate tax rates by 2013, the Telegraph says. The paper says that will increase pressure on Ireland and the UK, as the EU will move to overall "harmonisation" of rates.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a six-month high, as oil prices at a nine-month high threatened to curb spending and accelerate inflation, tempering optimism after Euro-area finance ministers agreed a bailout package for Greece.
Nikkei 225 9,463.02 -22.07 -0.23%
Hang Seng 21,478.72 +53.93 +0.25%
S&P/ASX 200 4,291.2 +35.10 +0.82%
Shanghai Composite 2,381.43 +17.83 +0.75%
Panasonic Corp., a Japanese electronics company, dropped 1.9 percent to 710 yen in Tokyo after saying it plans to re- enter the European mobile-device market with a smartphone in April.
Mazda Motor Corp., Japan’s least profitable major automaker, slumped 9.9 percent to 145 yen on a report it plans to raise capital.
DeNA Co., a social-networking service provider, rallied 8.2 percent to 2,576 yen. DeNA and South Korea’s web-portal operator Daum Communications Corp. said they have started providing “Daum Mobage,” a South Korean version of DeNA’s social gaming platform, targeting 10 million users within a year.
OneSteel Ltd. surged the most in almost three years in Sydney as Australia’s second-biggest steelmaker said it’s switching focus to iron ore away from its loss-making steel unit. The shares rose 12 percent to 82 Australian cents, the biggest jump since April 2009.
European stocks fell from a six- month high amid speculation a Greek bailout deal won’t be sufficient to solve the nation’s debt crisis.
European finance ministers approved a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) bailout package for Greece early today by tapping into European Central Bank profits and convincing investors to provide more debt relief to the Mediterranean country. The deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in the nation’s debt, according to Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who chaired the talks. Finance ministers haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans and a possible contribution by central banks.
The odds that Greece will remain encumbered by debt were illustrated by an analysis by European and International Monetary Fund officials that highlighted what could go wrong with a country unable to grow out of its fiscal woes by devaluing its currency. In a worst-case scenario Greece’s debt might balloon to 160 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, it concluded.
Unless 90 percent of investors sign up to the bond swap, Greece may need to use force to secure the debt relief, entering legal difficulties. Finland and Germany are among the nations whose lawmakers must back the new loans and the International Monetary Fund must also decide how much it is willing to contribute to the package.
National benchmark indexes dropped in all of the western European markets, led by Greece’s ASE, which sank 3.5 percent. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX slid 0.6 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.3 percent.
National Bank of Greece led declines in financial shares, falling 9.5 percent to 2.68 euros, after three days of gains. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA dropped 2.4 percent to 1.53 euros in Milan. Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest lender, fell 2.1 percent to 33.85 euros. Julius Baer Group Ltd. declined 2.5 percent to 36.66 Swiss francs.
TNT Express NV fell 2.9 percent to 9.89 euros after the express-delivery service in takeover talks with United Parcel Service Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss as reorganization costs and losses in emerging markets mounted.
Tullow Oil Plc dropped 3.6 percent to 1,543 pence, the largest decline in a month, after announcing results for an exploration well in Sierra Leone.
U.S. stocks erased gains, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to hold above its highest close since 2008, as approval of Greece’s bailout was offset by economic concern with crude oil jumping to a nine-month high.
European finance ministers approved 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid for Greece by tapping into European Central Bank profits and coaxing investors into providing more debt relief to shield the region from a default. The S&P 500 briefly reversed gains as oil jumped after Iran said it stopped selling crude to France and Britain.
Dow 12,965.69 +15.82 +0.12%, Nasdaq 2,948.57 -3.21 -0.11%, S&P 500 1,362.21 +0.98 +0.07%
Wal-Mart (WMT) lost 3.9 percent to $60.07. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke is working to contain Wal-Mart’s costs and last quarter started pulling the company’s greeters from store lobbies to help with customer-service tasks. The retailer is seeking to keep prices low as its low-income shoppers suffer from persistent unemployment.
Netflix Inc. slumped 3.7 percent to $117.40. Comcast Corp., the largest U.S. cable company, will debut a service streaming television shows and movies to current customers that competes with Internet and video rivals.
Weatherford International Ltd. tumbled 14 percent to $15.36. The oilfield-services and equipment provider said it hasn’t repaired material weakness in internal controls related to taxes and may restate results for 2008 through 2011.
Chevron (CVX) gained 1.6 percent to $108.41. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) added 1.1 percent to $86.57.
Macy’s increased 1.2 percent to $36.69. Its profitability shrank less than analysts projected as it was able to sell women’s handbags and accessories with its planned promotions rather than by slashing prices during the holiday season. Planned promotions can be profitable while last-minute efforts to clear excess inventories erode margins.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (Feb 21 high)
The current price: Chf0.9129
Support 1: Chf0.9085 (Feb 21 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9065 (Nov 30 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9020 (Nov 10 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3320 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3290 (Feb 21 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3250 (session high)
The current price: $1.3227
Support 1 : $1.3185 (Feb 21 low, MA (233) H1)
Support 2 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)
Change % Change Last
Oil $105.88 +0.04 +0.04%
Gold $1,760.80 +2.30 +0.13%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,463.02 -22.07 -0.23%
Hang Seng 21,478.72 +53.93 +0.25%
S&P/ASX 200 4,291.2 +35.10 +0.82%
Shanghai Composite 2,381.43 +17.83 +0.75%
FTSE 100 5,928.2 -17.05 -0.29%
CAC 40 3,465.24 -7.30 -0.21%
DAX 6,908.18 -40.07 -0.58%
Dow 12,965.69 +15.82 +0.12%
Nasdaq 2,948.57 -3.21 -0.11%
S&P 500 1,362.21 +0.98 +0.07%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3234 -0,07%
GBP/USD $1,5778 -0,45%
USD/CHF Chf0,9122 +0,05%
USD/JPY Y79,73 +0,14%
EUR/JPY Y105,53 +0,09%
GBP/JPY Y125,80 -0,30%
AUD/USD $1,0661 -0,87%
NZD/USD $0,8338 -0,71%
USD/CAD C$0,9967 +0,34%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q IV quarter +0.7% +0.8%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y IV quarter +3.6% +3.4%
02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8
08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.5 48.7
08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) February 52.3 51.9
08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 51.0 51.1
08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) February 53.7 53.6
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) February 48.8 49.3
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) February 50.4 50.7
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes 0
10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a., m/m December -1.3% +0.6%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders, y/y December -2.7% -2.8%
14:00 Belgium Business Climate February -9.5 -7.9
15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales January 4.61 4.67
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