Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 27-02-2012.

European stocks declined, extending last week’s retreat, as the Group of 20 nations rejected calls from the euro area to increase the International Monetary Fund’s lending resources.

G-20 officials told the euro area’s political leaders to provide more financial firepower before they consider lending their support, putting the onus on Germany, already the biggest national contributor to the bailouts.

Germany went to the Mexico meetings of finance ministers and central bankers urging G-20 nations to find further money that the IMF could channel to the euro area.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who attended the talks, said she wants to increase the fund’s lending capacity by $500 billion so that it can fend off “further shocks” to the global economy.

National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 17 western- European markets that were open today. France’s CAC 40 Index fell 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slid 0.3 percent.

HSBC fell 3.7 percent to 553.5 pence, the biggest contribution to the Stoxx 600 (SXXP)’s retreat, after reporting a 15 percent increase in pretax profit to $21.9 billion last year. That missed the $22.3 billion median analyst estimate.

Maersk slid 3.7 percent to 43,840 kroner after the shipping company posted a 43 percent drop in 2011 profit to 15.2 billion kroner ($2.7 billion). That compared with the average analyst estimate of 14.8 billion kroner. Falling freight rates pushed its container line to a loss in 2011. The company said that the division will also lose money in 2012.

Porsche SE rallied 3.1 percent to 50.07 euros after people familiar with the matter said Volkswagen AG (VOW), Europe’s largest carmaker, is close to a deal to purchase the 50.1 percent stake in Porsche’s automotive business that it doesn’t already own. The company may announce a plan within the next two weeks, said the people who declined to be identified.

U.S. stocks rose as a better-than- estimated jump in pending home sales helped the market recover from an early drop after the Group of 20 nations rebuffed calls from the euro area for more bailout funding.

U.S. equities erased losses after a report showed that the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in January, indicating the industry that triggered the last recession is improving.

European leaders shift their focus this week to bolstering the euro region’s debt-crisis firewall after the Group of 20 nations rebuffed their call for help. The European Central Bank will offer unlimited three-year funds, with banks set to take 470 billion euros ($629 billion), according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey, compared with 489 billion euros at the tender Dec. 21.

Dow 13,009.70 +26.75 +0.21%, Nasdaq 2,970.07 +6.32 +0.21%, S&P 500 1,368.97 +3.23 +0.24%

Lowe’s rose 2.1 percent to $27.73. Sales at stores open at least a year advanced 3.4 percent, helped by the fourth-warmest January on record. Unemployment sank to a three-year low last month and builders began work on more houses. Analysts had expected same-store sales to increase 1.1 percent, the average of seven estimates.

Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent, reversing an earlier loss of 1.2 percent. Citigroup gained 1.3 percent to $32.77. Morgan Stanley increased 0.8 percent to $18.63.

Oil fell for the first time in eight days after the Group of 20 nations rebuffed calls from euro countries to increase international lending resources, adding to concern that Europe’s debt crisis will slow the economy.

Prices dropped as much as 1.4 percent as the G-20 said Europe needs to review its financial firewall before any consideration can be given to boosting the International Monetary Fund’s resources. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned the world economy is “not out of the danger zone” amid fragile financial systems and rising oil prices.

The G-20 rebuffed German-led calls to help Europe fight its debt crisis, saying any decision on outside aid hinges on the euro area delivering more financial firepower within two months. The group is “alert to the risks of higher oil prices,” it said in a statement yesterday after a meeting in Mexico City.

Lagarde said that G-20 countries “must now strengthen resilience to further shocks that could result from still fragile financial systems, high public and private debt, and higher world oil prices.”

Oil for April delivery fell to $108.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at a nine-month high on Feb. 24. Prices have increased 10 percent this year. Brent oil for April settlement declined $1.36, or 1.1 percent, to $124.11 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices down because of fear of the debt crisis in the eurozone. The debt crisis in theeuro area in recent years, initially helped increase the price of gold, as investors were interested in him as a insurance against risk. But in recent months, prices are rising even against better news from the eurozone, as both the euro is rising against the dollar.

The retreat in prices of 10-week high has caused demand growth in India - the world's largest gold market is extremely price sensitive.

According to dealers in Tokyo, the market supply of scrap gold rose after the price rise of gold in yen to its highest level in September 2011 by easing the Bank of Japan.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today declined to 1768.1 dollars per ounce.

Since econ data recently look better he probably will downplay more QE but keep the option open, will talk about long-term fiscal balance and worry about higher gas prices. He may also be asked about housing (to talk about the Fed's white paper being options, not recommendations), banking (better profits, FDIC insurance extension ending, whether there is good funding), and Europe.

• calls on banks to take part in Greek PSI

• IMF contribution to Greek aid indispensable.
• overcoming debt crisis will take years.
• solution won't come in one big bang.
• if euro fails, europe will fail

• calls on banks to take part in Greek PSI

• IMF contribution to Greek aid indispensable.
• overcoming debt crisis will take years.
• solution won't come in one big bang.
• if euro fails, europe will fail

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3600/10, $1.3565/70, $1.3550/60, $1.3510, $1.3500 

Bids $1.3385/75, $1.3360/50, $1.3340/35, $1.3305/290

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0790/00, $1.0750/60, $1.0725/30, $1.0690/95, $1.0655/50

Bids $1.0630/25, $1.0610/00, $1.0590/80, $1.0570/65

Resistance 3: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (Feb 20-21 lows, high of american session on Feb 23)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9030 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.8995

Support 1: Chf0.8930/20 (session low, Nov 8-9 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.8900 (psychological level)

Support 3: Chf0.8750 (low of November, МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2 : $1.5930 (high of February)

Resistance 1 : $1.5000 (session high)

Crrent price: $1.5854

Support 1 : $1.5840 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5800 (38,2 % FIBO $1.5650-$ 1.5900)

Support 3 : $1.5770 (50.0 % FIBO $1.5650-$ 1.5900, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.3610 (Nov 18 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3540 (high of December)

Resistance 1 : $1.3485 (session high, Feb 24 high)

Current price: $1.3401

Support 1 : $1.3380 (support line from Feb 16)

Support 2 : $1.3350 (Feb 24 low)

Support 3 : $1.3290 (38.2 % FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480)

• E855mln of 3.50% June 2017; avg yield 2.621%, cover 2.36;

• E1.125bln of 4.25% Sep 2022; avg yield 3.737%, cover 1.70;
• E923mln of 4.25% Mar 2041; avg yield 4.158%, cover 1.52.

The yen was 0.8 percent from its weakest level in almost four months against the euro amid signs Europe will contain its debt crisis and the U.S. economic recovery is gaining pace. The yen has plunged since the Bank of Japan, which has struggled for more than a decade against deflation, said on Feb. 14 that it would aim for 1 percent annual gains in consumer prices and would add 10 trillion yen ($123 billion) to the economy.

The 17-nation euro held a seven-day gain, the longest stretch since 2010, after the People’s Bank of China said the nation will do its part to boost International Monetary Fund resources. Group of 20 nations said a decision to aid Europe hinges on the region delivering more financial firepower within two months.

The dollar eased from a nine-month high versus the yen on signs it may have risen too rapidly. The dollar erased a gain of as much as 0.6 percent versus the yen as a technical indicator suggested its recent appreciation has been too rapid. The greenback’s 14-day relative strength index against Japan’s currency was at 82, above the 70 level that some traders see as a sign an asset may be about to reverse direction. There are also indications the U.S. economy is improving. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in January rose 1 percent from the previous month, figures from the National Association of Realtors are forecast to show today, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Initial applications for jobless benefits are at a four-year low, a government report showed last week.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased, receded from a level of highs.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased, receded from a level of highs.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, after showed new month’s high.

Core European data for Monday starts at 1345GMT, ECB chief economist Peter Praet delivers a keynote speech and sits on a panel at a symposium, "Perspectives for a common stability culture in Europe," organised by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Berlin. At 1400GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in parliament on the second Greek aid program; followed by the actual vote.

US data starts at 1300GMT with the latest Building Permits Revisions. At 1430GMT the weekly Capital Goods Index is due, followed at 1500GMT by NAR Pending Home Sales and at 1530GMT by both the weekly Retail Trade Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook

Survey.

On Monday the euro rose against the dollar on speculation European finance ministers will settle their remaining differences over a Greek bailout. The common currency also strengthened versus the yen and the British pound.

Euro-area finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels to seek agreement on a 130 billion-euro Greek bailout. Talks on Greece’s second aid package in two years will aim to reconcile demands made on Greek politicians, a debt swap among private creditors and the role of the European Central Bank.

On Tuesday the euro rose against most of its major counterparts after Greece won a second international bailout and the Greek finance minister said a formal offer for a debt swap will be made by the end of this week. Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month. The euro strengthened after news Greece’s government will introduce legislation to Parliament today that will allow it to enforce losses on bondholders in a writedown of Greek debt, part of a second financing package for the country known as private- sector involvement, or PSI, a government official said.

On Wednesday the yen weakened to a seven-month low against the dollar as the highest yield premium on Treasuries when compared with Japanese debt since August damped the appeal of yen-denominated assets. The yen fell for a fifth day, the most since April, after a report showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to the highest in almost two years, bolstering expectations for growth in North America. It has weakened 3.6 percent since the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program.

The pound declined, dropping to a 10-week low versus the euro, after minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting showed two policy makers wanted a larger increase in asset purchases than the amount finally agreed. Sterling fell against all but one of its 16 major peers and gilts gained as the minutes revealed Adam Posen and David Miles voted for a 75 billion-pound ($117.6 billion) boost in quantitative easing, instead of the 50 billion pounds supported by the other seven policy makers. Gilts also rose before a report this week forecast to confirm the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter, boosting demand for safer assets.

On Thursday the euro advanced to the strongest level in more than 10 weeks against the dollar as a report showed German business confidence rose to the highest level in seven months amid progress taming the region’s debt crisis. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index climbed to 109.6 from 108.3 in January, the highest reading since July, amid euro area efforts to prevent a default by Greece. The 17-nation currency pared gains after data forecast that Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012. The euro stayed higher even after the European Commission forecast of a shrinking euro-zone economy in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis.

On Friday the yen fell to a three-month low against the euro as foreign-exchange volatility declined to its lowest level since August 2008 and signs of global growth prompted demand for higher-yielding currencies. . The yen extended its drop against the dollar to 4.3 percent since the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program on Feb. 14. The BOJ said this month it would expand its asset-purchase program to 30 trillion yen ($372 billion) from 20 trillion, with 19 trillion yen set aside for government bonds. The central bank also said it will target 1 percent inflation “for the time being.”

The euro strengthened a third day as officials prepared to address the debt crisis when Group of 20 nations meet tomorrow. The euro headed for a seventh-straight advance against the yen, the longest run since January 2010, after demand was boosted by the prospect that G-20 officials meeting this weekend may discuss committing further resources to Europe’s debt crisis.

Resistance 3: Y82.75 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.25 (May 19 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.70 (session high)

The current price: Y81.17

Support 1: Y81.00 (session low)

Support 2: Y80.45 (low of the American session on Feb 24)

Support 3: Y79.85 (Feb 23 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9140/50 (area of Feb 21-22 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (high of the American session on Feb 23)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9025 (Feb 24 high)

The current price: Chf0.8958

Support 1: Chf0.8930 (Feb 24 low)

Support 2: Chf0.8835 (low of the American session on Nov 4)

Support 3: Chf0.8760 (Nov 3 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3615 (Dec 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3550 (Dec 5 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3485 (Feb 24 high)

The current price: $1.3446

Support 1 : $1.3410 (support line from Feb 23)

Support 2 : $1.3355 (Feb 24 low)

Support 3 : $1.3270 (low of the American session on Feb 23)

09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y January +1.6% +1.8%

15:00 U.S.  Pending Home Sales (MoM) January -3.5% +1.1%

23:50 Japan  Retail sales, y/y January +2.5% -0.1%