Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 01-03-2012.

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01.03.2012

19:39

American focus: the euro fell for a fifth day versus the pound

The dollar depreciated against the majority of its most-traded counterparts as reports showed manufacturing from China to the U.S. expanded in February, increasing speculation that global growth is on the mend. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed today. Readings above 50 signal growth. A separate report showed U.S. personal spending increased 0.2 percent in January, less than the 0.4 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. grew at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, fueled by manufacturers, the Fed said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey. The growth is being echoed in other parts of the world, spurring investor confidence in the global economic recovery. China’s purchasing managers’ index rose for a third month in February, increasing to 51 from 50.5 in January, the statistics bureau and logistics federation said.

The euro fell for a fifth day versus the pound, the longest such streak since November 2010, after a second round of loans from the European Central Bank yesterday failed to bring down Portuguese bond yields. The yields on five-year Portuguese notes rose for an eighth day, touching 17.5 percent, the highest level since Feb. 7. Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The decision of the committee was unanimous, ISDA said on its website.

19:20

European stocks close:

European stocks rose, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s best start to a year since 1998, as Spanish and French borrowing costs dropped and a report showed initial jobless claims fell to a four-year low in the U.S.

Spain and France sold 12.5 billion euros ($16.7 billion) of bonds as yesterday’s European Central Bank loans to banks helped spur demand for debt. The rate on Italy’s two-year notes dropped below 2 percent for the first time since October 2010.

In the U.S., a Labor Department report showed initial jobless claims fell last week to a level matching a four-year low, dropping to 351,000. That’s the lowest since March 2008 and fewer than the average economist forecast of 355,000.

China’s manufacturing improved for a third straight month in February, signaling that the world’s second-biggest economy is maintaining momentum amid the euro area’s crisis.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all of the 18 western-European markets, except Norway. Germany’s DAX Index rose 1.3 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 1.4 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 1 percent.

Veolia Environnement jumped 15 percent to 10.55 euros, the largest gain on the Stoxx 600, after saying it’s in exclusive talks to sell Transdev, its mass-transit unit.

Cable & Wireless Worldwide Plc soared 15 percent to 31.98 pence after Tata Communications Ltd. said it may make a cash offer for the company and may decide on a transaction by the end of the month.

WPP Plc gained 3 percent to 827.5 pence after the world’s largest advertising agency reported that revenue rose to 10 billion pounds ($16 billion) in 2011. Analysts had estimated sales of 9.96 billion pounds. WPP predicted that revenue will grow 4 percent in 2012, faster than the industry average, because of its position in emerging markets.

PSA Peugeot Citroen slid 3.9 percent to 14.47 euros after Moody’s Investors Service cut the carmaker’s credit rating to junk. Peugeot announced a broad alliance with General Motors Co. yesterday that will include joint purchasing and vehicle development in an effort to revitalize their European operations.

18:40

FED’s Bernanke: “US growth is not as strong as Fed would like, financial conditions mean a slower recovery”

recovery is not complete, hsg lagging, mfg has been leading
recession has not affected US growth potential
banks, reiterates that exposure to EU debt is limited and impact from problems will come from other areas
Fed has no official position on prin reductions
some moves in commodities are inevitable, overall have had some good econ news
hsg demand will return when econ recovers
some moves in commodities are inevitable, overall have had some good econ news
hsg demand will return when econ recovers

18:13

U.S. stocks advanced

U.S. stocks advanced, following the longest monthly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in a year, as financial shares rallied and after government data showed that jobless claims declined to a four-year low.
Benchmark gauges rose as the number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to a level matching a four-year low, more evidence the labor market is healing. Stocks briefly pared gains as manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in February at a slower pace than forecast as orders cooled.
Dow 12,996.30 +44.23 +0.34%, Nasdaq 2,990.90 +24.01 +0.81%, S&P 500 1,373.76 +8.08 +0.59%
JPMorgan increased 2.9 percent, the most in the Dow, to $40.37. Bank of America climbed 2.3 percent to $8.15.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumped 4 percent to $119.71. The fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets agreed to buy Ariel Holdings Ltd.’s Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance businesses to expand property and casualty coverage.
Gap surged 7.9 percent to $25.20. Sales climbed 4 percent, beating the average projection for a 1.4 percent drop from analysts surveyed by Retail Metrics Inc. Unseasonably warm weather boosted purchases of spring merchandise.
Kroger gained 2.1 percent to $24.28 after forecasting 2012 earnings of at least $2.28 a share. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated $2.23.
Sotheby’s dropped 9.9 percent to $35.44. The publicly traded auctioneer of fine arts and collectibles said fourth- quarter profit fell 26 percent as sales slid.

17:53

Oil climbed a second day

Oil climbed a second day as the U.S. increased pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program and improving American economic data bolstered optimism that fuel demand will grow.

Futures in New York rose as much as 0.8 percent as U.S. officials escalated warnings that the nation may join Israel in attacking Iran. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to a level matching a four-year low. The Federal Reserve said yesterday that the housing market has shown improvement.

Crude oil for April delivery rose to $108.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have advanced 8 percent in the past year.

Brent oil for April settlement climbed $1.93, or 1.6 percent, to $124.59 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

17:34

Nomura lowered Q1 real GDP tracking estimate to 1.2% from 1.4%

16:36

Gold recovers after 5% fall

Gold prices rise as buyers returned to the physical market after a 5% reduction in price the day before.

On Wednesday, the spot price fell by 5% after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no hint of the third round of quantitative easing, which was a key factor supporting prices.

On the physical markets in Asia jewelers, traders and investors have shown a violent activity after the price reduction of almost $ 100.

Stocks of the world's largest gold ETF-secured fund SPDR Gold Trust rose on Wednesday, more than 9 tons, the biggest increase since January.

March futures of gold on COMEX today rose to 1724.6 dollars per ounce.

15:13

Goldman revised down tracking estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.3% after weak PCE data

Goldman says, that construction spending data and vehicle sales reported later today could also affect their tracking estimate.

15:00

U.S.: ISM Manufacturing, February 52.4 (forecast 54.6)

15:00

U.S.: Construction Spending, m/m, January -0.1% (forecast +1.1%)

14:46

Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.2900/1.3500

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y80.25, Y80.00

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0800

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.5800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

EUR/JPY Y110.00