Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 06-03-2012.

The euro declined to a two-week low versus the dollar after a report showed the region’s economy contracted last quarter, adding to signs the European debt crisis is hampering global growth. Europe’s gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent from the third quarter, the region’s statistics office said today, confirming an initial estimate published on Feb. 15. Exports fell 0.4 percent and household spending declined 0.4 percent. The ECB will keep its benchmark interest rate t a record low 1 percent on March 8. The euro dropped as Greece struggles to complete a bond exchange with private investors by March 8 in order to receive a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) bailout.

The yen rose against all its major counterparts and gained for a fifth day against the 17-nation currency as 20 percent of Greece’s private creditors have agreed to debt restructuring. The yen rose against the dollar for a second day as it rebounded from oversold levels for the first time in 13 days. Its 14-day relative strength index advanced above the 30 level, which indicates an asset may have declined too far, too quickly, for the first session since Feb. 16.

Australia’s dollar fell to a five-week low after the central bank left its benchmark rate at 4.25 percent and reiterated it has scope to ease monetary policy if needed. The Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement that while current settings are “appropriate for the moment,” there is scope for easier policy if demand weakens “materially.”

European stocks declined, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropping the most since November, as a report confirmed a contraction in the euro-area economy and investors weighed Greece’s chances of getting bondholders to accept a debt swap.

The euro area’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product declined 0.3 percent from the third quarter, the European Union’s statistics office said today, confirming an initial estimate published on Feb. 15.

The 12 members of the creditors’ steering committee that said they would join in the exchange of Greek debt have debt with a face value of at least 40 billion euros, compared with the 206 billion euros of bonds in private hands.

The goal of the swap, which runs until March 8, is to reduce by 53.5 percent the total of privately held Greek sovereign debt, helping the country avert an uncontrolled default.

National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European market except Greece. The Mediterranean country’s ASE Index rose 2.8 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 1.9 percent. France’s CAC 40 dropped 3.6 percent and Germany’s DAX slid 3.4 percent.

A gauge of banks accounted for the largest decline on the Stoxx 600, losing 4.2 percent. Commerzbank AG lost 6.7 percent to 1.77 euros. Societe Generale SA declined 7.8 percent to 23 euros.

Cable & Wireless Worldwide dropped 6.7 percent to 31.21 pence. Vodafone Group Plc may not make an offer for the company by a March 12 deadline, the Telegraph reported, citing market speculation.

A gauge of mining-company shares slid 2.6 percent as metal prices fell in London. Nyrstar lost 4.6 percent to 6.39 euros. Eramet SA, a refined nickel producer, tumbled 6.6 percent to 106.60 euros. Kazakhmys Plc, Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, retreated 2.9 percent to 924 pence.

Michael Page International Plc, a recruitment services company, tumbled 7.5 percent to 443 pence. The stock was cut to “neutral” (MPI) from “buy” at Citigroup Inc.

Q-Cells SE , a solar-cell maker, plunged 12 percent to 24.9 euro cents, its lowest on record, after losses exceeded sales in the fourth quarter and the company forecast further losses in 2012. Q-Cells posted a loss of 393 million euros in the last three months of 2011 on sales of 353 million euros in a preliminary report today.

National Bank of Greece SA climbed 7.8 percent to 2.49 euros and Alpha Bank SA jumped 19 percent to 1.55 euros.

U.S. stocks retreated, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its biggest decline since December, after a report showed that the European economy contracted and as concern grew about the success of a Greece swap deal.

Concern about a slowdown grew today as Europe’s economy contracted in the fourth quarter after investment, exports and consumer spending dropped. The private investors that so far declared their participation in Greece’s debt restructuring hold about 20 percent of the bonds involved in a swap required for an international bailout. The goal of the swap, which runs through March 8, is to reduce by 53.5 percent the total of privately held Greek debt, helping avert an uncontrolled default.

The European Central Bank’s balance sheet surged to a record 3.02 trillion euros ($3.96 trillion) last week, 31 percent bigger than the German economy. Lending to euro-area banks jumped 310.7 billion euros to 1.13 trillion euros in the week ended March 2, the Frankfurt-based ECB said in a statement.

Dow 12,760.81      -202.00 -1.56%, Nasdaq 2,908.22        -42.26   -1.43%, S&P 500       1,343.17        -21.16   -1.55%

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 declined as commodity, financial and industrial shares had the biggest losses, falling at least 1.9 percent.

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, dropped 3.4 percent to $9.53. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s biggest maker of construction and mining-equipment, lost 3.2 percent to $106.56. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) retreated 2.8 percent to $7.75.

Merck & Co. fell 1.5 percent to $37.89. The second-largest U.S. drugmaker forecast first-quarter profit that was less than analysts’ estimates because of an “unfavorable” currency effect. Earnings excluding one-time items will be 95 cents to 98 cents a share, Merck said in a statement. That was less than the $1.01 average of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Nutrisystem Inc. tumbled 10 percent to $10.65. The provider of prepared meals to help clients lose weight forecast annual earnings per share of no more than 55 cents, falling short of the average analyst projection of 92 cents a share, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Monster Worldwide Inc. added 8.8 percent to $8.18. The online recruiting service hired Stone Key Partners LLC and Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch to help it review strategic alternatives.

Oil dropped to a two-week low in New York as the European Union offered to restart negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, reducing the specter of war in the Middle East, source of 30 percent of the world’s crude.

Futures fell as much as 2 percent after EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, in a statement on behalf of China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., urged Iran’s nuclear envoy to meet her to seek an accord on the nation’s nuclear program. Commodities also declined as the euro-area economy contracted and on concern a Greek swap deal will fail.

Crude for April delivery fell to $104.61, the lowest intraday level since Feb. 21. Futures are up 6.2 percent this year.

Brent oil for April settlement declined $1.50, or 1.2 percent, to $122.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices fell by almost 2% against the fall of the euro caused by the excitement about the exchange of bonds in Greece and the euro-zone economic growth.

The dollar rose to a maximum of 2.5 weeks to the euro, which is putting pressure on concerns about the exchange of bonds of Greece. Gold's reputation as a reliable assetin recent years has declined, and investors prefer to keep funds in U.S. dollars.

Last week, gold prices have fallen by almost 4% since the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the market no hope for the third stage of monetary incentives.

China in January reduced the import of gold from Hong Kong by 15 percent compared to December in connection with a week's celebration of Chinese New Year in late January. In 2011, gold exports from Hong Kong to China have tripled, demonstrating the high interest in the precious metals of Chinese investors.

The physical demand in India - the world's largest consumer of gold - rose due to lower prices and the rupee.

March futures of gold on COMEX today fell to 1668.9 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350

USD/JPY Y81.25, Y81.50, Y82.50

AUD/USD $1.0650, $1.0770, $1.0800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.5800, $1.5740

NZD/USD $0.8300

Data:

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index February +0.6% +0.1% -0.5%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y February -1.8% -1.9%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) IV quarter +0.2% -0.3% -0.3%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) IV quarter +0.7% +0.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3280/300, $1.3265, $1.3250, $1.3230, $1.3160/70

Bids $1.3130, $1.3115/00, $1.3080, $1.3065/60, $1.3035/25

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0785/90, $1.0740/45, $1.0720/25, $1.0690/00, $1.0655/60

Bids $1.0570/50, $1.0530/25, $1.0510/00, $1.0495

Resistance 3: Y81.90 (Mar 5 high) Resistance 2: Y81.60 (session high) Resistance 1: Y81.15 (Mar 5 low) Current price: Y81.12 Support 1:Y80.80 (session low, Mar 1 low) Support 2:Y80.20 (Feb 29 low) Support 3:Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 and 28 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (high of February)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9180 (session high, close price on Feb 17)

Current price: Chf0.9173

Support 1: Chf0.9150 (area of Mar 2-3 high)

Support 2: Chf0.9100 (Mar 5 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (Mar 1 high)

Комментарии: на Н4 формируется дивергенция между ценой и индикатором MACD, что указывает на рост вероятности коррекции.

Resistance 3 : $1.5880 (a sessional maximum and a maximum on March, 5th)

Resistance 2 : $1.5840 (a line of resistance (the top border of the descending channel) from March, 2nd)

Resistance 1 : $1.5780 (a minimum on March, 5th)

The current price: $1.5773

Support 1 : $1.5760 (a sessional minimum)

Support 2 : $1.5720 (the bottom border of the descending channel from March, 2nd, a minimum on February, 24th)

Support 3 : $1.5650 (a minimum 14, 16, on February, 22-23nd)

Комментарии: сейчас пара тестирует линию поддержки от 13 января. В случае преодоление данной поддержки и закрепления ниже целью дальнейшего снижения будет $1,5650.

Resistance 3 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.3240 (Mar 5 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3160 (Mar 5 low)

Current price: $1.3135

Support 1 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)

Support 2 : $1.2970 (Feb 16 low)

Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

Комментарии: на Н4 формируется дивергенция между ценой и индикатором MACD, что указывает на рост вероятности коррекции.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350 

USD/JPY Y81.25, Y81.50, Y82.50

AUD/USD $1.0650, $1.0770, $1.0800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.5800, $1.5740

NZD/USD $0.8300

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y February -0.3% -0.3%

00:30 Australia Current Account, bln IV quarter -5.6 -7.9 -8.4

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January -0.2% -0.3% 0.0%

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

Yesterday the yen rallied versus all of its most-traded counterparts after China said it will lower its target for economic growth, boosting demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency. China pared the nation’s economic growth target from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, a signal that leaders are determined to cut reliance on exports and capital spending in favor of consumption. Officials will aim for inflation of about 4 percent this year, unchanged from the 2011 goal, according to Premier Wen Jiabao’s state-of-the-nation speech, delivered at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing.

The euro gained against most major currencies as Greece said it expected private creditors to accept its debt-swap terms because it constitutes “the best offer.” The euro rose against the dollar after European retail sales unexpectedly increased in January after four months of declines as growth in France helped to outweigh a drop in Germany. European Union leaders will hold a teleconference on March 9 to review the outcome of the 106 billion-euro ($140 billion) debt swap with Greece’s private creditors. Success depends on how many investors agree to the writedown by March 8 and the Greek government has set a 75 percent participation rate as a threshold for proceeding with the transaction.

Resistance 3: Y82.75 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.20 (high of May)

Resistance 1: Y81.85 (Mar 5 high)

The current price: Y81.39

Support 1:Y80.15 (Mar 5 low)

Support 2:Y80.80 (Mar 1 low)

Support 3:Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 and 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Feb 15 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9160 (Mar 5 high)

The current price: Chf0.9135

Support 1: Chf0.9105 (Mar 5 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9075 (МА (233) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9045 (Mar 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6050 (Nov 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5975/90 (Feb 29 high, Mar 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5880/95 (session high, Mar 1 high)

The current price: $1.5850

Support 1 : $1.5830 (low of the European session on Feb 27)

Support 2 : $1.5785 (Mar 5 low)

Support 3 : $1.5720 (Feb 24 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3355 (Mar 1 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3240 (Mar 5 high)

The current price: $1.3194

Support 1 : $1.3160 (Mar 5 low)

Support 2 : $1.3115 (Feb 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3216 +0,10%

GBP/USD $1,5863 +0,17%

USD/CHF Chf0,9122 -0,15%

USD/JPY Y81,56 -0,28%

EUR/JPY Y107,78 -0,20%

GBP/JPY Y129,35 -0,13%

AUD/USD $1,0669 -0,58%

NZD/USD $0,8205 -1,01%

USD/CAD C$0,9944 +0,60%

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y February -0.3%

00:30 Australia Current Account, bln IV quarter -5.6 -7.9

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January -0.2% -0.3%

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 0 4.25% 4.25%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement 0

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index February +0.6% +0.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y February -1.8%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) IV quarter +0.2% -0.3%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) IV quarter +0.7% +0.7%

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index February 64.1 62.2

21:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks