The euro strengthened on speculation Greece will attract enough investors to make its debt-swap plan a success, adding to optimism the region’s debt crisis will be contained.
The common currency rose for a second day versus the dollar after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and President Mario Draghi said recent surveys showed signs of economic stabilization.
The dollar had gained against most major currencies in the period as investors sought safety on concern the Greek debt swap might unravel.
Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer.
Speaking at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB meeting, Draghi said “the risk environment has improved enormously” and recent surveys “confirm signs of a stabilization” in the euro-area economy. The outlook is “still subject to downside risks,” he said. Policy makers didn’t discuss changing interest rates at their meeting, Draghi said.
The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits rose 8,000 to 362,000 last week, the Labor Department said, keeping the average over the past four weeks close to a four- year low. A report from the Department tomorrow will show that employers added 208,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of economists.
EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3280, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.25, Y81.50, Y81.80, Y82.00
AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0800
EUR/CHF Chf1.2050
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5950
USD/CHF Chf0.9250
EUR/GBP stg0.8340
Data:
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) February -0.4% +0.2% +0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) February -0.8% -0.9% -0.9%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January -2.9% +1.1% +1.6%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) January +0.9% +1.1% +1.8%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
The euro strengthened the most in two weeks against the yen on speculation Greece will attract enough investors to make its debt-swap plan a success, adding to optimism the region’s debt crisis will be contained. Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer. The 17-nation currency climbed for a second day against the dollar as European Central Bank refrain from cutting interest rates today and signal the region’s economy is improving.
The yen fell against all of its major counterparts after Japan reported a record current-account deficit, threatening to undermine the currency’s haven status. The yen fell toward a nine-month low versus the dollar after the Ministry of Finance said Japan had a current-account deficit of 437.3 billion yen in January. That’s the biggest shortfall since comparable data began in 1985 and was more than the median estimate of a 320 billion-yen deficit in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
EUR/USD: during the European session the pair gain on a figure, updated a week’s high on $1,3264.
GBP/USD: during the European session the pair gain, holds nearby $1,5800.
USD/JPY: during the European the pair gain, restored to week’s high.
At 1230GMT, US initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at 351,000, remaining in the very narrow range seen in the last three weeks. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1445GMT and is followed at 1500GMT by Q4 services data and then at 1530GMT by Natural Gas Storage. Later data includes 1700GMT Flow of Funds and the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply.
Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y81.85 (Mar 5 high)
Resistance 1: Y81.55 (session high)
The current price: Y81.43
Support 1: Y81.05 (session low)
Support 2: Y80.55 (Mar 7 low)
Support 3: Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 and 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Feb 15 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9160 (high of the European session)
The current price: Chf0.9122
Support 1: Chf0.9105 (Mar 5 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9070 (Mar 1 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9045 (Mar 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5975 (Mar 1 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5880 (Mar 6 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5830/40 (session high, 50.0% FIBO $1.5695-$1.5990)
The current price: $1.5805
Support 1 : $1.5750 (low of the European session, support line from Mar 7)
Support 2 : $1.5695 (Mar 6-7 low)
Support 3 : $1.5650 (Feb 22-23 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3355 (Mar 1 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 low)
Resistance 1 : $1.3225/40 (session high, Mar 5 high)
The current price: $1.3209
Support 1 : $1.3165 (low of the European session)
Support 2 : $1.3095 (Mar 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3280, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.25, Y81.50, Y81.80, Y82.00
AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0800
EUR/CHF Chf1.2050
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5950
USD/CHF Chf0.9250
EUR/GBP stg0.8340
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed February 46.3 5.2 -15.4
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate February 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current February 44.1 46.3 45.9
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook February 47.1 50.1
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y February -6.9% -8.6%
The yen weakened against all of its major peers after Japan posted a record current-account deficit, threatening to undermine the currency’s haven status. Japan posted a current-account deficit of 437.3 billion yen ($5.4 billion) in January, the Ministry of Finance said today. That is the biggest shortfall since comparable data began in 1985 and was more than the median estimate of a 320 billion-yen gap in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Separate figures showed Japan’s economy contracted less than the government’s initial estimate last quarter.
The euro advanced for a second day against the yen before Greece’s debt-swap offer to private creditors concludes at 10 p.m. Athens time today.
The dollar was 0.7 percent from a nine- month high against the yen as speculation eased that the Federal Reserve will provide further stimulus. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits was unchanged at 351,000 in the week ended March 3, according to the median of economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the figures are released today. That would match the lowest level since March 2008.
The New Zealand dollar gained versus 15 of its 16 peers as Asian stocks extended a global rally, boosting demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left its official cash rate at 2.5 percent. Governor Alan Bollard said the RBNZ’s forecasts “are not inconsistent with a story that would see that remaining in place for much of this year.”
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose.
European events start at 0800GMT, the Swiss National bank publishes an Accountability Report for 2011. The ECB decision is due at 1245GMT with the usual press conference with the ECB President Mario Draghi following at 1330GMT. UK data includes Vehicle Licensing Statistics at 0930GMT, while core-European data rounds off at 1100GMT with German industrial output data. At 1230GMT, US initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at 351,000, remaining in the very narrow range seen in the last three weeks. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1445GMT and is followed at 1500GMT by Q4 services data and then at 1530GMT by Natural Gas Storage. Later data includes 1700GMT Flow of Funds and the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply.
Yesterday the euro rallied from a two-week low against the dollar as investors with 58 percent of the Greek bonds eligible have indicated they’ll participate in the so- called private-sector involvement of the nation’s bailout. The nation has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds to accept the swap if it receives sufficient consent from investors.
The dollar rose against the yen after a report that the Federal Reserve is considering sterilized bond purchases. Brazil’s real tumbled against all of its most-traded counterparts as the government prepared measures to control capital inflows and stem the currency’s appreciation. The yen extended losses against the dollar to 0.2 percent to trade at 81.04 after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. central bank was considering a monetary program that would also subdue concern about future inflation. The program could see the Fed borrow an equivalent amount of money that it used to purchase the bonds, the report said.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell showed new week’s low, but restored later.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair traded in range $1.5695-$1.5750.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair gain, closed day above Y81.00.
European events start at 0800GMT, the Swiss National bank publishes an Accountability Report for 2011. The ECB decision is due at 1245GMT with the usual press conference with the ECB President Mario Draghi following at 1330GMT. UK data includes Vehicle Licensing Statistics at 0930GMT, while core-European data rounds off at 1100GMT with German industrial output data. At 1230GMT, US initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at 351,000, remaining in the very narrow range seen in the last three weeks. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1445GMT and is followed at 1500GMT by Q4 services data and then at 1530GMT by Natural Gas Storage. Later data includes 1700GMT Flow of Funds and the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (Feb 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9250 (Feb 15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9200 (Mar 7 high)
The current price: Chf0.9152
Support 1: Chf0.9135 (23.6% FIBO Chf0.9200-Chf0.8930)
Support 2: Chf0.9105 (Mar 5 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9070 (Mar 1 high)

Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y81.85 (Mar 5 high)
Resistance 1: Y81.35 (Mar 8 high)
The current price: Y81.26
Support 1: Y81.05 (session low)
Support 2: Y80.55 (Mar 7 low)
Support 3: Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 and 28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5880 (Mar 6 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5840 (50.0% FIBO $1.5695-$1.5990)
Resistance 1 : $1.5785 (Mar 5 low)
The current price: $1.5750
Support 1 : $1.5695 (Mar 6-7 low)
Support 2 : $1.5650 (Feb 22-23 low)
Support 3 : $1.5600 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 low)
Resistance 2 : $1.3240 (Mar 5 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3185 (23.6% FIBO $1.3095-$1.3485)
The current price: $1.3168
Support 1 : $1.3095 (Mar 7 low)
Support 2 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)
Support 3 : $1.2945 (Feb 16 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3148 +0,27%
GBP/USD $1,5741 +0,17%
USD/CHF Chf0,9165 -0,24%
USD/JPY Y81,09 +0,25%
EUR/JPY Y106,62 +0,53%
GBP/JPY Y127,61 +0,40%
AUD/USD $1,0581 +0,28%
NZD/USD $0,8163 +0,49%
USD/CAD C$0,9974 -0,44%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed February 46.3 5.2
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate February 5.1% 5.2%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current February 44.1 46.3
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook February 47.1
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y February -6.9%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) February -0.4% +0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) February -0.8% -0.9%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January -2.9% +1.1%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) January +0.9% +1.1%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement 0
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 1.00% 1.00%
13:15 Canada Housing Starts February 198 199
13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference 0
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index January +0.1% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 03/03/2012 351 352
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement 0
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