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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 12-03-2012.
The dollar gained against most of its major counterparts as stronger U.S. economic data reduced bets the Federal Reserve would add to monetary stimulus, bolstering demand for the currency. Retail sales in the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in February, the most in five months, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a survey before Commerce Department figures due tomorrow. That would follow data on March 9 that showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February after rising by a revised 284,000 the prior month. The unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent.
The 17-nation euro pared losses against the yen before European finance ministers meet in Brussels to review a second aid package for Greece. The euro held a two-week decline against the dollar before ministers from the region’s 17 nations gather in Brussels today to sign off on a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) second package for Greece after bondholders agreed last week to take a loss on the country’s debt.The world’s biggest banks are less pessimistic about the euro as the European Central Bank provides unlimited cash to the region’s financial system, Germany may avoid recession and Greece looks to complete the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history.
- Hopeful Greece elections won't delay reforms
Cable bids seen placed toward $1.5600, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.5585/80.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.40/45
AUD/USD $1.0640, $1.0650
GBP/USD $1.5850
EUR/JPY Y107.00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5800/10, $1.5730/50, $1.5725, $1.5700, $1.5650
Bids $1.5600, $1.5585/80, $1.5550, $1.5535/30, $1.5520
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8490/505, stg0.8450/55, stg0.8440/45, stg0.8425/30, stg0.8400/10
Bids stg0.8350/40, stg0.8300
The dollar rose on speculation U.S. economic reports pointing to stronger growth will reduce the likelihood the Federal Reserve will add to monetary stimulus, bolstering support for the currency.
The dollar is trading on a generally firmer footing after the stronger than expected payrolls report on Friday. Data last week showed U.S. employers boosted payrolls more than economists forecast in February.
The euro fell against the yen before European finance ministers meet in Brussels today to review a second aid package for Greece.
The euro was under pressure against the dollar before ministers from the region’s 17 nations gather in Brussels today to sign off on a 130 billion-euro second package for Greece after bondholders agreed last week to take a loss on the country’s debt.
EUR/USD: during european session the pair was limited $1,3080-$ 1,3135.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased, showed low in $1,5600 area.
USD/JPY: the pair receded from the high reached on Friday in Y82,10 area.
At 1800GMT, the US Treasury Monthly Budget Statement is due.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3145/50
Bids $1.3100, $1.3080/70, $1.3050/40, $1.3035/25, $1.3010/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0685/90, $1.0655/60, $1.0630/35, $1.0595/00, $1.0570/80, $1.0540/60
Bids $1.0480/75, $1.0450, $1.0440/35, $1.0430/25
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00
Bids Y82.10/00, Y81.90/85, Y81.50/45, Y81.10/00
Resistance 3: Y83.10 (Apr 20’2011 high)
Resistance 2: Y82.80 (Apr 27’2011 high)
Resistance 1: Y82.65 (Mar 9 high)
Current price: Y82.20
Support 1: Y82.10 (session low)
Support 2: Y81.50 (Mar 9 low)
Support 3: Y80.55 (Mar 7 low)
Комментарии: ряд технических факторов (дивергенции между ценой и индикатором MACD на D1, RSI>70 - сигнал перекупленности на D1) указывает на высокую вероятность начала коррекции.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9340 (Jan 25 higb)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (high of February)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9220 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9191
Support 1: Chf0.9180 (session low)
Support 1: Chf0.9110 (intraday low on Mar 9)
Support 3: Chf0.9080/70 (area of Mar 8-9 lows, Mar 1 high)
Resistance 3 : $1.5750 (intraday low on Mar 9)
Resistance 2 : $1.5700 (session high, Mar 6-7 lows)
Resistance 1 : $1.5655 (low of asian session)
Current price: $1.5636
Support 1 : $1.5610 (session low, 50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)
Support 2 : $1.5520 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)
Support 3 : $1.5500 (psychological level)
Resistance 3 : $1.3280 (area of Mar 1 low, Mar 8-9 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.3210 (intraday low on Mar 9)
Resistance 1 : $1.3135 (session high)
Current price: $1.3108
Support 1 : $1.3080 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2975 (low of February)
Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.40/45
AUD/USD $1.0640, $1.0650
GBP/USD $1.5850
EUR/JPY Y107.00
Commerzbank analysts have a negative outlook for the EUR/USD that includes strong resistance at 1.3291/1.3325: “We continue to regard the recent high at 1.3487 as an interim peak and regard the market as directly offered intraday below 1.3291/1.3325”, wrote Karen Jones, targeting 1.2974/54 (Feb-low) ahead of 1.2624 (Jan-low). In conclusion, 1.3487 high marks the end of the upside correction and an eventual drop below 1.2624 will pave the way to 1.2000 region.
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence February 40.0 40.8 39.5
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell ahead of U.S. figures tomorrow forecast to show retail sales rose, reducing the case for additional Federal Reserve stimulus measures. Retail sales in the U.S. probably increased 1.1 percent in February, the most in five months, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department releases the figures tomorrow. The Federal Open Market Committee meets tomorrow to set monetary policy.
The so-called Aussie weakened against most of its 16 major peers before a report tomorrow economists expect to show Australia’s home loans declined.
New Zealand’s dollar declined against the yen, halting a three-day advance, after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, cut its milk price target.
China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing for the yuan by the most since August 2010 after the government reported the biggest trade deficit in at least 22 years. The currency fell the most in seven weeks as People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Beijing the exchange rate is linked to the balance of payments. The nation’s trade shortfall was $31.5 billion in February, four times the previous largest deficit, according to data released on March 10 by the customs bureau. The central bank will use exchange rates and interest rates to manage the economy as Europe’s debt crisis damps global demand, it said in a statement today.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, lowered below $1.31.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was in range $1.5655-$1.5675.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, after growth on Friday.
On Monday US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index and then at 1430GMT by the weekly Retail Trade Index. At 1800GMT, the US Treasury Monthly Budget Statement is due.
On Monday the yen rallied versus all of its most-traded counterparts after China said it will lower its target for economic growth, boosting demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency. China pared the nation’s economic growth target from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, a signal that leaders are determined to cut reliance on exports and capital spending in favor of consumption. The euro gained against most major currencies as Greece said it expected private creditors to accept its debt-swap terms because it constitutes “the best offer.” The euro rose against the dollar after European retail sales unexpectedly increased in January after four months of declines as growth in France helped to outweigh a drop in Germany.
On Tuesday the euro declined to a two-week low versus the dollar after a report showed the region’s economy contracted last quarter, adding to signs the European debt crisis is hampering global growth. Europe’s gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent from the third quarter, the region’s statistics office said, confirming an initial estimate published on Feb. 15. Exports fell 0.4 percent and household spending declined 0.4 percent. The yen rose against all its major counterparts and gained for a fifth day against the 17-nation currency as 20 percent of Greece’s private creditors have agreed to debt restructuring.
On Wednesday the euro rallied from a two-week low against the dollar as investors with 58 percent of the Greek bonds eligible have indicated they’ll participate in the so- called private-sector involvement of the nation’s bailout. The nation has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds to accept the swap if it receives sufficient consent from investors.
The dollar rose against the yen after a report that the Federal Reserve is considering sterilized bond purchases. Brazil’s real tumbled against all of its most-traded counterparts as the government prepared measures to control capital inflows and stem the currency’s appreciation.
On Thursday the euro strengthened on speculation Greece will attract enough investors to make its debt-swap plan a success, adding to optimism the region’s debt crisis will be contained. The common currency rose for a second day versus the dollar after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and President Mario Draghi said recent surveys showed signs of economic stabilization. The dollar had gained against most major currencies in the period as investors sought safety on concern the Greek debt swap might unravel. Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer.
On Friday the dollar rose to a 10-month high versus the yen as a report showed U.S. job growth during the past six months was the strongest since 2006, dimming prospects for further Federal Reserve monetary stimulus. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February after rising by a revised 284,000 the prior month, data from the Labor Department showed today. The unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments in congressional testimony last week damped speculation the central bank will introduce another round of asset purchases.
The 17-nation euro weakened for the first time in three days against the dollar after Greece said it triggered an option compelling investors to take part in its debt restructuring.
Asian stocks rose for a second day as Greece struck a deal with creditors to help Europe contain its debt crisis and slowing inflation gave Chinese authorities room to stimulate growth in the world’s second largest economy.
Nikkei 225 9,929.74 +160.78 +1.65%
Hang Seng 21,086 +185.27 +0.89%
S&P/ASX 200 4,211.99 +40.95 +0.98%
Shanghai Composite 2,439.46 +19.19 +0.79%
Sony Corp., which depends on Europe for a fifth of its sales, rose 4.3 percent.
Guangzhou R&F Properties Company Ltd. led Chinese developers higher on speculation China may ease curbs on bank lending. Newcrest Mining Ltd. advanced 4.2 percent in Sydney after metal prices gained.
Lynas Corp. jumped 9.3 percent even after a local group filed an appeal to block the company’s rare-earths refinery project in Malaysia.
European stocks climbed for a third day as a report showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than predicted and Greece’s private creditors agreed to a debt swap.
Greece’s government said that bondholders tendered 152 billion euros of Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, for the debt swap. The Mediterranean nation will swap their holdings for new securities under the debt exchange. Creditors also tendered 20 billion euros of foreign-law bonds, according to the country’s Finance Ministry. Greece’s use of collective-action clauses forcing investors to take part in the sovereign restructuring should trigger $3 billion of insurance payouts under rules governing credit- default swap contracts.
National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western- European markets. Germany’s DAX Index gained 0.7 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.5 percent, while France’s CAC 40 Index advanced 0.3 percent.
London Stock Exchange Group Plc surged 6.4 percent to 955 pence, its biggest increase in eight months. The owner of Europe’s oldest independent bourse agreed to buy a majority stake in
Straumann Holding AG and Nobel Biocare Holding AG, two Swiss makers of dental implants, surged 8.7 percent to 153.80 Swiss francs and 8.1 percent to 11.40 francs, respectively, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its recommendations on the companies.
Lagardere plunged 6.1 percent to 22.32 euros. The owner of the Europe 1 radio station posted full-year adjusted net income of 226 million euros, compared with 284 million euros a year earlier. The publisher forecast flat Ebit this year.
Hermes International SCA, the French maker of Birkin bags and silk scarves, lost 2.1 percent to 264.60 euros. The stock was cut to underweight from neutral at HSBC.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its fourth weekly rally, after data showing stronger-than-forecast growth in payrolls last month bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy.
Equities rose today amid the best six-month streak of job growth since 2006. The 227,000 increase in payrolls last month topped the median projection of economists. The jobless rate held at 8.3 percent. The latest pickup in employment may not be convincing enough for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who last week said the labor market remains “far from normal,” a sign policy makers continue to see merit in keeping interest rates low for several years.
Investors also watched developments in Europe’s attempts to tame its debt crisis. Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history after cajoling private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt, opening the way for a second rescue package.
Dow 12,922.02 +14.08 +0.11%, Nasdaq 2,988.34 +17.92 +0.60%, S&P 500 1,370.87 +4.96 +0.36%
JPMorgan (JPM) advanced 1.46 percent, the most in the Dow, to $41.35. Citigroup increased 0.59 percent to $34.70.
Lennar increased 3.08 percent to $25.87, while D.R. Horton climbed 6.25 percent to $15.48. The shares were raised to the equivalent of buy at Credit Suisse.
Pall Corp. fell 3.1 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $59.28. The supplier of filters for drugmakers and refineries was cut to neutral by Wedbush Securities, citing softness in markets including China.
Resistance 3 : $1.5830 (Mar 8-9 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5750 (low of the European session on Mar 9)
Resistance 1 : $1.5695 (Mar 6-7 low)
The current price: $1.5661
Support 1 : $1.5655 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5600 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.5530 (Jan 24-25 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3230 (high of the European session on Mar 9)
Resistance 2 : $1.3165 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3125 (session high)
The current price: $1.3089
Support 1 : $1.3085 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3040 (Feb 15 low)
Support 3 : $1.2975 (Feb 16 low)
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence February 40.0 40.8
18:00 U.S. Federal budget February -27.4 -229.3
19:15 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks 0
23:50 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January +1.4% +0.4%
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