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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-02-2012.
The euro strengthened against the dollar and yen on speculation a European Central Bank allotment of three-year loans to banks tomorrow will bolster investor appetite for the region’s assets. After lending euro-region banks a record 489 billion euros ($658 billion) in its first longer-term refinancing operation, or LTRO, on Dec. 21, the Frankfurt-based ECB tomorrow will probably grant them another 470 billion euros this week. Using the operations, banks can borrow from the ECB at around 1 percent and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding securities such as the 10-year Italian government bond, yielding 5.35 percent. The 17-nation currency earlier pared its gain against the greenback after Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said the nation will hold a referendum to ratify the European fiscal compact, raising concern about the measure’s implementation.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell 0.3 percent to 78.299 after touching 78.219, the lowest since Dec. 8. The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 70.8 this month, a 12-month high, from 61.5 in January, figures from the New York-based private research group showed.
The pound approached a three-week high against the dollar after the Confederation of British Industry said its retail sales gauge rose in February to the highest reading in eight months, boosting speculation the nation will avoid a recession. The gauge increased to minus 2 from minus 22 the previous month, the London-based business lobby said in a report today. A measure of expected sales for next month was at 2, indicating retailers expect sales to improve in March, the report showed.
SNB will not tolerate any strengthening of the franc
SNB will hold its policy on the franc, while uncertainty remains in the EU
The Swiss franc is still strong, will fade with time
European stocks climbed as a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence beat economists’ forecasts, even after durable-goods orders in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly slumped.
The ECB will allocate cash from its long-term refinancing operation tomorrow. It will probably provide 470 billion euros ($632 billion) of three-year cash.
Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, won a parliamentary vote on Greek aid after the close of European trading yesterday. She warned lawmakers that pushing Greece out of the euro risked “incalculable” damage.
Greece’s credit ratings were cut to “selective default” by Standard & Poor’s after the Mediterranean nation negotiated the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history. S&P lowered Greece’s rating from CC, two levels above default, after the government added clauses to its debt designed to include investors unwilling to take part in the exchange, the New York- based company said in a statement yesterday.
National benchmark indexes climbed in 12 of the 18 western- European markets. Germany’s DAX Index added 0.6 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.2 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.4 percent. Greece’s ASE Index was the worst performing index, falling 3 percent.
KBC rallied 4.7 percent to 17.42 euros after Santander agreed to buy a unit of Belgium’s biggest bank and insurer by market value.
Belvedere SA, a French vodka maker, climbed 3.8 percent to 68.70 euros after Les Echos reported that the company plans to sell its Sobieski brand to cut debt.
Eiffage SA jumped 4.8 percent to 30.10 euros after the French builder’s rating was raised to “neutral” from “underperform” at Bank of America Corp.
TomTom plunged 15 percent to 3.75 euros after forecasting that revenue and earnings per share will fall this year. Europe’s biggest maker of portable navigation devices said sales will decline to 1.1 billion euros in 2012 from 1.27 billion euros in 2011 and adjusted earnings per share will decrease to about 35 cents per share from 55 cents.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose for a fourth day, poised for the longest rally in more than a month, after a better-than-estimated consumer confidence report.
Stocks rose as the Conference Board’s index increased more than forecast in February, to 70.8. Economists predicted the gauge would climb to 63. Earlier today, stocks fell as orders for U.S. durable goods fell in January by the most in three years. Separate data showed that home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped more than forecast in December to the lowest level since the housing crisis began in mid-2006.
Dow 13,013.86 +32.35 +0.25%, Nasdaq 2,988.32 +22.16 +0.75%, S&P 500 1,372.52 +4.93 +0.36%
Priceline added 7.5 percent to $636.15. The company has weathered the European debt crisis better than rivals Expedia Inc. and Orbitz Worldwide Inc., and it’s expanding into emerging markets and new businesses such as car rentals. The number of countries Priceline serves has jumped more than 60 percent in the past year to over 160.
Office Depot increased 15 percent to $3.48. The second- largest U.S. office-supply chain posted earnings excluding some items of 3 cents a share in the fourth quarter. Analysts, on average, expected the company to break even, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Micron Technology Inc. added 5.3 percent to $9.01 after buying Intel Corp.’s stake in two wafer factories for about $600 million as the companies expand their venture for chips that provide the storage in mobile phones and tablets. Intel rallied 1.2 percent to $27.22.
Apollo Group sank 13 percent to $44.72. The for-profit educator cut its operating profit forecast for 2012 to no more than $725 million, below the previous estimate of as much as $750 million.
Southwestern Energy Co. fell 5.2 percent to $33.50. The natural gas producer cut its 2012 production estimate and reported fourth-quarter earnings of 45 cents a share, missing the average analyst estimate of 47 cents.
Oil fell for a second day after U.S. orders for durable goods dropped in January by the most in three years, signaling slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.
Futures declined as much as 0.9 percent in New York as data from the Commerce Department showed bookings for goods meant to last at least three years slumped 4 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow will show U.S. crude supplies rose to the highest level in five months last week, according to the median of analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Durable goods orders were projected to decline 1 percent, according to the median forecast of 80 economists.
Crude oil for April delivery fell to $107.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract yesterday slid 1.1 percent to $108.56, ending the longest upward move since January 2010. Prices are up 11 percent in the past year.
Brent oil for April settlement dropped $1.40, or 1.1 percent, to $122.77 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold is more expensive due to the increase of the euro economy on the eve of release of money by the European Central Bank. On Tuesday, the euro rose to a three-month highagainst the dollar as the ECB on Wednesday to allocate 500 billion euro market. Analysts believe that this news is already incorporated in the price, and further its growth will be limited.
Last week, gold has risen in price by 3.3 percent to a three-month high, but growth stoppedas it approaches the $ 1.790 an ounce.
Rising prices caused a reduction in physical demand in India - the largest consumer of gold- even with an increase in the rupee against the dollar.
March futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1784.6 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.3340, $1.3375, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3575
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.75, Y80.90
AUD/USD $1.0620, $1.0650, $1.0725, $1.0800
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5850, $1.5900
EUR/CHF chf1.2050
Data:
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey March 5.9 6.1 6.0
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator January 0.94 0.92
08:15 Switzerland Employment Level IV quarter 4.05 4.03 4.04
09:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Jordan Speak 0
10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator February -0.21 -0.15 -0.18
10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index February 93.4 94.0 94.4
11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance February -22 -15 -2
The euro strengthened as the European Central Bank prepared to allot a round of three-year loans tomorrow to improve the liquidity of the region’s banks.
The common currency advanced amid speculation cash injected by the ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation will spur demand for higher-yielding assets.
The dollar and yen fell before a U.S. report forecast to show consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy improved this month.
The pound rose against the greenback after U.K. retail sales data.
The pound approached a three-week high against the dollar before the Confederation of British Industry releases its retail-sales data.
EUR/USD: the pair grown in $1.3450 area.
GBP/USD: the pair was trading in $1,5850 area.
USD/JPY: the pair showed high in Y80,80 area. Later the rate receded in Y80.50 area.
At 1500GMT, consumer confidence is forecast to rise to a reading of 63.0 in February after dipping to 61.1 in January.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3565/70, $1.3550/60, $1.3510, $1.3500
Bids $1.3375/55, $1.3340/35, $1.3305/290
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5980, $1.5950/60, $1.5930, $1.5900
Bids $1.5800, $1.5790, $1.5765/60, $1.5750
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0900, $1.0840/45, $1.0810/15, $1.0790/00
Bids $1.0715/10, $1.0685/80, $1.0665/60, $1.0655/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8530, stg0.8500/20
Bids stg0.8445/40, stg0.8420, stg0.8400, stg0.8385/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y110.00, Y109.75/80, Y109.45/50, Y109.20/25, Y108.75/80, Y108.45/50
Bids Y107.75/70, Y107.45/40, Y107.25/20, Y106.85/80
USD/JPY
Offers Y81.75/80, Y81.65/70, Y81.40/45, Y81.20/25, Y80.80/00
Bids Y80.05/00, Y79.90/80, Y79.75/70, Y79.60/50, Y79.40/35
Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y81.70 (Feb 27 high)
Resistance 1: Y80.80 (session high)
Current price: Y80.45
Support 1:Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 lows, session low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2:Y79.50 (Feb 21 low, 38,2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y81.70)
Support 3:Y78.90 (50.0 % FIBO Y76.00-Y81.70)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (Feb 20-21 lows, high of american session on Feb 23)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9010 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8962
Support 1: Chf0.8930/20 (Nov 8-9 lows and Feb 27 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8900 (psychological level)
Support 3: Chf0.8750 (low of November, МА (200) for D1)
Resistance 3 : $1.5930 (high of February)
Resistance 2 : $1.5900 (Feb 27 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5875 (session high)
Current price: $1.5847
Support 1 : $1.5830 (intraday low)
Support 2 : $1.5800 (38,2 % FIBO $1.5650-$ 1.5900, Feb 27 low)
Support 3 : $1.5770 (50.0 % FIBO $1.5650-$ 1.5900, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 3 : $1.3610 (Nov 18 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3540 (high of December)
Resistance 1 : $1.3485 (Feb 24-27 highs)
Current price: $1.3437
Support 1 : $1.3430 (support line from Feb 16)
Support 2 : $1.3350 (Feb 24-27 lows)
Support 3 : $1.3290 (38.2% FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480)
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell for a second day versus the yen as concern that Greece will struggle to contain its debt crisis damped demand for higher-yielding assets. Both South Pacific nations’ currencies slid after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s credit ratings to “Selective Default.” S&P cut Greece’s credit grade from CC, two levels above default, after the government added clauses to its debt designed to mop up investors unwilling to take part in an exchange, the New York-based company said in a statement yesterday.
Greece published the formal offer document last week for its agreement to exchange bonds for new securities, with investors taking a 53.5 percent reduction in the value of their investments. The restructuring’s use of so-called collective action clauses would trigger credit-default swap insurance contracts on the nation’s debt, according to the rules of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association.
The euro erased losses against the yen before the European Central Bank allots a second round of unlimited three-year funds tomorrow to help shore up the region’s banks.
Europe’s central bank will calls for bids today in the tender of unlimited three-year funds and will announce the allotment amount tomorrow. Financial institutions may ask the ECB for 470 billion euros ($631 billion) in funds, according to the median estimate.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose, fixed above $1.3400.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased, receded from a level of highs.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, after showed new month’s high.
Release of the final state CPI data from Germany will see the flash HICP data for February today, although scheduled data releases in Europe start at 0710GMT with German GfK consumer confidence data. EMU data at 1000GMT includes the economic sentiment survey and business climate indicator for February. At 1730GMT there is a speech by SNB vice president Thomas Jordan at the Neue Zuercher Zeitung panel discussion, in Zurich. US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall data, while at 1330GMT, durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.0% in January, after rising 3.0% in December. The weekly Johnson Redbook Chain Store Sales data is then due, at 1355GMT, just ahead of the 1400GMT release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. At 1500GMT, consumer confidence is forecast to rise to a reading of 63.0 in February after dipping to 61.1 in January.
Yesterday the yen rallied against all of its major counterparts as speculation increased that the surge in oil prices this month and Europe’s unsettled debt crisis may weigh on economic recoveries, boosting demand for safety.
The euro extended its decline, falling by the most in more than three months against the yen, after Standard & Poor’s placed the region’s rescue fund on negative outlook. The euro briefly extended its losses against the dollar after S&P cut its outlook on the bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to negative, reflecting a similar move on two euro-area nations that act as guarantors to the facility. The EFSF lost its top credit rating in January after earlier downgrades to France and Austria. The euro remained lower even after Germany’s lower house of parliament approved a second Greek bailout package worth 130 billion euros ($174 billion). German Chancellor Angela Merkel and euro-area leaders now shift their focus on whether to bolster the region’s bailout firewall as they prepare for a summit meeting in Brussels on March 1-2.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair corrected, receded on a floor of a figure.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair corrected, receded on a floor of a figure.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, lowered below Y81.00.
Release of the final state CPI data from Germany will see the flash HICP data for February today, although scheduled data releases in Europe start at 0710GMT with German GfK consumer confidence data. EMU data at 1000GMT includes the economic sentiment survey and business climate indicator for February. At 1730GMT there is a speech by SNB vice president Thomas Jordan at the Neue Zuercher Zeitung panel discussion, in Zurich. US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall data, while at 1330GMT, durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.0% in January, after rising 3.0% in December. The weekly Johnson Redbook Chain Store Sales data is then due, at 1355GMT, just ahead of the 1400GMT release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. At 1500GMT, consumer confidence is forecast to rise to a reading of 63.0 in February after dipping to 61.1 in January.
Asian stocks fell, with a regional benchmark retreating after a record 10-week advance, as oil near a nine-month high and continued concern that Greece will not be able to avoid a default spurred investors to lock in gains. Japanese exporters rose as the yen’s decline boosted their earnings outlook.
Nikkei 225 9,633.93 -13.45 -0.14%
Hang Seng 21,214.03 -192.83 -0.90%
S&P/ASX 200 4,267.37 -39.41 -0.92%
Shanghai Composite 2,447.06 +7.43 +0.30%
Korean Air Lines Co., the nation’s biggest carrier by market value, sank 5.3 percent in Seoul.
Newcrest Mining Ltd. dropped 3 percent in Sydney after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its rating on Australia’s largest gold producer.
Sony Corp., Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, gained 1.2 percent in Tokyo as the yen fell to a nine-month low against the dollar.
European stocks declined, extending last week’s retreat, as the Group of 20 nations rejected calls from the euro area to increase the International Monetary Fund’s lending resources.
G-20 officials told the euro area’s political leaders to provide more financial firepower before they consider lending their support, putting the onus on Germany, already the biggest national contributor to the bailouts.
Germany went to the Mexico meetings of finance ministers and central bankers urging G-20 nations to find further money that the IMF could channel to the euro area.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who attended the talks, said she wants to increase the fund’s lending capacity by $500 billion so that it can fend off “further shocks” to the global economy.
National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 17 western- European markets that were open today. France’s CAC 40 Index fell 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slid 0.3 percent.
HSBC fell 3.7 percent to 553.5 pence, the biggest contribution to the Stoxx 600 (SXXP)’s retreat, after reporting a 15 percent increase in pretax profit to $21.9 billion last year. That missed the $22.3 billion median analyst estimate.
Maersk slid 3.7 percent to 43,840 kroner after the shipping company posted a 43 percent drop in 2011 profit to 15.2 billion kroner ($2.7 billion). That compared with the average analyst estimate of 14.8 billion kroner. Falling freight rates pushed its container line to a loss in 2011. The company said that the division will also lose money in 2012.
Porsche SE rallied 3.1 percent to 50.07 euros after people familiar with the matter said Volkswagen AG (VOW), Europe’s largest carmaker, is close to a deal to purchase the 50.1 percent stake in Porsche’s automotive business that it doesn’t already own. The company may announce a plan within the next two weeks, said the people who declined to be identified.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to an almost four-year high, rebounding from earlier losses, on better-than-estimated housing data as financial shares rallied.
Stocks rose today as more Americans than forecast signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in January, indicating the industry that sparked the last recession is improving. Benchmark gauges rebounded from earlier losses, which were triggered by concern about Europe’s debt crisis after the Group of 20 nations rebuffed euro area call for help.
Dow 12,981.51 -1.44 -0.01%, Nasdaq 2,966.16 +2.41 +0.08%, S&P 500 1,367.59 +1.85 +0.14%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) jumped 2 percent, the most in the Dow, to $39.06. Its parts are worth one-third more than its market value, according to CLSA’s Mayo.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) climbed 2 percent to $8.04. The lender and a group of investors that reached an $8.5 billion mortgage-bond settlement with the bank won their bid to remove the case from a federal judge and return it to state court.
Lowe’s Cos. rose 0.7 percent to $27.34. The second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer reported fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after warmer weather encouraged outdoor projects.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) added 0.8 percent to $41.64. The largest U.S. entertainment company by market value was raised to “conviction buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which expects accelerating ad growth at ESPN.
Dendreon Corp. tumbled 21 percent, the most since Nov. 3, to $11.81. The maker of the prostate-cancer drug Provenge reported earnings that missed analyst estimates.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9140/50 (area of Feb 21-22 highs)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (high of the American session on Feb 23)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9010 (Feb 27 high)
The current price: Chf0.8973
Support 1: Chf0.8930 (Feb 24 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8835 (low of the American session on Nov 4)
Support 3: Chf0.8760 (Nov 3 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3615 (Dec 2 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3550 (Dec 5 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3485 (Feb 24 high)
The current price: $1.3430
Support 1 : $1.3365 (Feb 27 low)
Support 2 : $1.3270 (low of the American session on Feb 23)
Support 3 : $1.3230 (Feb 23 low)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3397 -0,50%
GBP/USD $1,5821 -0,48%
USD/CHF Chf0,8992 +0,50%
USD/JPY Y80,61 -0,47%
EUR/JPY Y107,98 -1,00%
GBP/JPY Y127,52 -0,96%
AUD/USD $1,0756 +0,60%
NZD/USD $0,8405 +0,59%
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey March 5.9 6.1
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator January 0.92
08:15 Switzerland Employment Level IV quarter 4.05 4.03
09:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Jordan Speak
10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator February -0.21 -0.15
10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index February 93.4 94.0
11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance February -22 -15
13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) February -0.4% +0.5%
13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) February +2.1% +2.1%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders January +3.0% -0.6%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation January +2.1% 0.0%
13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense January +3.5% -1.0%
14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y December -3.7% -3.6%
15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence February 61.1 63.2
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Elizabeth Duke Speaks
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m January +2.1% +3.4%
23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI February 50.7
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) January +3.8% +1.6%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) January -4.3% -1.6%
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