Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-02-2018.

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) January 6.7%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) January 4.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January 1.4% 0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January -1.5% 1.5%

13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases December 19.56

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) December 3.4% -0.1%

13:30 U.S. Building Permits January 1.300 1.3

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts January 1.192 1.215

13:30 U.S. Import Price Index January 0.1% 0.5%

15:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) February 95.7 95.5

18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count February 791

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January following four consecutive monthly increases. Manufacturing production was unchanged in January. Mining output fell 1.0 percent, with all of its major component industries recording declines, while the index for utilities moved up 0.6 percent. At 107.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.7 percent higher in January than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.2 percentage point in January to 77.5 percent, a rate that is 2.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.

Employment in Canada increased by 10,700 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP Canada National Employment Report.

"Hiring in Canada is off to a good start for 2018," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Although we saw losses in education and finance, there were strong gains in construction and leisure and hospitality. Construction job growth is likely driven by the record number of housing units currently under construction. The leisure and hospitality industry is growing to meet the needs of consumers and international tourists."

In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 221,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,500, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 224,500 to 225,000.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in December and moved up 0.4 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
In January, the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services and a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand goods.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in January, the largest advance since increasing 0.5 percent in April 2017. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.5 percent, the largest rise since 12-month percent change data were available in August 2014.

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in December 2017 was €180.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% compared with December 2016 (€179.0 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €155.3 bn, a rise of 2.5% compared with December 2016 (€151.4 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €25.4 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in December 2017, compared with +€27.6 bn in December 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €142.4 bn in December 2017, up by 2.8% compared with December 2016.

In December 2017 seasonally-adjusted data, compared to the previous month, increased both for outgoing flows (+0.6%) and for incoming flows (+3.3%). Exports increased for EU countries (+2.5%) and fell for non EU countries (-1.8%). Imports rose both for EU countries (+4.5%) and non EU countries (+1.6%). Over the last three months, seasonally-adjusted data, compared to the three months earlier, showed an increase for exports (+3.4%) and for imports (+3.3%).

In December 2017, compared with the same month of the previous year, both exports and imports increased (+2.0% and +3.7% respectively). Outgoing flows increased by 2.1% for EU countries and by 1.8% for non EU countries. The growth in purchases is due to the increase for EU area (7.4%) while non EU area decreased by 1.7%. The trade balance in December amounted to +5,253 million Euros (+6,228 million Euros for non EU countries and -974 million Euros for EU countries).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2573 (3749)

$1.2551 (3611)

$1.2518 (4460)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2487

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2403 (483)

$1.2365 (1059)

$1.2340 (2413)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 126553 contracts (according to data from February, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2300 (5716);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4197 (2809)

$1.4142 (1934)

$1.4098 (3706)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4049

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3952 (897)

$1.3906 (1552)

$1.3861 (1802)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 46621 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3706);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 44142 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2228);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Japan's industrial production grew more than initially estimated in December, latest figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Thursday, cited by rttnews.

Industrial production advanced a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent month-over-month in December, faster than the 2.7 percent rise reported earlier.

In November, production had grown at a stable rate of 0.5 percent.

Shipments also increased 2.9 percent over the month, revised up from a 2.7 percent gain estimated initially.

At the same time, inventories dropped 0.3 percent, just below the 0.4 percent fall seen in the flash data.

On a yearly basis, industrial production growth eased to 2.1 percent in December from 3.0 percent in November.

• New Zealand's high external debt burden and elevated household debt levels are the key weaknesses for the credit profile

• New Zealand's real gdp growth is likely to remain solid over the next two years

• Accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will bolster growth, which fitch forecasts at 2.8% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019

• Does not expect government-initiated review of RBNZ act to materially alter rbnz policy or policymaking credibility​

Australia's female labour force participation rate reached an historic high of 60.5 per cent in January 2018, while the overall participation rate of 65.6 per cent in January was the highest since February 2011, according to latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

Program Manager for the ABS Labour and Income Branch Bjorn Jarvis said the trend unemployment rate for January remained steady at 5.5 per cent, where it has hovered for the past seven months.

"Australia's labour force participation rate continues to strengthen, reaching a new high for females in January and a seven-year high overall," Mr Jarvis said.