Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 17-01-2018.

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation January 3.7%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed December 61.6 9

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate December 5.4% 5.4%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) November 5.9% 3.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) November 0.5% 0.6%

07:00 China NBS Press Conference

07:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December 7.2% 7.1%

07:00 China Retail Sales y/y December 10.2% 10.1%

07:00 China Industrial Production y/y December 6.1% 6%

07:00 China GDP y/y Quarter IV 6.8% 6.7%

08:00 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims January 1867 1900

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts December 1.297 1.275

13:30 U.S. Building Permits December 1.298 1.29

13:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January 26.2 25.0

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 261 250

14:30 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January -4.948 -3.588

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 57.7

• Consumption, residential investment have been stronger than anticipated; expected to contribute less to growth going forward

• Benefits of higher commodity prices being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world, canadian oil prices

• Core inflation measures have edged up, consistent with diminishing slack in economy

• Labor market slack being absorbed more quickly than anticipated; wages still rising by less than typical

• Raises 2018 average annual inflation forecast to 2.0 pct from 1.7 pct, holds 2019 at 2.1 pct

• Holds q4 growth forecast at 2.5 pct, sees q1 growth 2.5 pct; raises 2018 to 2.2 pct from 2.1 pct, 2019 to 1.6 pct from 1.5 pct

• Uncertainty about future of NAFTA "weighing increasingly" on the outlook; trade-policy uncertainty to reduce level of business investment by 2 pct by end-2019

• BoC sees small benefit to Canada from stronger U.S. demand due to recent tax changes

"The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent. Recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity. However, uncertainty surrounding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is clouding the economic outlook.

The global economy continues to strengthen, with growth expected to average 3 1/2 per cent over the projection horizon. Growth in advanced economies is projected to be stronger than in the Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In particular, there are signs of increasing momentum in the US economy, which will be boosted further by recent tax changes. Global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to Canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and Canadian oil prices.

In Canada, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017. Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon."

Revisions to mining and utilities altered the pattern of growth for October and November, but the level of the overall index in November was little changed. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production jumped 8.2 percent at an annual rate after being held down in the third quarter by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. At 107.5 percent of its 2012 average, the index has increased 3.6 percent since December 2016 for its largest calendar-year gain since 2010.

The gain in manufacturing output in December was its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The output of utilities advanced 5.6 percent for the month, while the index for mining moved up 1.6 percent. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was 77.9 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average.

AUD/JPY on daily time frame chart we can see that the price has broken a downside trend line and a resistance level which the price has already shown some difficulty in breakthrough that zone.

After the breakout of the trend line and the resistance level the price starts a new bullish movement.

Therefore, our bias on this pair remains - long

• Some lenders' boards do not receive enough information to judge consumer lending quality is worsening

• Says will consider following up adequacy of lenders' credit risk monitoring in late 2018

• UK motor finance lenders have adopted a "reasonably prudent" approach to future value of 2nd-hand cars

Euro area annual inflation was 1.4% in December 2017, down from 1.5% in November. In December 2016, the rate was 1.1%. European Union annual inflation was 1.7% in December 2017, down from 1.8% in November. A year earlier the rate was 1.2%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (-0.4%), Ireland and Finland (both 0.5%) and Denmark (0.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania and Estonia (both 3.8%) and the United Kingdom (3.0%). Compared with November 2017, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in four and rose in one.

The largest upward impacts to the euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.11 percentage points), tobacco (+0.06 pp) and milk, cheese & eggs (+0.05 pp), while telecommunication (-0.10 pp), garments and vegetables (-0.05 pp each) had the biggest downward impacts.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2362 (4074)

$1.2338 (5553)

$1.2320 (3098)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2231

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2154 (1392)

$1.2118 (1752)

$1.2078 (2052)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 102999 contracts (according to data from January, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (5553);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3893 (3003)

$1.3863 (2366)

$1.3844 (2053)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3773

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3677 (494)

$1.3644 (208)

$1.3608 (700)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 31794 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3488);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 27202 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3040);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.88 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• There are no differences between U.S. and South Korea over how to deal with North Korea

• Would keep ESM as it is, no reasons to modify institutional situation and create a new entity, reducing role of commission

• Not heard convincing arguments in favour of transforming ESM into so-called european monetary fund