Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 21-03-2017.

01:40 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January -0.3% 0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln January 47

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m January 0.4% 0.4%

14:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales February 5.69 5.57

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories March -0.237

19:45 Canada BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

• Sees Angra III plant ready by 2022, 2023

• Ovt has decided to retake cemig power dams whose contracts expired, re-auction them off

• Rules out deal with CEMIG over renewal

• Fate of Angra III nuclear plant to be decided in April

EURUSD: 1.0600-10 (EUR 1.4bln) 1.0650 (325m) 1.0680 (185m) 1.0700 (495m) 1.0720-25 (735m) 1.0750-60 (444m) 1.825 (483m)

USDJPY: 112.00 (USD 205m) 112.25 (460m) 113.00 (445m) 113.50 (625m) 113.60 (865m) 113.80 (282m) 114.00 (334m)

GBPUSD 1.2200 (GBP 230m) 1.2350 (320m) 1.2427 (400m)

AUDUSD: 0.7600 (AUD 275m)

USDCAD 1.3200 (USD 200m) 1.3225 (220m) 1.3365 (185m)

NZDUSD 0.6925 (NZD 459m) 0.7125 (227m)

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0800-05 1.0830 1.0850 1.0880 1.0900

Bids: 1.0780 1.0750 1.0730 1.0700 1.0680 1.0650

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2400 1.2420 1.2435 1.2445-50 1.2480 1.2500 1.2520 1.2550-55

Bids: 1.2360 1.2335-40 1.2320 1.2300 1.2285 1 .2250 1.2200

EUR/JPY

Offers: 121.85 122.00 122.30 122.50 122.65 122.85 123.00

Bids: 121.30 121.00 120.75 120.50 120.30 120.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8725-30 0.8750 0.8780-85 0.8800 0.8820 0.8850

Bids: 0.8700 0.8680-85 0.8665 0.8650 0.8630 0.8600 0.8580-85 0.8550

USD/JPY

Offers: 113.00 113.25-30 113.50 113.80 114.00 114.50

Bids: 112.45-50 112.25 112.00 111.85 111.65 111.50 111.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7735 0.7750 0.7780 0.7800 0.7830 0.7850

Bids: 0.7700 0.7685 0.7665 0.7650 0.7600

Retail sales rose 2.2% to $46.0 billion in January, led by four subsectors that rebounded from lower sales in December. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales advanced 1.7%.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms increased 1.3%.

Sales were up in 10 of 11 subsectors in January, respresenting 98% of retail trade.

The largest increase in dollar terms was a 3.8% advance at motor vehicle and parts dealers, the fourth gain in five months. The increase in this subsector was mainly attributable to new car dealers (+4.2%). Gains were also reported at used car dealers (+4.3%) and other motor vehicle dealers (+4.2%).

The U.S current-account deficit decreased to $112.4 billion (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2016 from $116.0 billion (revised) in the third quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.5 percent in the third quarter.

The $3.6 billion decrease in the current-account deficit mostly reflected a $19.9 billion increase in the surplus on primary income that was largely offset by a $17.5 billion increase in the deficit on goods. The changes in the surplus on services and the deficit on secondary income were relatively small.

• Impact of economic blockade on Hryvnia will be limited

• Revises 2017 gdp growth forecast to 1.9 pct from 2.8 pct

• 2017 inflation forecast unchanged at 9.1 pct

• Revises end-2017 foreign exchange reserve forecast to $20.8 billion from $21.3 billion

• Revises 2017 current account deficit forecast to $4.3 billion from $3.5 billion

The UK's manufacturers report that export order books have risen to the highest level in over three years, while expectations for growth are at a more than two-decade high, according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey.

The survey of 423 firms found that export order books were the highest since December 2013, driven by a broad-based strengthening of which half was accounted for by the pharmaceutical and mechanical engineering sectors. Total order books remained firm in March, after strengthening to a two-year high in February.

• For those who question whether we "get it" on accountability, we do

• BoE will learn lessons from "unfortunate events" around Hogg resignation to reinforce what is best in banking and BoE

• Fully respect judgment of treasury committee on Hogg and her decision to resign

• We know Hogg's honest mistake was a serious one

Housing market indicators for January suggested moderate demand which continues to outmatch supply. UK House prices grew by 6.2% in the year to January 2017, 0.5 percentage points higher than December 2016. However this still remains below the average annual house price growth seen in 2016 which was 7.4%.

Both the annual and monthly rate of producer price inflation increased in February 2017.

Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.7% on the year to February 2017, which is the eighth consecutive period of annual price increases and the highest they have been since December 2011.

Prices for materials and fuels paid by UK manufacturers for processing (input prices) rose 19.1% on the year, a slight decrease from the year to January 2017 but the second fastest rate of annual growth since September 2008.

Prices of imported materials and fuels increased 19.0% on the year, which is the first time the annual rate has been lower than the overall input PPI since December 2015.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.3% in February 2017, up from 1.9% in January.

The rate in February 2017 was the highest since September 2013, having steadily increased since late 2015.

Rising transport costs, particularly for fuel, were the main contributors to the increase in the rate.

Prices for food increased by 0.3% between February 2016 and February 2017, following 31 consecutive months of prices falling on the year.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was also 2.3% in February 2017, compared with 1.8% in January.

• BoJ can use rates on excess reserves and mkt operations to prevent inflation from getting out of control

• Undesirable to create economic bubbles

• Weak yen has some minus points, can't say it should weaken continuously

• Difficult to narrow output gap with weak yen

• BoJ not trying to reach 2 pct inflation target with weak yen

• Don't expect yen to continually weaken due to rate spreads

In the February 2017 year, 71,300 more migrants arrived in New Zealand than left, Stats NZ said today. This equalled the previous annual record set in January 2017. Migrant arrivals numbered 128,800 in the February 2017 year, a new annual record, while migrant departures were 57,500.

"About a third of all migrant arrivals for the year were people coming to New Zealand on work visas," population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan said. "Just over a quarter of all work-visa migrants were from the United Kingdom and France."

The next largest sources of migrants coming to New Zealand to work were from Germany, Australia, South Africa, and the United States.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0875 (989)

$1.0853 (117)

$1.0821 (47)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0784

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0716 (153)

$1.0687 (571)

$1.0648 (387)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 39569 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3964);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 43954 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (4009);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 20

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2611 (329)

$1.2515 (755)

$1.2420 (306)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2360

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2282 (230)

$1.2186 (348)

$1.2089 (641)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 14714 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1160);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 16862 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3147);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Swiss economic growth turned out disappointingly weak in the second half of 2016. However, the leading indicators are pointing to a clear upward trend in early 2017 and the global economy is sending out positive signals.

The Federal Government's Expert Group is therefore expecting growth in gross domestic product (GDP) to accelerate to +1.6% in 2017 (previously +1.8%) and to +1.9% in 2018 (unchanged), underpinned by domestic demand in particular. The Group also expects the job market to benefit from the economic recovery, anticipating, as before, that unemployment will drop to 3.2% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

In February 2017, foreign trade grew in both directions. Exports rose by 0.9% (real: - 2.5%) on working day terms. Thanks to three product groups, imports grew by + 5.4% (real: - 1.2%). The trade balance closed with a surplus of 3.3 billion francs.