Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 22-03-2017.

07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 10.0 10

09:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin

09:15 United Kingdom MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) February -0.3% 0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) February 1.5% 2.6%

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance March 9 5

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2030 2035

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 241 240

12:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

14:00 Belgium Business Climate March -1.1 -0.3

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales February 555 565

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) March -6.2 -5.7

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln February -285 160

23:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

• EU agrees with Britain's May in desire to have a bold and ambitious free trade agreement

• Calls for continued EU-British cooperation on security and defence, security cannot be bargaining chip in trade talks

• EU does not entertain scenario of no deal on future partnership with Britain after Brexit

• There can be no "a la carte" participation in single market for Britain

• Market access and trading will continue, will need to be based on a level playing field

• Particularly concerned to clear up uncertainties about Irish-British border, wants to support good-friday agreement in Ireland

After starting the year at the fastest pace in almost a decade, existing-home sales slid in February but remained above year ago levels both nationally and in all major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retreated 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in February from 5.69 million in January. Despite last month's decline, February's sales pace is still 5.4 percent above a year ago.

U.S. house prices remained flat in January according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The HPI has reflected positive monthly increases since early 2012, except for November 2013 and January 2017, when house prices were flat on a month-over-month basis. The previously reported 0.4 percent increase in December remains unrevised.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From January 2016 to January 2017, house prices were up 5.7 percent.

EURUSD: 1.0680 (EUR 850m) 1.0720-25 (380m) 1.0740-50 (735m) 1.0775 (386m)

USDJPY: 112.00 (USD 250m) 112.40 (260m) 112.75 (282m) 113.00 (613m) 113.50 (680m)

AUDUSD: 0.7480 (AUD 670m) 0.7500 (920m) 0.7550 (180m) 0.7685-90 (520m) 0.7750 (1.1bln)

USDCAD 1.3200 (USD 200m) 1.3275 (305m) 1.3325 (425m) 1.3350 (300m) 1.3380 (635m) 1.3400 (220m)

NZDUSD: 0.7000 (NZD 227m) 0.7100 (372m)

EURJPY: 122.50 (EUR 270m)

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0820 1.0830 1.0850 1.0880 1.0900

Bids: 1.0780 1.0750 1.0730 1.0700 1.0680 1.0650

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2500-05 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2580 1.2600

Bids: 1.2465 1.2450 1.2425-30 1.2400 1.2380 1.2360 1.2335-40 1.2320 1.2300

EUR/JPY

Offers: 120.25 120.50 12.85 121.00 121.50 121.85 122.00

Bids: 119.75-80 119.50 119.30 119.00 118.80 118.65 118.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8670 0.8685 0.8700 0.8725-30 0.8750 0.8780-85 0.8800

Bids: 0.8630-35 0.8600 0.8580-85 0.8550 0.8530 0.8500

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.25 112.50 112.80 113.00 113.25-30 113.50

Bids: 111.20-25 111.00 110.80 110.65 110.50 110.35 110.20 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7680-85 0.7700 0.7720 0.0.7735 0.7750

Bids: 0.7645-50 0.7625 0.7600 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7500

• The transitional period will cease as soon as we have approved or rejected the bank's model application

• Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem's comments on southern countries were "wrong"

• We are aware that it is a burden for UK banks to apply for a new licence in the EU

• With a view to internal models, we would aim to be accommodating regarding the timing

• Macron seen beating Le Pen in run-off vote by 62 pct

• Far-right's Le Pen to get 26 pct (-1) in 1st round of French election, Macron 24 pct (unchanged), Fillon 19 pct (+1)

Credit Agricole CIB Research expects the RBNZ to leave rates on hold this week arguing that it's unlikely for the central bank to move to an easing bias that could weigh on NZD.

CACIB outlines 5 reasons behind this view:

1- Governor Graeme Wheeler said two weeks ago said that "the risks around the OCR are equally weighted."

2- The RBNZ is likely to wait for an MPS and forecast review to do change its bias; this week is a simple OCR review.

3- The TWI has averaged below where the RBNZ had forecast for the quarter and has responded to weaker dairy prices.

4- Fonterra had kept its forecast pay out to dairy farmers for 2016/2017 constant for several months

5- Inflation expectations have jumped back up to 1.92% and close to the center of the RBNZ's inflation targeting band.

Source: Credit Agricole CIB Research, efxnews.

• moderate rates of uk economic activity growth had continued overall

• Retail sales expected to slow due to weaker sterling, exports had risen

• Growth in labour costs per employee had remained subdued, pay settlements around 2-2.5 pct

• Investment intentions had picked up, pointing to modest growth in spending in the year ahead

The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €24.1 billion in January 2017. This reflected surpluses for goods (€24.1 billion), primary income (€12.1 billion) and services (€3.5 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€15.5 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in January 2017 recorded a surplus of €357.9 billion (3.3% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €321.6 billion (3.1% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to January 2016. This was due to increases in the surpluses for goods (from €346.8 billion to €366.3 billion), primary income (from €42.5 billion to €59.3 billion) and services (from €58.6 billion to €68.5 billion). These were partly offset by an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €126.3 billion to €136.3 billion).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0947 (794)

$1.0923 (989)

$1.0878 (47)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0798

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0731 (663)

$1.0686 (388)

$1.0633 (608)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 41469 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3954)

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 44796 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (4047);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 21

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2713 (817)

$1.2617 (322)

$1.2522 (769)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2478

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2383 (540)

$1.2287 (245)

$1.2190 (428)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 14749 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1191);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 17052 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3088);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Japan had a merchandise trade surplus of 813.389 billion yen in February, the Ministry of Finance cited by rttnews.

That surpassed expectations for 807.2 billion yen following the downwardly revised 1,087.9 billion yen deficit (originally -1,086.9 billion yen) in January.

Exports jumped 11.3 percent on year, beating forecasts for 10.1 percent following the 1.3 percent gain in the previous month.

Imports added an annual 1.2 percent, missing expectations for 1.3 percent and down from 8.5 percent a month earlier.

"The Bank, in accordance with the short-term policy interest rate of minus 0.1 percent and the target level of the long-term interest rate, both decided at the previous meeting on December 19 and 20, 2016, had been providing funds through purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and other measures.6 In this situation, 10-year JGB yields had been at around 0 percent, and the shape of the JGB yield curve had been consistent with the guideline for market operations.

In the money market, interest rates on both overnight and term instruments had generally been in negative territory. The uncollateralized overnight call rate had been in the range of around minus 0.03 to minus 0.06 percent. As for interest rates on term instruments, yields on three-month treasury discount bills (T-Bills) had been at around minus 0.3 percent recently. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average had fallen somewhat since the start of the year, reflecting the yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar, but rebounded thereafter and had been more or less flat throughout the intermeeting period. In the foreign exchange market, the yen had been appreciating against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year, partly due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Meanwhile, the yen had been essentially flat against the euro".