Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 23-03-2017.

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 53.3 53.5

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Finally) January 104.8 105.5

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Finally) January 115.6

07:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter IV 1.0% 1.1%

07:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV 0.2% 0.4%

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) March 56.4 56.1

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 52.2 52.4

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) March 54.4 54.6

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 56.8 56.5

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 55.4 55.3

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) March 55.5 55.3

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals February 44.7 44.9

12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y February 1.7%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m February 0.9% 0.2%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y February 2.1% 2.1%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense February 1.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation February -0.2% 0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders February 1.8% 1.2%

13:05 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 54.2 54.8

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) March 53.8 54.2

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

In March 2017, the DG ECFIN flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased in both the euro area (by 1.2 points to -5.0) and the EU (by 1.0 point to -4.2), thereby broadly offsetting the decreases registered in February.

• Views shift in G20 communique language on trade as showing consensus to improve global trade architecture, not abandon it

• Trump administration's proposed budget cuts for multilateral institutions would not have a direct impact on IMF finances, income

Sales of new single-family houses in February 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.1 percent (±17.3 percent)* above the revised January rate of 558,000 and is 12.8 percent (±18.0 percent)* above the February 2016 estimate of 525,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2017 was $296,200. The average sales price was $390,400.

EURUSD: 1.0680-90 (EUR 365m) 1.0700 (895m) 1.0725-35 (695m) 1.0770 (735m) 1.0800 (455m) 1.0830 (400m) 1.0850 (755m) 1.0900 (675m)

USDJPY: 110.40-50 (USD 325m) 111.60-70 (460m) 112.50 (245m) 112.75 (1.3bln) 112.85 (395m) 113.00 (1.4bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2440-50 (GBP 215m) 1.2480-1.2500 (230m)

USDCHF 0.9900 (USD 180m)

AUDUSD: 0.7500 (AUD 1.4bln) 0.7525 (1.5bln) 0.7575 (205) 0.7640-50 (320m)

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0800 1.0820 1.0830 1.0850 1.0880 1.0900

Bids: 1.0765 1.0750 1.0730 1.0700 1.0680 1.0650

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2580 1.2600 1.2630 1.2650

Bids: 1.2465 1.2450 1.2425-30 1.2400 1.2380 1.2360 1.2335-40 1.2320 1.2300

EUR/JPY

Offers: 120.00 120.30 120.50 120.85 121.00 121.50

Bids: 119.50 119.30 119.00 118.80 118.65 118.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8655-60 0.8685 0.8700 0.8725-30 0.8750 0.8780-85 0.8800

Bids: 0.8625-30 0.8600 0.8580-85 0.8550 0.8530 0.8500

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.30 111.50 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.25 112.50112.80 113.00

Bids: 111.00 110.80 110.65110.50110.35110.20 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7665 0.7680-85 0.7700 0.7720 0.0.7735 0.7750

Bids: 0.7625 0.7600 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7500

In the week ending March 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 241,000 to 243,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 237,250 to 239,000.

The survey of 116 firms, consisting of 65 retailers, showed that growth in the volumes of sales was similar to that seen in February, but is set to accelerate in the year to April.

Sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly below seasonal norms. Orders placed on suppliers fell again over the year, but are set to rise somewhat next month.

The moderate increase in headline retail sales volumes was driven by the grocery and clothing sectors. Year-on-year growth in internet sales volumes picked up to broadly in line with the long-run average. Internet sales volumes are expected to grow at broadly similar pace in the year to April.

• French election candidates' policy plans carry mixed credit implications for rated sectors

• Prevailing macroeconomic conditions to continue to drive credit profiles of french banks and insurers

• While very unlikely, any significant increase in likelihood that France leaves EU would be "deeply credit negative for all rated sectors in France"

• "Impact of elections on France's structured finance market will likely be limited, in the absence of a victory for Marine Le Pen"

Estimates of the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 3.7% compared with February 2016 and increased by 1.4% compared with January 2017; this monthly growth is seen across all store types.

The underlying pattern as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement decreased by 1.4% for the second month in a row; the largest decrease since March 2010 and only the second fall since December 2013.

Average store prices (including fuel) increased by 2.8% on the year, the largest growth since March 2012; the largest contribution came from petrol stations, where year-on-year average prices rose by 18.7%.

Online sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased year-on-year by 20.7% and by 3.3% on the month, accounting for approximately 15.3% of all retail spending.

• U.S. policy uncertainty, Brexit, Chinese rebalancing keep outlook clouded

• Incoming data have increased confidence that the expansion will continue to firm

• The future contribution from energy prices to global inflation is expected to be very limited

• World trade expected to expand broadly in line with global activity despite U.S policy uncertainty

• Sees potential impact of Brexit upon Germany as muted in the short term, given the diversified structure of its exports

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0975 (2265)

$1.0920 (989)

$1.0874 (47)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0798

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0729 (678)

$1.0685 (400)

$1.0631 (598)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 41951 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3954);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 45018 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (3977);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2713 (826)

$1.2617 (324)

$1.2522 (734)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2494

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2384 (570)

$1.2287 (241)

$1.2190 (453)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15139 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1198);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 17226 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3088);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

While economic expectation and the propensity to buy picked up again after a decline in the previous month, income expectations fell slightly. Because propensity to save also rose again in March, the consumer climate prognosis in April is 9.8 points, and thus slightly lower than the 10.0 points in March.

A rise in inflation in Germany and the resultant intensified concerns over income buying power have obviously hindered full recovery of consumer sentiment in March this year. While economic expectations and the propensity to buy largely compensated for losses from the previous month of February, income expectations were down for the second time in a row. Since the propensity to save increased once again, consumer climate declined overall in March.

Statement by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler:

"Macroeconomic indicators in advanced economies have been positive over the past two months. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity in the global economy and extensive geo-political uncertainty.

Global headline inflation has increased, partly due to a rise in commodity prices, although oil prices have fallen more recently. Core inflation has been low and stable. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory, but less so going forward, particularly in the US.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen 4 percent since February, partly in response to weaker dairy prices and reduced interest rate differentials. This is an encouraging move, but further depreciation is needed to achieve more balanced growth.

Quarterly GDP was weaker than expected in the December quarter, but some of this is considered to be due to temporary factors. The growth outlook remains positive, supported by on-going accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high levels of household spending and construction activity. Dairy prices have been volatile in recent auctions and uncertainty remains around future outcomes.

House price inflation has moderated, and in part reflects loan-to-value ratio restrictions and tighter lending conditions. It is uncertain whether this moderation will be sustained given the continued imbalance between supply and demand".