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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 22-06-2012.
The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar after European Central Bank lowered margin requirements for banks. At the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the direct funding of banks violate the terms of the contract for the region.
Also on the depreciation of the euro affected the business climate index data in Germany. As it became known that the business sentiment in Germany decreased for the second consecutive month. In June the figure had fallen to its lowest level over the past two years, due to the fact that Europe's largest economy is experiencing the consequences of the debt crisis of the euro zone.
The data of this indicator was added the fear that the German economy is losing stamina and, perhaps, will reduce the level of GDP in the second quarter. Other data also point to a recession. Industrial activity is on the low level for the past three years.
The yen fell as the Japanese Lower House lawmakers prepared to vote for a bill that increases the sales tax by half.
The Canadian dollar rose after official data showed that the rate of inflation in Canada in May showed the slowest pace since June 2010, which was caused by the reduction of energy consumption and maintenance of the central bank of low-level production and rising prices.
agrees with 1% GDP stimulus measures for Europe;
EMU needs a stronger political union.
agrees with 1% GDP stimulus measures for Europe;
- EMU needs a stronger political union.
EUR/USD $1.2490, $1.2500, $1.2600
USD/JPY Y80.25, Y79.50
EUR/GBP stg0.8160
AUD/USD $0.9950
Data:
07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter III
07:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin Quarter II
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 106.9 106.2 105.3
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 113.3 112.0 113.9
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 100.9 99.8 97.3
The dollar rode as equities fell and a report today showed German business confidence dropped to the lowest in more than two years, boosting demand for safer assets.
The business climate index for Germany, based on the Ifo institute’s survey of 7,000 executives, slid to 105.3 from 106.9 in May. Economists predicted a decline to 105.6, according to the median estimate in a survey.
Data yesterday showed euro-area manufacturing shrank at the fastest pace in three years, and a gauge of Chinese industrial output indicated contraction. More Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank and sales of existing homes fell, reports The yen weakened as Japanese lawmakers in the lower house prepared to vote on a bill to double sales tax.
EUR/USD: during the European session the pair was limited $1.2520 - $1.2565.
GBP/USD: during the European session the pair was limited $1.5580 - $1.5630.
USD/JPY: the pair showed high at Y80.55, then receded.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/700, $1.2650, $1.2600/10, $1.2570/80
Bids $1.2520/00, $1.2480, $1.2450
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0200, $1.0150, $1.0125/30, $1.0100
Bids $1.0000, $0.9970/65, $0.9950, $0.9900
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5695/700, $1.5640/60
Bids $1.5580, $1.5560/50, $1.5525/20, $1.5500, $1.5480/70
USD/JPY
Offers Y81.50, Y81.00, Y80.80
Bids Y80.10, Y79.70
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.35/40
Bids Y100.50, Y100.40, Y100.10, Y100.00
Resistance 3: Y81.70/80 (Apr 20 high, 61,8%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)
Resistance 2: Y81.00 (50.0%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)
Resistance 1: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, high of May)
Current price: Y80.26
Support 1: Y80.00 (session low)
Support 2: Y79.40/30 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1)
Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (Jun 12 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9569
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (MA (200) for H1)
Support 2: Chf0.9510 (MA (100) for H1)
Support 3: Chf0.9420/10 (Jun 18 low, 50,0% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (Jun 21 high, 50.0% FIBO $ 1,6290 - $ 1,5260)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5680 (MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5630 (session high)
Current Price: $ 1.5603
Support 1: $ 1.5570 (Jun 21 low)
Support 2: $ 1.5470 (Jun 14-15 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2740/50 (Jun 18 and 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2630 (MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2600 (MA (200) for H1)
Current price: $ 1.2557
Support 1: $ 1.2520 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.2440 (Jun 12 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (Jun 5 low)
EUR/USD $1.2490, $1.2500, $1.2600
USD/JPY Y80.25, Y79.50
EUR/GBP stg0.8160
AUD/USD $0.9950
00:00 China Bank holiday
The dollar headed for a weekly gain against most of its major peers as shares fell before data today forecast to show German business confidence declined this month, boosting demand for safer assets. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, will drop to 105.6 from 106.9 in May, according to the median economist estimate compiled by Bloomberg News. That would be the lowest reading since March 2010. Ifo releases the report at 10 a.m. in Munich today. Data yesterday showed euro-area manufacturing shrank at the fastest pace in three years, and a Chinese output gauge indicated contraction. More Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank and sales of existing homes fell, separate reports indicated.
The greenback maintained its biggest advance in six months versus the euro as Asian stocks extended a worldwide slump following reports that signaled Europe’s debt crisis is weighing on economic growth.
Demand for the 17-nation euro was limited after Moody’s Investors Service lowered credit ratings on 15 global banks. Among bank downgrades by Moody’s yesterday, Credit Suisse Group AG’s credit rating was reduced by three levels and Morgan Stanley’s by two steps. The rating changes reflect the lenders’ “significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital-markets activities,” Moody’s Global Banking Managing Director Greg Bauer said in a statement.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy are set to gather in Rome today. The meeting is to help prepare for a June 28-29 European Union summit in Brussels at which leaders will discuss the path to further financial integration, including proposals for closer banking cooperation.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in range $1.2540-$1.2565
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair restored after yesterday's fall.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair continued yesterday's gain.
The Ecofin meeting takes place in Luxembourg today and the main European data release will be the 0800GMT release of the German IFO business survey where the main index is expected to decline to a reading of 105.5 from 106.9 last month. Later on, at 1710GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian PM Mario Monti, French President Francois Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy give a joint press conference after their meeting, in Rome. US data comes later in the session with the 1900GMT release of Treasury Allotments By Class data and the 2015GMT release of C&I Loans
data.
Yesterday the euro fell against the dollar after it was reported that Moody's may downgrade ratings of the largest banks in the world, including the British establishment. Most likely, the announcement will be made after the close of Wall Street. This course will be placed in a large scale to reduce the credit ratings of the leading institutions in the world. The agency has done so for some banks in European countries, including Spain and Italy. All this may increase the cost of debt capital and forcing banks to increase the amount of collateral for loans.
The pressure on the euro also had a weak data on indices of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, which was below forecasts.
The yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly a month. The pressure on the Japanese currency had reports of increasing pressure lawmakers in the ruling party in Japan at the Bank of Japan to take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
Contribute to the strengthening of the dollar results of the meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market, which were announced last night. Recall that the results of the two day meeting of the Fed rate on funds not changed. At the same time has increased the volume of the program Operational Twist on the $ 267 billion to $ 667 billion at the same time duration of the program extended to the end of 2012. It was also noted that if necessary, additional measures are taken. Since it was not reported anything new about the next round of quantitative easing, to which many had hoped, the demand for the dollar rose.
Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.85 (Apr 24 low)
Resistance 1: Y80.55 (May 16 high)
Current price: Y80.42
Support 1: Y80.00 (session low)
Support 2: Y79.70 (Jun 20 high)
Support 3: Y79.40 (Jun 21 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9650/55 (area of Jun 8-12 highs)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9600 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9580 (Jun 21 high)
Current price: Chf0.9566
Support 1: Chf0.9555 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9500 (Jun 20 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9420/25 (area of the Jun 18-21 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5655 (Jun 20 low)
Current Price: $ 1.5615
Support 1: $ 1.5575 (Jun 21 low)
Support 2: $ 1.5510 (low of the U.S. session on Jun 15)
Support 3: $ 1.5470/75 (area of Jun 14-15 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2745/50 (area of Jun 18-20 highs)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2635 (Jun 20 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2565 (session high)
Current Price: $ 1.2555
Support 1: $ 1.2530 (Jun 21 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2500 (psychological level)
Support 3: $ 1.2435/45 (area Jun 8-12 lows)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2547 -1,20%
GBP/USD $1,5595 -0,72%
USD/CHF Chf0,9570 +1,19%
USD/JPY Y80,21 +2,17%
EUR/JPY Y100,65 -0,25%
GBP/JPY Y125,09 +0,22%
AUD/USD $1,0052 -1,31%
NZD/USD $0,7875 -1,04%
USD/CAD C$1,0282 +0,92
00:00 China Bank holiday -
02:00 China Leading Index May 0.8%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter III
07:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin Quarter II
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 106.9 106.2
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 113.3 112.0
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 100.9 99.8
08:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m May +0.4% +0.3%
12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y May +2.0% +1.5%
12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m May +0.4% +0.3%
12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y May +2.1% +1.9%
13:00 Belgium Business Climate June -11.2 -11.8
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