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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 20-06-2012.
FOMC is ready for further action if necessary
In general, FOMC revised growth forecasts downward
The Fed expects the U.S. GDP growth over the longer term will be from 2.3% to 2.5%
The Fed expects the unemployment rate will be 8.0% -8.2% in 2012, 7.5% -8.0% in 2013, 7.0% -7.7% in 2014
The Fed expects that in the longer term, unemployment will be 5.2% -6.0%
The Fed expects that inflation will be 1.2% -1.7% in 2012, 1.5% -2.0% in 2013, 1.6% -2.0% in 2014
16 out of 19 members of the Operations Committee on the open market expects rates to be lower amount, or 0.25% to end 2012
16 out of 19 members of the committee expects that the long-term target interest rate will be 4.0% or higher
13 of 19 committee members expect the Fed rates will not rise until 2014 or 2015
11 of 19 committee members expect the rate will be lower, or 0.75% before the end of 2014
13 of 19 committee members expect the rate will be lower, or 0.25% to end 2013
Euro fluctuates against the dollar after the announcement of the results of a two-day meeting of the Committee to work on the open market, the U.S. Federal Reserve. Today the Fed decided to keep rates within the range of 0-0.25%, but the operation was extended twist - an operation aimed at lowering long-term interest rates by selling short-term bonds. Launched in September 2011, Operation Twist was to end in late June, but the FOMC today announced its extension until the end of the year (or approximately $ 267 billion). Many experts expect more such solutions, rather than introducing QE3. The Fed reiterated that it "is ready to take further action if it is necessary to continue to support the growth of the economy and the labor market in the context of price stability."
After the initial growth of the dollar again came under downward pressure against the backdrop of recovery of stock markets. Currency also declined against its major competitors. Volatility also contributed to the strengthening of the statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the question of bond purchases Stabilization Fund may be discussed. These words helped the euro to update daily lows against the dollar.
The yen resumed its decline against the euro and the dollar after a brief recovery at the Fed decision. The yen fell sharply on Wednesday on reports that Japanese lawmakers are close to reaching an agreement on tax measures aimed at lowering the national currency.
Expects growth to remain moderate, to pick up gradually
Inflation has declined, longer-term expectations stable
Housing sector remains depressed
Household spending rising at slower pace
Business investment continues to advance
Employment growth slowed in recent months, remains elevated
Economy expanding moderately this year
Voted 11-1 for Fed funds rate action
FOMC: Fed extends Operation Twist through 2012
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2685, $1.2730, $1.2740, $1.2750, $1.2775, $1.2810
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.20, Y79.80
GBP/USD $1.5600
EUR/GBP stg0.8140
Data:
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) May +0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) May +2.4% +2.2% +2.1%
06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count May -13.7 -3.1 +8.1
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate May 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate April 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y April +0.6% +0.8% +1.4%
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) June -4.0 -43.4
The dollar fell on prospects the Federal Reserve will announce further stimulus when it concludes its two-day meeting today.
The pound weakened after minutes of the Bank of England’s June meeting showed Governor Mervyn King and three other policy makers were overruled in a push to expand the bank’s bond- purchase program. Later the pound restored.
A seperate report showed U.K. jobless-benefit claims unexpectedly rose in May. Jobless-benefit claims climbed 8,100 from April while the median forecast of economists was for a drop of 3,100.
EUR/USD: the pair rose above $1.2700.
GBP/USD: the pair updated yesterday's high, reaching $1.5770 area.
USD/JPY: during the European session, the pair retreated from session lows in Y79.00 area.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2750, $1.2730, $1.2710
Bids $1.2650, $1.2630/25, $1.2550/40
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5900/10, $1.5850, $1.5820/25, $1.5760
Bids $1.5640, $1.5610/00, $1.5580, $1.5560/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0300, $1.0275/80, $1.0250, $1.0215/20
Bids $1.0170/65, $1.0150, $1.0110/00, $1.0080
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.25/30
Bids Y78.65/60, Y78.50, Y78.20
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.10/20, Y101.00, Y100.50
Bids Y99.85/80, Y99.55/50, Y99.40, Y99.00
Resistance 3: Y79.80 (May 25, Jun 7-11 highs)
Resistance 2: Y79.25/30 (MA (200) for H1, Jun 18 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.00 (MA (100) for H1)
Current price: Y78.97
Support 1: Y78.80 (session low)
Support 2: Y78.60/50 (Jun 15 low, 61,8% FIBO Y77 ,60-Y79, 80)
Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9560 (Jun 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9545 (MA (200) for H1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9500 (MA (100) for H1)
Current price: Chf0.9459
Support 1: Chf0.9420/10 (Jun 18 low, 50,0% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)
Support 2: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9325 (61.8% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5840 (MA (100) for D1, May 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5780 (50.0% FIBO $ 1,6290 - $ 1,5260)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5750/60 (session high, MA (200) for D1)
Current price: $ 1.5728
Support 1: $ 1.5650 (session low, MA (100) for H1)
Support 2: $ 1.5610 (Jun 19 low)
Support 3: $ 1.5580 (MA (200) for H1)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $ 1,3280 - $ 1,2290)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2750 (Jun 18 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2710 (session high, resistance line from Jul 18)
Current price: $ 1.2690
Support 1: $ 1.2660 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.2630 (MA (100) for H1)
Support 3: $ 1.2580 (MA (200) for H1)
00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index April +0.2% -1.4%
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m April -0.3% +0.2% +0.1%
The euro fell against the yen, halting yesterday’s gain, before Spain sells bonds tomorrow with European leaders struggling to contain the region’s debt crisis. Spanish 10-year yields on June 18 touched 7.29 percent, the highest since euro was introduced in 1999. While yields eased yesterday, they remained above the 7 percent level that pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek rescue packages. The nation is scheduled to sell debt tomorrow maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2017.
Demand for the dollar was limited amid speculation the Federal Reserve will decide on further stimulus when it concludes a two-day meeting today. Twelve of 21 primary dealers who trade with the Fed expect some form of monetary easing. The central bank will review new forecasts as it contends with continuing financial stress in Europe and a U.S. unemployment rate that has stayed above 8 percent for 40 consecutive months. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Jefferies Group Inc. predict policy makers will extend the Fed’s so-called Operation Twist. The $400 billion program, announced in September, involves selling short-maturity debt and buying longer-term bonds. The Fed instituted the program following two rounds of quantitative easing, or QE, in which it bought $2.3 trillion of debt to hold down borrowing costs.
New Zealand’s dollar declined after a government report today showed the country’s current-account deficit in the three months through March widened to 4.8 percent of gross domestic product, up from a revised 4.2 percent in the previous quarter.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell slightly.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in range $1.5705-$1.5730.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to yesterday's lows.
The UK calendar is busy this morning, starting at 0825GMT with a speech at the GAIM conference in Monaco by the Bank of England's Bob Jenkins. This is shortly followed by the minutes of the latest Bank of England MPC meeting and also labour market data, both at 0830GMT. Back in the UK, the Bank of England gives the results of the first ECTR auction.
- Voted 5-4 at Jun meeting for unchanged QE
- King, Miles, Posen voted for stg50bn extra QE in Jun
- Fisher voted for stg25bn extra QE in Jun
- Lookd at merits of cutting Bank Rate
- Judged bank rate cut had no advantages over more QE
Yesterday the euro strengthened against the dollar after a European Union official said a politically acceptable path will be sought for renegotiating Greece’s bailout conditions. Once a Greek government is formed, representatives of the so-called troika of the EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank will travel to Athens and evaluate any requests for adaptations in the aid program, the official told reporters on condition of anonymity in Brussels today.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its major counterparts as the Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting where 12 primary dealers expect some form of added stimulus from the central bank, while nine expect no action. Fed policy makers gather amid speculation they will consider further stimulus measures to sustain U.S. growth. The Fed will review new forecasts at its two-day meeting as it contends with continuing financial stress in Europe and a U.S. unemployment rate that has remained above 8 percent for 40 consecutive months.
The pound weakened versus the euro after U.K. inflation slowed in May to the least in 2 1/2 years. U.K. consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in May from a year earlier, compared with a 3 percent increase in April, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That’s the weakest since November 2009.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a one-month high, as Spain’s borrowing costs climbed to a euro-area record and optimism faded that Greece’s election result will calm the debt crisis.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece should not be given more leeway to comply with austerity measures needed to secure international aid after pro-bailout parties won enough seats to form a majority in parliament.
Nikkei 225 8,655.87 -65.15 -0.75%
Hang Seng 19,416.67 -11.14 -0.06%
S&P/ASX 200 4,123.33 -13.57 -0.33%
Shanghai Composite 2,300.8 -15.26 -0.66%
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that counts Europe as its largest market, declined 2 percent in Hong Kong.
Fairfax Media Ltd. sank 8.5 percent in Sydney amid reports Gina Rinehart, Asia’s richest woman, is seeking three seats on the publisher’s board and power to fire editors.
Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, dropped 1.2 percent to 3,200 yen in Tokyo.
European stocks gained for a third day as Greece moved closer to forming a government and a Spanish debt sale met targets, outweighing a bigger-than-forecast decline in German investor confidence.
FTSE 100 5,590.55 +99.46 +1.81%, CAC 40 3,113.26 +47.07 +1.54%, DAX 6,359.23 +111.03 +1.78%.
Home Retail Group Plc surged 23 percent as sales at the Argos chain beat estimates.
Whitbread Plc jumped 6.3 percent as first-quarter revenue increased.
SAP AG rose 2 percent after U.S. peer Oracle Corp. reported fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates.
Danone tumbled 6.1 percent after the world’s biggest yogurt maker cut its profitability forecast.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level in more than a month, as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will announce more measures to stimulate the world’s largest economy.
Signs of slowing growth amid Europe’s turmoil could mean the Fed, which began a two-day meeting today, could extend its so-called Operation Twist, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Jefferies & Co. The program involves selling short-term debt and buying longer-term bonds. A more aggressive response could be warranted if the Fed see high costs in a slowdown of growth.
The S&P 500 rose 1 percent to 1,357.98 at 4 p.m. New York time, gaining for a fourth day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 95.51 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,837.33.
Bank of America Corp. climbed 4.5 percent as the Federal Housing Finance Agency said it plans to help banks avoid being forced to buy back mortgages amid concern lenders are tightening standards even for the most creditworthy buyers.
FedEx Corp., operator of the largest cargo airline, jumped 2.8 percent after pledging “significant cost reductions.”
Microsoft Corp. increased 2.9 percent after unveiling a tablet computer.
Resistance 3: Y79.75 (area of 8-13 Jun high)
Resistance 2: Y79.50 (area of 14 and 15 Jun high)
Resistance 1: Y79.30 (Jun 18 high)
Current price: Y78.88
Support 1: Y78.60 (area of 6 and 15 Jun low)
Support 2: Y78.00/10 (area of June 4-5 low)
Support 3: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9555/65 (area of Jun 18-19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9515 (high of the Asian session on Jun 19)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9485 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9474
Support 1: Chf0.9420/30 (area of Jun 18-19 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9365/75 (area of May 21-22 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9330 (low of Jun 15)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5885 (May 16 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5850 (May 23 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5755 (Jun 19 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5724
Support 1: $ 1.5695 (high of the Asian session on Jun 19)
Support 2: $ 1.5610/35 (area of Jun 18-19 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5565 (high of Jun 14-15)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2870 (Jun 15 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2810/25 (area of Jun 21-22 highs)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2730/50 (area of Jun 18-19 highs)
Current Price: $ 1.2673
Support 1: $ 1.2660 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.2555/65 (area of Jun 18-19 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2515 (low of U.S. session on Jun 13)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2688 +0,89%
GBP/USD $1,5726 +0,40%
USD/CHF Chf0,9463 -0,90%
USD/JPY Y78,98 +0,01%
EUR/JPY Y100,22 +0,75%
GBP/JPY Y124,17 +0,23%
AUD/USD $1,0193 +0,73%
NZD/USD $0,7981 +0,78%
USD/CAD C$1,0177 -0,56%
00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index April +0.2%
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m April -0.3% +0.2%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) May +0.2% -0.1%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) May +2.4% +2.2%
06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count May -13.7 -3.1
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate May 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate April 8.2% 8.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y April +0.6% +0.8%
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) June -4.0
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -0.2
16:30 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%
16:30 U.S. FOMC Statement -
18:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections -
18:15 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference -
22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) May -2.0%
22:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Productб q/q Quarter I +0.3% +0.4%
22:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product, y/y Quarter I +1.8% +1.3%
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