Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-06-2012.

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15.06.2012

18:03

American focus: euro strengthened against the dollar

The euro strengthened against the dollar for a second week as investors reduced record bets against the currency before Greece’s June 17 election, and amid speculation central banks may provide aid to financial markets.

The 17-nation currency pared earlier losses against the dollar on concern its decline since April has been overdone. Central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity, if needed, after a general election in Greece in two days, Reuters reported. The dollar headed for weekly declines versus major peers as weaker U.S. growth added to the case for further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The yen strengthened the most in two weeks against the dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus that debases the currency. The central bank kept its asset-purchase fund at 40 trillion yen ($510 billion) today, matching the forecasts of economists.

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, slipped for a fourth day, falling as much as 0.5 percent to 81.615, the least since May 23. It was down 1 percent for the week.

13:49

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2560, $1.2600, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.30

EUR/GBP stg0.8025

AUD/USD $1.0000, $0.9900

13:47

GBP/USD rose above key resistance $1,5600. Currently the pair is in $1,5620 area. Above growth is possible to $1,5660.

13:15

U.S.: Capacity Utilization, May 79.0% (forecast 79.2%)

13:15

U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), May -0.1% (forecast +0.1%)

13:12

Treasury flows by currency show

China +$1.5bn

Japan -$10.2bn

Brazil +$8.6bn

OPEC -$4.9bn

UK +$32.3bn

13:02

U.S.: Total Net TIC Flows, April -20.5

13:01

U.S.: Net Long-term TIC Flows , April 25.6 (forecast 45.3)

12:57

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index fell fifteen points In June, but remained positive at 2.3.

The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8.

Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0.

Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek.

Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last months levels, suggesting that optimism was waning somewhat, with the future general business conditions index falling to 23.1, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans: 43 percent said that they expected to

increase capital spending over the next six to twelve months, while just 16 percent planned reductions.

12:33

U.S.: NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index , June 2.29 (forecast 14.1)

12:33

Canada: Manufacturing Shipments (MoM), April -0.8% (forecast +2.2%)

12:26

European session: Sterling dropped against all of its 16 major peers

Data:

06:50 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods April -8.6 -8.5 -10.1

09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. April 4.3 4.2 6.2

Sterling dropped against all of its 16 major peers after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King presented joint steps with the Treasury to increase the flow of credit to U.K. banks and said the case for more stimulus is “growing.” Two-year note yields approached a record low and implied yields on interest- rate futures slid as investors added to bets for lower borrowing costs.

The yen strengthened at least 0.3 percent against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus that debases the currency.

The dollar was set for weekly declines versus most major peers before U.S. data that may show production slowed and consumer confidence fell, adding to the case for further easing by the Federal Reserve. The central banks of the world’s biggest economies are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity if needed after a general election in Greece this weekend widely seen as a referendum on keeping the nation in the euro, Reuters reported earlier.

EUR/USD: the pair traded in a range $1.2610-$1.2645.
GBP/USD: the pair in the beginning trading session fell, however restored later.
USD/JPY: in current of the European session the pair continued falling.

US data starts at 1230GMT when the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to a reading of 13.5 in June after see-sawing sharply in the previous two months. At 1315GMT, industrial production is expected to hold steady in May after the April rebound. At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to fall to a reading of 77.8 in early-June after rising in each of the last nine months.

11:55

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2740/50, $1.2690/710, $1.2670/80, $1.2650

Bids $1.2550/40, $1.2525/20, $1.2480-70, $1.2445/40

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5601, $1.5570, $1.5540, $1.5650, $1.5515/20
Bids $1.5475/70, $1.5455/50, $1.5435/30, $1.5405/395, $1.5350

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.20, Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.80, Y79.40/50
Bids Y78.80/70, Y78.50, Y78.10/00

EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.10/20, Y101.00, Y100.75/80, Y100.35/50
Bids Y99.20/00, Y98.75/70, Y98.50, Y98.25/20, Y98.00

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8220/25, stg0.8200, stg0.8135/40
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8085/80, stg0.8050/40, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8015/00, stg0.7950

11:39

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.50 (session high, Jun 14 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.10 (area of Jun 8-14 low)

The current price: Y78.85

Support 1: Y78.75 (50,0% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.50 (61.8% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)

11:10

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9650 (area of Jun 6-12 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9570/80 (Jun 14 high, МА (100) for Н1, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9520 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9507

Support 1: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9410 (50,0% FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Support 3: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)

10:43

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.5660 (38,2% FIBO $1.6300-$1.5260)

Resistance 2 : $1.5600 (area of Jun 7-13 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5565 (Jun 14 high)

The current price: $1.5542

Support 1 : $1.5480/70 (Jun 14 low, МА (200) for Н1, support line from Jun 12)

Support 2 : $1.5450 (Jun 12 low)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

10:31

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.2820 (May 21 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280)

Resistance 1 : $1.2670 (38,2% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280, Jun 11 high)

The current price: $1.2630

Support 1 : $1.2610 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2590 (resistance line from May 21)

Support 3 : $1.2540 (May 14 low)

10:05

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2560, $1.2600, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.30

EUR/GBP stg0.8025

AUD/USD $1.0000, $0.9900

09:00

Eurozone: Employment Change, Quarter I -0.2% (forecast -0.2%)

09:00

Eurozone: Trade Balance s.a., April 6.2 (forecast 4.2)

08:51

Asian session: The yen strengthened against all of its 16 major counterparts

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

The yen strengthened against all of its 16 major counterparts after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus that debases the currency. The BOJ kept its asset-purchase fund at 40 trillion yen ($506 billion) today, matching the forecasts of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The central bank unexpectedly increased the fund on Feb. 14 and introduced a 1 percent inflation goal. That triggered a 1.1 percent drop in the yen that day against the dollar, then the most since Oct. 31 when Japan intervened in to stem a gain in its currency.
The dollar was set for weekly declines versus most major peers before U.S. data that may show production slowed and consumer confidence fell, adding to the case for further easing by the Federal Reserve. U.S. data due today are projected to show the recovery in the world’s largest economy is losing momentum. Growth in industrial production probably slowed to 0.1 percent last month from 1.1 percent in April, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
A gauge of manufacturing in the New York region fell to 13 in June from 17.1 in May, a separate survey showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment declined to 77.5 this month from 79.3 in May, the highest since October 2007, economists forecast.The central banks of major economies are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity if needed after the general election in Greece this weekend, Reuters reported earlier.
Demand for the euro was damped after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded five Dutch banking groups. In a statement dated today, the rating company cited risks to the economic outlook and “fragile” investor confidence in Europe.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair updated a week’s high.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y79.00.

Also at 0900GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to deliver a speech at a business conference, in Berlin, while at 0930GMT,
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is also due to deliver a speech. UK data at 0830GMT includes Trade data as well as Construction Output. US data starts at 1230GMT when the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to a reading of 13.5 in June after see-sawing sharply in the previous two months. At 1315GMT, industrial production is expected to hold steady in May after the April rebound. At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to fall to a reading of 77.8 in early-June after rising in each of the last nine months.

08:30

United Kingdom: Trade in goods , April -10.1 (forecast -8.5)

08:10

Forex: Thursday’s review

Yesterday the dollar fell for a second day against the yen after reports signaled a slowing U.S. economy, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to take more steps to bolster growth.

The U.S. currency declined versus 15 of its 16 major peers after initial jobless claims rose last week and inflation declined in May. The consumer price index fell 0.3 percent, more than forecast and the biggest drop since December 2008, after no change the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9 from a revised 380,000 the prior week that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

The euro rose versus the dollar on bets its 5 percent decline since April was overdone even as Spanish bond yields rose to a record after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating. The euro fell earlier against the yen after Italy’s costs of borrowing for three years climbed to the highest since December at an auction. Investors were also waiting for an election in Greece this weekend that may indicate whether the nation will remain in the euro bloc.

Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating three steps to Baa3, one level above junk, citing its increased debt burden and weakening economy. The Spanish 10-year yield climbed as much as 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, to a euro-era record 6.998 percent.

New Zealand’s dollar rallied against all 16 major counterparts after the central bank gave no immediate sign it would cut interest rates when it kept its benchmark at a record low.

The kiwi approached a one-month high after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said the current exchange rate is more comfortable than March and signaled he expects to hold the 2.5 percent official cash rate till mid-2013.

07:46

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa:

WORSE EUROPEAN CRISIS TO HAVE BIG EFFECT WORLD
MUST KEEP JAPAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABLE
EUROPEAN DEBT REMAIN BIGGEST RISK TO WATCH
CEN BANKS KEEPING IN CLOSE TOUCH ON EUROPE
Central banks watching European debt crisis
CENTRAL BANKS WATCHING EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS

06:01

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.80 (May 25, Jun 7-11 highs)

Resistance 2: Y79.50 (session high, Jun 14 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.10 (earlier support, area of Jun 8, 12 and 14 lows)

Current price: Y78.83

Support 1: Y78.75 (50,0 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.50 (61.8 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)