Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-06-2012.

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13.06.2012
18:03
American focus: euro strengthened for a second day against the dollar

 

The euro strengthened for a second day against the dollar as speculation increased Greece may seek to modify its austerity program following the June 17 election in a bid to remain in the monetary bloc.

Greek politician Alexis Tsipras said he expects the European Union will do all it can to keep the nation in the euro even if he wins elections and carries out his promise to repeal the austerity measures.

The shared currency has fallen 5 percent against the dollar since April as crisis concern increased after Greece’s inconclusive May 6 election. The euro traded as high as $1.3487 this year, in February.

European leaders may consider relaxing Greece’s austerity program after election, the Financial Times edition reported without citing anyone.

Italy sold 6.5 billion euros of 364-day bills at an average yield of 3.972 percent, compared with 2.34 percent at an auction on May 11. Germany sold 10-year bonds and index-linked debt maturing in 2018.

The dollar fell versus a majority of its most-traded peers as U.S. retail sales fell in May for a second month, a sign the world’s largest economy is cooling.

The dollar erased its gain versus the yen after the U.S. Commerce Department reported a 0.2 percent decrease in retail sales in May, following a similar decline in April that was previously reported as a gain.

14:30
U.S.: EIA Crude Oil Stocks change , -0.2
14:00
U.S.: Business inventories , April +0.4% (forecast +0.4%)
13:48
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

 

EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2440-45, $1.2450-55, $1.2465, $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2570

 

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.55

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5685

EUR/GBP stg0.8030, stg0.8050

AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9870, $0.9950, $1.0025

 

12:31
U.S.: Retail sales excluding auto, May -0.4% (forecast +0.1%)
12:30
U.S.: Retail sales, May -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, May +2.7% (forecast +2.7%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI, y/y, May +0.7% (forecast +1.3%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, May +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI, m/m, May -1.0% (forecast -0.6%)
12:22
European session: the euro rose

 

Data:

05:30 France CPI, m/m May +0.1% +0.2% -0.1%

05:30 France CPI, y/y May +2.1% +2.0% +2.3%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) May +0.1% -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y May +2.2% +1.9% +2.2%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m May -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y May -2.3% -2.0% -2.3%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April -0.3% -0.9% -0.8%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April -2.2% -2.7% -2.3%


The euro rose  against the dollar as business media reported that European leaders may consider relaxing Greece’s austerity program after the June 17 election.

The common currency also rose versus the yen. A new Greek government, independent of the electoral outcome, will seek amendments to the terms of the bailout, the newspaper reported, without citing anyone.

Italy sold 6.5 billion euros of 364-day bills at an average yield of 3.972%, compared with 2.34% at an auction on May 11.


EUR/USD: the pair rose in $1,2540 area.


GBP/USD: the pair showed high in $1,5600 area then receded.


USD/JPY: during European session the pair was limited Y79.50-Y79,75.


US data starts at 1100GMT with the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, which are followed at 1230GMT by retail sales and the PPI data. At 1400GMT, the value of US business inventories is expected to rise 0.3% in April. Wholesale inventories were already reported up 0.6%, while factory inventories were flat in the month. The EIA weekly crude oil data then follows at 1430GMT.

11:55
Orders

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/710, $1.2670/80, $1.2620, $1.2600, $1.2580/85, $1.2550/60
Bids $1.2445/40, $1.2425/20

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5650, $1.5615/25, $1.5600
Bids $1.5515/00, $1.5405/395

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0080/85, $1.0050, $1.0030, $1.0020, $1.0000
Bids $0.9940/35, $0.9930, $0.9900, $0.9880/75, $0.9850, $0.9800

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.20/10,  Y80.00, Y79.80
Bids Y79.40/35, Y79.20, Y79.10/00, Y78.85/80

EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.10/20, Y101.00, Y100.75/80, Y100.45/50, Y100.30/35, Y100.00
Bids Y99.45/40, Y99.05/00, Y98.75/70, Y98.50, Y98.25/20, Y98.00

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8220/25, stg0.8200, stg0.8135/40, stg0.8110/20, stg0.8095/100, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8015/00, stg0.7965, stg0.7950

11:23
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 3 and 16 highs)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25, Jun 7-11 highs)

Current price: Y79.63

Support 1: Y79.50 (МА (100) for Н1, session low)

Support 2: Y79.10/00 (Jun 8 and 12 low, МА (200) for Н1), 38,2 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.75 (50,0 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)


 

11:11
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665/75 (area of Jun 5, 8 and 12 highs)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9630 (session high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9583
Support 1: Chf0.9570 (session high)
Support 2: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9410 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)


 

10:48
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.5720 (area of May 24, 28-29 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)
Resistance 1 : $1.5600 (area of session high and Jun 7 and 11 highs)
Current price: $1.5566
Support 1 : $1.5515 (МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.5455 (Jun 12 low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)


 

10:37
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.2785 (50,0 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280, Jun 11 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.2610 (resistance line from May 21)
Current price: $1.2541
Support 1 : $1.2470 (МА (200) for Н1, session low)
Support 2 : $1.2430 (Jun 8 and 12 lows)
Support 3 : $1.2400 (Jun 5 low)


 

09:25
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2440-45, $1.2450-55, $1.2465, $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2570

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.55

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5685

EUR/GBP stg0.8030, stg0.8050

AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9870, $0.9950, $1.0025

 

09:06
Italy sold E6.5bln 12-month BOT, averge yield 3.972% (2.34%), cover 1.73 (1.79)
09:01
Eurozone: Industrial Production (YoY), April -2.3% (forecast -2.7%)
09:00
Eurozone: Industrial production, (MoM), April -0.8% (forecast -0.9%)
08:03
Asian session: The dollar strengthened against the majority of its 16 peers

 

 

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June 95.3 95.6

 

 

The euro snapped an advance from yesterday before auctions of Italian government debt this week and data today forecast to show Europe’s industrial production dropped the most in seven months. Italy is scheduled to sell 6.5 billion euros ($8.1 billion) of 364-day bills today and offer debt maturing in 2015, 2019 and 2020 tomorrow. The yield on the nation’s benchmark 10-year government bond rose to as high as 6.3 percent yesterday, a level unseen since Jan. 25. The European Union’s statistics office will probably say industrial production in the euro area fell 1.2 percent month- on-month in April, the most since September, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The 17-nation currency maintained a two-day slide versus the U.K. pound before Greece holds general elections on June 17 amid concern Europe’s fiscal crisis is spreading.

The dollar strengthened against the majority of its 16 peers after Spain’s borrowing costs jumped to a 15-year high and Fitch Ratings predicted Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will miss budget-deficit targets, boosting demand for safer assets. Spain’s 10-year yield climbed for a third day to touch 6.83 percent, the highest since 1997, after the nation on June 9 became the fourth euro state to ask for an international bailout, following Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

 

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair has receded from a yesterday's high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, receded from a yesterday's high.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in range Y79.50-Y79.65.


This morning sees final HICP data for May for many of the European states, including France at 0530GMT and Germany at 0600GMT. EMU data includes industrial output data at 0900GMT. At 1545GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will hold a speech in honor of Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti at ESMT Responsible Leadership Award ceremony, in Berlin. US data starts at 1100GMT with the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, which are followed at 1230GMT by retail sales and the PPI data. At 1400GMT, the value of US business inventories is expected to rise 0.3% in April. Wholesale inventories were already reported up 0.6%, while factory inventories were flat in the month. The EIA weekly crude oil data then follows at 1430GMT.

 

07:38
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (Jun 7 high)

The current price: Y79.63

Support 1: Y79.10 (Jun 8 low)

Support 2: Y78.60 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3: Y78.00/10 (area of Jun 4-5 lows)


07:18
Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, y/y, May -2.3% (forecast -2.0%)
07:18
Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, m/m, May -0.2% (forecast 0.0%)
07:00
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9770 (Jun 1 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9645/55 (area of Jun 6-12 high)

The current price: Chf0.9612

Support 1: Chf0.9585 (Jun 12 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9555 (low of the American session on Jun 11)

Support 3: Chf0.9510 (Jun 7 low)


06:26
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.5715/25 (area of May 24-29 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.5645 (May 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5590/00 (area of Jun 7-12 high)

The current price: $1.5551

Support 1 : $1.5510 (low of the American session on Jun 12)

Support 2 : $1.5450 (Jun 12 low)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)


06:01
Germany: CPI, y/y , May +2.2% (forecast +1.9%)
06:00
Germany: CPI, m/m, May -0.2% (forecast -0.2%)
05:40
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.2625 (Jun 7 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2565 (high of the American session on Jun 11)

Resistance 1 : $1.2530 (Jun 12 high)

The current price: $1.2491

Support 1 : $1.2435/45 (area of Jun 6-12 low)

Support 2 : $1.2405 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3 : $1.2365 (May 30 low)


05:30
France: CPI, y/y, May +2.3% (forecast +2.0%)
05:30
France: CPI, m/m, May -0.1% (forecast +0.2%)
05:20
Currencies. Daily history for Jun 12'2012:

 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2504 +0,30%

GBP/USD $1,5567 +0,62%

USD/CHF Chf0,9603 -0,30%

USD/JPY Y79,56 +0,21%

EUR/JPY Y99,49 +0,54%

GBP/JPY Y123,85 +0,85%

AUD/USD $0,9952 +0,97%

NZD/USD $0,7767 +1,15%

USD/CAD C$1,0261 -0,57%

05:07
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jun 13'2012:

 

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June 95.3

05:30 France CPI, m/m May +0.1% +0.2%

05:30 France CPI, y/y May +2.1% +2.0%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) May +0.1% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y May +2.2% +1.9%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m May -0.1% 0.0%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y May -2.3% -2.0%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April -0.3% -0.9%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April -2.2% -2.7%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales May +0.1% -0.1%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto May +0.1% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m May -0.2% -0.6%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y May +1.9% +1.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m May +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y May +2.7% +2.7%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories April +0.3% +0.4%

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - -0.1

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement -

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference -

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m May -0.1%

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y May 0.0%

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