Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 14-06-2012.

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14.06.2012
18:04
American focus: euro rose

 

The dollar fell for a second day against the yen after reports signaled a slowing U.S. economy, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to take more steps to bolster growth.

The U.S. currency declined versus 15 of its 16 major peers after initial jobless claims rose last week and inflation declined in May. The consumer price index fell 0.3 percent, more than forecast and the biggest drop since December 2008, after no change the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9 from a revised 380,000 the prior week that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

The euro rose versus the dollar on bets its 5 percent decline since April was overdone even as Spanish bond yields rose to a record after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating. The euro fell earlier against the yen after Italy’s costs of borrowing for three years climbed to the highest since December at an auction. Investors were also waiting for an election in Greece this weekend that may indicate whether the nation will remain in the euro bloc.

Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating three steps to Baa3, one level above junk, citing its increased debt burden and weakening economy. The Spanish 10-year yield climbed as much as 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, to a euro-era record 6.998 percent.

New Zealand’s dollar rallied against all 16 major counterparts after the central bank gave no immediate sign it would cut interest rates when it kept its benchmark at a record low.

The kiwi approached a one-month high after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said the current exchange rate is more comfortable than March and signaled he expects to hold the 2.5 percent official cash rate till mid-2013.

14:39
BOC: “Calls for Europe centralized bank restructuring”

 


  • Basic European solution: rebuild single fin market

  • Spillover effects to Canada/globe could be substantial

  • Europe contagion risks increasing

 

13:50
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2570, $1.2600, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y79.90

EUR/JPY Y100.30

GBP/USD $1.5580

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8020

AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9900, $0.9800

 

12:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index , April +0.2% (forecast +0.5%)
12:31
U.S.: Current cccount, bln, Quarter I -137.3 (forecast -132)
12:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, May +2.3% (forecast +2.2%)
12:30
U.S.: CPI, Y/Y, May +1.7% (forecast +1.9%)
12:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, m/m, May +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)
12:30
U.S.: CPI, m/m , May -0.3% (forecast -0.2%)
12:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, 386 (forecast 378)
12:23
European session: The dollar slid against most of its 16 major counterparts

 

Data:

07:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

07:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment -

07:30 Switzerland SNB Press Conference -

08:00 Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report 2012

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report June

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI May +0.5% -0.2% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) May +2.4% +2.6% +2.4%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y May +1.6% +1.6% +1.6%

The dollar slid against most of its 16 major counterparts before U.S. data that economists said will show consumer prices fell, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to take more steps to bolster the economy. The U.S. consumer-price index probably fell 0.2 percent in May from a month earlier, the biggest drop since December 2008, the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The Labor Department will release the figures today.

The euro’s advance against the U.S. currency was tempered after Moody’s Investors Service yesterday lowered the credit ratings of Spain and Cyprus, and before Greek elections on June 17. Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating three steps to Baa3, one level above junk, citing the nation’s increased debt burden, weakening economy and limited access to capital markets. The ratings firm also lowered Cyprus’s bond rating to Ba3 from Ba1, attributing the downgrade to the material increase in the likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro area, and the resulting increase in the probable amount of support that the government may have to extend to Cypriot banks.

New Zealand’s dollar strengthened against all of its major peers after that nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged.

 

EUR/USD: the pair traded in a range $1.2540-$1.2585.

GBP/USD: the pair in the beginning trading session fell, however was restored later.

USD/JPY: in current of the European session the pair decreased.

12:13
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2690/710, $1.2670/80, $1.2615/20

Bids $1.2525/20, $1.2482-72, $1.2445/40


GBP/USD

Offers $1.5650,$1.5615/25, $1.5600

Bids $1.5473, $1.5455/50, $1.5435/30, $1.5405/395, $1.5350


USD/JPY

Offers Y80.10,  Y80.00

Bids Y79.20, Y79.10/00, Y78.85/80


EUR/JPY

Offers Y101.50, Y101.10/20, Y101.00, Y100.75/80, Y100.45/50, Y100.30/35

Bids Y99.05/00, Y98.75/70, Y98.50, Y98.25/20


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8220/25, stg0.8200, stg0.8135/40, stg0.8120

Bids stg0.8050/40, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8015/00, stg0.7950

11:48
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

The current price: Y79.31

Support 1: Y79.10/00 (Jun 8 and 12 low, МА (200) for Н1), 38,2 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.75 (50,0% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.50 (61.8% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)


 

11:23
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9770/80 (highs of 2011-2012)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9650/55 (area of Jun 6-12 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9585 (Jun 12 low)

The current price: Chf0.9567

Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Jun 13 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9410 (50,0% FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)


 

11:07
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.5660 (38,2% FIBO $1.6300-$1.5260)

Resistance 2 : $1.5600 (area of Jun 7-13 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5530 (session high)

The current price: $1.5493

Support 1 : $1.5470 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5450 (Jun 12 low)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)


 

10:49
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280)

Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (38,2% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280, Jun 11 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2610 (Jun 13 high)

The current price: $1.2585

Support 1 : $1.2530 (Jun 13 high)

Support 2 : $1.2500 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.2435/45 (area of Jun 6-12 low)


 

09:50
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2570, $1.2600, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y79.90

EUR/JPY Y100.30

GBP/USD $1.5580

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8020

AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9900, $0.9800

 

09:02
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, May +2.4% (forecast +2.6%)
09:02
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, May -0.1% (forecast -0.2%)
09:01
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, May +1.6% (forecast +1.6%)
08:42
SNB: Ready to take further measures at any time

 

  • Expect global economy to recover only slowly
  • Expect significant swiss economy slowdown in 2012
  • Risks for Swiss economy exceptionally high
07:22
Germany Merkel: "Euro debt crisis in focus at G20 Summit"
07:22
Germany Merkel: "Euro debt crisis in focus at G20 Summit"
07:21
Asian session:

Data:

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation June +3.1% +2.3%

01:10 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Bollard Speaks -

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) April +1.3% +0.2% -0.2%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) April +14.2% +13.4% +12.9%


The dollar was under pressure before U.S. data that may show consumer prices fell, rekindling expectations the Federal Reserve will take more steps to bolster the economic recovery.

The euro was traded in area jof yesterdays high amid speculation traders are paring their bearish bets on the European currency before Greek elections on June 17.

New Zealand’s dollar strengthened against all of its major peers after the central bank left interest rates unchanged.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5% today.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair was limited $1,2550-$ 1,2590.


GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was limited $1,5500-$ 1,5530, then decreased in area $1,5480.


USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair was limited Y79.30-Y79.50.



The Swiss National Bank announces it's monetary policy decision at 0730GMT while the central bank also publishes it's Financial Stability Report for 2012 at 0800GMT. There are expectations of higher growth rate forecasts form the SNB.

Also at 0800GMT, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin.

Today Germany's Bundestag is to vote on the 2012 supplementary budget bill, while Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is likely to speak around 0830GMT. EMU data sees final HICP for May and also Q1 labour costs data at 0900GMT.

06:00
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25, June 7-11 highs)

Resistance 1: Y79.50 (session high, MA(100) for H1)

Current price: Y79.42

Support 1: Y79.10/00 (Jun 8 and 12 lows, МА (200) for Н1), 38,2 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.75 (50,0 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.50 (61.8 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)


 

05:27
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665/75 (area of Jun 5, 8 and 12 highs)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9544
Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Jun 13 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9410 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)


 

04:52
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.5720 (area of May 24, 28-29 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)
Resistance 1 : $1.5600 (area of Jun 7, 11 and 13 highs)
Current price: $1.5526
Support 1 : $1.5500 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5460/50 (Jun 12 low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)


 

04:49
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.2785 (50,0 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280, Jun 11 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2610 (resistance line from May 21, Jun 13 high)
Current price: $1.2585
Support 1 : $1.2530 (МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.2500 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.2440 (Jun 8 and 12 lows)


 

04:32
Japan: Industrial Production (MoM) , April -0.2% (forecast +0.2%)
04:11
Forex: Daily history for Jun 13'2012:

 

EUR/USD $1,2565 +0,49%

GBP/USD $1,5511 -0,36%
USD/CHF Chf0,9566 -0,39%
USD/JPY Y79,42 -0,18%
EUR/JPY Y99,81 +0,32%
GBP/JPY Y123,22 -0,51%
AUD/USD $0,9945 -0,07%
NZD/USD $0,7760 -0,09%
USD/CAD C$1,0292 +0,30%

 

04:01
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jun 14'2012:
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation June +3.1% +2.3%
01:10 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Bollard Speaks -
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) April +1.3% +0.2% -0.2%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) April +14.2% +13.4% +12.9%
07:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment -
07:30 Switzerland SNB Press Conference -
08:00 Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report 2012
08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report June
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI May +0.5% -0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) May +2.4% +2.6%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y May +1.6% +1.6%
09:00 OPEC OPEC Meetings June
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index April +0.3% +0.5%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 377 378
12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m May 0.0% -0.2%
12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y May +2.3% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m May +0.2% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y May +2.3% +2.2%
12:30 U.S. Current cccount, bln Quarter I -124 -132
13:30 Eurozone EU President Jean-Claude Juncker Speaks -
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada publishes financial system review -
18:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI May 48.0

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