Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 27-03-2012.

• • Sees no sign of shift in UK inflation dynamics

• 
  

  • Should growth slow down more than is expected, more policy accommodation could be advisable

  • Even if growth is better than expected, he wants to keep policy accommodative and only wants to remove accom if a clear dual mandate is achievable

  • 2.5% real growth is only enough for a modest dip in unemployment

  • Oil, budget deficit, unemployment are risks remaining, but mkts are improving and downside risks are lessened

Resistance 3:1500 (psychological level)

Resistance 2:1440 (high of 2008)

Resistance 1:1420 (area of session high)

Current price: 1412,00

Support 1:1410 (earlier resistance, Mar 19 high)

Support 2:1397 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3:1393 (Mar 26 low)

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350. Exotic; $1.3425 KO

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9140

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0485

Data:

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92 0.87

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2 5.9

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance March -2 -2 0

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3470, $1.3450, $1.3415/25, $1.3400, $1.3385

Bids $1.3325/20, $1.3300/280, $1.3235/30

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0620/25, $1.0590/00

Bids $1.0510/00, $1.0485/80, $1.0430/25, $1.0410/00

Resistance 3: Y83.50 (Mar 22 high)

Resistance 2: Y83.20 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Y83.00 (Mar 23-26 highs, Mar 19 low)

Current price: Y82.95

Support 1: Y82.60 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.90 (Mar 13 and 23 lows)

Support 3: Y81.50 (Mar 9 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19 and 22 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Mar 23-26 highs)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (session high, Mar 23 low)

Current price: Chf0.9033

Support 1: Chf0.9010 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.8930 (low of February)

Support 3: Chf0.8830 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (highs of November)

Resistance 2 : $1.6090 (Nov 11-14 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990 (highs of February)

Current price: $1.5965

Support 1 : $1.5940 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5910 (area of Mar 19, 21 and 23 highs)

Support 3 : $1.5840 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.3550 (high of December)

Resistance 2 : $1.3490 (high of February)

Resistance 1 : $1.3390 (session high)  

Current price: $1.3360

Support 1 : $1.3320 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3280 (area of Mar 8, 21 and 23 highs)

Support 3 : $1.3190 (Mar 23 and 26 lows)

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350. Exotic; $1.3425 KO

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9140

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0485

Sold E1.0bln vs target E500mln to E1.0bln

Sold E505mn 2.35% 2019 BTPei;avg yield 3.06% (3.19%),cover 1.91(1.85)

Sold E495mln of 2.10% 2021 BTPei;avg yield 3.45%, cover 2.23

00:00 G7 G7 Meetings

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92 0.87

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2 5.9

The dollar traded 0.2 percent from its lowest this month against the euro amid speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain easy monetary policy to sustain growth in the world’s biggest economy. The greenback, which has weakened against 15 of 16 major peers this year, remained lower as comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday added to signs the central bank will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3. Bernanke is scheduled to give a lecture today at George Washington University. Yesterday in a speech in Arlington, Virginia, he said that “further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

Demand for the euro was supported amid prospects European finance ministers will agree to bolster the region’s debt-crisis firewall this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that her country may back plans for Europe’s temporary and permanent rescue funds to run in parallel. Finance ministers will meet in Copenhagen this week to discuss the prospect of combining the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and its permanent successor from July, the European Stability Mechanism.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3345-$1.3365.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.5955-$1.5970.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range Y82.80-Y83.05.

Core-European data all comes early on Tuesday, starting at 0600GMT with German import prices and followed at 0610GMT by German GfK

consumer confidence. At 1300GMT, German parliamentary groups are likely to discuss drafts of ESM and the fiscal compact bills once again, in Berlin. Tuesday is a marathon day for UK policy commentary. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will kick off at 1315GMT with a Treasury Select Committee hearing into his 2012/13 Budget. Back in the UK, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gives a testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee at 1430GMT. US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall Sales data. The weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales data us due at 1255GMT. This is followed at 1300GMT by the

Yesterday the dollar fell against its higher- yielding counterparts as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said accommodative monetary policy is still needed to reduce U.S. unemployment. The decline in U.S. unemployment may reflect “a reversal of the unusually large layoffs that occurred during late 2008 and over 2009,” Bernanke said in a speech in Arlington, Virginia. “To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

The euro strengthened against the U.S. currency as Germany said it may back plans to increase the debt-crisis rescue funds before the region’s finance ministers meet March 30. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany may back plans for the temporary and permanent euro-area rescue funds to run in parallel. Ministers are due to discuss plans to combine the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and its permanent successor from July, the European Stability Mechanism in Copenhagen this week.мEuropean sentiment was also buoyed after Munich-based Ifo institute’s German business climate index rose more than expected.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain, fixed above $1.3300.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair rose on a figure, fixed above $1.5900.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair restored after Friday falling.

Core-European data all comes early on Tuesday, starting at 0600GMT with German import prices and followed at 0610GMT by German GfK

consumer confidence. At 1300GMT, German parliamentary groups are likely to discuss drafts of ESM and the fiscal compact bills once again, in Berlin. Tuesday is a marathon day for UK policy commentary. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will kick off at 1315GMT with a Treasury Select Committee hearing into his 2012/13 Budget. Back in the UK, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gives a testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee at 1430GMT. US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall Sales data. The weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales data us due at 1255GMT. This is followed at 1300GMT by the

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Resistance 3: Y84.10/20 (area of Mar 15-21 highs)

Resistance 2: Y83.50 (Mar 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y83.05 (session high)

The current price: Y82.86

Support 1: Y82.60 (low of the American session on Mar 26)

Support 2: Y82.30 (Mar 22 low)

Support 3: Y81.95 (Mar 23 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19-22 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9135 (Mar 26 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9065 (Mar 23 low)

The current price: Chf0.9035

Support 1: Chf0.9020 (Mar 26 low)

Support 2: Chf0.8980 (138.2% FIBO Chf0.9335-Chf0.9075)

Support 3: Chf0.8930/35 (area of Feb 24-29 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6040 (138.2% FIBO $1.5600-$1.5922)

Resistance 1 : $1.5975/90 (area of Feb 29 high, Mar 1 high and Mar 26 high)

The current price: $1.5964

Support 1 : $1.5920 (Mar 21 high)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (Mar 16 high)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (high of Feb)

Resistance 2 : $1.3415 (high of the American session on Feb 27)

Resistance 1 : $1.3370 (Mar 26 high)

The current price: $1.3350

Support 1 : $1.3285/95 (area of Mar 21-26 highs)

Support 2 : $1.3240 (support line from Mar 22)

Support 3 : $1.3190 (Mar 26 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3356 +0,66%

GBP/USD $1,5969 +0,64%

USD/CHF Chf0,9027 -0,58%

USD/JPY Y82,87 +0,64%

EUR/JPY Y110,68 +1,28%

GBP/JPY Y132,31 +1,25%

AUD/USD $1,0540 +0,71%

NZD/USD $0,8233 +0,63%

USD/CAD C$0,9909 -0,69%

00:00 G7 G7 Meetings 0

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +0.9% +0.9%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance March -2 -2

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y January -4.0% -3.8%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence March 70.8 70.5

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak 0

16:35 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks 0

16:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0

17:20 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

19:45 U.S. FOMC Member Elizabeth Duke Speaks 0