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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 30-03-2012.
The euro rose versus the dollar, heading for its biggest quarterly gain in a year, after European finance ministers agreed to boost an anti-debt-crisis firewall, adding confidence the region’s financial problems are abating. European governments capped fresh rescue lending at 500 billion euros ($666 billion), after a Germany-led coalition opposed a further expansion of the region’s anti-crisis firewall. Adding the 300 billion euros already committed to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, euro-area finance ministers put the overall size of the firewall at 800 billion euros. In a statement, they ruled out using the 240 billion euros left in the temporary rescue fund to go beyond that. Europe is counting on the sums pledged so far, plus a 1 trillion-euro cash infusion by the European Central Bank into the financial system, to persuade the rest of the world that it is doing enough to keep the two-year-old debt crisis at bay.
The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts as stocks and commodities advanced, boosting demand for higher- yielding assets. The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.4 percent to 78.900, touching the lowest level since March 1.
The yen erased gains after touching a three- week high against the dollar amid speculation companies are bringing home overseas earnings before the fiscal year ends tomorrow. Speculation Japanese companies are buying the yen to bring home overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year also boosted the currency earlier.
Protective barrier and its size does not matter if you do not solve all problems
At the moment, Germany is in an extremely favorable economic situation
The head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker adjourned the meeting of finance ministers of the eurozone countries, held on Friday, March 30, sharply reacted to the statement by the Minister of Finance of Austria, Maria Fekter, who earlier in the day told reporters that the question of the size of the stabilization fund has already been agreed. Juncker also refused to give a press conference, explaining that he sees no sense in it, because Fekter have answered all questions, even though the meeting had not yet ended.
It should be noted that due to the suspension of the meeting remained unresolved several issues relating to shifts in the leadership ranks. So, on the agenda were questions of who will succeed Juncker at the head of the Eurogroup, and will include whether the board chairman of the ECB central bank of Luxembourg Yves Mersch.
Recall that in early March, Juncker announced his intention to leave his post, and, according to informed sources, the most likely candidate to replace him is Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.
- current conditions 86.0 vs 84.2;
- expectations 69.8 vs 68.0;
- 1y infl expectation 3.9%, 5y 3.0%;
- 12m econ outlook index 79 vs 74 prelim an 82 in Feb.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3500, $1.3470, $1.3450, $1.3415/25, $1.3400
Bids $1.3325/20, $1.3250/40
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0555/60, $1.0515/20, $1.0490/00, $1.0475/80, $1.0445/50, $1.0420/25
Bids $1.0370/65, $1.0345/40, $1.0300, $1.0255/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.35/40, Y83.20/25, Y82.95/00, Y82.45/50, Y82.20/25
Bids Y81.80, Y81.50/45, Y81.20, Y81.00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y111.25/30, Y111.00, Y110.85/90, Y110.45/50, Y110.20/25, Y110.00, Y109.85/90
Bids Y109.30/25, Y109.10/00, Y108.80/75, Y108.50/45, Y108.40/35, Y108.00/80
Resistance 3: Y83.40 (Mar 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y83.00 (area of Mar 29 high and МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y82.50 (session high)
Current price: Y81.99
Support 1: Y81.95/85 (area of Mar 13, 23, 29 and session low)
Support 2: Y81.50 (area of Mar 9 low and МА (200) for Н4)
Support 3: Y81.00 (38,2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.15)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9140 (Mar 23-26 highs)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9085/90 (МА (200) for Н1, Mar 29 )
Resistance 1: Chf0.9040 (intraday high)
Current price: Chf0.9023
Support 1: Chf0.9015/00 (Mar 27-28 lows, session low, psychological level)
Support 2: Chf0.8930 (high of February)
Support 3: Chf0.8850 (МА (200) for D1)
Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (high of November)
Resistance 2 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.6030 (session high)
Current price: $1.6019
Support 1 : $1.5960 (area of low of european session, 38.2 % FIBO $1.5840-$ 1.6030)
Support 2 : $1.5935 (area of high of european session on Mar 29 and 50.0 % FIBO $1.5840-$ 1.6030)
Support 3 : $1.5900 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 3 : $1.3550 (high of December)
Resistance 2 : $1.3490 (high of February)
Resistance 1 : $1.3375/85 (area of Mar 27 high and session high)
Current price: $1.3336
Support 1 : $1.3320 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3275 (МА (200) for Н1, support line from Mar 15)
Support 3 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)
EMU states committed to provide E150bln additional funds to IMF
credit supply restrictions are not biting now
- confident 3-year ltros will prevent credit crunch
credit supply restrictions are not biting now
- confident 3-year ltros will prevent credit crunch
EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3200
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.50, Y82.75, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.5950, $1.5965, $1.5985
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400, $1.0600
USD/NOK Nok5.7430
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m February -7.3% +3.0%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.2% +0.3% +0.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +3.5% +3.5% +3.5%
The euro rose toward a one-month high on prospects European finance ministers will agree to increase rescue funds at a two-day meeting starting today. The 17-nation euro was poised for its biggest quarterly gain versus the yen in 11 years before data forecast to show German retail sales increased. Retail sales in Germany probably rose 1.1 percent in February from the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden releases its data today.
The yen strengthened against all of its 16 major peers after data showed Japanese consumer prices unexpectedly rose, reducing the case for further Bank of Japan easing. Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food climbed 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.1 percent decline. A separate report showed unemployment fell to 4.5 percent last month from 4.6 percent in January. The currency touched a three-week high against the dollar amid speculation Japanese companies are repatriating overseas earnings before the fiscal year ends tomorrow.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain on a floor of a figure to $1.3350.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose moving ahead to a level $1.6000.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, updated a new week’s low.
On Friday, European central bankers and finance ministers gather for the informal ECOFIN meeting, in Copenhagen, which continues into Saturday. European data starts at 0600GMT with German retail sales data, while a raft of France data at 0645GMT includes Q4 Maastricht debt data and 2011 public deficit and debt data as well as February consumer spending and PPI. EMU flash HICP data for March is also due, at 0900GMT. US data starts at 1230GMT when personal income is expected to rise 0.4% in February. At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to be revised up to a reading of 75.0 in March from the 74.3 preliminary estimate. US data continues at 1400GMT with the latest BLS State Unemployment data and rounds off at 2015GMT with C&I Loans data.
Yesterday the yen rose against all of its 16 major counterparts as concern increased that Europe’s sovereign- debt crisis threatens global economic growth and stocks dropped amid safety demand. Japan’s currency reached an almost three-week high versus the dollar on speculation the country’s companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on March 31. Speculation Japanese companies are repatriating overseas earnings before fiscal year-end also boosted the yen.
The 17-nation currency euro fell from almost a one-month high versus the dollar after economic confidence in the region unexpectedly declined in March. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area fell to 94.4 from a revised 94.5 in February, the European Commission said. Economists had forecast a gain to 94.5 from a previously reported 94.4, the median of 29 estimates showed. A draft statement dated March 23 showed that European governments are preparing for a one- year increase in the ceiling on rescue aid for indebted nations to 940 billion euros ($1.2 trillion) to keep the crisis at bay. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on March 26 her country may back plans for the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism to run in parallel.
The pound rose the most in two weeks against the euro after a European report showed consumer confidence fell, boosting the appeal of U.K. assets as a haven. Gilts handed investors a 1.8 percent loss this year, according to indexes the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Treasuries dropped 1.2 percent in the period. U.K. house prices fell 0.9 percent in March from a year earlier, the first decline in six months, Nationwide said. U.K. banks granted fewer loans for homes than economists predicted in February, Bank of England data showed.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair decreased to $1.3250, but restored later.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair traded nearby $1.5900.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y82.00.
On Friday, European central bankers and finance ministers gather for the informal ECOFIN meeting, in Copenhagen, which continues into Saturday. European data starts at 0600GMT with German retail sales data, while a raft of France data at 0645GMT includes Q4 Maastricht debt data and 2011 public deficit and debt data as well as February consumer spending and PPI. EMU flash HICP data for March is also due, at 0900GMT. US data starts at 1230GMT when personal income is expected to rise 0.4% in February. At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to be revised up to a reading of 75.0 in March from the 74.3 preliminary estimate. US data continues at 1400GMT with the latest BLS State Unemployment data and rounds off at 2015GMT with C&I Loans data.
Asian stocks fell for a second day on concern China’s economic slowdown is weighing on company earnings and after orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods rose less than economists estimated.
Nikkei 225 10,114.79 -67.78 -0.67%
Hang Seng 20,609.39 -276.03 -1.32%
S&P/ASX 200 4,337.9 -5.61 -0.13%
Shanghai Composite 2,252.16 -32.72 -1.43%
PICC Property & Casualty Co. slid 4.1 percent in Hong Kong after China’s biggest non-life insurer reported lower-than- expected net income.
Toyota Motor Corp., Asia’s No. 1 carmaker by market value that gets 28 percent of its revenue in North America, fell 1.7 percent.
Speco Co. led gains among South Korean defense-related companies on a report that North Korea has begun to fuel a rocket it plans to launch.
European stocks declined the most in more than three weeks as Standard & Poor’s said Greece may have to restructure its debt again.
European governments are preparing for a one-year increase in the ceiling on rescue aid to 940 billion euros ($1.25 trillion) to keep the debt crisis at bay, according to a draft statement written for finance ministers before they meet in Copenhagen tomorrow. German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week gave her first indication that she is prepared to allow an increase in the firewall.
An indicator of economic confidence in the euro region unexpectedly declined in March. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17-nation euro area dropped to 94.4 from a revised 94.5 in February, the European Commission said.
National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets, except Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 1.2 percent, while France’s CAC 40 Index declined 1.4 percent and Germany’s DAX slumped 1.8 percent.
H&M dropped 4.9 percent to 238.1 kronor in Stockholm, the largest decline since September, after reporting first-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as textile costs and markdowns weighed on profitability.
Roche Holding AG, the biggest maker of cancer drugs, fell 1.8 percent to 157 francs after raising its hostile takeover offer for Illumina Inc. by 15 percent to about $6.7 billion.
International Power Plc rallied 5.6 percent to 405 pence as it received an indicative offer from GDF Suez SA of 6 billion pounds ($9.5 billion) for the 30 percent stake it doesn’t already own.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index trimmed losses in the final two hours of trading ahead of data forecast to show growth in consumer confidence and spending tomorrow, the final day of the best first quarter since 1998.
Benchmark equity indexes slumped earlier as S&P said Greece may have to restructure its debt again. There may be “down the road, I’m not predicting today when, another restructuring of the outstanding debt,” said Moritz Kraemer, head of sovereign ratings at S&P. In the U.S., claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest since April 2008. The economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate from October through December, separate data showed.
Dow 13,145.82 +19.61 +0.15%, Nasdaq 3,095.36 -9.60 -0.31%, S&P 500 1,403.28 -2.26 -0.16%
Gauges of utility and health-care companies in the S&P 500 gained, while financial shares slumped. Alcoa (АА) added 2 percent to $10.03. Caterpillar (САТ) rose 1.7 percent to $106.02. Coca-Cola (КО) advanced 1.6 percent to $73.81.
Red Hat surged 20 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to a 12-year high of $61.43. The company was surprised by demand for its Red Hat Enterprise Linux software from corporations preparing to move more applications to the so-called cloud, where they can be delivered to users over the Internet, Chief Executive Officer Jim Whitehurst said in an interview. Profit for the current fiscal year will be as much as $1.20 a share, the company projected, exceeding estimates.
Illumina Inc. climbed 5.1 percent to $52.40. Roche Holding AG raised its hostile takeover offer for Illumina by 15 percent to about $6.7 billion, yielding to demands for a higher price from shareholders of the U.S. maker of gene-mapping tools.
Best Buy tumbled 7 percent to $24.77. Chief Executive Officer Brian Dunn trimmed discounts after the holiday shopping season, sacrificing sales to maintain profitability. The retailer is closing big-box stores and cutting jobs to reduce costs while boosting online sales and opening smaller locations.
Resistance 3: Y83.40 (Mar 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y82.95 (Mar 29 high)
Resistance 1: Y82.50 (session high)
The current price: Y81.99
Support 1: Y81.80 (session low)
Support 2: Y81.45 (Mar 9 low)
Support 3: Y80.55 (Mar 6-7 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9135 (Mar 26 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9090 (Mar 29 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9065 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9027
Support 1: Chf0.9015 (Mar 27-28 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8980 (138.2% FIBO Chf0.9335-Chf0.9075)
Support 3: Chf0.8930/35 (area of Feb 24-29 lows)
Resistance 3 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.6040 (Oct 24-26 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.6000 (Mar 27 high)
The current price: $1.5978
Support 1 : $1.5935 (high of the European session on Mar 29)
Support 2 : $1.5860 (Mar 29 low)
Support 3 : $1.5840 (Mar 28 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (Feb 24-29 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3415 (high of the American session on Feb 27)
Resistance 1 : $1.3375/85 (area of Mar 27-28 highs)
The current price: $1.3350
Support 1 : $1.3305 (low of the Asian session on Mar 29)
Support 2 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)
Support 3 : $1.3190 (Mar 26 low)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3300 -0,11%
GBP/USD $1,5950 +0,40%
USD/CHF Chf0,9064 +0,14%
USD/JPY Y82,39 -0,59%
EUR/JPY Y109,57 -0,71%
GBP/JPY Y131,42 -0,19%
AUD/USD $1,0376 -0,13%
NZD/USD $0,8169 -0,07%
USD/CAD C$0,9966 -0,19%
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m February -7.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +3.5% +3.5%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted February -1.6% +1.3%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y February +1.6% +0.1%
06:45 France Consumer spending February -0.4% +0.2%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y February -2.2% -2.5%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator March -0.12 0.08
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) March +2.7% +2.5%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings 0
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) January +0.4% +0.1%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m February +0.2% +0.1%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y February +1.9% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m February +0.3% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. Personal spending February +0.2% +0.6%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index March 64.0 63.3
13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (finally) March 74.3 75.1
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