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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-04-2012.
The euro lost the most in almost a month against the dollar after demand declined at a Spanish bond auction, adding to concern the region is struggling to overcome its sovereign-debt crisis. Spain sold 2.59 billion euros of bonds today, less than its maximum target of 3.5 billion euros, the central bank said. Demand for notes maturing in 2015 was 2.41 times the amount allotted, down from 4.96 at the previous sale of the maturity in March. It also sold securities due in 2016 and 2020. The 17-nation currency weakened after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate at a record low and President Mario Draghi said the economic outlook remained subject to “downside risks.”
Sterling rallied as U.K. services growth accelerated last month and house prices increased. The pound rose against most of its major peers before the Bank of England meets tomorrow. Sterling gained 0.6 percent to 82.68 pence per euro after a gauge of U.K. services activity based on a survey of purchasing managers increased to 55.3 from 53.8 in February. A separate report showed house prices climbed 2.2 percent in March from the previous month, Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax division said.
The yen and dollar strengthened versus all their most- traded counterparts amid demand for the relative safety of the nations’ debt.
Employment 56.7 vs 55.7 in Feb
New orders 58.8 vs 61.2 in Feb
Prices paid 63.9 vs 68.4 in Feb
EUR/USD $1.3195, $1.3230, $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6025, $1.6050
AUD/USD $1.0190, $1.0225, $1.0250, $1.0375, $1.0400
funding conditions have generally improved
infl likely to stay above 2% 2012; upside risks
- moderate recov expected in course of year; downsid risk
- measures have contributed to financial stabilization
- all nonstand measures temporary
- infl likely to stay above 2% 2012; upside risks
- moderate recov expected in course of year; downsid risk
- measures have contributed to financial stabilization
- all nonstand measures temporary
Data:
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March -0.5% -0.3% +2.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March -1.9% -1.7% -0.6%
07:50 France Services PMI (finally) March 50.0 50.0 50.1
07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) March 52.8 51.8 52.1
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) March 48.8 48.7 49.2
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services March 53.8 53.5 55.3
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February +0.3% +0.1% -0.1%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 0.0% -1.1% -2.1%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -2.7% +1.3% +0.3%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -4.9% -5.5% -4.5%
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
The euro weakened against the dollar after demand declined at a Spanish bond auction, adding to concern the region is struggling to overcome its sovereign debt crisis.
Europe’s shared currency fell to a three-week low against the yen as the European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent.
The auction was the first since Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro presented the government’s spending plans on March 30 and said public debt will rise to a record 79.8 percent of gross domestic product even as the nation makes the deepest cuts in three decades.
Spanish 10-year bond yields rose as much as 26 basis points to a 12-week high of 5.71 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) dropped 1.1 percent.
The ECB’s decision to leave the refinancing rate unchanged was forecast by all 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 12:30 GMT to explain the decision.
EUR/USD: the pair fell in $1,3150 area.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in $1,5860/50.
USD/JPY: the pair showed low in Y82,10 area, but slightly receded later.
US data continues at 1400GMT when the ISM non-manufacturing index is forecast to fall to a reading of 57.0 in March after rising in the previous month. The weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is also due, at 1430GMT. At 1500GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to a San Francisco Planning and Urban Research business breakfast.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3300/15, $1.3280, $1.3265/70, $1.3240, $1.3220
Bids $1.3135/30, $1.3100/090, $1.3050, $1.3035/30
Resistance 3: Y83.30/40 (area of Mar 27 and Apr 2 highs)
Resistance 2: Y83.00 (Apr 3 high)
Resistance 1: Y82.60 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y82.31
Support 1: Y82.10 (session low)
Support 2: Y81.55 (Apr 3 low)
Support 3: Y81.10 (38,2 % FIBO Y76,00-Y84,20)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9340 (high of March)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9250 (Mar 16 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9180 (Mar 22 high)
Current price: Chf0.9153
Support 1: Chf0.9140 (earlier resistance, Mar 26 high)
Support 2: Chf0.9090 (earlier resistance, Mar 29 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (area МА (200) for Н1 and resistance line from Mar 26)
Resistance 3 : $1.5980 (area of Apr 2 low)
Resistance 2 : $1.5940 (МА (200) for Н1, support line from Mar 12)
Resistance 1 : $1.5915 (area of session high)
Current price: $1.5867
Support 1 : $1.5840 (Mar 28 low)
Support 2 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)
Support 3 : $1.5770 (Mar 22 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3300 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3250 (session high, Mar 29 low)
Resistance 1 : $1.3210 (area of high of european session)
Current price: $1.3158
Support 1 : $1.3150 (38.2 % FIBO $1.3000-$ 1.3390)
Support 2 : $1.3050 (Mar 16 low)
Support 3 : $1.3000 (low of March)
bailout won’t be needed if Greece sticks to the terms of the 2nd loan agreement;
- expects Greece to return to growth next year.
EUR/USD $1.3195, $1.3230, $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6025, $1.6050
AUD/USD $1.0190, $1.0225, $1.0250, $1.0375, $1.0400
00:00 China Bank holiday
01:30 Australia Trade Balance February -0.67 1.12 -0.48
The dollar rose to a more than one-week high versus the euro as signs of improving U.S. employment support the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off from increasing monetary accommodation. The U.S. currency rose against 14 of its 16 major peers ahead of a private report forecast to show gains in employment in March held near the most in two months. Figures based on payrolls from ADP Employer Services due to be published today may show U.S. employment increased by 206,000 last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That compares with a gain of 216,000 in February, the biggest in two months.
The euro fell versus the dollar and yen before ECB policy makers gather for an interest-rate decision today. Officials are expected to keep the bank’s key rate unchanged at 1 percent, according to all 57 forecasters polled before the meeting. Retail sales in the euro-area probably dropped 0.2 percent in February after a 0.3 percent gain the previous month, according to the median estimate in a separate survey.
Australia’s dollar sank to an 11-week low as data showed the nation had a trade deficit for a second-straight month. Australia unexpectedly posted a trade deficit for a second month in February, completing the first consecutive shortfalls in two years. Imports outpaced exports by A$480 million ($493 million), from a revised A$971 million deficit in January, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a surplus of A$1.1 billion.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.3200.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.5900.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair decreased, after yesterday's growth.
Wednesday morning sees the release of the final services PMI data from the main European states, including France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data shortly after, at 0758GMT. EMU data continues at 0900GMT with retail trade for February, which is followed at 1000GMT by German manufacturing orders data. The ECB is due to announce it's monetary policy decision at 1145GMT. The usual press conference follows at 1230GMT. UK data at 0700GMT the UK Halifax house price index is due, while at 0830GMT UK data also includes the Markit/CIPS Services PMI for March as well as Building Materials and Narrow Money data along with Official Reserves. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data. At 1200GMT, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago, while at 1215GMT, the ADP National Employment Report is due. US data continues at 1400GMT when the ISM non-manufacturing index is forecast to fall to a reading of 57.0 in March after rising in the previous month. The weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is also due, at 1430GMT. At 1500GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to a San Francisco Planning and Urban Research business breakfast.
Yesterday the dollar fluctuated after touching an almost one-month low against the euro before the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes of its March meeting where policy makers raised their assessment of the economy. The FOMC will release minutes of its March 13 meeting when policy makers raised their economic assessment while repeating that “exceptionally low” interest rates may be needed through late 2014. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke still said on March 26 that further stimulus may be needed to lower unemployment.
The 17-nation currency weakened from its strongest level as Spanish bond yields rose and the nation’s unemployment increased for an eighth month. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds climbed eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 5.43 percent. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is implementing the deepest austerity measures since the nation returned to a democracy in 1978, pushing Spain’s IBEX 35 Index to the only loss during the first quarter among national measures in Western Europe. The European Central Bank meets for an interest rate decision.
The Australian dollar weakened versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Reserve Bank signaled it may resume lowering borrowing costs as soon as next month if weaker-than- expected growth slows inflation.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure to $1.3200.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure to $1.5900.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y82.00.
Wednesday morning sees the release of the final services PMI data from the main European states, including France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data shortly after, at 0758GMT. EMU data continues at 0900GMT with retail trade for February, which is followed at 1000GMT by German manufacturing orders data. The ECB is due to announce it's monetary policy decision at 1145GMT. The usual press conference follows at 1230GMT. UK data at 0700GMT the UK Halifax house price index is due, while at 0830GMT UK data also includes the Markit/CIPS Services PMI for March as well as Building Materials and Narrow Money data along with Official Reserves. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data. At 1200GMT, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago, while at 1215GMT, the ADP National Employment Report is due. US data continues at 1400GMT when the ISM non-manufacturing index is forecast to fall to a reading of 57.0 in March after rising in the previous month. The weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is also due, at 1430GMT. At 1500GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to a San Francisco Planning and Urban Research business breakfast.
Resistance 3: Y84.10/15 (Mar 21 high)
Resistance 2: Y83.40 (Mar 27 high)
Resistance 1: Y83.00 (Apr 3 high)
The current price: Y82.73
Support 1: Y82.40 (high of the European session on Apr 3)
Support 2: Y81.85 (Mar 29-30 low)
Support 3: Y81.55 (Apr 3 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 22 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9150 (Mar 20 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9135 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9119
Support 1: Chf0.9095 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (high of the European session on Apr 3)
Resistance 3 : $1.6045 (Apr 3 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5975 (high of the American session on Apr 3)
Resistance 1 : $1.5920 (session high)
The current price: $1.5889
Support 1 : $1.5870 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5840 (Mar 28 low)
Support 3 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3365 (Apr 3 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3300 (low of the European session on Apr 3)
Resistance 1 : $1.3240 (session high)
The current price: $1.3200
Support 1 : $1.3185 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3130/40 (area of Mar 22 lows)
Support 3 : $1.3045 (Mar 16 low)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3234 -0,62%
GBP/USD $1,5911 -0,69%
USD/CHF Chf0,9095 +0,62%
USD/JPY Y82,81 +0,87%
EUR/JPY Y109,59 +0,25%
GBP/JPY Y131,74 +0,17%
AUD/USD $1,0328 -0,77%
NZD/USD $0,8194 -0,52%
USD/CAD C$0,9908 +0,01%
00:00 China Bank holiday 0
01:30 Australia Trade Balance February -0.67 1.12
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March -0.5% -0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March -1.9% -1.7%
07:50 France Services PMI (finally) March 50.0 50.0
07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) March 52.8 51.8
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) March 48.8 48.7
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services March 53.8 53.5
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February +0.3% +0.1%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 0.0% -1.1%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -2.7% +1.3%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -4.9% -5.5%
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 1.00% 1.00%
12:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks 0
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report March 216 209
12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference 0
14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing March 57.3 56.8
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks 0
14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 30.03.2012 +7.1
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