Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 03-04-2012.

• • Forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are not significantly changed due to recent data

  • Experts Fed lowered the forecast of potential GDP

  • Inflation forecast "slightly" elevated

The dollar fluctuated after touching an almost one-month low against the euro before the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes of its March meeting where policy makers raised their assessment of the economy. The FOMC will release minutes of its March 13 meeting when policy makers raised their economic assessment while repeating that “exceptionally low” interest rates may be needed through late 2014. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke still said on March 26 that further stimulus may be needed to lower unemployment.

The 17-nation currency weakened from its strongest level as Spanish bond yields rose and the nation’s unemployment increased for an eighth month. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds climbed eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 5.43 percent. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is implementing the deepest austerity measures since the nation returned to a democracy in 1978, pushing Spain’s IBEX 35 Index to the only loss during the first quarter among national measures in Western Europe. The European Central Bank meets for an interest rate decision tomorrow.

The Australian dollar weakened versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Reserve Bank signaled it may resume lowering borrowing costs as soon as next month if weaker-than- expected growth slows inflation.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3325, $1.3365

USD/JPY Y81.75, Y82.00, Y82.35, Y83.85, Y84.00

GBP/USD $1.5990, $1.5950, $1.5800

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0370-75, $1.0400

EUR/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.3470, $1.3450, $1.3415/25, $1.3400 

Ордера на покупку $1.3280/70, $1.3250/40

GBP/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.6090/100, $1.6070/80, $1.6065

Ордера на покупку $1.5965/50, $1.5925/20, $1.5900/890, $1.5860, $1.5825/20

Resistance 3: Y83.30/40 (area of Mar 27 and Apr 2 highs)

Resistance 2: Y82.60 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Y82.20 (session high)

Current price: Y82.07

Support 1: Y82.55 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.80 (Mar 30 low)

Support 3: Y81.10 (38,2 % FIBO Y76,00-Y84,20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9140 (Mar 26 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9090 (Mar 29 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from Mar 26)

Current price: Chf0.9029

Support 1: Chf0.9000 (session low, Mar 2 low, psychological level)

Support 2: Chf0.8930 (low of February)

Support 3: Chf0.8850 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (high of November)

Resistance 2 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6060 (Apr 2 high)

Current price: $1.6001

Support 1 : $1.5980 (area of Apr 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.5910/00 (area of МА (200) for Н1 and support line from Mar 12)

Support 3 : $1.5840 (Mar 28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3550 (high of December)

Resistance 2 : $1.3490 (high of February)

Resistance 1 : $1.3390 (area of Mar 27 and on Apr 2 highs)  

Current price: $1.3341

Support 1 : $1.3310 (area of session low and support line from Mar 15)

Support 2 : $1.3280 (Apr 2 low)

Support 3 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3325, $1.3365

USD/JPY Y81.75, Y82.00, Y82.35, Y83.85, Y84.00

GBP/USD $1.5990, $1.5950, $1.5800

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0370-75, $1.0400

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI March 48.4 58.0

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY Februar 0.0% +0.2% +0.7%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) February +0.3% +0.2% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y February +2.7% +1.9%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

The dollar declined against most of its major peers as signs of recovery in the U.S. economy sapped demand for the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency. The greenback held a decline versus the New Zealand dollar before a government report forecast to show U.S. factory orders rebounded in February, which would follow figures yesterday that signaled an acceleration in manufacturing.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release today minutes of its March 13 meeting when policy makers raised their assessment of the economy while repeating that “exceptionally low” interest rates may be needed through late 2014. The bank bought $2.3 trillion of debt under two rounds of so-called quantitative easing, or QE, from December 2008 to June 2011.

Australia’s currency reversed gains after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its overnight cash target unchanged at 4.25 percent for a third month today, after reducing borrowing costs twice in the last quarter of 2011.

The yen rose amid speculation traders pared bets against the currency. The scale of yen weakness may be overdone, setting the stage for the currency to rally, strategists at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., including Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research, wrote in an April foreign-exchange outlook. The dollar-yen rate is likely to go back to and possibly below the 80 level, according to the report published yesterday.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain to $1.3350.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.6020-$1.6045.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y81.55.

On Tuesday core-European data includes German car registrations data, although scheduled releases sees EMU Q4 GDP and February PPI data. UK data starts at 0830GMT Tuesday with the release of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI for March. US data includes February auto sales results through the day, where domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to rise to an 11.5 million annual rate after warmer-than-usual weather resulted in solid readings in the previous two months. At 1345GMT, the ISM-NY Business Index is due, while at 1400GMT, factory new orders are expected to rise 1.5% in February. Durables orders were  already reported up 2.2% on rebounds in a number of components after sharp January declines. Focus shifts to the Fed later in the session with the 1800GMT release of the latest FOMC minutes.

Yesterday the yen rose against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts amid investor concern that Chinese manufacturing was weaker as official government data conflicted with a private-sector purchasing-manager index. The Chinese purchasing manager’s index released by the country’s logistics federation and National Bureau of Statistics for March rose to a one-year high of 53.1. In contrast, a PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed manufacturing contracting and export orders declining. The index fell to 48.3 in March from 49.6 the previous month. The Tankan index for Japan’s largest manufacturers was unchanged last quarter from minus 4 in December, the BOJ said today in Tokyo. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.

Currencies of commodity-producing nations rallied against the dollar after a report showed manufacturing in the U.S. increased last month. Australia’s dollar had its biggest intraday gain versus the greenback in two months. The figures compare with a gain in the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index to 53.4 from 52.4 in February. Economists forecast an increase to 53. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The euro may weaken to match the lowest level since September 2010 against the pound after failing to rise above 84 pence, Karen Jones, a technical strategist in London, wrote in an e-mailed note. Europe’s shared currency slipped against the dollar after euro-region unemployment rose to the highest level in more than 14 years and manufacturing contracted.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.3300, however restored later.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair raised, updated a monthly high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y82.00.

On Tuesday core-European data includes German car registrations data, although scheduled releases sees EMU Q4 GDP and February PPI data. UK data starts at 0830GMT Tuesday with the release of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI for March. US data includes February auto sales results through the day, where domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to rise to an 11.5 million annual rate after warmer-than-usual weather resulted in solid readings in the previous two months. At 1345GMT, the ISM-NY Business Index is due, while at 1400GMT, factory new orders are expected to rise 1.5% in February. Durables orders were  already reported up 2.2% on rebounds in a number of components after sharp January declines. Focus shifts to the Fed later in the session with the 1800GMT release of the latest FOMC minutes.

Resistance 3: Y83.30 (Apr 2 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.65 (MA (233) H1)

Resistance 1: Y82.25 (session high)

The current price: Y83.08

Support 1: Y81.54 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.15 (Mar 5 low)

Support 3: Y80.22 (Mar 7 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9090 (Mar 29 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9040 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9025

Support 1: Chf0.9015 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9000 (Apr 2 low)

Support 3: Chf0.8980 (138.2% FIBO Chf0.9335-Chf0.9075)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (Nov 8 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6065 (Apr 2 high)

The current price: $1.6034

Support 1 : $1.6015 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5975 (Apr 2 low)

Support 3 : $1.5935 (high of the European session on Mar 29)

Resistance 3 : $1.3415 (high of the American session on Feb 27)

Resistance 2 : $1.3380 (Apr 2 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3355 (session high)

The current price: $1.3333

Support 1 : $1.3310 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3275 (Apr 2 low)

Support 3 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3316 -0,15%

GBP/USD $1,6020 +0,17%

USD/CHF Chf0,9039 +0,15%

USD/JPY Y82,09 -0,85%

EUR/JPY Y109,32 -0,99%

GBP/JPY Y131,51 -0,67%

AUD/USD $1,0408 +0,50%

NZD/USD $0,8237 +0,61%

USD/CAD C$ 0,9907 -0,67%

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI March 48.4

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY February 0.0% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) February +0.3% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y February +2.7%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 0 4.25% 4.25%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement 0

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March -0.5% -0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March -1.9% -1.7%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction March 54.3 53.6

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (finally) IV quarter +0.2% -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (finally) IV quarter +1.4%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM February +0.7% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) February +3.7% +3.5%

14:00 U.S. API Monthly Report February -1.0% +1.4%

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes 0

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index March 46.7