Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 29-03-2012.

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29.03.2012
18:32
Fed Chairman Bernanke's Lecture: "Recent stress tests showed "significant" improvement in the stability of banks”

  • Lower long-term interest rates have helped to stimulate the recovery of

  • The influence of interest rates in the housing market is "weaker than hoped for"

  • The credibility of the Fed helped to lower inflation expectations remain

  • A more transparent mechanism of communication can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy

  • The rate of recovery "very sluggish"

  • The unemployment rate remains "painfully high"

  • Concerns about the fiscal problems in Europe have created tensions in the markets

  • The crisis highlighted the need to maintain financial stability

  • Laid the foundations for a "slow but steady" economic recovery

  • New regulatory measures will reduce but not eliminate the risk of future crises

  • In many respects, the banks are stronger than before the crisis

  • The Fed prints money to buy assets

  • The Fed "quite successfully" kept inflation low

  • Forecasts on the rates are based on "the current vision of the economy," the leaders of the Fed

  • Technologies are becoming more powerful engine of economic growth

18:15
American focus: the yen rose

 

The yen rose against all of its 16 major counterparts as concern increased that Europe’s sovereign- debt crisis threatens global economic growth and stocks dropped amid safety demand. Japan’s currency reached an almost three-week high versus the dollar on speculation the country’s companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on March 31. Speculation Japanese companies are repatriating overseas earnings before fiscal year-end also boosted the yen.

The 17-nation currency euro fell from almost a one-month high versus the dollar after economic confidence in the region unexpectedly declined in March. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area fell to 94.4 from a revised 94.5 in February, the European Commission said today. Economists had forecast a gain to 94.5 from a previously reported 94.4, the median of 29 estimates showed. A draft statement dated March 23 showed that European governments are preparing for a one- year increase in the ceiling on rescue aid for indebted nations to 940 billion euros ($1.2 trillion) to keep the crisis at bay. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on March 26 her country may back plans for the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism to run in parallel.

The pound rose the most in two weeks against the euro after a European report showed consumer confidence fell, boosting the appeal of U.K. assets as a haven. Gilts handed investors a 1.8 percent loss this year, according to indexes the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Treasuries dropped 1.2 percent in the period. U.K. house prices fell 0.9 percent in March from a year earlier, the first decline in six months, Nationwide said. U.K. banks granted fewer loans for homes than economists predicted in February, Bank of England data showed today.

16:22
Eurogroup draft statements: a combined reserve capacity of the eurozone stabilization funds will be by mid-2013 E700 billion

 

    • In emergency situations, may increase the fund size to E940 billion rescue

    • Active EFSF will continue after July 2012 only applied to the maintenance of existing programs

    • Contributions to the fund ESM euro area will occur as follows: two tranches in 2012, another two - in 2013 and a final - in 2014

    • The capital will be reviewed by ESM

 

14:25
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) says Q1 US GDP is tracking +2.4% "recent improvements in labor markets bode well for continued growth in consumer spending".
14:07
Italy 10-year yield breaks above 5.25%
14:00
BNP est +200k non-farm payrolls in the March.
13:47
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.3390, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y83.10, Y84.00

GBP/USD $1.5850

AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0425, $1.0485, $1.0525

EUR/AUDA$1.2770, A$1.2825

AUD/CHF Chf0.9400

AUD/JPY Y86.65

 

13:19
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.3%

 

U.S. stock-index futures extended losses after jobless claims topped economists’ forecasts, damping optimism about the economy.

Initial jobless claims were 359,000 last week, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a survey called for 350,000 claims.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  10,114.79 -67.78 -0.67%

Hang Seng 20,609.39 -276.03 -1.32%

Shanghai Composite 2,252.16 -32.72 -1.43%

FTSE  5,762.97 -46.02 -0.79%

CAC  3,400.21 -29.94 -0.87%

DAX 6,917.55 -81.25 -1.16%

Crude oil $105.22 (-0.2%).

Gold $1661.40 (+0,2%).

 

12:48
European session: the euro fell

Data:

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.3% -1.0%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +0.9% +0.9% -0.9%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change March 0 -10 -18

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. March 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln February 1.8 1.5 1.2

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals February 59 59 48


The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday as concerns about contagion from the euro zone debt crisis overshadowed a solid Italian bond auction, and

looked set to stay pressured ahead of talks to boost the region's financial firewall on Friday.

Despite decent demand at an auction of Italian five- and 10-year bonds, Italian and Spanish yields rose, dragging the euro to a session low of $1.3273.

But the shared currency remained vulnerable to concerns of contagion spreading to the euro zone's larger economies, and a general strike in Spain and the Spanish budget on Friday fanned bearish sentiment.

Expectations over the size of the rescue fund have been tempered by European Central Bank governing council member and Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann who warned that raising the firewall around stricken euro zone members would only buy time.

Traders said comments from the OECD that euro zone nations are falling far behind the United States and Canada as a fragile recovery takes root in advanced economies also weighed on the single currency.


EUR/USD: the pair fell in area of strong support $1,3260.


GBP/USD: the pair decreased, but not managed to overcome support in $1,5860/50 area (МА (200) for D1) and receded in $1,5880 area.


USD/JPY: the pair showed low in Y82.10 area then restored in Y82.30 area.


At 1645GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the final of four lectures at the George Washington School of Business. Then at 1700GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speaks to the Rotary Club of Wilmington. Later US data includes the 1900GMT release of agriculture prices and 2030GMT release of money supply data.

12:31
Canada: Industrial product prices, m/m, February +0.2% (forecast +0.6%)
12:31
Canada: Raw Material Price Index, February -0.5% (forecast +0.4%)
12:30
U.S.: GDP, y/y, IV quarter +3.0% (forecast +3.0%)
12:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, 24/03/2012 359 (forecast 351)
11:48
Orders

 

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3470, $1.3450, $1.3415/25, $1.3400, $1.3350/60

Bids $1.3265/50, $1.3240, $1.3225/20, $1.3200/190

 

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6035/50, $1.6015/20, $1.5935/45

Bids $1.5850, $1.5825/20, $1.5805/00


USD/JPY

Offers Y84.00, Y83.75/80, Y83.35/40, Y83.20/25, Y82.95/00

Bids Y82.00, Y81.80, Y81.50/45, Y81.20


EUR/JPY

Offers Y111.25/30, Y111.00, Y110.85/90, Y110.45/50, Y109.55/60

Bids  Y109.00, Y108.80/75, Y108.50/45, Y108.40/35, Y108.00/80, Y107.55/50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8465/70, stg0.8440/45, stg0.8420/30, stg0.8395/400

Bids stg0.8350, stg0.8335/30, stg0.8325/20, stg0.8300, stg0.8280/75, stg0.8265/55


AUD/USD

Offers $1.0490/00, $1.0475/80, $1.0445/50, $1.0420/25, $1.0400/10

Bids $1.0310/00, $1.0255/50

 

11:37
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y83.40 (Mar 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y83.00 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Y82.60 (earlier support, area of Mar 27-28 lows)

Current price: Y82.25

Support 1: Y82.00/90 (Mar 13 and 23 lows)

Support 2: Y81.50 (Mar 9 low, МА (200) for Н4)

Support 3: Y81.00 (38,2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.15)


 

11:31
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19 and 22 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Mar 23-26 highs)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9085/90 (session high, Mar 28 high, МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: Chf0.9076

Support 1: Chf0.9040 (support line from Mar 28)

Support 2: Chf0.9010 (Mar 28 low)

Support 3: Chf0.8930 (low of February)


 

11:27
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.5930 (session high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5900 (resistance line from Mar 27)

Resistance 1 : $1.5880 (МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: $1.5870

Support 1 : $1.5855/40 (area of support line from Mar 22, session low and Mar 28 low)

Support 2 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)

Support 3 : $1.5770 (Mar 22 low)


 

11:19
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.3550 (high of December)

Resistance 2 : $1.3490 (high of February)

Resistance 1 : $1.3330 (resistance line from Mar 27)  

Current price: $1.3274

Support 1 : $1.3260 (session low, МА (200) for Н1, the bottom border of the down channel from Mar 27, support line from Mar 15)

Support 2 : $1.3190 (Mar 23-26 low)

Support 3 : $1.3140 (Mar 19 and 22 lows)


 

11:04
ECB, Knot: “Little room for further monetary policy easing”

 

  • it's clear that current monetary policy is expansive;

  • worry about the amount of liquidity in the market;
  • inflation not the biggest risk at the moment;
  • future monetary policy depends on course of debt crisis;
  • focus of monetary policy must be price stability in EMU as a whole;
  • ECB nonstandard measures can only buy time;
  • ECB measures have eased market stress, not eliminated it;
  • Eurozone likely to slide back into recession.
11:04
ECB, Knot: “Little room for further monetary policy easing”

 

  • it's clear that current monetary policy is expansive;

  • worry about the amount of liquidity in the market;
  • inflation not the biggest risk at the moment;
  • future monetary policy depends on course of debt crisis;
  • focus of monetary policy must be price stability in EMU as a whole;
  • ECB nonstandard measures can only buy time;
  • ECB measures have eased market stress, not eliminated it;
  • Eurozone likely to slide back into recession.
10:53
EUR/JPY: sales continue pressing the rate to fresh lows

 

 

Strong demand seen into Y109.10/00, a break opens a deeper move towards Y108.80/75.


 

 

10:37
USD/CAD: sources reported stops in place at C$1.0010. Currently the pair is at C$1.0001.
10:10
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.3390, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y83.10, Y84.00

GBP/USD $1.5850

AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0425, $1.0485, $1.0525

EUR/AUDA$1.2770, A$1.2825

AUD/CHF Chf0.9400

AUD/JPY Y86.65

 

09:15
Asian session: The yen rose against all of its 16 major counterparts

 

  • 00:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence February 28 33.8


    The yen rose against all of its 16 major counterparts as Asian stocks extended a global slump in equities, boosting demand for haven assets. Japan’s currency extended gains against the dollar amid speculation the country’s companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on March 31. The yen also advanced after data showed Japanese retail sales rose more than forecast last month. Retail sales in Japan increased 3.5 percent in February from a year earlier, a third-straight monthly rise, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.4 percent gain.

    The euro was 0.3 percent from a one- month high after a draft statement from European finance ministers showed governments are preparing to increase rescue funds when they meet tomorrow.  A draft statement dated March 23 and obtained by Bloomberg News showed that European governments are preparing for a one-year increase in the ceiling on rescue aid to 940 billion euros ($1.25 trillion) to keep the debt crisis at bay.

    Australia’s dollar dropped against 15 of its 16 major peers amid concern Chinese manufacturing is losing momentum, curbing demand for the nation’s commodity exports. China is scheduled to release a purchasing managers index for manufacturing on April 1, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting a reading of 50.6 for March, compared with 51 in February. A flash reading for March of a separate private gauge came in at 48.1 when it was published on March 22, below the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction.


    EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3305-$1.3330.

    GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair restored after yesterday's falling.

    USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to a week’s low.


    UK Nationwide House Prices data is due at 0600GMT Thursday and are expected to post a rise of 0.2% m/m, 1.0% y/y. At 0810GMT, Bank of England Executive Director Markets Paul Fisher will speak at a National Asset Liability Management Conference. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and Q4 GDP data. At 1615GMT, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart participates in a panel discussion at The Commerce Club on the subject, "The European economic crisis and how it affects you," in Atlanta. At 1645GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the final of four lectures at the George Washington School of Business. Then at 1700GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speaks to the Rotary Club of Wilmington. Later US data includes the 1900GMT release of agriculture prices and 2030GMT release of money supply data.

08:51
Forex: Wednesday’s review

 

Yesterday the dollar gained against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers amid concern the rate of global growth is slowing spurred demand for the haven of the U.S. currency. The greenback strengthened after a report showed U.S. factory orders trailed forecasts and the United Kingdom revised first-quarter growth downward. Bookings for U.S. durable goods, meant to last at least three years, advanced 2.2 percent, less than projected, after a revised 3.6 percent decline the prior month, data from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 3 percent gain, according to the median forecast.

The 17-nation euro pared losses after a draft statement from European finance ministers showed governments are preparing to increase rescue funds. The euro was bolstered by a draft statement showing that European governments are preparing for a one-year increase in the ceiling on rescue aid to 940 billion euros ($1.3 trillion) to keep the debt crisis at bay. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said two days ago her country may back plans for the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechnismto run in parallel. Italian, Portuguese and Spanish 10- year government bonds rose.

The yen strengthened amid speculation Japanese companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on March 31.

Britain’s pound fell after a report showed the economy shrank more than first estimated in the fourth quarter, strengthening the case for the central bank to maintain asset purchases. U.K. gross domestic product dropped 0.3 percent from the previous three months, compared with an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent, data showed today. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said yesterday he has an open mind on whether more monetary stimulus, or quantitative easing, is needed.


EUR/USD: yesterday the pair decreased, fallen in the moment below $1.3300.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, closed day below $1.5900.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded in range Y82.60-Y83.20.


UK Nationwide House Prices data is due at 0600GMT Thursday and are expected to post a rise of 0.2% m/m, 1.0% y/y. At 0810GMT, Bank of England Executive Director Markets Paul Fisher will speak at a National Asset Liability Management Conference. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and Q4 GDP data. At 1615GMT, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart participates in a panel discussion at The Commerce Club on the subject, "The European economic crisis and how it affects you," in Atlanta. At 1645GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the final of four lectures at the George Washington School of Business. Then at 1700GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speaks to the Rotary Club of Wilmington. Later US data includes the 1900GMT release of agriculture prices and 2030GMT release of money supply data.

08:31
United Kingdom: Net Lending to Individuals, bln, February 1.2 (forecast 1.5)
08:30
United Kingdom: Mortgage Approvals, February 48 (forecast 59)
07:57
Germany: Unemployment Rate s.a. , March 6.7% (forecast 6.8%)
07:57
Germany: Unemployment Change, March -18 (forecast -10)
07:31
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y84.10/20 (area of Mar 15-21 highs)

Resistance 2: Y83.40 (Mar 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y82.95 (session high)

The current price: Y82.71

Support 1: Y82.55 (session low)

Support 2: Y82.30 (Mar 22 low)

Support 3: Y81.95 (Mar 23 low)


06:45
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19-22 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9135 (Mar 26 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9080 (Mar 28 high)

The current price: Chf0.9048

Support 1: Chf0.9015 (Mar 27-28 low)

Support 2: Chf0.8980 (138.2% FIBO Chf0.9335-Chf0.9075)

Support 3: Chf0.8930/35 (area of Feb 24-29 lows)


06:23
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3 : $1.6000 (Mar 27 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6965 (Mar 28 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5920 (Mar 21 high)

The current price: $1.5903

Support 1 : $1.5880 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5840 (Mar 28 low)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)


06:01
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index, y/y, March -0.9% (forecast +0.9%)
06:00
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index , March -1.0% (forecast +0.3%)
05:46
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.3415 (high of the American session on Feb 27)

Resistance 2 : $1.3375/85 (area of Mar 27-28 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.3330 (session high)

The current price: $1.3318

Support 1 : $1.3300 (support line from Mar 22)

Support 2 : $1.3275 (Mar 28 low)

Support 3 : $1.3230 (61.8% FIBO $1.3385-$1.3130)


05:22
Currencies. Daily history for Mar 28'2012:

 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3314 -0,04%

GBP/USD $1,5886 -0,38%

USD/CHF Chf0,9051 +0,02%

USD/JPY Y82,88 -0,37%

EUR/JPY Y110,35 -0,41%

GBP/JPY Y131,67 -0,74%

AUD/USD $1,0389 -0,62%

NZD/USD $0,8175 -0,33%

USD/CAD C$0,9985 +0,31%

05:02
Schedule for today, Thursday, Mar 29'2012:

 

00:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence February 28

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +0.9% +0.9%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change March 0 -10

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. March 6.8% 6.8%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln February 1.8 1.5

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals February 59 59

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index February +0.1% +0.4%

12:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m February +0.3% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 24/03/2012 348 351

12:30 U.S. GDP, y/y (finally) IV quarter +1.8% +3.0%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q IV quarter +1.3% +1.3%

16:15 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks 0

16:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks 0

20:00 Canada Annual Budget 2012

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m February +8.3% 0.0%

22:45 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks 0

23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence March -29 -29

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI March 50.5

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y February -2.3% -0.3%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate February 4.6% 4.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y March -0.2% -0.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y March -0.3% -0.3%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y February +0.1% 0.0%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y 0 -0.1% -0.1%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) February +1.9% +1.4%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) February -1.3% +3.7%

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