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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-01-2013.
The yen rose against most of the 16 most traded currencies, as many investors have suggested that the currency will stop its decline, which lasted for the past 11 weeks, which was the longest series of decline.
Japan's currency retreated from the minimum value against the dollar since 2010 as the technical indicators have indicated that the currency has declined too much.
The pound fell to its lowest level in more than 13 months against the euro, which was associated with the publication of data from Hometrack, which showed that house prices in England and Wales remained unchanged in December, after declining in the previous six months. Also exerted pressure on the currency earlier statement, which became known that the UK economy shrunk in the last quarter of 2012, more than expected, returned to recession.
The dollar rose against most major currencies, against the background of the fact that many market participants are waiting for the opening of a two-day meeting of the Fed, as well as a report on employment in non-agricultural sectors of the economy, which will be presented on February 1.
Note also that the support of the currency was a report presented by the Ministry of Commerce, which showed that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in December by 4.6% after increasing 0.7% in the previous month, although many experts forecast an increase of only 2%.
Pending home sales in the U.S. fell by much more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday.
NAR said its pending home sales index fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December from 106.3 in November. Economists had expected the index to edge down by 0.3 percent.
A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
The dollar turned around and started to win back losses against the yen, recovering briefly above Y91.00 mark in early U.S. session after a report on orders for durable goods in the U.S. was more than expected.
USD / JPY bounced from the daily low Y90.55 and strengthened over the last hours by more than 50 pips, noting recent session high at Y91.09. However, the pair failed to build on this growth, and it retreated to Y90.80, still -0.13% from its opening price.
Euro slightly weakened in tandem with the dollar after the release of the report, according to which, in December orders for durable goods in the U.S. exceeded analysts' estimates. Orders jumped by 4.6% against expectations of 1.8%, while the index excluding the transport sector increased by 1.3% vs. 0.7%.
After the release of EUR / USD dropped to 10 points in the $ 1.3430 area, but then showed strong growth and was able to improve the night and move it to a maximum of 6 pips to $ 1.3477.
With orders
for transportation equipment showing a substantial increase, the Commerce
Department released a report on Monday showing that orders for
The report
showed that durable goods orders surged up by 4.6 percent in December following
a 0.7 percent increase in November. Economists had been expecting orders to
increase by about 1.6 percent.
Excluding
an 11.9 percent jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods
orders increased by a more modest 1.3 percent in December compared to a 1.2
percent increase in November. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to
edge up by 0.4 percent.
EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500
USD/JPY Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50
GBP/USD $1.5820
EUR/CHF Chf1.2500
AUD/USD $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550
EUR/AUD A$1.2715
09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y December +3.8% +3.9% +3.3%
British pound down against the U.S. dollar and the euro on fears that the next governor of the Bank of England may seek to stimulate sluggish economic growth in the UK, allowing for a higher level of inflation. Players continue selling the pound on Friday after the release of data on the reduction of the UK's GDP in the last quarter of 2012. Because there is a risk of entry of the UK economy in the third since 2008 recession, Governor of the Bank of Canada statement Mark Carney complicated problem pound in light of its transition to the Bank of England in July.
The euro was down against the U.S. dollar after data pointed to the decline in credit to the private sector and, in particular, the low volume of corporate loans. Credit to the private sector banks, the euro zone in December fell by 0.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, after declining by 0.8% in November. The volume of non-financial institutions lending in December fell by 51 billion euros (68.7 billion U.S. dollars), compared with the previous month, after declining by 7 billion euros in November. Lending to households also slowed down, decreasing by EUR 2 billion, after rising by 6 billion euros in November.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.3424
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.5703 - its weakest level since August 21
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new low Y90.56
U.S. 13:30 GMT publish the change in orders for durable goods, including excluding transportation equipment for December at 15:00 GMT - the change in volume of outstanding home sales for December. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will present the trade balance (for 12 months, from the beginning of the year), trade balance for December. At 23:00 GMT Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3550, $1.3530, $1.3510/15, $1.3495/500, $1.3480/85, $1.3470,
Bids $1.3420, $1.3405/00, $1.3380/70, $1.3350
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5900/10, $1.5870/80, $1.5850/55, $1.5830
Bids $1.5705/00, $1.5690, $1.5675/70, $1.5650/30, $1.5610/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0520/25, $1.0500/10, $1.0480/85, $1.0450
Bids $1.0390, $1.0350, $1.0330, $1.0310/00, $1.0285/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y123.30/50, Y123.00, Y122.60/80
Bids Y121.60/50, Y121.00, Y120.75/65, Y120.50, Y120.15/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y92.10/20, Y92.00, Y91.80/85, Y91.40/50, Y91.30
Bids Y90.50, Y90.30/20, Y90.00, Y89.85/80
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8600, stg0.8575/80
Bids stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8465/60, stg0.8450, stg0.8415/00
Growth in Eurozone's broad money aggregate or M3 slowed to 3.3 percent in December from 3.8 percent in November, data from the European Central Bank showed Monday.
Economists expected the rate of growth to accelerate to 3.9 percent. M1 or narrow money supply increased 6.2 percent in December compared to a year earlier.
Credit extended to the private sector fell 0.8 percent year-on-year last month. Loans to households rose 0.5 percent, and lending for house purchase increased 1.3 percent.
Like the
EUR / USD, GBP / USD fell before the opening of the European session amid risk
aversion, the dregs of the pair to the lowest level since August 21 at $
1.5714. Now the price has recovered slightly, but still traded intraday
decrease (-0.40%).
Sold E1.5bln vs target E2.0-E2.75bln
Sold E2.628bln 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei; avg yield 1.8% (2.46%), cover 1.38 (1.75)
Sold E4.0bln vs target E3.0bln-E4.0bln
Sold E4.0bln of Dec 2014 CTZ; avg yield 1.434% (1.884%), cover 1.45 (1.69)EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500
USD/JPY Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50
GBP/USD $1.5820
EUR/CHF Chf1.2500
AUD/USD $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550
EUR/AUD A$1.2715The euro rose to its strongest level against the dollar in 11 months as the European Central Bank said banks will hand back a greater amount of three-year loans than analysts estimated, boosting short-term borrowing costs.
The shared currency gained for a seventh week against the yen as the ECB said 278 banks will repay 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion) next week, versus an 84 billion-euro forecast in a survey. The yen headed for a record weekly losing streak versus the dollar as Japan’s consumer prices fell. The two-year interest-rate swap spread between the euro and dollar, a key lending rate, increased to the widest in six months.
The yen fell as the government said consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in December from a year earlier. The central bank announced open-ended asset purchases and a 2 percent inflation target this week. The yen pared losses after government data showed purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in December, damping demand for riskier assets. The purchases slid 7.3 percent to a 369,000 annual pace, versus a survey forecast of 385,000.
Pound weakened for a second day against the euro, falling to 13-month low after a report showed that the UK economy shrunk in the fourth quarter than analysts had forecast. Sterling fell to the lowest level in five months against the dollar, as the reduction in the UK has put on the brink of an unprecedented triple recession. According to the report, the gross domestic product declined in the fourth quarter by 0.3%, changing the increase of 0.9% in the third quarter, which was mainly due to increased activity during the Olympics. Note that the projected decline economists should have been 0.1%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2011, GDP was unchanged, as it was in the third quarter, although the experts forecast an increase of 0.2%.
The Canadian dollar fell against the dollar after Canada's annual inflation rate in December was 0.8%, which is a three-year low. Economists say that in the context of this low probability statistics interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada remains very low. Note that, according to the experts, the rate of inflation would grow to the level of 1.2%.23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y December -0.5% -0.4%
The dollar reached its highest level in 2 1/2 years versus the yen before data forecast to show a pickup in U.S. durable goods orders, adding to signs of a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. Demand for U.S. goods such as machinery and electronics probably rose 2 percent last month after a 0.8 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department publishes the data today. If confirmed, that would be the biggest advance since September.
The greenback strengthened against most of its 16 major counterparts before Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day policy meeting tomorrow.
Declines in the yen were tempered after investors decreased bearish bets and as technical indicators signaled the Japanese currency’s recent drop may have been too rapid. The yen’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 29.1, below the 30 level that some traders see as a signal an asset has fallen too far, too fast and may be due to reverse course. Against the euro, it was at 28.2.
Japan’s Economy Minister Akira Amari denied his government is actively targeting a weaker yen, saying it’s aimed at defeating deflation. Japan is “absolutely not deviating from global standards,” Amari told the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3450-70.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5750.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y90.85-25.
For today, the first data release is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the EMU December M3 money supply numbers. Also at 0900GMT, the Italian January ISTAT consumer confidence survey will cross the wires. There are few scheduled central bank speakers, but at 0930GMT, Financial Stability Board Chairman Mark Carney is set to give a press briefing, in Zurich.
The US calendar starts at 1300GMT, with the release of the December Building Permits Revision. At 1330GMT, the December Durable Goods Orders are released. At 1430GMT, the MNI Capital Goods Index for the January 25 week will be released, followed at 1500GMT by the release of the December NAR Pending Home Sales. At 1530GMT, the MNI Retail Trade Index for the Jan 26 week will cross the wires. The last data release scheduled for Monday is the January Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, also expected at 1530GMT.09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y December +3.8% +3.9%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders December +0.7% +1.8%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation December +1.6% +0.8% 13:30
13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense December +0.8%
15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) December +1.7% +0.5%
15:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance December -0.700 -0.106
23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index November +0.2%
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