CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-03-2013

The dollar gained versus major curencies  as U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast last month, boosting optimism the economy is withstanding higher taxes and lower government spending.

The U.S. currency rose after the Labor Department reported the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a four-year low of 7.7% and employment rose 236,000 last month after a revised 119,000 gain in January. The median forecast of economists projected an advance of 158,000. The jobless rate dropped from 7.9%.

Federal Reserve policy makers at their last meeting debated curtailing bond-buying that is seen as debasing the dollar, a move Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has opposed as he seeks to drive down unemployment to 6.5%.

BNP points out "median duration of unemployment increased to 17.8 months from 16.0 months in January.

European stocks climbed to the highest level in more than 4 1/2 years as U.S. payrolls rose more than forecast, sending the jobless rate in the world’s biggest economy to a four-year low.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.8 percent to 295.38, the highest level since June 2008.

U.S. payrolls increased more than forecast in February, a Labor Department report showed. An additional 236,000 workers were hired last month, exceeding the 165,000 median forecast of economists. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,483.58 +44.42 +0.69% CAC 40 3,840.15 +46.37 +1.22% DAX 7,986.47 +46.70 +0.59%

Fugro (FUR) jumped 15 percent to 43.03 euros, the most since March 2009, after reporting full-year net income of 292 million euros ($382 million), beating the average analyst estimate of 282 million euros.

Lagardere added 5 percent to 28.86 euros after France’s largest publisher posted 2012 net income of 89 million euros, compared with a loss of 707 million euros a year earlier.

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) advanced 3.9 percent to 25.98 Swiss francs after UBS AG raised its recommendation on Switzerland’s second-biggest bank shares to buy from neutral, citing its “solid” capital ratios and dividend outlook.

DNB ASA climbed 4.5 percent to 92.50 kroner, its highest price since at least 1992, after Norway’s largest bank said it will raise lending rates by as much as 0.3 percent because of stricter government regulation.

Clariant slipped 35 centimes to 14.32 francs after Nomura lowered its recommendation on the shares to reduce from buy.

Prices of oil futures fell today, while leaving out below $ 110 per barrel, which was due to pressure from a stronger dollar, which rose sharply after positive data from the U.S., as well as higher-than-expected supply from the North Sea and OPEC .

Experts note that the employment report showed strong growth, which seems to be quite a good factor for further stock market rally and the dollar, but it appalling that a stronger dollar will limit the rise in crude oil prices.

Note that in the past two weeks, many investors have liquidated most of their long positions in commodities, but increased their market share of securities holdings. We also add that this World shares reached their highest level since June 2008.

In addition, we add that the price of oil rose in the first three weeks of the year on expectations of recovery of global economic growth, but began to show a decline in recent weeks because of fears that central banks will curtail their mitigation measures.

Note also that the oil market was not able to get support even among relatively positive data from China, which showed year on year exports rose in February by 21.8 percent, far exceeding economists' forecasts while at 8.1 percent growth. However, this increase has been less than a 25 percent increase in January. On the other hand, the volume of imports has decreased during the past month, more than expected, registering decline of 15.2 percent year on year. With all these data, it was reported that the trade surplus in February was $ 15.25 billion, contrary to expectations for a deficit of 6.9 billion dollars.

April futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 91.13 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

April futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix down 96 cents to $ 109.90 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The price of gold rose sharply, recovering from the minimum values, and setting all the new session high at $ 1583. However, the pressure of buyers was not enough to continue the upward movement, which caused the reduction of prices below the levels of the opening of trading today. Note that this trend was due to the publication of important data on the U.S.. According to the report, U.S. Department of Labor, the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy in the past month increased by 236 thousand people, compared with a revised downward from the previous month's level of 119 thousand (originally reported 157 thousand), and the average Experts forecast at around 158 thousand also present report showed that following February private companies added 246,000 jobs, while manufacturers have increased the number of jobs at 14,000. The Labour Department also reported that the unemployment rate fell to 0.2%, down to the level with 7.7%, and showed the lowest value since the end of 2008.

Economists note that these data have an increased appetite for riskier assets, and raised speculation as to whether the Fed may revise the terms of its ultrasoft monetary policy.

Also today, it was reported that gold in the SPDR Gold Trust, which is the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, fell on Thursday to 1.805 tonnes, while reaching a 16-month low.

April futures price of gold on the COMEX declined and now stands at 1574.80

EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3075, $1.3100, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y93.75, Y94.00, Y95.00

EUR/JPY Y121.00

GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100

USD/CHF Chf0.9400, Chf0.9570

EUR/CHF 1.2300, Chf1.2400

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0205, $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0300

NZD/USD $0.8355

USD/CAD C$1.0300

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3195/100, $1.3160/65, $1.3140/50

Bids $1.3080, $1.3050, $1.2965/60, $1.2950

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5200, $1.5140/50, $1.5100/10, $1.5050/60

Bids $1.4965/60, $1.4950, $1.4935/30, $1.4900

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0375/80, $1.0340/50, $1.0330

Bids $1.0220, $1.0210/00, $1.0160/50, $1.0120/15, $1.0100/070, $1.0050, $1.0020, $1.0000

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8800, stg0.8750/60

Bids stg0.8700, stg0.8650, stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y125.90/6.00, Y125.70/80

Bids Y123.85/75, Y123.40-20, Y122.60/50

USD/JPY

Offers Y96.80, Y96.50, Y96.00, Y95.75/80

Bids Y94.50/40, Y94.15/00, Y93.75/70, Y93.55/50

EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3075, $1.3100, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y93.75, Y94.00, Y95.00

EUR/JPY Y121.00

GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100

USD/CHF Chf0.9400, Chf0.9570

EUR/CHF 1.2300, Chf1.2400

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0205, $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0300

NZD/USD $0.8355

USD/CAD C$1.0300

Asian stocks gained, with the regional benchmark index poised for to rise for a third week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average erased losses from before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as the country’s economy returned to growth, jobless claims in the U.S. dropped and China’s exports beat estimates.

Nikkei 225 12,283.62 +315.54 +2.64%

Hang Seng 23,091.95 +320.51 +1.41%

S&P/ASX 200 5,123.44 +14.24 +0.28%

Shanghai Composite 2,318.61 -5.68 -0.24%

Honda Motor Co., which gets 44 percent of its car sales from North America, climbed 2.5 percent in Tokyo.

Sekisui House Ltd. jumped 16 percent after the Japanese homebuilder’s operating profit forecast beat estimates.

Rio Tinto Group gained 1.8 percent in Sydney after the world’s second-biggest mining company reopened its coal mine in Mozambique and metal prices rose.

Asian shares dropped, with the regional benchmark index snapping two days of gains, led by Samsung Electronics Co. and Australian banks. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average pared gains after the Bank of Japan rejected a call for an immediate start to open-ended asset purchases.

Nikkei 225 11,968.08 +35.81 +0.30%

Hang Seng 22,771.44 -6.40 -0.03%

S&P/ASX 200 5,109.2 -7.59 -0.15%

Shanghai Composite 2,324.29 -22.89 -0.98%

Samsung, which yesterday announced it will invest 10.4 billion yen ($111 million) in troubled Japanese electronics maker Sharp Corp., fell 2.6 percent in Seoul.

Sharp tumbled 7.9 percent.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Australia’s No. 3 lender by market value, slid 0.8 percent after announcing plans to cut jobs and as the nation reported a bigger-than- expected trade deficit.

Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-biggest automaker by market value, pared gains to 0.6 percent in Tokyo.

Most European stocks advanced as the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy is growing and the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their benchmark interest rates on hold.

The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75 percent today, as forecast by 56 of 61 economists in a survey. The central bank predicted the euro-area economy will shrink 0.5 percent this year, more than the 0.3 percent contraction it forecast three months ago.

The Bank of England also left its key rate unchanged, along with its four-year-old bond-purchase program. The Monetary Policy Committee maintained its target for quantitative easing at 375 billion pounds ($564 billion), as forecast by 29 of 39 economists in a survey. The remainder had predicted an expansion of at least 25 billion pounds.

National benchmark indexes gained in 13 of the 18 western- European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.2 percent and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.5 percent. Germany’s DAX increased 0.3 percent.

Aggreko surged 10 percent to 1,939 pence, its biggest gain since October 2008, as the company forecast “double digit” average revenue growth over the next five years.

Carrefour climbed 2.9 percent to 22 euros, its highest price since July 2011. Annual recurring operating income fell 2.6 percent to 2.14 billion euros ($2.8 billion), beating the 2.07 billion-euro average analyst estimate.

Adidas AG climbed 6.6 percent to 76.38 euros, the highest price since the shares started trading in November 1995. The world’s second-largest sporting-goods maker forecast higher sales and profit this year and raised its dividend by 35 percent as it targets fast-growing emerging markets.

Aviva plummeted 13 percent to 314.8 pence, its biggest drop since March 2009. The U.K.’s second-largest insurer by market value said it won’t pay bonuses to its executive directors or award pay rises for 2013 after cutting its second-half dividend by 44 percent. The company will pay a final dividend of 9 pence a share for 2012, down from 16 pence in the previous year.

Davide Campari-Milano SpA slipped 2.7 percent to 5.88 euros. The maker of Skyy vodka reported an unexpected drop in annual profit amid declining sales in Italy and Brazil and said this year will also be “challenging.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record high as the number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits fell to a six-week low, showing further improvement in the labor market.

First-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 7,000 to 340,000 in the week ended March 2, the lowest since the period ended Jan. 19, according to data today from the Labor Department in Washington.

A Labor Department report tomorrow may show nonfarm payrolls rose by 163,000 last month, while the unemployment rate held at 7.9 percent, according to economists.

The trade deficit in the U.S. widened more than forecast in January as demand for imported crude oil rebounded. The gap grew by 16.5 percent to $44.4 billion from $38.1 billion in December that was the smallest in three years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.

The Dow extended a record high yesterday as a private report showed companies hired more workers than estimated and the Federal Reserve said the economy is growing. The S&P 500 has reached its highest level since October 2007, just 1.3 percent below a record as the bull market enters its fifth year. The benchmark index has surged 128 percent from a 12-year low in 2009 as companies reported better-than-estimated earnings and the Fed embarked on three rounds of bond purchases to stimulate the economy.

Bank of America (ВАС), the second-largest U.S. lender, added 2.4 percent to $12.21.

Ciena surged 16 percent to $17.37. The maker of fiber-optic networking equipment reported first-quarter profit of 12 cents a share, compared with a 14-cent loss estimated by analysts on average. Revenue in the period also beat projections. Rival JDS Uniphase added 7.5 percent to $15.22.

Boeing Co. (ВА) jumped 3 percent to $81.48, its highest intraday level since June 2008. Emirates, the largest operator of Boeing’s 777 aircraft, said the U.S. manufacturer is getting closer to offering a new version that will seek to defend its lead against Airbus SAS in the wide-body market.

Apache Corp. advanced 3.3 percent to $75.96 as the fourth- largest U.S. independent oil and gas producer by market value may begin a process to sell deep-water assets in the Gulf of Mexico as early as next week, a person familiar with the matter said.

At the close:

DJIA 14,329.50 +33.25 0.23%

S&P 500 1,544.26 +2.80 0.18%

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln February 29.2 -8.8 15.3

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report March

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current February 49.5 51.2 53.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook February 56.5 57.7

The dollar advanced to the highest level in 3 1/2 years versus the yen on speculation an improving labor market will compel the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus even as Japan pledges to extend easing policies.

Demand for the dollar increased before a report that may show U.S. employers added more jobs in February. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey estimate the Labor Department will say today that U.S. payrolls expanded by 165,000 in February after a 157,000 gain the prior month, while the jobless rate likely held at 7.9 percent.

Europe’s common currency held gains against the dollar from yesterday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stuck to his view that the region will gradually recover later this year.

The yen is set to decline this week against its 16 major peers as data showed Japan had a current account deficit for a third-straight month. In Japan, Ministry of Finance data today showed the deficit in the current account, the widest measure of trade, was 364.8 billion yen ($3.8 billion) in January, compared with the median economist estimate of a 611.5 billion yen gap.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell after a report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in imports for China, the South Pacific nations’ biggest trading partner. China’s customs administration said today imports fell 15.2 percent in February from a year earlier, after a 28.8 percent increase in January. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 8.5 percent decline in imports.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell slightly to $1.3085.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.4980.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y95.85.

Change % Change Last

Oil $91.56 +1.13 +1.20%

Gold $1,575.10 +0.20 +0.01%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,968.08 +35.81 +0.30%

Hang Seng 22,771.44 -6.40 -0.03%

S&P/ASX 200 5,109.2 -7.59 -0.15%

Shanghai Composite 2,324.29 -22.89 -0.98%

CAC 40 3,793.78 +20.02 +0.53%

DAX 7,939.77 +20.44 +0.26%

DJIA 14,329.50 +33.25 0.23%

S&P 500 1,544.26 +2.80 0.18%

NASDAQ 3,232.09 +9.72 0.30%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3106 +1,07%

GBP/USD $1,5012 -0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,9425 -0,66%

USD/JPY Y94,81 +0,80%

EUR/JPY Y124,27 +1,86%

GBP/JPY Y142,34 +0,78%

AUD/USD $1,0266 +0,33%

NZD/USD $0,8282 0,00%

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln February 29.2 -8.8

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report March

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current February 49.5 51.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook February 56.5

08:00 China New Loans February 1070 750

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) February -0.3% -0.3%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) February -0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter I +3.5%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January +0.3% +0.6%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) January -1.1% -1.2%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts February 161 173

13:30 U.S. Average workweek February 34.4 34.4

13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter IV -0.5% -0.1%

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings February +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate February 7.0% 7.0%

13:30 Canada Employment February -21.9 7.8

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate February 7.9% 7.9%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls February 157 158

15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories January -0.1% +0.4%