CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-03-2013

The dollar is trading with little change against the yen, while being close to the maximum values ​​in August 2009, as signs that the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, increased demand for the U.S. currency.

The dollar index (DXY) is trading near the highest level in seven months, as many market participants are awaiting a report on retail sales in the U.S., which is expected to show improvement following February. Also, the attention of traders this week will be focused on data on consumer prices, which are likely to show an increase.

The euro rose against the dollar, after playing with a portion of the losses suffered on Friday. Note that the dynamics of bidding auction results influenced the U.S.. As it became known, the Treasury sold 3-month and 6-month U.S. government bonds, the average yield has declined from 0.11% to 0.095% and from 0.12% to 0.115%, respectively.

The yen traded near a three-week low against the euro after the release of negative statistics from Japan. It is learned that orders for industrial equipment in the country fell by 13% in January in monthly terms, which was the strongest decline in eight months. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.7%. In addition, the monthly results can have a strong influence major equipment orders. In the IV quarter of last year, Japan returned to growth by reducing the yen and the efforts of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to fight deflation and recession in the country.

Additional pressure on the yen have word candidate to head the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, who considers it necessary to pursue a more aggressive monetary policy. According to him, the main objective should be to achieve the inflation rate of 2%

The Canadian dollar was up against most of the most traded currencies, after a report submitted on Friday by the U.S. showed that the number of employees rose much more than expected, prompting speculation that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

European stocks fell from a 4 1/2- year high as Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy and China’s retail sales and industrial output missed forecasts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 295.26 at 4:33 p.m. in London. The gauge has still surged 5.6 percent this year as U.S. lawmakers agreed on a compromise budget and optimism grew that central banks around the world will continue stimulus measures to support the economic recovery.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,503.63 +20.05 +0.31% CAC 40 3,836.27 -3.88 -0.10% DAX 7,984.29 -2.18 -0.03%

Fitch cut Italy’s credit rating by one level after the close of equity markets on March 8, as last month’s election produced political paralysis that threatens the country’s ability to respond to a recession and the European debt crisis. The rating company lowered Italy’s government bond rating to BBB+ from A- with a negative outlook. That’s three levels above junk and one higher than Spain.

Storebrand (STB) slid 1.78 kroner to 25.23 kroner as stricter pension rules will require the insurer to set aside as much as 11.5 billion kroner ($2 billion). Life insurance providers in Norway must boost premiums and reserves to meet an increase in life expectancy, the Financial Supervisory Authority said on March 8.

OMV, central Europe’s biggest oil company, declined 1.7 percent to 34.50 euros in Vienna as SocGen downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Sage Group Plc slipped 2.5 percent to 340.8 pence as Bank of America Corp. downgraded the shares to underperform, the equivalent of a sell rating, from neutral and added the software maker to its least preferred technology stocks.

Atlantia SpA (ATL) fell 3.7 percent to 12.27 euros and Gemina SpA tumbled 6.4 percent to 1.29 euros. Italy’s largest toll-highway operator will pay one share for every nine shares of Gemina, which runs Rome’s airports, in a takeover deal that involves no cash, according to a statement released after the close of trading on March 8.

Ladbrokes surged 6.7 percent to 240.2 pence, the biggest jump since April 2011, after the U.K. operator of more than 2,000 betting shops said Playtech will help develop and expand its digital business. Playtech rose 3.5 percent to 571 pence.

Nordex SE soared 15 percent to 4.44 euros, it’s biggest rally in almost two years. The German wind-turbine maker reported earnings before interest and taxes of 14 million euros ($18.2 million), compared with the 10.5 million-euro average analyst estimate.

Oil prices fell today, helped by the data provided by China. Meanwhile, we note that the dynamics of trade affected the information that oil production in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of "black gold" has increased in February to 9.15 million barrels a day, or 100,000 barrels more than the value of the previous month. It should also be noted that the increase in oil production was recorded after reaching a record low in January, starting in May 2011.

Note that the report submitted by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the inflation rate in China has increased significantly in February, while still achieving a ten-month high, while other indicators have worsened, signaling a slowdown in recovery is the second largest economy in the report mire.Soglasno , consumer price inflation rose last month to 3.2 percent, compared with 2 percent in January. Note that such a sharp increase was slightly more than the average forecast of economists at 3 percent. In addition, we add that this was the highest level since April last year. In addition, other reports showed that house prices rose by 2.8 per cent per annum, which has been associated with the introduction of new government measures, which were aimed at reducing the cost of housing and avoid "bubble" in the market. Also note that the producer prices continued to fall in February, against which the producer price index fell by 1.6 percent year on year.

Note that other factors that were submitted by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the pace of economic recovery, which started in October last year, a little slow at the beginning of 2013. As it became known, the volume of industrial production increased by 9.9 percent in the first two months of 2013, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent over the previous two months.

April futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 91.13 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

April futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 37 cents to $ 110.09 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Price of gold futures rose slightly, rising above the level at the same time opening day, but, nevertheless, continues to trade in the range of $ 1575-1583, as many traders continue to assess the strengths Friday's employment data in the U.S., which greatly influenced the dynamics of Friday's trading. Recall that the data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy in the past month increased by 236 thousand people, compared with a revised downward from the previous month's level of 119 thousand (originally reported 157 thousand ) and the average forecast of experts at around 158 thousand also report showed that following February private companies added 246,000 jobs, while manufacturers have increased the number of jobs at 14,000. The Labour Department also reported that the unemployment rate fell to 0.2%, down to the level with 7.7%, and showed the lowest value since the end of 2008.

Meanwhile, we note that the official data from China, which were published over the weekend showed that the following February, consumer prices rose by 3.2%, which was higher than expected at 3%, and more than the increase in the 2% in January. In addition, a separate report showed that industrial production rose last month by 9.9%, which was lower than the forecast of 10.5% and an increase of 10.3% in the previous month.

Persistent concerns about the deteriorating economic situation in Italy has also remained in the spotlight after Friday, Fitch Ratings cut Italy's sovereign credit rating to BBB + from A to B, citing the inconclusive results of the parliamentary elections last month and a deeper recession .

In connection with the situation, analysts say that the price of gold is likely to find support at $ 1, 554.80 a troy ounce, which is a minimum of 21 February, and resistance at $ 1, 602.20 (maximum of 28 February) .

April futures price of gold on COMEX has increased, and now stands at 1579.10 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y94.80, Y95.50, Y95.80, Y96.00, Y96.50, Y97.00

EUR/JPY Y124.70

GBP/USD $1.4925, $1.5020

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0195, $1.0225, $1.0245, $1.0270

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2400

07:00 Germany Current Account January 20.2 10.5 11.3

07:00 Germany Trade Balance January 16.9 17.9 15.7

07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m January -0.1% -0.1% -1.2%

07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y January -2.1% -2.7% -3.5%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y January +4.7% +3.7% +1.9%

The euro fell against the dollar amid risk aversion, which was caused by news that Fitch downgraded Italy's sovereign rating to the level of BBB + with a negative outlook, which increased political uncertainty. In addition, in the 4th quarter of Italy's economy shrank by 0.9% q / q in line with expectations, while the annual rate was 2.8% against expectations of 2.7% from a revised -2.7 % to 2.8% the previous value.

Also, the negative sentiment in the market have increased after the release of statistics from Germany and France. In Germany, the trade surplus narrowed by € 16.9 billion to € 15.7 billion, while imports (+3.3% vs. +1.0%) grew stronger exports (+1.4% vs. +0.3%. Industrial production in France fell by 1.2 % vs. +0.1%.

The situation is exacerbated concerns about the U.S. budget and trade-offs between the two parties.

Yen against the euro traded near three-week low after the release of negative statistics from Japan. Orders for industrial equipment in the country fell by 13% in January in monthly terms, which was the strongest decline in eight months. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.7%. In addition, the monthly results can have a strong influence major equipment orders. In the IV quarter of last year, Japan returned to growth by reducing the yen and the efforts of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to fight deflation and recession in the country.

Additional pressure on the yen have word candidate to head the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, who considers it necessary to pursue a more aggressive monetary policy. According to him, the main objective should be to achieve the inflation rate of 2%. "We are in a situation where we can not lower interest rates more.'s Why we have direct effect on market expectations," - said Kuroda.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.2991.

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a 32-month low of $ 1.4864.

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range of Y95.98 - Y96.08.

At 23:50 GMT, Japan will provide BSI index of business conditions for large manufacturers and business conditions index (BSI) for large enterprises in all sectors of the 1st quarter. Also during this time will be published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy and the index of activity in the service in January.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3090/100, $1.3060/65, $1.3050, $1.3025/30

Bids $1.2980, $1.2955/50, $1.2935/25, $1.2900, $1.2880, $1.2865-50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5100/10, $1.5050/60, $1.5000/10, $1.4980/85, $1.4950/65, $1.4900/10

Bids $1.4855/50, $1.4830/20, $1.4800

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0375/80, $1.0340/50, $1.0330, $1.0300/10, $1.0250/60

Bids $1.0200, $1.0170/60, $1.0150, $1.0120/15, $1.0100-070, $1.0050

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8800, stg0.8750/60

Bids stg0.8650, stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y125.60

Bids Y124.10, Y123.85/75, Y123.40-20, Y122.60/50

USD/JPY

Offers Y97.00, Y96.80, Y96.70, Y96.25/40

Bids Y95.50/40, Y95.25/20, Y94.80, Y94.50/40, Y94.15/00

Downgrade:
Apple (AAPL) was downgraded to Buy form Outperform at Credit Agricole

Other:
Google (GOOG) target was rised to $980 from $820 at Pacific Crest  

Swiss retail sales growth eased sharply in January, the latest figures published by the Federal Statistical Office revealed Monday.

Retail sales increased 1.9 percent year-on-year in real terms in January, much slower than a 4.7 percent gain in December. Excluding fuel, sales were up 1.9 percent.

Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in real turnover of 1.4 percent while the non-food sector registered a growth of 1.7 percent.

In January, seasonally adjusted turnover in the retail sector fell 0.5 percent compared with the previous month. Excluding fuel, the retail sector showed a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percent in sales.

European stocks fell from a 4 1/2- year high as Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy and China’s retail sales and industrial output missed forecasts. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares climbed.

Fitch cut Italy’s credit rating by one level after the close of equity markets on March 8, as last month’s election produced political paralysis that threatens the country’s ability to respond to a recession and the European debt crisis.

In China, retail sales increased 12.3 percent in the first two months of 2013 from a year earlier and industrial production rose 9.9 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Both numbers trailed economists’ estimates.

French industrial production fell in January as Europe’s second-largest economy teetered on the brink of its third recession in four years. Output dropped 1.2 percent from December, more than the 0.2 percent decline forecast by economists in a survey.

Storebrand slid 8.6 percent to 24.68 kroner as stricter pension rules will require the insurer to set aside as much as 11.5 billion kroner ($2 billion).

OMV, central Europe’s biggest oil company, declined 2.8 percent to 34.09 euros in Vienna as SocGen downgraded as the stock to hold from buy.

ICAP, the world’s largest broker of transactions between banks, lost 3.5 percent to 330.5 pence as UBS AG downgraded the shares to sell from neutral.

Nordex SE soared 13 percent to 4.35 euros, an 11-month high. The German wind-turbine maker reported earnings before interest and taxes of 14 million euros ($18.2 million), compared with the 10.5 million-euro average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey, and raised its sales outlook.

FTSE 100 6,483.04 -0.54 -0.01%

CAC 40 3,821.7 -18.45 -0.48%

DAX 7,956.52 -29.95 -0.38%

Germany sold E3.24bln 6-month Bubill at average yield 0.0103% (0.0203%), cover 2.0 (1.9) and E0.76bln or 19% held for secondary market operations vs 15% previously.

France's industrial production declined more than expected in January, the latest figures from statistical office Insee showed Monday.

Production fell 3.5 percent year-on-year in January, compared to expectations for a 2.8 percent decline. Also, the rate of fall was steeper than the 1.9 percent decrease in the previous month.

Manufacturing output dropped 4.5 percent year-on-year, faster than the 3.1 percent decrease in the previous month.

Month-on-month, total industrial production declined 1.2 percent following a 0.9 percent gain in December. Economists expected a 0.2 percent fall.

Manufacturing output decreased 1.4 percent, faster than the expected 0.2 percent decrease. In January, factory output was up 1.3 percent.

Germany's exports grew at the fastest pace since August 2012 and imports recovered strongly in January, boosting hopes of recovery at the start of the year.

Shipments grew 1.4 percent in January from a month ago, when it rose 0.2 percent, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Monday. The increase in exports far exceeded the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists.

Likewise, imports advanced 3.3 percent, sharper than the 0.7 percent growth expected by economists. Moreover, the import performance reversed December's 1.5 percent drop. The import growth outpaced the export growth in January.

The trade surplus increased less than expected to EUR 13.7 billion in January from EUR 12.1 billion in the previous month. The surplus was expected at EUR 14.4 billion.

Trade with the euro area countries remained weak. Germany's exports to euro area rose only 0.4 percent annually, while exports to non-Eurozone countries advanced 5.5 percent. At the same time, imports from Eurozone increased 2.8 percent compared to the 8.7 percent jump in imports from non-Eurozone nations.

On a yearly basis, overall exports grew 3.1 percent after declining 6.9 percent in December. Similarly, imports rose 2.9 percent following a 7.5 percent drop in the previous month.

The current account surplus totaled EUR 11.3 billion compared to a EUR 20.2 billion surplus a month ago.

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y94.80, Y95.50, Y95.80, Y96.00, Y96.50, Y97.00

EUR/JPY Y124.70

GBP/USD $1.4925, $1.5020

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0195, $1.0225, $1.0245, $1.0270

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for the highest close since August 2011, after U.S. jobs data beat estimates and Japanese exporters gained on a weaker yen.

Nikkei 225 12,349.05 +65.43 +0.53%

Hang Seng 23,090.82 -1.13 0.00%

S&P/ASX 200 5,146.9 +23.46 +0.46%

Shanghai Composite 2,310.59 -8.02 -0.35%

Techtronic Industries Co., a maker of power tools that gets most of its sales in North America, gained 1.4 percent in Hong Kong.

Resona Holdings Inc. and Shinsei Bank Ltd. led gains among Japanese lenders on speculation they may follow Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc. with plans to repay public funds.

Agile Property Holdings Ltd., a Chinese developer, slid 2.2 percent in Hong Kong after Chinese economic reports missed estimates.

The dollar gained versus major curencies  as U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast last month, boosting optimism the economy is withstanding higher taxes and lower government spending. The U.S. currency rose after the Labor Department reported the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a four-year low of 7.7% and employment rose 236,000 last month after a revised 119,000 gain in January. The median forecast of economists projected an advance of 158,000. The jobless rate dropped from 7.9%.  Federal Reserve policy makers at their last meeting debated curtailing bond-buying that is seen as debasing the dollar, a move Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has opposed as he seeks to drive down unemployment to 6.5%.

Asian stocks gained, with the regional benchmark index poised for to rise for a third week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average erased losses from before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as the country’s economy returned to growth, jobless claims in the U.S. dropped and China’s exports beat estimates.

Nikkei 225 12,283.62 +315.54 +2.64%

Hang Seng 23,091.95 +320.51 +1.41%

S&P/ASX 200 5,123.44 +14.24 +0.28%

Shanghai Composite 2,318.61 -5.68 -0.24%

Honda Motor Co., which gets 44 percent of its car sales from North America, climbed 2.5 percent in Tokyo.

Sekisui House Ltd. jumped 16 percent after the Japanese homebuilder’s operating profit forecast beat estimates.

Rio Tinto Group gained 1.8 percent in Sydney after the world’s second-biggest mining company reopened its coal mine in Mozambique and metal prices rose.

European stocks climbed to the highest level in more than 4 1/2 years as U.S. payrolls rose more than forecast, sending the jobless rate in the world’s biggest economy to a four-year low.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.8 percent to 295.38, the highest level since June 2008.

U.S. payrolls increased more than forecast in February, a Labor Department report showed. An additional 236,000 workers were hired last month, exceeding the 165,000 median forecast of economists. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,483.58 +44.42 +0.69% CAC 40 3,840.15 +46.37 +1.22% DAX 7,986.47 +46.70 +0.59%

Fugro (FUR) jumped 15 percent to 43.03 euros, the most since March 2009, after reporting full-year net income of 292 million euros ($382 million), beating the average analyst estimate of 282 million euros.

Lagardere added 5 percent to 28.86 euros after France’s largest publisher posted 2012 net income of 89 million euros, compared with a loss of 707 million euros a year earlier.

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) advanced 3.9 percent to 25.98 Swiss francs after UBS AG raised its recommendation on Switzerland’s second-biggest bank shares to buy from neutral, citing its “solid” capital ratios and dividend outlook.

DNB ASA climbed 4.5 percent to 92.50 kroner, its highest price since at least 1992, after Norway’s largest bank said it will raise lending rates by as much as 0.3 percent because of stricter government regulation.

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y February -26.1% -21.5%

The dollar approached its highest level in 3 1/2 years versus the yen as signs of a strengthening recovery in the world’s biggest economy boosted demand for the U.S. currency.

The Dollar Index traded near its strongest in seven months on prospects data in two days will show a gain in retail sales, following reports last week that said the jobless rate dropped and payrolls increased. Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose 0.5 percent last month after a 0.1 percent gain in January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department releases the figures on March 13.

The yen was 0.8 percent from its lowest level in three weeks against the euro after Japan’s machine orders fell more than expected and Haruhiko Kuroda, the nominee for central bank governor, said current monetary easing efforts aren’t enough to beat deflation. Japan’s Cabinet Office said today machine orders fell 13.1 percent in January, exceeding the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for a 1.7 percent drop. Today’s report adds to evidence of a slowdown in Asia’s second-biggest economy. Kuroda, who currently serves as president of the Asian Development Bank, told Japanese lawmakers today the central bank should consider buying large amounts of longer-term debt to achieve its 2 percent inflation target as soon as possible. The yen won’t weaken forever amid expectations for monetary easing, he said.

In Europe, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict France’s statistics office will say today industrial production fell 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month.

Australia’s dollar fell after data showed industrial production in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner, had its slowest start to a year since 2009.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around $ 1.3000.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.4900-25.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y95.95-25.

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y February -26.1%

07:00 Germany Current Account January 17.3 10.5

07:00 Germany Trade Balance January 16.8 17.9

07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m January -0.1% -0.1%

07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y January -2.1% -2.7%

08:00 China New Loans February 1070 750

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y January +5.1% +3.7%

20:30 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m February -1.0%

23:50 Japan BSI Manufacturing Index Quarter I -10.3 -6.2

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes March