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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-08-2012
After the decline of the euro against the dollar in the first half of the day, the rate rose sharply, updating the maximum value of the day. Most likely this increase was caused by rumors that the People's Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirements for commercial banks. Such a move the authorities in China is quite logical, given the recent weak data on industrial production and inflation, as well as the deteriorating situation on international markets.
The yen rose against most major currencies as investors sought refuge after data showed that China's exports grew by 1% in July, compared with growth of 11.3% in June, prompting concern that global economic growth slows. Economists forecast that export growth of 8%.
The Australian dollar fell against most currencies on fears of a slowdown in China, which is an important trading partner for Australia. But despite this, during the session, the exchange rate could be restored almost to the level of opening day.
During the course of the day more than half of the Canadian dollar declined against the dollar, thus showing the first drop in six days. It is learned that the number of employed fell by 30,400 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose to 7.3%. But at the end of the session, the pair could be strengthened by upgrading with yesterday's low.Most European stocks fell, but despite this Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended the week in positive territory, showing with his tenth consecutive weekly gain. Such dynamics was due to the fact that the published Chinese data showed that the trade surplus fell more than expected, adding fears that the level of the global economy slows.
Shares of Bank of Ireland Plc fell 3.1% to 9.5 cents per euro. In the first half pretax loss widened to 1.26 billion euros from 556 million euros a year earlier. It was worse than forecast at 899 million euros.
ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) increased by 5.8% as Germany's largest steelmaker reported its first profit in the fourth quarter.
Stoxx 600 fell 0.1% to 269.88
National indexes fell in 14 out of 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,847.11 -4.40 -0.08% CAC 40 3,435.62 -21.09 -0.61% DAX 6,944.56 -20.43 -0.29%
Bankia SA shares fell 20% to 1.21 euros, after a 11-day rally.
Company Bunzl, which provides delivery services for food and medical companies lost 4.6%, while showing the biggest drop since August 8, after UBS AG recommended selling shares.
The cost of Hannover Re fell 2.3% to 48.38 euros. As it became known, the profit in the second quarter decreased by 13% due to unrealized losses on investments. Net profit fell to 144 million euros from 166.2 million euros a year earlier. This was lower than forecast by economists at the level of 170.5 million euros.
Metso Oyj (MEO1V) and Outotec Oyj (OTE1V) retreated 2.1% to 30.78 euros and 1.7% to 38.75 euros, respectively.
Shares Aspo Oyj (ASU1V) fell 0.2% to 5.99 euros. The company said that the annual operating profit will be significantly lower than in 2011.
Fugro NV (FUR), the world's largest deepwater appraiser, lost 2.9% to 50.82 euros. Net profit in the first half year amounted to 115 million euros, compared with expectations of 120 million euros.
Shares of Barclays Plc (BARC) rose 2.7% to 183.85 pence after it appointed former executive director of the Bank of England, David Walker as chairman.
The cost of oil futures fell after disappointing data on China and on the background of the revision of the International Energy Agency forecast on global demand for oil.
As shown by the data, China's trade surplus fell to $ 25.1 billion in July, compared with $ 31.7 billion in June. Predicted that the figure will be $ 35.2 billion.
Also, China, which is the second largest consumer of the world's oil, said the low level of crude oil imports for nine months.
Worse-than-expected data for China in fact, supported oil prices in the past, as traders hoped that the Chinese government will introduce a new set of stimulus measures to restore economic growth. Nevertheless, a steady stream of negative news, not only from China but the U.S. and Europe, has become so large that it affected the price of oil.
Also, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for 2012 world oil prices and growing demand to 0.8 million barrels a day from one million barrels per day.
In its monthly report published on Friday, data showed that demand was weaker than in the previous month, particularly in China, Russia and the Middle East.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX dropped to $ 92.77 a barrel.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture dropped to $ 112.58 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold futures traded lower in the first half of the session, but showed significant growth over the last couple of hours. Investors have increased their stocks of bullion to record levels amid speculation that central banks must do more to promote economic growth. During the day, gold prices rose by more than $ 20 per ounce.
Gold has received some support from the fact that the weak Chinese economic data reinforced the belief that China's central bank could expand the program of monetary stimulus in order to maintain economic growth. Such a policy could warm up the demand for gold, increasing the likelihood of inflation, which hit the value of paper money.
Separate reports showed that China's trade surplus fell, and the amount of new loans fell to their lowest level since September last year.
But traders still do not want revenge to make big bets on the actions of central banks.
The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank has repeatedly disappointed buyers of gold this year, not announcing the launch of new programs to stimulate the economy.
The volume of trading in gold was much lower than usual this week, as market participants retreated to the background of a relatively light economic releases.
Market participants are focusing on expectations of monetary policy on the eve of the annual economic summit of politicians in Wyoming at the end of this month and the Fed meeting in September.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today has grown to the level of 1624.1 dollars per ounce, and is now trading at around 1621.4 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7875
AUD/USD $1.0550
U.S. stock futures declined as worse-than-expected Chinese trade data intensified concern that the global economy is slowing.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,891.44 -87.16 -0.97%
Hang Seng 20,136.12 -133.35 -0.66%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.81 -5.29 -0.24%
FTSE 5,838.39 -13.12 -0.22%
CAC 3,422.55 -34.16 -0.99%
DAX 6,915.43 -49.56 -0.71%
Crude oil $92.23 -1,21%
Gold $1615.70 -0.28%
Cisco Systems (CSCO) was initiated with a Hold at Needham.
Data:
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) July -0.2% +0.4% +0.4%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) July +2.0% +1.7% +1.9%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -1.9% +0.4% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.2% +1.3% +1.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) July -2.3% -1.5% -2.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.4% +0.1% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) July +2.3% +2.0% +1.3%
The euro weakened as Germany’s economy ministry said the outlook for faster growth was fading amid the currency-bloc’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The prospect of global economic recovery is “fragile,” Germany’s economy ministry said in its report for August. The nation’s economy “moderately” expanded in the second-quarter compared with the first-quarter, it said.
The greenback strengthened as China’s export growth collapsed, boosting demand for the currencies as havens.
China’s exports rose 1% in July from a year earlier, following an 11.3% increase in June, the customs bureau said in Beijing. That compared with the median estimate of economists for an 8% gain.
EUR/USD: during European session, the pair remained under pressure and fell to $1.2260 area.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased, showing low at $ 1.5576. Later the pair restored to $1.5600 area.
USD/JPY: during European session, the pair approached the support in Y78, 35 area.
US data for Friday starts at 1230GMT with the July Import / Export Price Index. Later data sees the 1900GMT release of the Treasury Budget Statement where the Treasury is expected to post a $103.0 billion budget gap in July, compared with the $129.4 billion gap in July 2011.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2385, $1.2365, $1.2345/50, $1.2320/25, $1.2310
Bids $1.2260/40, $1.2210/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5660/65, $1.5630/35, $1.5620, $1.5610
Bids $1.5560, $1.5535/30
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635, $1.0620, $1.0610/15, $1.0600, $1.0575/80, $1.0555/60
Bids $1.0480/75, $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0370/65
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.25/30, Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.70
Bids Y78.30/25, Y78.20/10, Y78.00, Y77.90
EUR/JPY
Offers Y97.80, Y97.60, Y97.50, Y96.90/00
Bids Y96.00, Y95.80, Y95.50, Y95.25/20, Y95.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7965/70, stg0.7920
Bids stg0.7850, stg0.7835/30, stg0.7810/00
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7875
AUD/USD $1.0550
Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index trimming the biggest weekly advance since January, after companies including Li & Fung Ltd. posted lower profit and as China reported export growth slowed more than economists’ expectations. Outbound shipments increased 1 percent from a year earlier and imports rose 4.7 percent, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing. The trade surplus was $25.1 billion compared with $31.5 billion a year earlier. Export growth was below all 32 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Nikkei 225 8,891.44 -87.16 -0.97%
S&P/ASX 200 4,277.3 -30.97 -0.72%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.9 -5.21 -0.24%
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. fell 2.5 percent, leading Chinese creditors lower, after new loans last month came in less than analysts expected.
Li & Fung plunged by a record in Hong Kong as reduced spending by U.S. and European shoppers drove down core operating profit at the supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Trend Micro Inc. slumped 9.1 percent in Tokyo after earnings fell at the maker of anti-virus software.
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 31.7 35.1 25.1
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) June -3.4% -0.1% +0.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) June +6.0% -2.0% -1.5%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August
The euro headed for its first five- day drop in three weeks before data forecast to show the region’s economy shrank as its debt crisis remained unresolved. Gross domestic product in the euro area probably contracted 0.2 percent in the three months through June after being unchanged in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The European Union’s statistics office will report the figure on Aug. 14. French industrial production may have risen 0.1 percent in June from May, when it dropped 1.9 percent, a separate survey of economists showed before the data are released today.
Economists polled by the ECB reduced their 2013 growth projection to 0.6 percent from 1 percent, according to the central bank’s monthly bulletin released yesterday. The region’s economy is likely to shrink 0.3 percent this year. Growth has slowed as a sovereign-debt crisis prompted five of the trading bloc’s 17 states to seek international bailouts.
The dollar and yen rose against their major counterparts as signs of slowing growth in China sent shares lower, boosting demand for refuge currencies. China’s overseas sales increased 1 percent in July from a year earlier, following an 11.3 percent increase in June, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing. That compared with the median estimate of economists for an 8 percent gain.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.2300.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5615 (MA (200) H1).
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range Y78.45-Y78.65.
European data sees the final German HICP data for July. France data at 0645GMT sees industrial output for June, which is expected to come in at -0.1% m/m, -1.8% y/y. The IEA monthly oil market report is due at 0800GMT. UK data at 0830GMT includes PPI as well as Q2
Construction Output data. US data for Friday starts at 1230GMT with the July Import / Export Price Index. Later data sees the 1900GMT release of the Treasury Budget Statement where the Treasury is expected to post a $103.0 billion budget gap in July, compared with the $129.4 billion gap in July 2011. US C&I loans data rounds things off, at 2015GMT.
During the day, the dollar rose against the euro and yen, as it was reported that the central banks of the stimulus package set aside for the future. Also, it became known, the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level in more than a month, while attracting investors.
The euro fell against most major currencies as the European Central Bank economists have cut growth forecast for the region in 2013 to 0.6% from 1%.
Pound throughout the day showed a stable decline, as the published data showed that the trade surplus in June fell more than expected.
The yen traded erratically against the dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from increasing incentives. Bank of Japan kept its fund asset purchases of $ 45 trillion yen and lending funds to 25 trillion yen bag are his work. But the Japanese yen lost won against the dollar position after data showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected, as falling oil prices helped reduce the import of the state. The deficit was reduced by 11% in June to $ 42.9 billion, which was the lowest figure since December 2010.
New Zealand dollar fell after a report showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.8%, which is a two-year maximum. In the first quarter, the figure was 6.7%.
The Australian dollar strengthened against most of the 16 major currencies. As shown by the data, the number of people employed in the country increased by 14,000 in July, compared with analysts' expectations at 10,000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% compared with the revised figure in June at 5.3%.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index extending a three-month high, as slowing gains in China’s inflation, industrial production and car sales boosted bets policy makers will add stimulus to support growth in the region’s biggest economy.
Nikkei 225 8,978.6 +97.44 +1.10%
S&P/ASX 200 4,308.3 -4.26 -0.10%
Shanghai Composite 2,174.1 +13.11 +0.61%
China Minsheng Banking Corp., the nation’s first non-state lender, rose 1.5 percent.
Rio Tinto (RIO) Group climbed 3.6 percent in Sydney after earnings beat estimates and the mining company said a plan to sell diamond assets is “well advanced.”
Oki Electric Industry Co., the best-performing stock in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average this year through yesterday, plunged 34 percent as the ATM maker was put on watch for possible delisting after a unit overstated accounts.
European stocks climbed for a fifth day as Nestle SA (NESN) posted sales growth that beat estimates and a report showed China’s inflation cooled, increasing speculation that policy makers will do more to stimulate the economy.
Nestle, which accounts for more than 3 % of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP), advanced 2.4 % as higher prices helped to increase revenue. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB) A/S gained 1.3 % after the company raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts. Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) slid 2 % after saying it has lost more customers in the U.S. than analysts had forecast.
The Stoxx 600 increased 0.3 % to 270.01, its highest level since March 19.
National benchmark indexes gained in 14 of the 18 western- European markets.
FTSE 100 5,851.51 +5.59 +0.10% CAC 40 3,456.71 +18.45 +0.54% DAX 6,964.99 -1.16 -0.02%
Nestle climbed 2.4 % to 61.05 Swiss francs after the world’s largest food company said sales increased 6.6 %, excluding acquisitions, divestments and currency shifts in the first half of the year.
Of the 261 companies listed on the Stoxx 600 that have reported half-yearly profit this earnings season, 155 have exceeded analysts’ projections, while 101 have missed them.
Novo Nordisk advanced 1.3 % to 938 kroner after the world’s largest insulin maker said 2012 revenue will jump 9 % to 12 % in local currencies, compared with a previous forecast for an increase of 8 % to 11 %. Operating profit in local currencies will climb 15 %, more than the previous prediction of 10 %.
Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) added 3.6 % to 1,363 pence as Chief Executive Officer Peter Sands said yesterday that a New York regulator had no grounds for revoking the lender’s license. The Department of Financial Services said that Standard Chartered had processed $250 billion of transactions with Iranian banks that were subject to sanctions.
Bankia SA (BKIA), the lender Spain nationalized in May, surged 19 % to 1.51 euros for the largest gain on the Stoxx 600. The shares have more than doubled in price since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged on July 26 to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V), the smartphone maker that started using Microsoft Corp.’s operating system to revive its business, jumped 6.5 % to 2.28 euros after agreeing to sell its Qt app-tools unit to Digia Oyj.
Deutsche Telekom fell 2 % to 9.21 euros after Germany’s largest phone company said T-Mobile USA lost 557,000 contract customers in the second quarter, more than the 346,200 predicted by analysts.
Cable & Wireless Communications Plc (CWC) slid 2.2 % to 31.9 pence and BT Group Plc (BT/A) slipped 2.4 % to 216.3 pence.
Commerzbank AG (CBK) declined 4.2 % to 1.23 euros after projecting that net income in the second half of 2012 will fall below profit in the first half of the year. Germany’s second- largest lender also reported second-quarter net income that rose to 275 million euros from 24 million euros a year earlier. That topped the average analyst estimate of 270 million euros in a Bloomberg survey.
Major U.S. stock indexes closed with little change in the low trading volume
During the session, the consolidated, after rising against the backdrop of a lack of important messages that could set the direction of trading.
Support indices still have expectations for new injections of liquidity by the ECB, the Fed and the People's Bank of China. These expectations also hold sellers from taking action that would increase the depth of the correction after recent gains.
The focus of market participants are macro-economic data from China, which recorded a further slowing of inflation. This has increased expectations of market participants about the new measures to stimulate the economy by the PRC authorities.
Data from the U.S. though and came out better than expected (the number of initial claims of unemployment and the trade balance), but failed to provide substantial support indices.
As part of the index components DOW traded mixed. The leader shares in Cisco Systems (CSCO, +3,21%), which provides support to improve their rankings. More than any other in the share price dropped American Express (AXP, -2,64%).
Branches in the context of the major sectors of the index S & P demonstrate mixed performance. Most other basic materials sector rose (+0.6%). Here is the rest of the service sector (-0.2%).
At the time of closure:
Dow 13,165.19 -10.45 -0.08%
Nasdaq 3,018.64 +7.39 +0.25%
S & P 500 1,402.78 +0.56 +0.04%
Change % Change Last
Oil 93.49 +0.13 +0.14%
Gold 1,619.40 -0.80 -0.05%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,978.6 +97.44 +1.10%
S&P/ASX 200 4,308.3 -4.26 -0.10%
Shanghai Composite 2,174.1 +13.11 +0.61%
FTSE 100 5,851.51 +5.59 +0.10%CAC 40 3,456.71 +18.45 +0.54%
DAX 6,964.99 -1.16 -0.02%
Dow 13,165.19 -10.45 -0.08%
Nasdaq 3,018.64 +7.39 +0.25%
S&P 500 1,402.78 +0.56 +0.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2304 -0,50%
GBP/USD $1,5634 -0,15%
USD/CHF Chf0,9795 +0,82%
USD/JPY Y78,57 +0,18%
EUR/JPY Y96,68 -0,30%
GBP/JPY Y122,83 +0,04%
AUD/USD $1,0573 +0,02%
NZD/USD $0,8117 -0,46%
USD/CAD C$0,9913 -0,34%
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 31.7 35.1
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) June -3.4% -0.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) June +6.0% -2.0%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m July -0.2% +0.4%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) July +2.0% +1.7%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -1.9% +0.4%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -3.5% -1.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.2% +1.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.3% -1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.4% +0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July +2.3% +2.0%
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate July 7.2% 7.3%
12:30 Canada Employment July +7.3 +10.2
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index July -2.7% +0.1%
18:00 U.S. Federal budget July -59.7 -103.0
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