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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-08-2012
During today's trading the dollar reached a one month high against the yen amid rising Treasury yields, which reached a maximum of three.
At substantially strengthen the dollar against the euro yesterday's statement influenced Goldman Sachs Group Inc, under which it became known that the Federal Reserve hold until the revenge of the third round of bond purchases, known as quantitative easing.
An important event of the day, which is expected by many market participants began to yield data on the consumer price index, industrial production index and activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As it became known volume of industrial production in the U.S. in July increased by 0.6%, compared with a forecast from analysts of 0.5%. At the same time, the consumer price index remained unchanged in June. However, the data output by the index of manufacturing activity has surprised many economists and traders, as in August, he moved into negative territory to the level of -5.9 to 7.39 in July. I would also like to note that positive data a little later was able to please the state of the housing market index from the NAHB, which amounted to 37 in August, compared with 35 in July.
Pound during the day trading in a narrow range. At its price today was influenced by data on unemployment, according to which there were reduced to the level of 8.0% to 8.1%. We also learned that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in July by 5.9 thousand people, compared with growth of 6.4 thousand in June. At the same time, many analysts expect that figure to grow by 6.3 thousand
Today the euro weakened on speculation that the Swiss National Bank sold foreign currency against the backdrop of increasing its foreign exchange reserves to record levels last month.
Canadian dollar finally made a breakthrough below $ 0.99, breaking the barrier a significant number of options that protect this level amid speculation that the North American economic growth will support the country's exports. The course continues to trade below the three-month lows against the dollar.
The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 82.673, as investors bet that the Fed will start the third round of asset purchases.
European (SXXP) stocks were little changed, after the Stoxx Europe 600 reached its highest level in almost five months yesterday, as a worse-than-expected manufacturing report for the New York area revived hopes the Federal Reserve will act to stimulate the economy.
The Stoxx 600 lost 0.1 percent to 270.35 at the close of trading.
European stocks rallied for the last 10 weeks amid better-than-expected company earnings and speculation policy makers from will do more to stimulate the economy. The Stoxx 600 climbed yesterday as a report showed German growth slowed less than forecast.
National benchmark indexes declined in eight of the western-European markets that were open today.
FTSE 100 5,833.04 -31.74 -0.54% CAC 40 3,449.2 -1.07 -0.03% DAX 6,946.8 -27.59 -0.40%
A gauge of European mining companies posted the worst performance of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.
Iron-ore prices dropped to the lowest since Dec. 2009 yesterday on slower growth in China, the biggest user of the raw material, and a weaker outlook for the global economy.
Rio Tinto lost 3.4 percent to 3,038 pence, contributing the most to the Stoxx 600’s decline, while BHP Billiton Plc fell 2.3 percent to 1,936.5 pence.
Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC) slid 8.5 percent to 379.6 pence, its biggest decline since Sept. 22. First-half sales of $3.25 billion missed the average $3.4 billion analyst estimate, and the company said the market will remain volatile with uncertain pricing. Net income for the period fell 60 percent to $463 million.
Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (IMT) lost 1.7 percent to 2,489 pence. Australia will become the first country to require cigarettes to be sold in uniform packages after its top court rejected a challenge from tobacco companies, setting a precedent for other nations to follow.
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) fell 1 percent to 188.75 pence after Bank of America Corp. cut the world’s second-biggest mobile- phone company to neutral, the equivalent of hold, from buy.
FirstGroup Plc (FGP) slumped 6.1 percent to 243.2 pence. The company won a U.K. Department for Transport contract to operate the new InterCity West Coast rail franchise, which links London with Scotland, until 2026. Shares had gained 7.6 percent in the last five sessions after reports that it may win the contract.
Standard Chartered increased 4.1 percent to 1,426.5 pence.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) rallied 3.4 percent to 2.08 euros. The company will keep Windows as its smartphone platform, citing Chief Executive Officer Stephen Elop.
During the day, oil was trading with restraint, while showing gradual decline. But the price of oil rose sharply and suddenly, after data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed that the level of reserves fell last week, more than expected.
Inventory levels dropped to the level of 3700000 barrels to 366.2 million over seven to 10 August. According to the forecast decline was up 1.5 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2370000 barrels to 203.7 million level, exceeding the forecast for this at 2 million barrels.
Inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 677,000 to a value of 124.2 million, compared with a forecast for a decline of 275,000.
Oil is also added to the cost, as the report showed that industrial production in the U.S. rose in July by 0.6%, after rising by 0.1% in June on fears that the tensions in the Middle East will cause a failure of supply.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now at $ 93.70 a barrel.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture is now $ 115.18 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold futures traded near the maximum of the day at $ 1.600 against the backdrop of the fact that the published data on the U.S. showed mixed performance, and therefore increases the likelihood of further stimulus measures of monetary policy.
Trading in gold today, showed a mixed trend. At the beginning of the prices have fallen sharply, while updating yesterday's low, as was noted a weak physical demand for the metal. Trade organizations claim that the purchase of importers in India have fallen, as a weak local currency keeps the price of gold to almost record levels. The trend changed after the United States submitted their data, which helped increase the value of precious metals higher than yesterday's maximum values. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against rising prices.
It is learned that consumer prices in the U.S. remained unchanged in July, while the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has fallen below zero to the level of -5.9. At the same time, industrial production showed an increase of 0.6% in July.
The slowdown in the world and in the U.S. spurred speculation that the Fed will increase the liquidity in the financial system, which may cause the weakening U.S. dollar and attract investors seeking to hedge against inflation with precious metals.
But the central bank continues to delay carrying out such measures, often continuing to disappoint those who put on the increase in the value of precious metals.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today reached a low of 1592.0 dollars per ounce, set up after the session and is now trading at around 1602.8 dollars per ounce.
U.S. stock-index futures fell after a Federal Reserve report showed manufacturing in the New York area unexpectedly contracted.
Deere & Co. (DE) dropped more than 5% as profit trailed analysts’ estimates and the largest maker of farm equipment cut its full- year earnings forecast.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,925.04 -4.84 -0.05%
Hang Seng 20,052.29 -239.39 -1.18%
Shanghai Composite 2,118.94 -23.58 -1.10%
FTSE 5,839.76 -25.02 -0.43
CAC 3,444.91 -5.36 -0.16%
DAX 6,935.19 -39.20 -0.56%
Crude oil $93.04 -0,42%
Gold $1603.90 +0.09%
Data
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August +3.7% -2.5%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.6% +3.5% +3.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count July 6.4 6.3 -5.9
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate July 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate June 8.1% 8.1% 8.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y June +1.5% +1.9% +1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y June +1.8% +1.9% +1.8%
The dollar rose against most major currencies on speculation that the Fed will refrain from further measures to mitigate the monetary and as investors await a report today on the level of industrial production in the United States.
The U.S. currency added against the yen, reaching with the highest level in nearly a month. Earlier, the euro strengthened against the yen after the Commissioner of European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn made it clear that Spain is considering the possibility to request international help to rein in borrowing costs.
The pound rose against major currencies after a report showed that the unemployment rate in Britain unexpectedly fell in July from 8.1% to 8%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair has fallen sharply, while updating yesterday's low, and is now trading at $ 1.2275
GBP / USD: a pair of rose, setting the maximum at $ 1.5700, but now has receded a bit and is now trading at $ 1.5683
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair shows strong growth, while establishing new highs
At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will provide data on the production index for August, Empire Manufacturing, consumer price index, consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices, consumer price index (not seasonally adjusted), the main consumer price index for July. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will become aware of the amount of net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors in June, and the total net amount of purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in June. At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will be released capacity utilization for July. At the same time the U.S. announces a change in industrial production in July. At 14:30 GMT the U.S. will present data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in August. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on the Producer Price Index, the index of producer prices for the second quarter.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2385/90, $1.2350
Bids $1.2310, $1.2280/70, $1.2265/60, $1.2240
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550? $1.0520, $1.0500
Bids $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0400, $1.0350
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.20/25? Y79.00
Bids Y78.70/65, Y78.50, Y78.30/25, Y78.15/10
EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.60
Bids Y96.80, Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.05/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5780, $1.5750, $1.5730
Bids $1.5635/30, $1.5600
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920, stg0.7900/05, stg0.7885
Bids stg0.7820, stg0.7810/00, stg0.7780/75, stg0.7755/50
Negative background for creating trading yesterday released data on the euro area (index of sentiment in the business environment of the institute ZEW, data on industrial production and GDP), which were worse than expected. It also does not add any positive corporate reporting companies Rio Tinto and Carlsberg.
The market is waiting for data on the consumer price index and industrial production of the United States.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 5,843.59 -21.19 -0.36%
CAC 40 3,437.65 -12.62 -0.37%
DAX 6,937.41 -36.98 -0.53%
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2210, $1.2225, $1.2300, $1.2350
USD/JPY Y78.25, Y78.10, Y78.00
EUR/JPY Y97.00
GBP/USD $1.5675
AUD/USD Y82.20
Asian stocks fell a third time in four days as earnings at China Aerospace International Holdings Ltd. disappointed investors and steelmakers slid after the world’s biggest ore producer said China’s golden years of growth are over.
Nikkei 225 8,925.04 -4.84 -0.05%S&P/ASX 200 4,281.2 -10.97 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,118.94 -23.58 -1.10%
China Aerospace slumped 5.3 percent in Hong Kong after the maker of liquid-crystal displays said first-half profit probably dropped.
Kobe Steel Ltd. and other makers of industrial materials declined after an official at Vale SA said China’s growth is slowing.
Great Wall Motor Co. slid 3.7 percent after Australia’s consumer protection agency said asbestos was found in cars made by the Chinese automaker.
MPC Unanimously Backed Unchanged QE, Bank Rate In Aug
Most Members Aug Policy Decision Relatively Straightforward
But Some Members Saw Decision 'More Finely Balanced'
Some Saw 'Good Case' For More Asset Purchases In Aug
Most Wanted Take Stock FLS Over Coming Months
- And Implications FLS Had For 'Other Potential Policy Options'
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August +3.7% -2.5%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.6% +3.5% +3.7%
The dollar was 0.2 percent from an almost one-month high against the yen before data today that may add to signs of economic recovery in the U.S., curbing the chances of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Industrial production in the U.S. probably rose 0.5 percent last month after a 0.4 percent gain in June, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before today’s data. The New York Fed’s general economic index is predicted to be at 7 in August, a separate poll indicated. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the region and the last negative reading was in October.
Commerce Department figures yesterday showed July retail sales expanded by more than economists expected.
Demand for the euro was limited after figures yesterday showed gross domestic product contracted in Europe’s 17-nation currency bloc. GDP in the euro bloc fell 0.2 percent in the three months through June from the first quarter, when it stagnated, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said yesterday. Separate reports showed Germany’s expansion was faster than expected, while France avoided a contraction in the same period.
The Australian dollar slid versus its U.S. counterpart after a report today showed a consumer sentiment index published by Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) and the Melbourne Institute declined 2.5 percent to 96.6 in August. A number below 100 indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The so-called Aussie fell 0.1 percent to $1.0475 after earlier dropping to $1.0465, the lowest since Aug. 3.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.2315-30.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.5660-80.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose, approaching to yesterday's high.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index data. This is followed at 1230GMT by the July Consumer Price Index and August NY Fed Empire State Survey. The June Treasury International Capital System (TICS) data follows at 1300GMT, while at 1315GMT, industrial production is expected to increase 0.5% in July. This is followed at 1400GMT by the August Housing Market Index from the NAHB and then weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data at 1430GMT. Later on, at midnightGMT, Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota speaks at an event in Minot, North Dakota and afterwards will answer questions from the audience.
Yesterday, during the first half of the day the dollar was under pressure against the publication of important data for Germany, which eventually allowed the euro to grow substantially, updating the Monday's high. The growth rate of the single currency has continued to publish data on the GDP of Germany, who came out better than expected, showing thus an increase of 0.3%, compared with expectations at 0.1%. Following this trend in the market began to change as market participants moved on to more important event, which led to an increase in sales of the currency. Before the release of GDP data for the Eurozone euro currency exchange rate showed a slight decline, which continued after the publication of the report. During the rest of the day the euro was unable to regain its positions. The fall continued after the United States provided data on the level of retail sales and producer price index, which eventually helped the dollar to establish a new session, at least relative to the dollar.
The pound fell against the euro after a report showed that housing prices in the UK in July fell to -24 from -22, while showing the lowest rate for the year, underscoring the weakness of the economy. Also, to reduce the influence published data on the consumer price index. It is learned that the CPI rose by 2.6% on an annualized basis, compared to 2.4% in June. At the same time, economists expect the figure will be 2.3%.
The yen weakened against 16 major currencies after reports the Bank of Japan showed that the politicians are considering the possibility of extension of incentives to support economic growth. During the day, the yen gradually declined against the dollar, and after U.S. data updated four-week high. Eventually, the couple during the day showed an increase in the bag are his work 80 points, and was able to escape from a narrow trading range, which is restrained by a pair of upward movement.
Reduced now show as the New Zealand dollar. Against the background provided a report on the level of retail sales, which came out mixed, the rate began a slight decrease, which increased dramatically after the publication of data on the U.S.. And as a result of the exchange rate was able to update Monday's low against the dollar and continue its decline even further.
Also pleased with the dynamics of trading, and the Australian dollar, which fell on the session for more than half of the figure, updating the at least Friday.
Asian stocks rose as Bank of Japan minutes showed policy makers are considering steps to boost the economy, and before U.S. retail sales data expected to signal demand is recovering in the world’s largest economy.
Nikkei 225 8,929.88 +44.73 +0.50%
S&P/ASX 200 4,292.2 +8.91 +0.21%
Shanghai Composite 2,142.52 +6.45 +0.30%
Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Ltd., which makes shoes for Nike Inc., rose 1.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Noble Group Ltd., Asia’s biggest-listed commodity supplier, gained 7.2 percent in Singapore after second-quarter profit rose 39 percent.
Swire Properties Ltd. slumped 5.7 in Hong Kong after saying John Swire & Sons Ltd. is selling shares in the commercial landlord.
European stocks gained, rebounding from a two-day decline, as a report showed German growth slowed less than forecast, while minutes revealed that several Bank of Japan policy makers are prepared to stimulate the economy.
Standard Life Plc (SL/) rallied 8.1 percent as first-half profit at Scotland’s biggest insurer rose 15 percent. A.P. Moeller- Maersk A/S advanced 3.2 percent after increasing the full-year forecast for its container-shipping unit. CRH Plc (CRH) plunged 4.8 percent after saying a European sales decline will worsen.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) gained 0.7 percent to 270.54 at the close.
Germany’s economic growth slowed less in the second quarter than economists had forecast as exports and household spending helped to fend off the impact of the sovereign-debt crisis on Europe’s largest economy. Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent from the first quarter.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 15 of the 18 western-European markets today.
FTSE 100 5,864.78 +32.90 +0.56% CAC 40 3,450.27 +23.86 +0.70% DAX 6,974.39 +64.71 +0.94%
In Tokyo, minutes of the BOJ’s last meeting showed several board members said the central bank should not dismiss any policy options in combating risks to the economy.
A U.S. Commerce Department release showed that retail sales rose in July more than economists had predicted. They climbed 0.8 percent, their first advance in four months, exceeding the 0.3 percent median estimate of economists.
Standard Life surged 8.1 percent to 277.4 pence as operating profit climbed to 302 million pounds ($474 million) from 262 million pounds a year earlier. That beat the 263 million-pound median prediction of analysts.
Maersk advanced 3.2 percent to 41,880 kroner after reporting that its container business, the world’s largest, returned to profit in the second quarter as freight rates jumped. The company predicted a modest full-year profit for the unit. It had projected a “negative to neutral” result.
Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO) climbed 5.7 percent to 101.50 kroner. The Norwegian oil-services company reported second-quarter profit and sales that beat estimates.
Galp Energia SGPS SA (GALP) rose 1.3 percent to 11.72 euros after Portugal’s biggest oil producer said tests confirmed the presence of good quality crude at a well off the coast of Brazil known as Carcara. Galp holds a 14 percent stake in the consortium exploring the Carcara well.
Hochtief AG (HOT) declined 2.3 percent to 40 euros as Germany’s largest builder said that its profit targets for the year have become more challenging. The company set aside money for a delayed concert-hall project. It posted a second-quarter net loss of 15 million euros.
Even despite the fact that the indices provided support for a stronger-than-expected retail sales data, the current session still ended in the red. In such a dynamic and influenced by the negative statistics from Europe.
Today's data is recorded growth in retail sales in the U.S. at the end of July by 0.8% expected growth rate of 0.4%. The value of the index for June was revised up to -0.7% from -0.5%.
Profit Home Depot (HD) in the second quarter diluted earnings per share exceeded analysts' forecasts, while revenue was lower. Pi, the company raised its earnings forecast for the 2013 fiscal year above the average forecast of the market. Shares of HD today updated the historical high, reaching $ 54.93.
Against the background of the holiday season volumes in the market remain weak.
As part of DOW index most of the components in the red. Below are the remaining shares of Alcoa, Inc (AA, -1,87%). Over the rest of the shares rose in price Home Depot (HD, +3,48%).
Branches in the context of almost all components of the S & P are in the red. The growth shows only the health sector (0.3%), service sector (+0.1%). The greatest reduction in the basic materials sector shows (-0.4%).
At the time of closure:
Dow +2.63 13,172.06 +0.02%
Nasdaq -5.54 3,016.98 -0.18%
S & P -0.14 1,403.97 -0.01%
Change % Change Last
Oil $93.43 0.00 0.00%
Gold $1,601.80 -0.60 -0.04%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,929.88 +44.73 +0.50%
S&P/ASX 200 4,292.2 +8.91 +0.21%
Shanghai Composite 2,142.52 +6.45 +0.30%
FTSE 100 5,864.78 +32.90 +0.56%
CAC 40 3,450.27 +23.86 +0.70%
DAX 6,974.39 +64.71 +0.94%
Dow +2.63 13,172.06 +0.02%Nasdaq -5.54 3,016.98 -0.18%
S&P -0.14 1,403.97 -0.01%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2317 -0,12%
GBP/USD $1,5677 -0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,9749 +0,12%
USD/JPY Y78,73 +0,52%
EUR/JPY Y96,98 +0,41%
GBP/JPY Y123,40 +0,49%
AUD/USD $1,0486 -0,29%
NZD/USD $0,8050 -0,50%
USD/CAD C$0,9919 -0,05%
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August +3.7% -2.5%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%
01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.6% +3.5% +3.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count July 6.4 6.3
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate July 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate June 8.1% 8.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y June +1.5% +1.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y June +1.8% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m July 0.0% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y July +1.7% +1.5%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m July +0.2% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y July +2.2% +2.2%
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index August 7.39 6.7
13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows June 101.7
13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows June 55.0 63.5
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) July +0.4% +0.5%
13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization July 78.9% 79.3%
14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index August 35 34
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -3.7
22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.4%
22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI July 50.2
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