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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-08-2012
After three days of recession, market participants today are still able to achieve a strengthening of the euro. During the first half of the day maintained the pressure on the euro, as market participants were waiting for release of data on consumer price index. After its publication, it became clear that the situation remained the same as the index remained stable and in line with analysts' expectations. But despite this, the market situation started to change gradually in favor of the euro. The attention of many traders immediately switched to the output data for the U.S., which, as expected, were to influence the growth of the dollar. Prior to the publication of the reports the euro gained slightly, while departing from the values of the day. But immediately after the published data showed that the number of building permits has increased markedly in July, and the level of housing starts decreased by 1.1% the euro started to rise rapidly and confidently. Also helped the growth of the single currency presented by the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which fell in August to -7.1 from -12.9 in July. In the end of the session on the euro against the dollar was able to show growth at more than one figure.
Unprecedented movement also spread to other couples. Significant growth was able to show today, the pound sterling. After a bad start to the day, which was caused by the depreciation of currencies against the dollar by 50 points, the pair began their recovery. At first it was due to expectations of data on the level of retail sales, according to which a significant increase was recorded during the month of 0.3% compared to 0.1% in June. As a result of news of the pair managed to recover with minimum values and update with the high of the day. Output data for the United States helped the pair make another rapid spurt that the outcome of the session allowed the pair to show growth at a single figure.
Also notable movement was pleased today the Swiss franc. Its value today, had little impact index value of investors' expectations according to the ZEW and Credit Suisse, which amounted to -33.3 in August, compared with -42.5 in July. But a little more on the value of currency affect U.S. data, which caused the depreciation of the franc against the dollar by about 90 points.
The unusual dynamics of today introduced the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Surprising is the fact that the currency barely reacted to the economic releases from the United States, and strengthened the beginning only a couple of hours, which was due to the fact that the rating agency Moody's has published its annual report on Canada.
The other major pairs mainly show the same dynamics, which is a marked increase in the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.
European stocks advanced to their highest level since March as U.K. retail sales beat forecasts and U.S. building permits jumped to their highest in four years.
Novozymes A/S (NZYMB), the world’s biggest maker of industrial enzymes, gained 4.8 percent after reporting second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ projections. Mediaset SpA (MS) surged 11 percent amid reports Middle East investors are buying shares in the Italian broadcaster. Telekom Austria AG (TKA) slid 5.6 percent after cutting its profit and sales forecast for 2012.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.3 percent to 271.09 at 4:30 p.m. in London, its highest level since March 19.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 15 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,834.51 +1.47 +0.03% CAC 40 3,480.49 +31.29 +0.91% DAX 6,996.29 +49.49 +0.71%
Novozymes climbed 4.8 percent to 158 kroner after posting second-quarter net income of 495 million kroner ($82 million), exceeding analyst estimates of 483 million kroner.
Tesco Plc advanced 1.7 percent to 338.3 pence after British retail sales beat forecasts. Marks & Spencer Group Plc added 1.6 percent to 360 pence and Home Retail Group Plc gained 4.1 percent to 93 pence.
African Barrick Gold Plc (ABG) surged 8 percent to 425 pence after Toronto-based parent Barrick Gold Corp. said it has held talks to sell its stake in the company to China National Gold Group Corp.
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK) jumped 3.4 percent to 749.5 pence after reiterating its projection for 20 percent sales growth in 2012. First-half revenue rose 35 percent to $532.3 million from a year earlier, the company said.
Mediaset SpA surged 11 percent to 1.57 euros on speculation investors from the Middle East are buying the Italian broadcaster’s shares and may seek to become the company’s second-biggest shareholder.
Bankia jumped 17 percent to 1.40 euros. Banco Popular Espanol SA (POP) surged 15 percent to 1.72 euros.
Telekom Austria declined 5.6 percent to 6.94 euros as a gauge of telecommunications companies dropped. The mobile-phone operator predicted full-year revenue of 4.2 billion euros ($5.2 billion), compared with a forecast of 4.4 billion euros in June.
Vodafone Plc, the world’s second-largest mobile-phone company, lost 1.7 percent to 185.6 pence.
William Demant plunged 7.5 percent to 515 kroner after reporting first-half Ebit of 864 million kroner. That missed the median analyst estimate of 935 million kroner.
Lonmin Plc (LMI) plunged 6.8 percent to 648 pence, dropping for a fourth day. The third-biggest platinum producer said Chief Executive Officer Ian Farmer had been hospitalized with a serious illness and the company may miss output targets as a strike cut production.
Crude oil futures rose to $ 95 per barrel for the first time in three months against the backdrop of the fact that the number of building permits in the U.S. reached a maximum of four years, as well as concern that Israel will strike Iran, which will cause a failure in supply.
Prices showed an increase after the Commerce Department said that the number of building permits in July reached 812,000 units per annum. At the same time surprising data on the construction of new housing, which showed the decline to 746,000 units, compared with 754,000 in June.
During this month, oil prices have added more than 7%, helped by fears that the tensions in the Middle East will cause a failure in the supply of the region, which produces about a third of the world's oil.
Also on the price of oil continues to put pressure data from China, where there is a decrease in demand and slowing economic growth.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now at $ 95.10 a barrel.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture is now $ 114.47 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold prices rose on a background of information that central banks may begin to conduct incentives for maintaining the growth of the economy. Also, a substantial increase in the cost of precious metal influenced by published data from the U.S., which have been mixed and unexpected.
Market participants are now awaiting the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, which is to be held at the end of the month, and shed more light on the possible prospects of quantitative easing, which should ultimately affect the value of gold.
U.S. stock indexes also rose at the opening, while Treasury yields fell from the level of a three-month high as investors weighed the likelihood that the Fed will launch a new program of bond purchases in the next month.
Top-than-expected inflation data reassured investors that the price pressure will not prevent the Fed during the quantitative easing.
Also today, the World Gold Council said that the world demand for gold in the 2nd quarter fell 7% to its lowest level since the first quarter of 2010 as well as a reduction in investment demand, jewelry and industrial sectors has been more pronounced than with purchases of the metal by central banks.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today reached a low of 1614.6 dollars per ounce, then rose rapidly and is now trading at around 1600.2 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2335, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y78.85, Y78.90, Y79.25, Y79.50
EUR/JPY Y95.00
GBP/USD $1.5550, $1.5730
AUD/USD $1.0445, $1.0480, $1.0510
U.S. stock-index futures advanced as data showed building permits jumped to the highest level in four years during July.
New-home construction in the U.S. fell 1.1%, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits rose to an 812,000 pace, the most since August 2008.
Jobless claims climbed by 2,000 to 366,000 in the week ended Aug. 11, Labor Department figures showed.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,092.76 +167.72 +1.88%
Hang Seng 19,962.95 -89.34 -0.45%
Shanghai Composite 2,112.2 -6.75 -0.32%
FTSE 5,825.96 -7.08 -0.12%
CAC 3,450.36 +1.16 +0.03%
DAX 6,960.61 +13.81 +0.20%
Crude oil $94.54 +0,22%
Gold $1609.40 +0.17%
Фьючерсы снова указывают на спокойные торги в течении грядущей сессии. На фоне сезона отпусков объемы на рынке остаются сниженными.
Поддержку фьючерсам оказывает сильный квартальный отчет Cisco Systems (CSCO). Опубликованные макроэкономические данные оказались смешанными, поэтому существенного влияния на динамику фьючерсов не оказали.
Рост фьючерсов сдерживают смешанные квартальные данные от Wal-Mart (WMT).
После начала торгов будет опубликован производственный индекс ФРБ Филадельфии.
American Express (AXP) initiated with a Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Data
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation August +3.3% +2.4%
05:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) July +0.1% +0.1% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) July +1.6% +2.8%
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) August -42.5 -33.3
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI July -0.1% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y(finally) July +2.4% +2.4% +2.4%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y July +1.6% +1.9% +1.7%
The dollar rose to a monthly high against the yen in anticipation of release of the report, which may show that the number of housing starts in the U.S. reached a maximum of four years, and adding evidence that economic recovery is now stable.
The dollar will continue its three-day rise against the euro amid decreasing the prospects that the Federal Reserve will conduct quantitative easing.
The pound has appreciated in relation to all 16 major currencies after data released showed that the level of retail sales in Britain unexpectedly rose last month by 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in June. The yen fell amid rising demand for alternative higher-yielding assets.
The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar, after it became known that the inflation expectations of consumers in August increased by 2.4%, after rising 3.3% in July. Also on the value of the currency it has affected the assistant head of the RBA G. Debellya.
EUR/USD: Trading in the updated a couple of yesterday's low, and slightly recovered and is now trading at $ 1.2280
GBP/USD: pair showed mixed trends, setting a new minimum and updating yesterday's high
USD/JPY: during the course of the session showed steady and rapid growth by setting up at Y79.36
At 12:30 GMT, Canada will announce the amount of transactions in foreign securities and the change in volume production deliveries in June. At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will be provided with a report on the volume of building permits issued and the number of bookmarks of new foundations for July. At the same time there are data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits in August. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. manufacturing index will be presented to the Philadelphia Fed in August. Also at this time, the U.S. will announce the percentage of late mortgage payments in the second quarter
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2350, $1.2320, $1.2300
Bids $1.2250, $1.2240, $1.2210/00, $1.2150
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5780, $1.5750, $1.5730
Bids $1.5655/50, $1.5635/30, $1.5600
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0570, $1.0550, $1.0520, $1.0500
Bids $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0400
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.00, Y79.80
Bids Y79.10, Y79.05/00, Y78.80, Y78.50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.60
Bids Y97.05/00, Y96.85/80, Y96.70, Y96.55/50, Y96.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920, stg0.7900/05, stg0.7850
Bids stg0.7810/00, stg0.7780/75, stg0.7755/50
European stock indexes fell slightly after the recent rally.
Today the market in anticipation of the publication of data on the labor market and real estate in the U.S., which will be published at 15.30 on Kiev, as well as the production index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in 1700 Kiev.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 5,825.62 -7.42 -0.13%
CAC 40 3,448.36 -0.84 -0.02%
DAX 6,950.29 +3.49 +0.05%
Shares of Telekom Austria AG (TKA) fell 5.9% after declining earnings and sales forecast for 2012.
EUR/USD $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2335, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y78.85, Y78.90, Y79.25, Y79.50
EUR/JPY Y95.00
GBP/USD $1.5550, $1.5730
AUD/USD $1.0445, $1.0480, $1.0510
Asian stocks rose, with the region’s benchmark index poised to erase yesterday’s decline, after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said easing inflation allows more room to adjust monetary policy in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s state television reported Wen as saying there’s “growing room for monetary policy operation.” He said downward pressure on the economy remained “relatively large,” according to state radio.
Nikkei 225 9,092.76 +167.72 +1.88%S&P/ASX 200 4,330.2 +48.98 +1.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,113.97 -4.97 -0.23%
Fanuc Corp., a maker of industrial robots used in Chinese factories, gained 4.3 percent in Tokyo.
Goodman Fielder Ltd. fell 1.8 percent after the Australian baker said it hasn’t received a takeover proposal from Wilmar International Ltd.
Daphne International Holdings Ltd. surged 8.4 percent in Hong Kong after first-half profit increased at the footwear maker.
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation August +3.3% +2.4%
05:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
The yen slid versus all its major counterparts as Asian stocks rose and the extra yield investors receive from U.S. securities climbed to the most in more than six weeks, damping the allure of Japan’s currency. The difference between yields on two-year U.S. Treasuries and similar maturity Japanese government notes was 20 basis points, the most since July 3. Five-year U.S. government debt offered a premium of 59 basis points over its Japanese counterpart, up from this year’s low of 36 basis points.
The dollar touched a one-month high against the yen before U.S. housing data that may curtail prospects for monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve that tends to debase the greenback. Reports due today are forecast to show new home construction remained near an almost four-year high and building permits increased. The annual pace for U.S. housing starts was probably at 756,000 in July, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before today’s Commerce Department report. That compares with a 760,000 rate in the previous month, the fastest since October 2008. The rate for building permits may have climbed to 769,000 last month from 760,000 in June, a separate poll showed.
New Zealand’s currency was supported after whole-milk powder prices climbed for a second-straight time at auction, according to Fonterra, the world’s largest dairy exporter. The price for October delivery rose 7.3 percent an trade-weighted index on the company’s GlobalDairyTrade website showed. The company accounts for about 40 percent of the global trade in dairy products.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in a range of $1.2280-$1.2305.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.5670-90.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose, updated the monthly high.
UK data at 0830GMT sees Retail Sales for July as well as SMMT Car Production data. Food sales in June were hit by the exceptionally wet weather, with the start of the barbecue season a washout, but non-food sales were up 1.2% on the month, boosted by heaving early summer discounting in clothing and footwear. EMU data at 0900GMT sees final HICP for July, which had a preliminary reading of 2.4%. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and also Housing Starts data. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage data then follows at 1430GMT. Late US data then sees the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.
During yesterday's trading the dollar reached a one month high against the yen amid rising Treasury yields, which reached a maximum of three.
At substantially strengthen the dollar against the euro statement influenced Goldman Sachs Group Inc, under which it became known that the Federal Reserve hold until the revenge of the third round of bond purchases, known as quantitative easing.
An important event of the day, which is expected by many market participants began to yield data on the consumer price index, industrial production index and activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As it became known volume of industrial production in the U.S. in July increased by 0.6%, compared with a forecast from analysts of 0.5%. At the same time, the consumer price index remained unchanged in June. However, the data output by the index of manufacturing activity has surprised many economists and traders, as in August, he moved into negative territory to the level of -5.9 to 7.39 in July. I would also like to note that positive data a little later was able to please the state of the housing market index from the NAHB, which amounted to 37 in August, compared with 35 in July.
Pound during the day trading in a narrow range. At its price was influenced by data on unemployment, according to which there were reduced to the level of 8.0% to 8.1%. We also learned that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in July by 5.9 thousand people, compared with growth of 6.4 thousand in June. At the same time, many analysts expect that figure to grow by 6.3 thousand.
The euro weakened on speculation that the Swiss National Bank sold foreign currency against the backdrop of increasing its foreign exchange reserves to record levels last month.
Canadian dollar finally made a breakthrough below $ 0.99, breaking the barrier a significant number of options that protect this level amid speculation that the North American economic growth will support the country's exports. The course continues to trade below the three-month lows against the dollar.
Asian stocks fell a third time in four days as earnings at China Aerospace International Holdings Ltd. disappointed investors and steelmakers slid after the world’s biggest ore producer said China’s golden years of growth are over.
Nikkei 225 8,925.04 -4.84 -0.05%S&P/ASX 200 4,281.2 -10.97 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,118.94 -23.58 -1.10%
China Aerospace slumped 5.3 percent in Hong Kong after the maker of liquid-crystal displays said first-half profit probably dropped.
Kobe Steel Ltd. and other makers of industrial materials declined after an official at Vale SA said China’s growth is slowing.
Great Wall Motor Co. slid 3.7 percent after Australia’s consumer protection agency said asbestos was found in cars made by the Chinese automaker.
European (SXXP) stocks were little changed, after the Stoxx Europe 600 reached its highest level in almost five months yesterday, as a worse-than-expected manufacturing report for the New York area revived hopes the Federal Reserve will act to stimulate the economy.
The Stoxx 600 lost 0.1 percent to 270.35 at the close of trading.
European stocks rallied for the last 10 weeks amid better-than-expected company earnings and speculation policy makers from will do more to stimulate the economy. The Stoxx 600 climbed yesterday as a report showed German growth slowed less than forecast.
National benchmark indexes declined in eight of the western-European markets that were open today.
FTSE 100 5,833.04 -31.74 -0.54% CAC 40 3,449.2 -1.07 -0.03% DAX 6,946.8 -27.59 -0.40%
A gauge of European mining companies posted the worst performance of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.
Iron-ore prices dropped to the lowest since Dec. 2009 yesterday on slower growth in China, the biggest user of the raw material, and a weaker outlook for the global economy.
Rio Tinto lost 3.4 percent to 3,038 pence, contributing the most to the Stoxx 600’s decline, while BHP Billiton Plc fell 2.3 percent to 1,936.5 pence.
Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC) slid 8.5 percent to 379.6 pence, its biggest decline since Sept. 22. First-half sales of $3.25 billion missed the average $3.4 billion analyst estimate, and the company said the market will remain volatile with uncertain pricing. Net income for the period fell 60 percent to $463 million.
Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (IMT) lost 1.7 percent to 2,489 pence. Australia will become the first country to require cigarettes to be sold in uniform packages after its top court rejected a challenge from tobacco companies, setting a precedent for other nations to follow.
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) fell 1 percent to 188.75 pence after Bank of America Corp. cut the world’s second-biggest mobile- phone company to neutral, the equivalent of hold, from buy.
FirstGroup Plc (FGP) slumped 6.1 percent to 243.2 pence. The company won a U.K. Department for Transport contract to operate the new InterCity West Coast rail franchise, which links London with Scotland, until 2026. Shares had gained 7.6 percent in the last five sessions after reports that it may win the contract.
Standard Chartered increased 4.1 percent to 1,426.5 pence.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) rallied 3.4 percent to 2.08 euros. The company will keep Windows as its smartphone platform, citing Chief Executive Officer Stephen Elop.
After a multi-directional trading began major U.S. stock indices ended the session third consecutive session on the dynamics of a mixed background of concerns of investors about the U.S. and Europe.
Against the background of the holiday season volumes on the market are reduced. Published macroeconomic data were more negative than neutral. However, a significant impact on the dynamics of trading has not published statistics.
Among the published data it is worth noting the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which went up in August at -5.9 points vs. 6.7 points.
Investor's in no hurry to open positions, waiting for additional information that will determine what further actions by central banks, in particular the ECB and the Fed.
Inhibit the growth of the index did not meet expectations quarterly results from the manufacturer of agricultural machinery Deere (DE).
It is worth noting that despite the lack of fundamental reasons, which would have justified the August increase in the index, is very likely correct. Spoke in favor of this deterioration in the global economy against the background waiting position of central banks, as well as the relatively weak quarterly results of many companies.
As part of the index components DOW demonstrate mixed performance. Over the rest of the shares rose in price Cisco Systems (CSCO, +1,34%). Below are the remaining shares of Boeing Co. (BA, -1,06%).
Branches in the context of all major sectors of the index S & P show mostly positive momentum. Leading the service sector and health sector, which show an increase of 0.4%. Most of all public utilities sector fell (-0.3%).
At the time of closure:
Dow 13,164.78 -7.36 -0.06%
Nasdaq 3,030.93 +13.95 +0.46%
S & P 500 1,405.53 +1.60 +0.11%Change % Change Last
Oil 94.21 -0.12 -0.13%
Gold 1,606.90 +0.30 +0.02%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,925.04 -4.84 -0.05%
S&P/ASX 200 4,281.2 -10.97 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,118.94 -23.58 -1.10%
FTSE 100 5,833.04 -31.74 -0.54%CAC 40 3,449.2 -1.07 -0.03%
DAX 6,946.8 -27.59 -0.40%
Dow 13,164.78 -7.36 -0.06%
Nasdaq 3,030.93 +13.95 +0.46%
S&P 500 1,405.53 +1.60 +0.11%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2286 -0,25%
GBP/USD $1,5679 +0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,9775 +0,27%
USD/JPY Y78,98 +0,32%
EUR/JPY Y97,03 +0,05%
GBP/JPY Y123,81 +0,33%
AUD/USD $1,0500 +0,13%
NZD/USD $0,8071 +0,26%
USD/CAD C$0,9891 -0,28%
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation August +3.3% +2.4%
05:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) July +0.1% +0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) July +1.6%
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) August -42.5
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI July -0.1%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) July +2.4% +2.4%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y July +1.6% +1.9%
12:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities June 26.11 10.67
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) June -0.4% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims - 361 365
12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln July 0.755
12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln July 0.760
14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey August -12.9 -4.3
22:45 New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) Quarter II +0.3%
22:45 New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) Quarter II -0.1%
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