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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-08-2012
During the day, the mood of the market was moderately positive. During the first half of trading the euro rose against the U.S. dollar in low trading volume after the economic data were better than expected in Greece, and Italy's auction of treasury bills placement is successful. According to Italy has sold treasury bills to the bag 8 billion euros ($ 9.9 billion). Demand for the dollar was weak on the eve of release of data on the level of retail sales and industrial production, which will be published this week. But despite the significant growth that was more a figure during the European session, the euro is still unable to resist the pressure from sellers in the U.S. session. Ultimately the dollar against the euro to regain 40% of incurred losses during the day.
The pound fell against the euro after the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that the debt crisis in the euro area continue to hamper economic growth in the UK. Also on the depreciation of the currency affected by the fact that market participants are waiting for the publication of data on inflation, which is expected to slow to the minimum values for the two and a half years.
The first part of the day the yen rose against most of the 16 major currencies as investors sought safe haven for their assets against the debt crisis in Europe, which negatively affects the growth of the global economy. It is also to strengthen the currency impact data, which showed that Japan's economy grew less than expected. Economic growth in Japan fell to 1.4% per annum in the second quarter compared with a revised 5.5 percent in the first three months of the year. But even after such a building could not hold out a couple of achieved values, and the remainder of the session showed growth, updating the maximum value of the day.
Course of the New Zealand dollar rose as market participants are waiting for the release of data on the level of retail sales that are projected to increase by 0.7%.
Also during the session were also recorded depreciation of the Australian dollar fell against 14 of the 16 major currencies as signs the global economic crisis eroded demand for higher-yielding currencies.
European stocks retreated as slowing economic growth in Japan offset increased demand at an Italian debt auction.
Petrofac (PFC) Ltd. fell 5.2 percent as the oil and gas engineer said profit growth will slow. Unicredit SpA and Intesa (ISP) Sanpaolo SpA advanced after Italy sold 8 billion euros ($9.9 billion) of debt.
The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4 percent to 268.72 at the close of trade.
National benchmark indexes fell in 14 of the 18 western European markets today.
FTSE 100 5,831.88 -15.23 -0.26% CAC 40 3,426.41 -9.21 -0.27% DAX 6,909.68 -34.88 -0.50%
Japanese data today showed a reconstruction-fueled rebound in the country’s economy waned in the second quarter as consumer spending growth almost stalled and export gains diminished.
Gross domestic product advanced an annualized 1.4 percent in the three months through June, less than the median economist estimate of 2.3 percent.
Julius Baer (BAER) dropped 7.4 percent to 32.80 Swiss francs after the money manager agreed to pay about 860 million francs ($880 million) for Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch non-U.S. wealth management business. The company plans to raise 750 million francs through a rights offering to help fund the deal.
Petrofac dropped 5.2 percent to 1,486 pence for a fourth- day of declines after the U.K. oil and gas engineer said profit growth in the second half will slow as projects are delayed. The company reported first-half net profit of $325 million, beating the average analyst estimate of $314 million.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) declined 6 percent to 2.18 euros.
Solarworld AG (SWV) sank 12 percent to 1.16 euros after Germany’s biggest panel-maker said it sees lower full-year revenue in 2012 from a year earlier. The company reported a second-quarter net loss of 161 million euros and sales of 169.6 million euros for the period.
Unicredit (UCG), Italy’s largest bank, rose 1 percent to 2.94 euros. Intesa, the country’s second-biggest, gained 0.8 percent to 1.10 euros.
Crude oil futures rose on fears that rising tensions in the Middle East will cause a failure in the supply of the region, which accounts for about one-third of world production.
Also, the increase in oil prices has affected the information that Israel plans to introduce a national system of text messages to alert the public of the dangers that can arise in an attack on Iran. At the same time, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is the jumping-off point for about 20% of oil in the world, since July 1 the European Union imposed sanctions on Iranian oil.
Today, oil prices rose to a level of $ 115 per barrel, which was the first time in over the last three months. Also, the price continues to influence the news that due to the slowdown in global economic activity has reduced the International Energy Agency forecast oil demand in 2013 to 400,000 barrels a day.
Tension also added a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that most of the threats to the security of Israel was dwarfed by the prospect that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons.
In connection with this situation, many analysts predict that the upward trend for oil will continue this week.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now at $ 92.40 a barrel.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture is now $ 113.54 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold prices rose because of the probability arose that the European Central Bank may intervene and support the euro. It is also the cause of growth has been speculation as to what a weak global economic growth will cause further stimulus measures by central banks.
But, even though it is, precious metals traded in a narrow range, as the weak activity in the stock markets indicates a reduction of risk appetite among investors.
Recall that the price of the metal rose last week more than 1%, mainly on rumors that the ECB could take further steps such as buying bonds to support the single currency, which was severely hit by the debt crisis in the eurozone this year.
Also today, influenced the course of trading information, that Italy, as planned, successfully attracted eight billion euros, or 9.829 billion dollars, although at a slightly higher return. Investors remain cautious. Hedge funds and money managers have reduced their net long positions in U.S. gold futures and options this week on August 7, as in any doubt about an imminent monetary stimulus by the Fed and other central banks.
But, despite a slight increase during the session of the course gold has fallen sharply over the last few hours of trading, updating the minimum of the day.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today, high of 1623.7 dollars per ounce, and then declined and is now trading at around 1615.0 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50, Y78.70
EUR/GBP stg0.7790
EUR/AUD $1.1600
Japanese second quarter real GDP grew at only 1.4% annual rate. Japan gets less attention these days but is still the world's third-largest economy. There are no US economic releases and important earnings report.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,885.15 -6.29 -0.07%
Hang Seng 20,081.36 -54.76 -0.27%
Shanghai Composite 2,136.08 -32.74 -1.51%
FTSE 5,831.62 -15.49 -0.26%
CAC 3,442.79 +7.17 +0.21%
DAX 6,950.7 +6.14 +0.09%
Crude oil $93.85 +1,06%
Gold $1622.90 +0.01%
Coca-Cola (KO) was downgraded to a Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs. The stock was also removed from the firm’s Conviction Buy List.
The yen rose against most of the 16 major currencies as investors sought safe haven for their assets against the debt crisis in Europe, which negatively affects the growth of the global economy. It is also to strengthen the currency impact data, which showed that Japan's economy grew less than expected. Economic growth in Japan fell to 1.4% per annum in the second quarter compared with a revised 5.5 percent in the first three months of the year.
At the same time, the euro rebounded against the dollar after Italy had sold treasury bills to the bag 8 billion euros ($ 9.9 billion). Previously, the exchange rate fell, as the ECB Governing Council member Luc Cohen stated that the purchase of bonds in Spain and Italy will not solve the difficulties encountered, and will not affect the growth of investor confidence. Yield increases as financial markets do not trust the Spanish and Italian authorities to take steps to restore their economies.
Demand for the dollar was weak on the eve of release of data on the level of retail sales and industrial production, which will be published this week.
Course of the New Zealand dollar rose as market participants are waiting for the release of data on the level of retail sales, which is expected to grow by 0.7%.
EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair has grown substantially, showing thus an increase of more than one figure, and is now trading at $ 1.2350
GBP/USD: a pair of rose, updating the Friday's high, and is now trading in the area of maximum
USD/JPY: during the European session, the pair fell Y78.15, but then recovered slightly
At 22:45 GMT New Zealand has announced a change in retail sales with and without allowance for vehicle sales for the second quarter. At 23:01 GMT the UK will provide data on the balance of housing prices from the RICS in July. At 23:50 GMT Japan will publish the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in August. At the same time leaves the index of activity in the services sector in June.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2385, $1.2365, $1.2345/50
Bids $1.2300, $1.2260, $1.2240
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5800/10, $1.5780, $1.5750, $1.5700/10
Bids $1.5650, $1.5635/30, $1.5600
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635, $1.0620, $1.0610/15, $1.0600, $1.0575/80
Bids $1.0530, $1.0500, $1.0480/70, $1.0450
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920, stg0.7870/80
Bids stg0.7810/00, stg0.7780/75
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.70, Y78.35/40
Bids Y78.15/10, Y78.00, Y77.50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y97.60, Y97.50, Y96.70, Y96.50
Bids Y96.05/00, Y95.80, Y95.70, Y95.50, Y95.25/20, Y95.00
To date, no major scheduled macroeconomic data. The focus of the market are preliminary findings, published in Japan, which showed that the growth of the economy by 1.4% yoy c April to June 2012, while analysts expected a rate increase of 2.7%. This statistic was another signal of slowing growth in Asian economies after last week's disappointing data on industrial production and trade balance of China.
FTSE 100 5,845.49 -1.62 -0.03%
DAX 6,970.33 +25.77 +0.37%
CAC 3,439.34 +3.72 +0.11%
Shares of Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC Holdings down 0.35%, 0.54% and 0.28% respectively, quotes, UBS AG fell by 0,14%, Deutsche Bank - 0.73%.
Paper BP decreased by 0.36% after the news that the company sells assets to process gas in Texas (USA) for 227.5 million dollars Closing is expected in the IV quarter of this year in obtaining approval from regulatory authorities.
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50, Y78.70
EUR/GBP stg0.7790
EUR/AUD $1.1600
Sold E8.0bln 12-month BOT, average yield 2.767% (2.697%), cover 1.69 (1.55)
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as slowing economic growth in Japan added to signs of a deepening global slump, and amid optimism the U.S. Federal Reserve will add new stimulus.
Nikkei 225 8,885.15 -6.29 -0.07%
S&P/ASX 200 4,283.3 +6.00 +0.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,141.32 -27.49 -1.27%
Nexon Co. sank 8.1 percent in Tokyo, sliding for a second day after the developer of online games cut its profit forecast.
BlueScope Steel Ltd. surged 35 percent in Sydney after agreeing to sell some of its operations to Nippon Steel Corp.
Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that depends on North America for almost half its revenue, climbed 0.7 percent after a report the Fed Bank of San Francisco’s president is in favor of taking measures to boost the economy.
Genting Singapore Plc slid 2.3 percent after the casino-resort operator’s sales missed estimates.
23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter II +1.2% +0.3%
The dollar advanced against most of its 16 major counterparts on signs Europe’s debt crisis is weighing on economies across the globe, boosting demand for the relative safety of the U.S. currency. The greenback maintained four days of gains against the euro before reports tomorrow forecast to show gross domestic product grew at a slower pace in Germany and contracted in France. The euro-area economy probably shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before tomorrow’s data. France contracted by 0.1 percent, while German growth slowed to 0.2 percent, separate polls showed.
Data today showed Japan’s economy expanded less than analysts estimated as exports and consumer spending weakened. The pace of economic growth in Japan cooled to an annualized 1.4 percent in the second quarter from a revised 5.5 percent in the first three months of the year, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 2.3 percent gain.
Demand for the Australian and New Zealand dollars was tempered as Asian stocks failed to extend a weekly advance that was the biggest since January.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair was traded in range $1.2260-$1.2300.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was traded in range $1.5660-$1.5680.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose, stepping back from Friday's low.
European data for Monday starts at 0600GMT with German wholesale prices data for June, which is followed at 0645GMT by June current account data from France. There is also a German government press conference at 0930GMT. The US also holds three and six month bill auctions today. UK data is limited to CML Mortgage Approvals at 0830GMT.
After the decline of the euro against the dollar in the first half of the day, the rate rose sharply, updating the maximum value of the day. Most likely this increase was caused by rumors that the People's Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirements for commercial banks. Such a move the authorities in China is quite logical, given the recent weak data on industrial production and inflation, as well as the deteriorating situation on international markets.
The yen rose against most major currencies as investors sought refuge after data showed that China's exports grew by 1% in July, compared with growth of 11.3% in June, prompting concern that global economic growth slows. Economists forecast that export growth of 8%.
The Australian dollar fell against most currencies on fears of a slowdown in China, which is an important trading partner for Australia. But despite this, during the session, the exchange rate could be restored almost to the level of opening day.
During the course of the day more than half of the Canadian dollar declined against the dollar, thus showing the first drop in six days. It is learned that the number of employed fell by 30,400 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose to 7.3%. But at the end of the session, the pair could be strengthened by upgrading with yesterday's low.
Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index trimming the biggest weekly advance since January, after companies including Li & Fung Ltd. posted lower profit and as China reported export growth slowed more than economists’ expectations. Outbound shipments increased 1 percent from a year earlier and imports rose 4.7 percent, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing. The trade surplus was $25.1 billion compared with $31.5 billion a year earlier. Export growth was below all 32 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Nikkei 225 8,891.44 -87.16 -0.97%
S&P/ASX 200 4,277.3 -30.97 -0.72%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.9 -5.21 -0.24%
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. fell 2.5 percent, leading Chinese creditors lower, after new loans last month came in less than analysts expected.
Li & Fung plunged by a record in Hong Kong as reduced spending by U.S. and European shoppers drove down core operating profit at the supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Trend Micro Inc. slumped 9.1 percent in Tokyo after earnings fell at the maker of anti-virus software.
Most European stocks fell, but despite this Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended the week in positive territory, showing with his tenth consecutive weekly gain. Such dynamics was due to the fact that the published Chinese data showed that the trade surplus fell more than expected, adding fears that the level of the global economy slows.
Shares of Bank of Ireland Plc fell 3.1% to 9.5 cents per euro. In the first half pretax loss widened to 1.26 billion euros from 556 million euros a year earlier. It was worse than forecast at 899 million euros.
ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) increased by 5.8% as Germany's largest steelmaker reported its first profit in the fourth quarter.
Stoxx 600 fell 0.1% to 269.88
National indexes fell in 14 out of 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,847.11 -4.40 -0.08% CAC 40 3,435.62 -21.09 -0.61% DAX 6,944.56 -20.43 -0.29%
Bankia SA shares fell 20% to 1.21 euros, after a 11-day rally.
Company Bunzl, which provides delivery services for food and medical companies lost 4.6%, while showing the biggest drop since August 8, after UBS AG recommended selling shares.
The cost of Hannover Re fell 2.3% to 48.38 euros. As it became known, the profit in the second quarter decreased by 13% due to unrealized losses on investments. Net profit fell to 144 million euros from 166.2 million euros a year earlier. This was lower than forecast by economists at the level of 170.5 million euros.
Metso Oyj (MEO1V) and Outotec Oyj (OTE1V) retreated 2.1% to 30.78 euros and 1.7% to 38.75 euros, respectively.
Shares Aspo Oyj (ASU1V) fell 0.2% to 5.99 euros. The company said that the annual operating profit will be significantly lower than in 2011.
Fugro NV (FUR), the world's largest deepwater appraiser, lost 2.9% to 50.82 euros. Net profit in the first half year amounted to 115 million euros, compared with expectations of 120 million euros.
Shares of Barclays Plc (BARC) rose 2.7% to 183.85 pence after it appointed former executive director of the Bank of England, David Walker as chairman.
U.S. stocks finished the session with a modest increase. At the end of the week DOW index added 0,85%, Nasdaq rose by 1,78%, S & P500 rose 1.07%.
The pressure on the indices have weak data on China's trade surplus, which recorded a significant slowdown in exports in the last reporting period. This points to a slowdown in the global economy and the availability of economic difficulties at the leading consumers of Chinese products - the U.S. and the EU.
News background was not very busy. Were published data on the index of import prices for July, which came out much lower than forecast (0.6% vs. 0.1%). However, the impact on the index, they did not have.
As part of DOW index most of the components in the red. The maximum loss demonstrate the shares American Express (AXP, -1,10%). Above the rest of the shares traded Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +1,49%).
Branches in the context of the major sectors of the index S & P show a positive trend. In the zero point is the service sector. Show the highest growth technology sector (+0.4%) and the conglomerate sector (+0.4%)
At the moment:
Dow +42.76 13,207.95 +0.32%
Nasdaq +2.22 3,020.86 +0.07%
S & P +3.07 1,405.87 +0.22%
22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter II -1.5% +0.7%
22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q Quarter II -2.5% +1.0%
23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance July -22% -23%
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes -
23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index June +0.7% -0.3%
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