CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-05-2014

Nikkei 14,149.52 -50.07 -0.35%

Hang Seng 22,261.61 +398.62 +1.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,052.87 +41.74 +2.08%

S&P 1,896.65 +18.17 +0.97%

NASDAQ 4,143.86 +71.99 +1.77%

Dow 16,695.47 +112.13 +0.68%

FTSE 1,364.48 +9.08 +0.67%

CAC 4,493.65 +16.37 +0.37%

DAX 9,702.46 +121.01 +1.26%

EUR/USD $1,3758 +0,01%

GBP/USD $1,6867 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,8876 +0,16%

USD/JPY Y102,14 +0,28%

EUR/JPY Y140,52 +0,29%

GBP/JPY Y172,27 +0,39%

AUD/USD $0,9361 +0,01%

NZD/USD $0,8618 +0,07%

USD/CAD C$1,0894 -0,03%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter I +3.5% [Revised From +3.4%] +3.2%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter I +9.3%

01:30 Australia Home Loans March +2.3% +1.1%

05:30 China Retail Sales y/y April +12.2% +12.2%

05:30 China Industrial Production y/y April +8.8% +8.9%

05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment April +17.6% +17.8%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 61.2 63.5

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 43.2 41.3

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release 2014

12:30 U.S. Retail sales April +1.2% [Revised From +1.1%] +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto April +0.7% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index April +0.6% +0.4%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories March +0.4% +0.4%

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Review

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May -1.8

21:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m April +3.4%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report May

21:05 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter I +1.2% +0.9%

22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q Quarter I +0.7% +0.9%

The stock indices rallied to six-year high, boosted by mining shares. Mining stocks climbed due to an update on market reforms in China.

The stock indices were also supported by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's comments last week. Draghi said that the ECB could add new stimulus measures in June to tackle low inflation. Increasing concerns over Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote.

Sky Deutschland AG shares declined 9.6% after British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc announced the company wants to acquire control of Sky Deutschland AG.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,851.75                             +37.18                     +0.55%

DAX                                      9,702.46                            +121.01                     +1.26%

CAC 40                                 4,493.65                             +16.37                     +0.37%

Brent rose for the first time in three days as a vote in Ukraine stoked concern that oil supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, may be curbed. West Texas Intermediate increased after hedge funds cut wagers.

Futures rose as much as 0.8 percent in London. Pro-Russian groups hailed a large majority that voted for secession in balloting in eastern Ukraine dismissed as illegitimate by the government in Kiev and its U.S. and European allies. The global oil market is sufficiently supplied and demand is “great,” according to Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Minister Ali Al-Naimi.

“There is still a lit fuse in Ukraine,” Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. in Middelfart, Denmark, said by e-mail. “The weekend’s unofficial referendum means that the geopolitical tensions will still be around when considering the longer term.”

Brent for June settlement climbed as much as 88 cents to $108.77 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $108.55 at 1:35 p.m. London time. The contract slid 15 cents to $107.89 on May 9, capping a second weekly decline. The volume of all futures traded was about 2 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

WTI for June delivery rose 0.3 percent to $100.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $8.28 to Brent on ICE. The spread widened for a second day on May 9 to close at $7.90.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over tensions in Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the Swiss economic data. Swiss retail sales increased 3.0%, from a 1.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised up from 1.0%. Analysts had expected a 1.9% increase.

The British pound climbed against the U.S., but later lost a part of its gains. The British currency was supported by expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in the first quarter of the next year.

The Canadian dollar recovered a part of its Friday’s losses against the U.S. dollar.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S., but later lost its gains. The Australian currency was supported by good economic data from Australia. The National Australia Bank’s business confidence index increased to 6 in April, from 4.1 in March.

The price of gold is rising in price amid tensions in eastern Ukraine , where the weekend went to vote on the establishment of the independent republics . However, neither the authorities of Ukraine, nor the Western countries do not recognize the outcome of the "referendum" .

Ukrainian crisis could have negative consequences for the global economy , I'm sure the director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde . It encompasses the risks " that are very difficult to measure and that can unpredictably affect other countries," she said in an interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt.

The conflict around the Ukraine , according to Lagarde , will have a negative impact on international trade, foreign investment , as well as to international capital flows and supply in Europe.

At the same time the head of the organization said that Ukraine needs financial assistance in excess of $ 17 billion , which has already promised to the IMF. Kiev should support foreign governments and other financial institutions , said Lagarde . The international community has " absolutely no other choice ."

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1304.50 .

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3805/10, $1.3825, $1.3925

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.35

USD/CAD Cad1.0885, Cad1.0915

AUD/USD $0.9240, $0.9300, 0.9350/60, $0.9410

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/NOK Nok8.1500

U.S. stock-index futures rose as investors  ignore rising tension in Ukraine Monday and the Dow Jones industrial average could power forward to new record highs.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,149.52 -50.07 -0.35%

Hang Seng 22,261.61 +398.62 +1.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,052.87 +41.74 +2.08%

FTSE 6,841.3 +26.73 +0.39%

CAC 4,484.37 +7.09 +0.16%

DAX 9,676.13 +94.68 +0.99%

Crude oil $100.40 (+0.41%)

Gold $1301.20 (+1.00%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Travelers (TRV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey  

Downgrades:

Other:

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April      4.1                    6.0

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Current                     April      57.9      45.2     41.6

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook                     April      34.7                  50.3

07:15    Switzerland            Retail Sales Y/Y                                              March +1.2%  +1.9% +3.0%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over tensions in Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The euro was up against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the Swiss economic data. Swiss retail sales increased 3.0%, from a 1.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised up from 1.0%. Analysts had expected a 1.9% increase.

The British pound climbed against the U.S. The British currency was supported by expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in the first quarter of the next year.

The Canadian dollar recovered a part of its Friday’s losses against the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.3775

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6903

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

16:00    U.S.                       FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                           

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                          April      -36.9     112.6   

23:01    United Kingdom     BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y      April      -1.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3930/35, $1.3890-900, $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810

Bids $1.3735, $1.3705/00, $1.3650/40, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930

Bids $1.6810/00, $1.6765, $1.6715, $1.6700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9380

Bids $0.9345, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.35/45, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00

Bids Y139.85, Y139.50,  Y139.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.50, Y102.10/20,

Bids Y101.50, Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8220/30, stg0.8190/200

Bids stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

The stock indices climbed supported by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's comments last week. Draghi said that the ECB could add new stimulus measures in June to tackle low inflation. Increasing concerns over Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote.

Sky Deutschland AG shares declined 5.4% after British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc announced the company wants to acquire control of Sky Deutschland AG.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,841.62                             +27.05                     +0.40%

DAX                                      9,669.52                             +88.07                     +0.92%

CAC 40                                 4,480.59                               +3.31                     +0.07%

Asian stock indices traded mixed. The Chinese stock markets has shown the fastest growth in seven weeks after the State Council announced that it will deepen reforms of the nation’s capital markets.

The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 declined due to the weaker-than-expected Japanese economic data. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has released the current account figures. The current account surplus decreased to 116.4 billion yen in March, 612.7 billion yen in February. Analysts had expected a surplus of 347.7 billion yen.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                     14,149.52           -50.07        -0.35%

Hang Seng                     22,261.61         +398.62      +1.82%

Shanghai Composite        2,052.87          +41.74       +2.08%

Konica Minolta shares dropped 11% after missing analyst forecast for its full-year earnings.

Sumitomo Electric Industries decreased 6.5% after the company forecast net profit that missed estimates.

Olympus shares climbed 4.8% after announcing an almost 70% increase in profit for the last fiscal year.

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3805/10, $1.3825, $1.3925

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.35

USD/CAD Cad1.0885, Cad1.0915

AUD/USD $0.9240, $0.9300, 0.9350/60, $0.9410

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/NOK Nok8.1500

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April      4.1                    6.0

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Current                     April      57.9      45.2     41.6

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook                     April      34.7                  50.3

07:15    Switzerland            Retail Sales Y/Y                                              March +1.2%  +1.9% +3.0%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. The Australian currency was supported by good economic data from Australia. The National Australia Bank’s business confidence index increased to 6 in April, from 4.1 in March.

The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected Japanese economic data. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has released the current account figures. The current account surplus decreased to 116.4 billion yen in March, 612.7 billion yen in February. Analysts had expected a surplus of 347.7 billion yen.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.05

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

16:00    U.S.                       FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                            

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                          April      -36.9     112.6    

23:01    United Kingdom     BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y      April      -1.7%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3861 (1882)

$1.3835 (903)

$1.3797 (683)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3764

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3731 (257)

$1.3702 (1998)

$1.3660 (2658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 40960 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4629);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 63555 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6807);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.55 versus 1.28 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 9

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7102 (1748)

$1.7004 (1982)

$1.6907 (1474)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6855

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6792 (1187)

$1.6696 (718)

$1.6598 (1084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 20022 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (1982);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 18589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1914);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.