CFD Markets Analysis: News and forecasts for 15 May 2014

23:30

Commodities. Daily history for May 15’2014:

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Gold $1,293.50 -12.20 -0.93%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $110.43 +0.24 +0.22%

NYMEX Crude Oil $101.55 -0.56 -0.55%

23:25

Stocks. Daily history for May 15’2014:

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 14,298.21 -107.55 -0.75%

Hang Seng 22,730.86 +148.09 +0.66%

Shanghai Composite 2,024.97 -22.94 -1.12%

S&P 1,870.85 -17.68 -0.94%

NASDAQ Composite 4,069.29 -31.34 -0.76%

Dow 16,446.81 -167.16 -1.01%

FTSE 1,357.51 -10.87 -0.79%

CAC 4,444.93 -56.11 -1.25%

DAX 9,656.05 -98.34 -1.01%

23:20

Currencies. Daily history for May 15'2014:

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3710 -0,03%

GBP/USD $1,6788 +0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,8907 +0,12%

USD/JPY Y101,57 -0,27%

EUR/JPY Y139,26 -0,28%

GBP/JPY Y170,51 -0,12%

AUD/USD $0,9354 -0,22%

NZD/USD $0,8644 -0,22%

USD/CAD C$1,0878 -0,08%

23:00

Schedule for today, Friday, May 16’2014:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March +0.3% +0.3%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) March +7.0%

06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.1% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. March 15.0 17.3

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases March 6.08 7.21

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln April 1.000 [Revised From 0.990] 1.010

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln April 0.946 0.980

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) April 84.1 84.7

19:00

Dow 16,439.99 -173.98 -1.05%, Nasdaq 4,074.06 -26.57 -0.65%, S&P 500 1,870.73 -17.80 -0.94%

16:14

European stocks close: stocks dropped due to the weak growth in the Eurozone

The stock indices stocks dropped due to the weak growth in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s gross domestic product increased 0.2% in the first quarter, from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. On a yearly basis, the GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.9%, missing expectations for an increase of 1.1%.

On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s harmonized consumer price index was unchanged at 0.7% in April. Analysts had forecasted this figure. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in the Eurozone rose 0.2% April, from a 0.9% gain in March. The inflation rate is still well below the ECB's 2% inflation target.

Thomas Cook Group Plc shares declined 12.0% after posting the weak earnings results.

Richemont shares increased 4.0%, as the company’s results were exceeding analysts’ forecasts.

Deutsche Post AG shares decreased 5.2% after reporting its first quarter results, missing analysts’ forecasts.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,840.89 -37.60 -0.55%

DAX 9,656.05 -98.34 -1.01%

CAC 40 4,444.93 -56.11 -1.25%

16:00

European stocks closed in minus: FTSE 100 6,840.89 -37.60 -0.55%, CAC 40 4,444.93 -56.11 -1.25%, DAX 9,656.05 -98.34 -1.01%

15:44

Foreign exchange market. American session: the U.S. traded lower against the most major currencies after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies amid the speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. That was the biggest rise since June last year. Analysts expected this increase. The U.S. consumer price increase was driven by higher costs for gasoline, shelter and food. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased 2.0% in April, from a 1.5% rise in March.

The U.S. producer price index excluding food and energy climbed 0.2% in April, meeting expectations of analysts. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy climbed 1.8% in April, from a 1.7% rise in March.

The number of initial jobless claims declined by 24,000 to 297,000 from the previous week. The previous week’s figure was revised to 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to decrease by 1,000 to 320,000 last week.

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index increased to 19.01 in May, from 1.29 in April. Analysts had expected a rise to 5.0.

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index decreased to 15.4 in May, from 16.6 in April. Analysts had expected a decrease to 14.0.

U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% in April, from a 0.7% gain. March's figure was revised up to a 0.9% rise. Analysts had forecasted a 0.4% increase.

The euro hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected GDP in the Eurozone, but later recovered its losses due to mixed U.S. economic data. Eurozone’s gross domestic product increased 0.2% in the first quarter, from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. On a yearly basis, the GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.9%, missing expectations for an increase of 1.1%.

On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s harmonized consumer price index was unchanged at 0.7% in April. Analysts had forecasted this figure. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in the Eurozone rose 0.2% April, from a 0.9% gain in March. The inflation rate is still well below the ECB's 2% inflation target.

The French GDP (preliminary) was flat in the first quarter, from a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. The figure of Q4 2013 was revised down from 0.3%. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. On yearly basis, the French GDP (preliminary) remained unchanged at 0.8% in the first quarter.

The German GDP (preliminary) increased 0.8% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.7% rise. On yearly basis, the German GDP (preliminary) rose 2.3% in the first quarter, from a 1.3% gain in the previous quarter.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data. No economic data was published in the U.K.

The Swiss Franc hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weak economic data in Switzerland and the strength of the U.S. dollar, but later recovered its losses due to mixed U.S. economic data. Producer & import prices in Switzerland declined 0.3% in April, from 0.0% in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase. On yearly basis, producer & import prices in Switzerland fell 1.2% in April, from a 0.7% decline in March.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the release of the U.S. economic reports. Manufacturing sales in Canada climbed 0.4% in March, from a 1.5% rise in March. February’s manufacturing sales were revised up from a 1.4% gain. Analysts had expected a 0.2% rise.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar, but later recovered a part of its losses. The Business New Zealand Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.2 in April, from 58.0 in March. March’s figure was revised down from 58.4.

New Zealand's Treasury released its annual budget. The government will reach a surplus in the 2105 financial year. The surplus should be NZ$372 million. The figure was revised up from NZ$86 million. Market participants were unimpressed by this release.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar, but later recovered a part of its losses. In overnight trading, the Australian currency was supported by the new motor vehicle sales in Australia. New motor vehicle sales in Australia were flat in April, after a 0.3% decrease in March. Australia’s year-on-year new motor vehicle sales declined 1.9% in April, after a 2.8% fall in March.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of Japan. On a year basis, Japan's gross domestic product climbed (preliminary) 5.9% in the first quarter of 2014, from a 0.7% rise in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts had expected a 4.2% increase. On a quarterly basis, Japan's gross domestic product rose (preliminary) 1.5% in the first quarter of 2014, from a 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts had forecasted a 1.0% increase.

The Japanese consumer confidence index increased 37.0 in April, from 37.5 in March. Analysts had expected 36.7.

15:40

Oil fell

West Texas Intermediate slid from a three-week high after government data showed U.S. crude inventories expanded as production increased to a 28-year peak. Brent rose in London after the International Energy Agency raised its demand estimate for OPEC crude.

Futures fell as much as 0.6 percent in New York, the first drop in four days. Crude stockpiles rose to a near-record last week as output climbed to the most since 1986, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday. Demand for OPEC’s crude will be higher in the second half of the year than previously estimated following stronger-than-expected fuel use in developed nations, according to the Paris-based IEA.

“The latest EIA data showed crude stocks building counter-seasonally, increasing the overhang,” Amrita Sen, chief oil market strategist at Energy Aspects Ltd., a research company in London, said in a report. “This was a result of refinery runs falling for the fourth straight week. We expect U.S. production to remain on its robust growth path.”

WTI for June delivery declined as much as 63 cents to $101.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.09 at 1:21 p.m. London time. The contract climbed 67 cents to $102.37 yesterday, the highest close since April 21. The volume of all futures traded was about 49 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices are up 3.7 percent this year.

Brent for June settlement, which expires today, was 30 cents higher at $110.49 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $8.52 to WTI on ICE. The July contract was up 10 cents at $109.41.

15:20

Gold fell

The price of gold fell amid rising dollar after data falling initial claims for unemployment benefits . The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week , reaching a seven-year low at the same time . Latest update - a sign that the labor market is recovering from the changeable spring dynamics.

The Labor Department said that for the week ending May 10 , the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 24,000 - to the level of 297 thousand ( the lowest level since May 2007 , before the recession began ) . Many experts predicted that the value of this index will be 321 thousand added that the number of appeals for the previous week was revised upwards to 321 thousand from 319 thousand

Economists note that the figures for the number of applications has been erratic in recent weeks , partly due to the celebration of Easter , which this year fell on April 20 (last year 31 March) . But in the longer term , the rate that equalizes the weekly volatility ( average number of four weeks ) , fell slightly last week - by 2000 to 323,250 .

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1290.90 .

14:29

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: the economy is on track to meet the 2% inflation target of the central bank

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the Annual Tokyo Conference today:

The economy is on track to meet the 2% inflation target of the central bank;
The Bank of Japan will continue its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing to achieve its 2% inflation target within 2 years;
The current economic recovery could be the key to resolve Japan’s longer-term issue of supply shortages;
The increase of inflation expectations seem to have started to influence actual wage and price settings;
Labour supply could be an issue in the near future in various forms due to the demographic trends.

14:15

U.S. inflation rose more than expected in the last month

The Labor Department released the U.S. inflation data today. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. That was the biggest rise since June last year. Analysts expected this increase. The U.S. consumer price increase was driven by higher costs for gasoline, shelter and food. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased 2.0% in April, from a 1.5% rise in March.

The U.S. producer price index excluding food and energy climbed 0.2% in April, meeting expectations of analysts. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy climbed 1.8% in April, from a 1.7% rise in March.

The inflation target of the Fed is 2%. The Fed was concerned as the inflation was low, but the increase in consumer prices should ease the concerns.

The U.S. food prices climbed 0.4% in April, caused by a drought in the West. A drought pushed up prices for meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables. Gasoline prices increased 2.3%.

14:00

U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, May 15.4 (forecast 13.9)

14:00

U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, May 45 (forecast 49)

14:00

U.S.: Mortgage Delinquencies, Quarter I 6.11%

13:48

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000

13:36

U.S. Stocks open: Dow 16,563.82 -50.15 -0.30%, Nasdaq 4,093.09 -7.54 -0.18%, S&P 1,882.60 -5.93 -0.31%

13:26

Before the bell: S&P futures -0.21%, Nasdaq futures +0.01%

U.S. stock-index futures are mixed after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. forecast profit below estimates and investors weighed data showing a pickup in inflation and a decline in jobless claims.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,298.21 -107.55 -0.75%

Hang Seng 22,730.86 +148.09 +0.66%

Shanghai Composite 2,024.97 -22.94 -1.12%

FTSE 6,875.05 -3.44 -0.05%

CAC 4,486.73 -14.31 -0.32%

DAX 9,747.66 -6.73 -0.07%

Crude oil $102.16 (-0.20%)

Gold $1294.10 (-0.90%)

13:15

U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), April -0.6% (forecast +0.4%)

13:15

U.S.: Capacity Utilization, April 78.6% (forecast 79.2%)

13:10

DOW components before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

International Business Machines Co...	IBM	188.76	+0.02%	2.9K
Chevron Corp	CVX	125.43	+0.06%	3.4K
Merck & Co Inc	MRK	56.42	+0.09%	0.1K
Walt Disney Co	DIS	81.00	+0.10%	12.0K
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM	102.42	+0.13%	0.4K
Intel Corp	INTC	26.38	+0.19%	4.7K
Home Depot Inc	HD	76.49	+0.24%	0.1K
American Express Co	AXP	88.70	+0.27%	2.0K
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co	DD	67.91	+0.28%	0.4K
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO	24.61	+7.89%	775.4K
JPMorgan Chase and Co	JPM	54.36	0.00%	5.8K
Nike	NKE	73.57	-0.01%	0.6K
3M Co	MMM	141.56	-0.03%	0.1K
AT&T Inc	T	36.38	-0.03%	0.8K
Procter & Gamble Co	PG	81.10	-0.09%	0.9K
Visa	V	209.66	-0.10%	0.1K
Caterpillar Inc	CAT	106.42	-0.10%	0.4K
Microsoft Corp	MSFT	40.19	-0.12%	14.0K
Goldman Sachs	GS	159.25	-0.13%	0.8K
General Electric Co	GE	26.72	-0.15%	1.4K
McDonald's Corp	MCD	102.83	-0.19%	0.1K
Boeing Co	BA	132.69	-0.23%	0.5K
The Coca-Cola Co	KO	40.78	-0.27%	0.1K
Verizon Communications Inc	VZ	47.88	-0.27%	16.6K
Pfizer Inc	PFE	29.00	-0.34%	1.7K
Wal-Mart Stores Inc	WMT	76.55	-2.78%	594.5K

13:05

Upgrades and downgrades before the market open

Upgrades:

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Atlantic Equities

Downgrades:

Other:

Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $26 from $24 at Piper Jaffray; reiterated at Overweight

Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $23 from $19 at FBR Capital; reiterated at Mkt Perform

Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $24 from $23 at RBC Capital Mkts; reiterated at Outperform

Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $27 from $25 at Oppenheimer; reiterated at Outperform