CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-05-2014

Nikkei 14,425.44 +275.92 +1.95%

Hang Seng 22,352.38 +90.77 +0.41%

Shanghai Composite 2,050.73 -2.14 -0.10%

S&P 1,897.45 +0.80 +0.04%

NASDAQ 4,130.17 -13.69 -0.33%

Dow 16,715.44 +19.97 +0.12%

FTSE 1,368.75 +4.27 +0.31%

CAC 4,505.02 +11.37 +0.25%

DAX 9,754.43 +51.9 +0.54%

EUR/USD $1,3703 -0,40%

GBP/USD $1,6825 -0,25%

USD/CHF Chf0,8900 +0,27%

USD/JPY Y102,25 +0,11%

EUR/JPY Y140,12 -0,29%

GBP/JPY Y172,04 -0,13%

AUD/USD $0,9358 -0,03%

NZD/USD $0,8640 +0,25%

USD/CAD C$1,0907 +0,12%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) April -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) April +1.3% +1.3%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y April +41.8%

06:45 France CPI, m/m April +0.4% +0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y April +0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April +1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +1.7% +2.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April -30.4 -31.2

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 3.4%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 6.9% 6.8%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) March +0.2% -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) March +1.7%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March 7.0

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter II

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April +0.5% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April +1.4%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.6% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +1.4%

14:00 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Quarter I 6.41%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May -1.8

22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI April 58.4

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index March -1.0% +2.5%

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.2% +1.0%

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y Quarter I +2.6%

The stock indices to a 6-year highs, supported by the better-than-expected earnings results from companies across Europe and the news that Germany's Bundesbank is willing to back new stimulus measures from the ECB.

But the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany had a negative impact on stock markets. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

ThyssenKrupp AG shares climbed 4.1% after the company raised its full-year earnings forecast.

Airbus Group shares increased 6.4% after reporting the narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,873.08                             +21.33                     +0.31%

DAX                                      9,754.43                             +51.97                     +0.54%

CAC 40                                 4,505.02                             +11.37                     +0.25%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies despite the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. retail sales increased 0.1% in April, from a 1.2% rise in March. March’s figure was revised up from 1.1%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.5%. U.S. retail sales excluding autos were flat in April (March: +0.7%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.6% increase.

U.S. business inventories remained unchanged at 0.4% in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

The euro slid against the U.S. dollar due to the news Germany supports the additional stimulus measures by ECB and the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

The euro also remained under pressure due after The Wall Street Journal reported that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to back additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow’s U.K. labour market data and the BOE inflation letter.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar, supported by the weak U.S. economic data.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Food price index in New Zealand rose 0.6% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. The weaker-than-expected economic data from China put pressure on the kiwi. Retail sales increased 11.9% in April, from a 12.2% rise in March. Analysts had expected an increase of 12.2%. China’s industrial production rose 8.7% in April, from an 8.8% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 8.9%. Fixed asset investment in China climbed 17.3% in April, from a 17.6% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 17.8% rise. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The Australian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia and China, but later recovered its losses. The house price inflation in Australia climbed 1.7% in the first quarter, from a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter 2013. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 3.4%. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.0%. Home loans in Australia declined 0.9% in March, from a 2.3% rise in February. Analysts had forecasted a 0.1% decrease.

West Texas Intermediate oil rose to a two-week high on amid speculation that U.S. crude inventories dropped a second week. The premium of Brent to WTI narrowed.

Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent in New York. Crude supplies probably slipped 500,000 barrels to 397.1 million last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before a government report tomorrow. Stockpiles reached 399.4 million in the week ended April 25, the highest level since the government began publishing weekly data in 1982. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, probably fell from a five-year low.

“There’s a lot of positioning taking place in advance of tomorrow’s inventory report,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. ‘The consensus is for a second draw. After climbing to a record just a couple weeks ago, it appears that the days of testing 400 million barrels are over.’’

WTI for June delivery rose 55 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $101.14 a barrel at 10:24 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $101.52, the highest intraday level since April 29. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for June settlement increased 20 cents to $108.61 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 19 percent higher than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude traded at a $7.47 premium to WTI, down from $7.82 at yesterday’s close.

The price of gold rose slightly against the background data on U.S. retail sales . U.S. retail sales growth slowed sharply last month, which is a sign of weakness in consumer spending after the disruptions caused by an unusually severe winter.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail sales for April increased by 0.1 % compared with the previous month, reaching at this level of $ 434.57 billion , many experts expect an increase in this index by 0.5%. Basic retail sales ( excluding cars ) remained unchanged in April , compared with forecasts at 0.6 %.

On Monday, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund , reported regular withdrawal of investment funds. Outflow of metal from the fund amounted to 2.4 tons , said the SPDR. During the reporting period , the amount of gold extracted from the fund amounted to slightly less than 18 tons. In dollar terms the outflow of the SPDR Gold Trust has reached 667 million dollars , according to XTF.com.

Investors suffered heavy losses after the fall in gold prices by 28% in 2013, which explains their current uncertainty. Nevertheless , strategists at Commerzbank believe otherwise.

On Monday, the price of gold is temporarily exceeded $ 1,300 , despite the lack of news to justify this increase . Silver prices showed excessive growth , focusing on the gold market . While the price of silver can generally hold the major part of the conquered positions on Monday , gold prices have already lost all the positions won in the same period , and on Tuesday the metal traded at around 1290 dollars. According to analysts Commerzbank, similar dynamics are associated with active growth of stock indices. Thus, the index Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday hit a new historic high.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1298.80 .

EUR/USD $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.40

USD/CAD Cad1.0875, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9370, $0.9385, $0.9410, $0.9425

GBP/USD $1.6800, $1.7000

U.S. stock futures were little changed, after benchmark indexes climbed to records yesterday, amid data that showed retail sales rose less than forecast in April.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,425.44 +275.92 +1.95%

Hang Seng 22,352.38 +90.77 +0.41%

Shanghai Composite 2,050.73 -2.14 -0.10%

FTSE 6,858.31 +6.56 +0.10%

CAC 4,504.34 +10.69 +0.24%

DAX 9,760.49 +58.03 +0.60%

Crude oil $101.34 (+0.75%)

Gold $1297.00 (+0.13%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (QoQ)  Quarter I     +3.8%  +3.0%   +1.7%

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (YoY)   Quarter I    +9.3%               +10.9%

01:30    Australia                Home Loans                     March       +2.3%    +1.1%    -0.9%

05:30    China                    Retail Sales y/y                  April         +12.2%  +12.2% +11.9%

05:30    China                    Industrial Production y/y     April         +8.8%    +8.9%   +8.7%

05:30    China                    Fixed Asset Investment       April         +17.6%  +17.8% +17.3%

09:00    Eurozone              ZEW Economic Sentiment   May             61.2         63.5       55.2

09:00    Germany               ZEW Economic Sentiment   May             43.2         41.3       33.1

09:30    Australia                Annual Budget Release        2014

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales later in the day. U.S. retail sales should increase 0.5% in April. U.S. retail sales excluding autos should rise 0.6% in April.

The euro hits 1-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

The euro also remained under pressure due to rumours that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to back additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow’s U.K. labour market data and the BOE inflation letter.

EUR/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.3698

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.6824

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y102.37

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales                                           April      +1.2%   +0.5% 

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales excluding auto                   April      +0.7%   +0.6% 

12:30    U.S.                       Import Price Index                              April      +0.6%   +0.4% 

14:00    U.S.                       Business inventories                            March   +0.4%  +0.4%           

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Financial Stability Report             May                                    

21:05    New Zealand          RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks                                                       

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales, q/q                                 Quarter I  +1.2%  +0.9% 

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q                   Quarter I +0.7%  +0.9%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3890-900, $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810

Bids $1.3705/00, $1.3650/40, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930, $1.6900/05

Bids $1.6810/00, $1.6765, $1.6715, $1.6700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9380

Bids $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.35/45, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00

Bids Y140.05, Y139.85, Y139.50,  Y139.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.50

Bids Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8250/60, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8190/200

Bids stg0.8130, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

The currency pair EUR/USD hits 1-month lows due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

The stock indices increased, still supported by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's comments last week. Draghi said that the ECB could add new stimulus measures in June to tackle low inflation.

But later stock markets lost a part of its gains due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

ThyssenKrupp AG shares climbed 5.5% after the company raised its full-year earnings forecast.

Airbus Group shares increased 5.8% after reporting the narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,858.43                              +6.68                     +0.10%

DAX                                      9,764.07                             +61.61                     +0.63%

CAC 40                                 4,503.54                               +9.89                     +0.22%

The most Asian stock indices increased, following U.S. equity indexes. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, supported by expectation that U.S. economy is improving.

The weaker-than-expected economic data in China had a negative impact on stock markets. Retail sales in China increased 11.9% in April, from a 12.2% rise in March. Analysts had expected an increase of 12.2%. China’s industrial production rose 8.7% in April, from an 8.8% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 8.9%. Fixed asset investment in China climbed 17.3% in April, from a 17.6% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 17.8% rise.

The Japanese index Nikkei 225 profited from the weak yen due to decreasing demand for the safe-haven currency.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                     14,425.44           +275.92        +1.95%

Hang Seng                     22,352.38             +90.77       +0.41%

Shanghai Composite      2,050.73                -2.14       -0.10%

Nissan Motor Co. shares climbed 5.1%, beating estimates of its full-year profit.

Sharp increased 5.0% after the company forecast that the profit would nearly triple in the current fiscal year.

EUR/USD $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.40

USD/CAD Cad1.0875, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9370, $0.9385, $0.9410, $0.9425

GBP/USD $1.6800, $1.7000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (QoQ)  Quarter I     +3.8%  +3.0%   +1.7%

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (YoY)   Quarter I    +9.3%               +10.9%

01:30    Australia                Home Loans                     March       +2.3%    +1.1%    -0.9%

05:30    China                    Retail Sales y/y                  April         +12.2%  +12.2% +11.9%

05:30    China                    Industrial Production y/y     April         +8.8%    +8.9%   +8.7%

05:30    China                    Fixed Asset Investment      April         +17.6%  +17.8% +17.3%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales later in the day. U.S. retail sales should increase 0.5% in April. U.S. retail sales excluding autos should rise 0.6% in April.

The New Zealand dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Food price index in New Zealand rose 0.6% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. The weaker-than-expected economic data from China put pressure on the kiwi. Retail sales increased 11.9% in April, from a 12.2% rise in March. Analysts had expected an increase of 12.2%. China’s industrial production rose 8.7% in April, from an 8.8% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 8.9%. Fixed asset investment in China climbed 17.3% in April, from a 17.6% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 17.8% rise. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The Australian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia and China. The house price inflation in Australia climbed 1.7% in the first quarter, from a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter 2013. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 3.4%. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.0%. Home loans in Australia declined 0.9% in March, from a 2.3% rise in February. Analysts had forecasted a 0.1% decrease.

The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar due decreasing demand for safe-haven yen. No economic data was published in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6880

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.30

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone               ZEW Economic Sentiment                   May       61.2      63.5      

09:00    Germany                ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment    May       43.2      41.3      

09:30    Australia                 Annual Budget Release                        2014                                     

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales                                           April      +1.2%   +0.5%  

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales excluding auto                   April      +0.7%   +0.6%  

12:30    U.S.                       Import Price Index                              April      +0.6%   +0.4%  

14:00    U.S.                       Business inventories                            March   +0.4%  +0.4%            

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Financial Stability Report            May                                     

21:05    New Zealand          RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks                                                        

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales, q/q                                 Quarter I  +1.2%  +0.9%  

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q                   Quarter I +0.7%  +0.9%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3861 (1882)

$1.3835 (903)

$1.3797 (683)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3758

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3731 (257)

$1.3702 (1998)

$1.3660 (2658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 40938 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4608);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 63537 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6807);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.55 versus 1.55 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7102 (1748)

$1.7004 (1966)

$1.6907 (1474)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6878

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6792 (1187)

$1.6696 (718)

$1.6598 (1084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 20006 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (1966);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 18589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1914);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.