CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-05-2014

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the release of the U.S. economic data. U.S. building permits increased to 1.080 million units in April, from 1.000 million units in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.990 million units. Analysts had expected an increase to 1.010 million units. That was the highest level since 2008.

U.S. housing starts rose to 1.072 million units in April, from 0.947 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.946 million units. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 0.980 million units. That was the best figure since November 2013

The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 81.8 in May, from 84.1 in April. Analysts had expected an increase to 84.7.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The weak GDP growth in the Eurozone continued to weigh on the euro. The new stimulus measures by ECB in June are more likely after the release of several weak economic data in the Eurozone.

Eurozone’s trade balance surplus climbed to 15.2 billion euro in March, from 15.0 in March. Analysts had expected an increase to 17.3.

But the sale of Eurozone’s peripheral government bonds also had a negative impact on the euro. Market participants sold Eurozone’s peripheral government bonds amid speculation the region’s economy remains weak.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar due to mixed U.S. economic data. No economic data was published in the U.K.

The Canadian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Foreign securities purchases’ figure was released in Canada. Foreign securities purchases decreased by C$1.23 billion in March, after a C$6.07 billion in increase in February. February’s figure was revised down from a C$6.08 billion rise. Analysts had expected a gain by C$7.21 billion.

The New Zealand dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Investors continue to back the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Australia.

Brent crude headed for its first weekly advance this month amid speculation that escalating tension in Ukraine may disrupt supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter. West Texas Intermediate was set for a second weekly gain after Cushing stockpiles fell.

Futures were little changed in London and are up 1.4 percent this week. Ukrainian forces moved to flush separatists from their eastern holdouts as diplomats from the U.S. and U.K. vowed to punish Russia with industry-wide sanctions if this month’s presidential election is undermined. Global demand for OPEC’s crude will be stronger in the second half of 2014 than previously estimated, the International Energy Agency said yesterday.

“In the run up to the elections next week the tensions will continue,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail. “Even after the presidential elections it’s unlikely to calm down. So this factor of instability is likely to stay.”

Brent for July settlement was 32 cents higher at $109.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:35 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was about 29 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. The June contract expired yesterday after climbing 25 cents to $110.44.

WTI for June delivery rose 21 cents to $101.71 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have gained 1.8 percent this week. The U.S. benchmark crude’s July contract was at a discount of $8.09 to Brent on ICE.

Gold cheaper second consecutive day , as strong data on the U.S. housing market have strengthened confidence in the world 's largest economy and weakened demand for safe assets .

Data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that at the end of last month, the volume of housing starts rose again , thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts , which is a sign of recovery after winter deterioration.

According to the report , the seasonally adjusted bookmarks new housing rose in April by 13.2 % - to the level of 1.07 million units ( the highest value in the last five months). This sharp increase was due to a big jump multifamily housing buildings ( about 43 %). Construction of single-family housing , meanwhile, rose by only 0.8 %. Compared with last year, housing starts rose by 26.4% . It was also reported that the number of building permits in April increased by 8% compared with the previous month , reaching 1.08 million units. Economists forecast that the tabs homes increase to 980 000, and the number of permits will rise to 1.01 million units.

Recent results indicate that the builders anticipate improved prospects after the recession earlier in the year. Many economists in the housing industry and beyond also believe that the market will recover , albeit at a slower pace than other sectors of the economy.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1287.70 .

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000

U.S. building permits increased to 1.080 million units in April, from 1.000 million units in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.990 million units. Analysts had expected an increase to 1.010 million units. That was the highest level since 2008.

U.S. housing starts rose to 1.072 million units in April, from 0.947 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.946 million units. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 0.980 million units. That was the best figure since November 2013

The sharp rise of the U.S. housing starts was driven by a big jump in multifamily homes. Construction of multifamily homes was up almost 40.0%. Construction of single-family homes increased only 0.8%.

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors weighed data showing home construction jumped in April.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,096.59 -201.62 -1.41%

Hang Seng 22,712.91 -17.95 -0.08%

Shanghai Composite 2,026.5 +1.53 +0.08%

FTSE 6,837.15 -3.74 -0.05%

CAC 4,444.39 -0.54 -0.01%

DAX 9,619.97 -36.08 -0.37%

Crude oil $101.84 (-0.34%)

Gold $1289.80 (-0.28%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wunderlich, target lowered from $38 to $35

Downgrades:

Other:

EUR/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810, $1.3770/75

Ордера на покупку $1.3650/40, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3560

GBP/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930, $1.6900/05, $1.6815/20

Ордера на покупку $1.6715, $1.6700, $1.6660, $1.6600

AUD/USD

Ордера на продажу $0.9500, $0.9450/60, $0.9425, $0.9390

Ордера на покупку $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220

EUR/JPY

Ордера на продажу Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00, Y140.40, Y139.85/95

Ордера на покупку Y138.00/95, Y138.70, Y138.60, Y138.10/00

USD/JPY

Ордера на продажу Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.40/50, Y102.00/10

Ордера на покупку Y101.30, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.75

EUR/GBP

Ордера на продажу stg0.8250/60, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8200

Ордера на покупку stg0.8130, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

Economic calendar (GMT0):

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March       +0.3%    +0.3%   +0.7%

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally)  March        +7.0%                 +7.4%

06:45    France       Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary)       Quarter I    +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%

09:00    Eurozone   Trade Balance s.a.                           March         15.0       17.3       15.2

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the U.S. housing data. U.S. building permits should increase to 1.010 million in April, from 1.000 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.990 million. U.S. housing starts should rise to 0.980 million in April, from 0.946 million in March. Later in the day, Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. The index should climb to 84.7 in April, from 84.1 in March.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The weak GDP growth in the Eurozone continued to weigh on the euro. The new stimulus measures by ECB in June are more likely after the release of several weak economic data in the Eurozone.

Eurozone’s trade balance surplus climbed to 15.2 billion euro in March, from 15.0 in February. Analysts had expected an increase to 17.3 billion euro.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.3684

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6813

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.35

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases                                                 March     6.08      7.21     

12:30    U.S.      Building Permits, mln                                                              April      1.000    1.010   

12:30    U.S.      Housing Starts, mln                                                                April      0.946    0.980   

13:55    U.S.      Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)     April      84.1      84.7

The stock indices stocks decreased amid the release of the U.S. economic reports. The weak GDP growth continued to weigh on stock markets.

Eurozone’s trade balance surplus climbed to 15.2 billion euro in March, from 15.0 in February. Analysts had expected an increase to 17.3 billion euro.

Banco Espirito Santo SA shares declined 9.1% as the company announced a capital increase.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,821.23                              -19.66                     -0.29%

DAX                                      9,598.37                             -57.68                      -0.60%

CAC 40                                 4,428.57                              -16.36                     -0.37%

Most Asian stock indices declined due to the stronger yen and the increased China’s bad loans. Japanese shares were extending losses into a third straight session, caused by a stronger yen and a sharp fall in U.S. bond yields. The strong yen had a negative impact on exporters.

Chinese banks had the biggest quarterly rise in bad loans since 2005.

The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite managed to close above the flatline. Foreign direct investment in China rose at annual rate of 3.4% in April.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                     14,096.59              -201.62        -1.41%

Hang Seng                     22,712.91               -17.95        -0.08%

Shanghai Composite       2,026.5                   +1.53        +0.08%

Japan Display Inc. dropped 12% after the company forecast a drop in profit for this fiscal year.

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March       +0.3%    +0.3%   +0.7%

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally)  March        +7.0%                 +7.4%

06:45    France       Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary)       Quarter I    +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%

09:00    Eurozone   Trade Balance s.a.                           March         15.0       17.3       15.2

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after yesterday’s release of the mixed U.S. economic data. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April. That was the biggest rise since June last year. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave brief remarks Thursday at a National Small Business Week Event held at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. But she said nothing about current monetary policy. Janet Yellen explained that job creation is very important for economic recovery and the Fed “tries to promote the conditions to foster job creation”. Investors favoured safe-haven assets.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Investors continue to back the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Investors favoured safe-haven assets. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven currency and the better-than-expected Japanese industrial production. The industrial production in Japan increased 0.7% in March, from a 0.3% gain in February. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese industrial production rose 7.4% in March, from a 7.0% increase in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases                                                 March     6.08      7.21      

12:30    U.S.      Building Permits, mln                                                              April      1.000    1.010    

12:30    U.S.      Housing Starts, mln                                                                April      0.946    0.980    

13:55    U.S.      Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)     April      84.1      84.7

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3848 (2503)

$1.3794 (2447)

$1.3758 (553)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3715

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3681 (2000)

$1.3645 (2986)

$1.3620 (6786)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46021 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4916);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69946 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6786);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.52 versus 1.52 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1828)

$1.7002 (2688)

$1.6904 (1861)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6788

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6695 (1923)

$1.6598 (1516)

$1.6499 (1227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 22829 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2688);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 22833 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (1923);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.