CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-05-2014

Nikkei 14,006.44 -90.15 -0.64%

Hang Seng 22,704.5 -8.41 -0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,005.18 -21.32 -1.05%

S&P 1,885.08 +7.22 +0.38%

NASDAQ 4,125.82 +35.23 +0.86%

Dow 16,511.86 +20.55 +0.12%

FTSE 1,358.91 -2.63 -0.19%

CAC 4,469.76 +13.48 +0.30%

DAX 9,659.39 +30.29 +0.31%

EUR/USD $1,3708 +0,11%

GBP/USD $1,6812 +0,03%

USD/CHF Chf0,8921 -0,06%

USD/JPY Y101,47 -0,02%

EUR/JPY Y139,10 +0,09%

GBP/JPY Y170,59 -0,02%

AUD/USD $0,9324 -0,42%

NZD/USD $0,8625 -0,01%

USD/CAD C$1,0870 +0,10%

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index March +0.3%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m March -1.1% +1.6%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) April -0.3% 0.0%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) April -0.9% -0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m April +0.2% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y April +2.5% +2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y April +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April -0.6% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April -6.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April +0.2% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April +0.5% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y April +1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m April +0.2% +0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y April +1.6% +1.7%

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m March +1.1% +0.5%

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May +0.9

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln April -1714.2 -600.0

Most stock indices stocks traded higher. Further stimulus measures by European Central Bank continued to weigh on stock markets.

Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

The rejected Pfizer’s bid by AstraZeneca weighed on the British stock market.

AstraZeneca shares dropped 11.0% as the company rejected Pfizer’s offer.

Ryanair Holdings Plc climbed 11.0% after forecasting a return to growth this fiscal year.

Deutsche Bank AG slid 2% after the bank sold about 60 million shares to the Qatari royal family. The bank announced plans to raise 8 billion euros.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,844.55                              -11.26                      -0.16%

DAX                                      9,659.39                             +30.29                      +0.31%

CAC 40                                 4,469.76                              +13.48                     +0.30%

Prices for WTI crude oil rising on speculation that escalating tensions in Libya would further disrupt supplies from the owner of the largest reserves in Africa. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil fell moderately .

During the weekend in Libya suddenly increased political tensions . The country's authorities have accused the rebels and retired Army General in the preparation of a military coup. The chances of reaching a truce soon again began to decline sharply . Crude oil production in the country fell again to 200,000 bpd from 300,000 at the beginning of last week , compared with 1.4 million barrels per day last year.

Talks in Geneva between Iran and six world's leading countries , pro- actively minimize its nuclear program ended without any breakthrough agreements. Furthermore, Washington noted that until July is little time left to fulfill its obligations Islamic republic . As part of the agreements reached earlier Iran could increase oil exports to 1 million barrels per day , but now these volumes once again come under the threat of renewed sanctions.

Meanwhile, add that in Ukraine presidential election nearing , on the conduct may depend possible sanctions for Russia , the world's largest producer of energy resources. Russian supplies to the world market about 5 million barrels of crude oil per day and 2 million barrels of oil . U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Francois Hollande agreed that Russia would incur "significant" costs if it continues to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bullish bets on WTI at 3.9 percent - to 311,195 for the week ending May 13, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It was the first increase in four weeks. We also add that money managers increased net bullish bets on Brent for the same period on 7525 contracts , or 4.5 percent, reaching its highest level in two weeks , according to ICE.

June futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 102.73 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

June futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell 16 cents to $ 109.67 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies due to concerns over the economic growth in China and concerns over tensions in Ukraine and in Vietnam. China’s financial regulators tightened rules on bank lending on Friday. Limited credit could inhibit economic growth.

Clashes between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists continued on Monday.

Violent anti-Chinese protests continued in Vietnam. China and Vietnam have been arguing for decades over the islands in the South China Sea.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Market participants are awaiting new stimulus measures by ECB next month. Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. After AstraZeneca rejected Pfizer’s offer, the British currency came under pressure.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The kiwi was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand climbed 1% in the first quarter, from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.4% gain.

Producer price index output in New Zealand increased 0.9% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% rise.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen hits 3.5-month highs against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven assets and the better-than-expected Japanese core machinery orders. The core machinery orders in Japan increased 19.1% in March, from a 4.6% gain in February. That was the record growth in March. February’s figure was revised up from an 8.8% decrease. Analysts had expected a 6.0% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese core machinery orders rose 16.1% in March, from a 10.8% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 4.3% gain.

Gold prices rose today as the dollar and stock markets fell , although strong economic data from the United States to limit the increase . Recall that the data released on Friday showed that the number of new buildings in the U.S. rose in April , while the number of building permits issued reached nearly six-year maximum.

"There are contradictory factors that keep the price of gold in the current narrow trading range : we have a weak dollar and political tensions in the background of the conflict in Ukraine ," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch . "Meanwhile , low investment demand , data and weak physical demand pressured ."

Gold , which is considered low-risk assets , increased in price by 7.5 per cent since the beginning of the year due to the deterioration of Russian -EU relations over Ukraine .

Meanwhile, add that expectations of lower rates by the European Central Bank in the near future to support the eurozone economy have an ambiguous effect on gold.

Stocks of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund secured SPDR Gold Trust on Friday fell by 0.26 tons to 781.99 tons , indicating the decline in investment demand .

Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets on gold futures and options , according to the data Commodity Futures Trading Commission for Friday.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1298.50 .

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750/60

USD/JPY Y101.35, Y101.50/55, Y102.00, Y102.20/25

USD/CAD Cad1.0850

AUD/USD $0.9315

GBP/USD $1.6695, $1.6925

NZD/USD NZ$0.8570

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly as investors weighed the prospects for economic growth amid merger activity.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,006.44 -90.15 -0.60%

Hang Seng 22,704.5 -8.41 0.00%

Shanghai Composite 2,005.18 -21.32 -1.10%

FTSE 6,828.78 -27.03 -0.39%

CAC 4,452.84 -3.44 -0.08%

DAX 9,611.12 -17.98 -0.19%

Crude oil $102.76 (+0.70%)

Gold $1303.90 (+0.83%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

AT&T (T) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

Downgrades:

Other:

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) target raised to $40 from $34 at Brean Capital

Walt Disney (DIS) initiated with a Buy at Hudson Square Research; target $96

AT&T (T) reiterated with Hold at Hudson Securities, target raised from $37 to $39

Economic calendar (GMT0):

07:00    Eurozone      ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks                                                

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, m/m        March   +0.1%                  -0.6%

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, y/y          March   +6.7%                  +5.2%

10:00    Germany      Bundesbank Monthly Report      May      

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies due to concerns over the economic growth in China. China’s financial regulators tightened rules on bank lending on Friday. Limited credit could inhibit economic growth.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Market participants are awaiting new stimulus measures by ECB next month. Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. After AstraZeneca rejected Pfizer’s offer, the British currency came under pressure.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3724

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.09

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3780, $1.3750, $1.3730/35

Bids $1.3675

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6940/50, $1.6900/05, $1.6880/85

Bids 

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9375/80

Bids  $0.9325/20, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50

EUR/JPY

Offers  Y139.95/00,  Y139.75/80,  Y139.00

Bids  Y138.50, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.65/70, Y101.40/45

Bids Y101.10/05, Y100.50, Y100.00

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160

Bids  stg0.8125/20, stg0.8100, stg0.8050

The stock indices stocks declined. Possible additional stimulus measures by European Central Bank continued to weigh on stock markets.

Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

AstraZeneca shares dropped 12.0% as the company rejected Pfizer’s offer.

Ryanair Holdings Plc climbed 5.3% after forecasting a return to growth this fiscal year.

Deutsche Bank AG slid 2% after the bank sold about 60 million shares to the Qatari royal family. The bank announced plans to raise 8 billion euros.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,828.43                              -27.38                     -0.40%

DAX                                      9,595.88                             -33.22                      -0.34%

CAC 40                                 4,440.65                              -15.63                     -0.35%

Asian stock indices dropped due to the stronger yen and concerns over China’s housing market. On a monthly basis, housing prices in China increased 6.7% in April from March’s rise of 7.7%. The strong yen had a negative impact on exporters.

The core machinery orders in Japan increased 19.1% in March, from a 4.6% gain in February. That was the record growth in March. February’s figure was revised up from an 8.8% decrease. Analysts had expected a 6.0% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese core machinery orders rose 16.1% in March, from a 10.8% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 4.3% gain.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                     14,006.44                -90.15        -0.64%

Hang Seng                        22,704.5                 -8.41        -0.04%

Shanghai Composite       2,005.18               -21.32        -1.05%

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750/60

USD/JPY Y101.35, Y101.50/55, Y102.00, Y102.20/25

USD/CAD Cad1.0850

AUD/USD $0.9315

GBP/USD $1.6695, $1.6925

NZD/USD NZ$0.8570

Economic calendar (GMT0):

07:00    Eurozone       ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after Friday’s release of the disappointing U.S. consumer sentiment. The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 81.8 in May, from 84.1 in April. Analysts had expected an increase to 84.7.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar, but later lost a part of its gains. The kiwi was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand climbed 1% in the first quarter, from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.4% gain.

Producer price index output in New Zealand increased 0.9% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% rise.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven assets and the better-than-expected Japanese core machinery orders. The core machinery orders in Japan increased 19.1% in March, from a 4.6% gain in February. That was the record growth in March. February’s figure was revised up from an 8.8% decrease. Analysts had expected a 6.0% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese core machinery orders rose 16.1% in March, from a 10.8% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 4.3% gain.

Clashes in Ukraine’s east and anti-China violence in Vietnam increased demand for safe-haven assets.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3717

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.40

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, m/m          March   +0.1%                 

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, y/y            March   +6.7%                 

10:00    Germany      Bundesbank Monthly Report        May

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3837 (2537)

$1.3794 (1671)

$1.3756 (723)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3704

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3660 (3389)

$1.3619 (6950)

$1.3558 (3505)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46159 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4915);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69789 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6950);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.51 versus 1.52 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1829)

$1.7002 (2683)

$1.6904 (1933)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6821

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2084)

$1.6599 (1494)

$1.6499 (1227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23003 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2683);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 23346 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2084);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.