CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-05-2014

Gold $1,294.50 +0.80 +0.06%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $109.84 +0.47 +0.43%

NYMEX Crude Oil $102.92 +0.21 +0.20%

Nikkei 14,075.25 +68.81 +0.49%

Hang Seng 22,834.68 +130.18 +0.57%

Shanghai Composite 2,008.12 +2.94 +0.15%

S&P 1,872.83 -12.25 -0.65%

NASDAQ 4,096.89 -28.92 -0.70%

Dow 16,374.31 -137.55 -0.83%

FTSE 1,357 -1.91 -0.14%

CAC 4,452.35 -17.41 -0.39%

DAX 9,639.08 -20.31 -0.21%

EUR/USD $1,3698 -0,07%

GBP/USD $1,6837 +0,15%

USD/CHF Chf0,8919 -0,02%

USD/JPY Y101,31 -0,16%

EUR/JPY Y138,77 -0,24%

GBP/JPY Y170,56 -0,02%

AUD/USD $0,9240 -0,91%

NZD/USD $0,8571 -0,63%

USD/CAD C$1,0905 +0,32%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May +0.3%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.7% +0.8%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +2.6% +2.6%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report May

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln March 21.9 24.2

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) April +4.2% +5.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) April +0.1% +0.4%

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence May -8.6 -8.0

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May +0.9

15:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

The stock indices stocks traded lower resuming the recent selloff, as investors weighed corporate earnings.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

Vodafone Group Plc shares declined 5.8% after the company forecasted the fall of its profit in this year.

United Internet AG climbed 6.2% after reporting the better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                                   6,802                             -42.55                      -0.62%

DAX                                      9,639.08                              -20.31                      -0.21%

CAC 40                                 4,452.35                              -17.41                     -0.39%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to expectations for further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone, published last week.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

U.K. house prices climbed 8.0% in March, from 9.2% in February.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to weaker-than-expected Canadian wholesale sales. Wholesale sales in Canada declined 0.4% in March, from a 1.1% rise in February. Analysts had expected a 0.5% gain.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar dropped to 2-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank Australia's policy meeting showed that the bank plans to maintain interest rates at record lows for a longer period of time because the "overall growth in coming quarters is likely to be below trend."

The Conference Board released its leading index for Australia. The index was flat in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised down from a 0.3% gain.

WTI oil price fell slightly today, but remain near four-week high , due to the expectations of tomorrow's publication of official data on oil and petroleum products in the United States . As for oil Brent, its price has risen slightly .

The American Petroleum Institute will release its report on stocks later today , while a government report , scheduled for tomorrow. Analysts polled by Bloomberg, do not expect a change in oil inventory in the country last week after the index grew in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Experts expect that the stocks at the terminal at Cushing declined once again , to the lowest since December 2008, 23.4 million barrels.

Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters suggest that U.S. crude inventories rose 1 million barrels last week to 399.4 million record volume barrels.

Investors remained cautious ahead of the publication of minutes of the last meeting to determine monetary policy the Fed on Wednesday in order to get information about the vision of the central bank's current economic situation .

Also affects the prices of the low volume of production in Libya. Production in Libya remains at 210,000 barrels per day , compared with 1.4 million last year , as production in the fields of El Sharara and El Feel is not resumed within a week after the government reported an agreement with the rebels on opening deposits.

In Libya , OPEC members are the largest oil reserves in Africa, but production in the last three years, broken after the overthrow of former leader Gaddafi due to political instability and attacks on oil facilities .

" Whatever happens in Libya, it does not matter because it can not be worse ," - said General Director of research firm Barratt Bulletin in Sydney Jonathan Barrett .

June futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 102.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

June futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 11 cents to $ 109.49 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rebounded after falling to a one-week low , while rising above the levels of the session. Such dynamics is associated with the expectations of the two speeches by the Fed - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Charles Plosser and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley .

Meanwhile , investors remained cautious ahead of the publication of minutes of the last meeting to determine monetary policy the Fed on Wednesday in order to get information about the vision of the central bank's current economic situation .

We also add that heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine is in the spotlight. Pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces in the east of the country continue to clash .

Impact on prices as a report from the World Gold Council (WGC) supply and demand in the gold market in the I quarter of 2014. Although demand remained virtually at the same level compared to the same period last year ( 1074.5 m) , its components have changed considerably : the demand for gold bars and coins fell by almost 40 %, while the outflow of deposits from the ETF- funds observed in last year, came to an end . Slightly decreased industrial demand and demand from central banks , while jewelry demand rose moderately . Also, add that consumer demand in China fell by 18 % , and in India - 26%. In both cases, the reason for the drop was the decline in demand for gold bars and coins . Nevertheless , in WGC expects that overall demand for gold in the two countries this year will be relatively stable compared to the record last year.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1293.70.

EUR/USD $1.3700/10, $1.3725, $1.3745/55

USD/JPY Y100.60, Y100.75

USD/CAD Cad1.0825, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0925

AUD/USD $0.9330, $0.9360

GBP/USD $1.6900

NZD/USD NZ$0.8600

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors weighed worse-than-estimated quarterly earnings from Staples Inc. and Home Depot Inc.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,075.25 +68.81 +0.49%

Hang Seng 22,834.68 +130.18 +0.57%

Shanghai Composite 2,008.12 +2.94 +0.15%

FTSE 6,805.01 -39.54 -0.58%

CAC 4,454.57 -15.19 -0.34%

DAX 9,636.56 -22.83 -0.24%

Crude oil $102.48 (-0.13%)

Gold $1287.70 (-0.49%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Australia           Conference Board Australia Leading Index     March   +0.3%                0.0%

01:30    Australia           RBA Meeting's Minutes                                                            

03:15    Australia           RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks                                                            

04:30    Japan               All Industry Activity Index, m/m                    March   -1.1%   +1.6%   +1.5%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (MoM)                         April      -0.3%   0.0%      -0.1%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (YoY)                          April      -0.9%   -0.7%     -0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m                                April      +0.2%  +0.4%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y                                          April      +2.5%  +2.6%   +2.5%

08:30    United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y                                                   April      +2.5%               +2.6%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)             April      -0.6%   0.0%      -1.1%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)              April      -6.5%                 -5.5%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)          April      +0.2%  +0.2%    +0.0%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)           April      +0.5%  +0.8%    +0.6%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y                                      April      +1.6%               +2.0%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, m/m                                                  April      +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y                                                    April      +1.6%  +1.7%   +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to expectations for further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone, published last week.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar amid the release of Canadian wholesale sales. Wholesale sales in Canada should increase 0.5% in March, from a 1.1% rise in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3677

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6864

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.23

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada   Wholesale Sales, m/m                                        March   +1.1%       +0.5% 

16:30    U.S.        FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                           

17:00    U.S.        FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                                                 

23:50    Japan     Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln            April      -1714.2      -600.0

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3730/35

Bids $1.3648, $1.3645/40, $1.3632, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6940/50, $1.6900/05, $1.6880/85

Bids $1.6800

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9375/80, $0.9345/50, $0.9295/00

Bids $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y139.75/80, Y139.50, Y139.20/25, Y139.00

Bids  Y138.50, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.40/45, Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.65/70

Bids  Y101.10/05, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65

Bids stg0.8115/10, stg0.8100, stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The stock indices stocks traded lower resuming the recent selloff.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

Vodafone Group Plc shares declined 3.7% after the company forecasted the fall of its profit in this year.

United Internet AG climbed 5.8% after reporting the better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                              6,812.51                             -32.04                      -0.47%

DAX                                      9,634.14                              -25.25                      -0.26%

CAC 40                                 4,449.58                              -20.18                     -0.45%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

Asian stock indices increased following the U.S. stock markets.

All industry activity index in Japan climbed 1.5% in March from a 1.1% decrease in February, missing analysts’ forecast of a 1.6% rise.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                      14,075.25              +68.81        +0.49%

Hang Seng                      22,834.68            +130.18        +0.57%

Shanghai Composite       2,008.12                +2.94        +0.15%

Yahoo Japan Corp. shares climbed 12% after the company cancelled plans to acquire eAccess from SoftBank Corp.

EUR/USD $1.3700/10, $1.3725, $1.3745/55

USD/JPY Y100.60, Y100.75

USD/CAD Cad1.0825, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0925

AUD/USD $0.9330, $0.9360

GBP/USD $1.6900

NZD/USD NZ$0.8600

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Australia           Conference Board Australia Leading Index     March   +0.3%                0.0%

01:30    Australia           RBA Meeting's Minutes                                                            

03:15    Australia           RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks                                                             

04:30    Japan               All Industry Activity Index, m/m                    March   -1.1%   +1.6%   +1.5%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (MoM)                         April      -0.3%   0.0%      -0.1%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (YoY)                          April      -0.9%   -0.7%     -0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m                                April      +0.2%  +0.4%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y                                          April      +2.5%  +2.6%   +2.5%

08:30    United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y                                                   April      +2.5%               +2.6%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)             April      -0.6%   0.0%      -1.1%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)              April      -6.5%                 -5.5%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)          April      +0.2%  +0.2%    +0.0%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)           April      +0.5%  +0.8%    +0.6%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y                                      April      +1.6%               +2.0%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, m/m                                                  April      +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y                                                    April      +1.6%  +1.7%   +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar dropped to 2-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank Australia's policy meeting showed that the bank plans to maintain interest rates at record lows for a longer period of time because the "overall growth in coming quarters is likely to be below trend."

The Conference Board released its leading index for Australia. The index was flat in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised down from a 0.3% gain.

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. All industry activity index in Japan climbed 1.5% in March from a 1.1% decrease in February, missing analysts’ forecast of a 1.6% rise.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y101.60

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada   Wholesale Sales, m/m                                        March   +1.1%       +0.5%  

16:30    U.S.        FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                            

17:00    U.S.        FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                                                  

23:50    Japan     Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln            April      -1714.2      -600.0

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3836 (2720)

$1.3805 (1489)

$1.3760 (723)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3708

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3675 (3374)

$1.3631 (6649)

$1.3566 (3480)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46545 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4915);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69294 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6649);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.49 versus 1.51 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1844)

$1.7002 (2710)

$1.6904 (1932)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6813

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2404)

$1.6599 (1542)

$1.6499 (1237)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23053 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2710);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 23943 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2404);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.