CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-05-2017

Consumer sentiment remained on the high plateau established following Trump's election, with the early May figure nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.4. The Trump bump was relatively small given that the Sentiment Index averaged 91.8 in the comparable six month period a year ago and 94.5 in the same period two years ago.

The recent stability in consumer sentiment, however, masks two important underlying shifts in the components as well as in the partisan divide. More favorable income gains and low inflation meant that consumers held the most favorable real income expectations in a dozen years. Buying plans, however, were mixed: household durables rose to a decade peak, while vehicle buying conditions slipped to a three year low.

EURUSD:1.0700 (EUR 882m) 1.0750 (634m) 1.0780 (563m) 1.0800 (641m) 1.0830-40 (11bln) 1.0845-50 (915m) 1.0880-90 (877m) 1.0900 (1.28bln) 1.0930 (435m) 1.0950 (1.7bln) 1.1000 (2.9bln) 1.1050-60 (4.1bln)

USDJPY: 112.60-70 (USD 505m) 113.90-114.00 (805m) 115.00 (825m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 445m) 1.2930-40 (456m) 1.3000-05 (434m)

EURGBP: 0.8300 (EUR 940m) 0.8370 (239m) 0.8425 (204m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 420m) 0.7450 (388m) 0.7500 (350m)

NZDUSD: 0.6950 (NZD 489m) 0.6975 (270m)

USDCAD: 1.3700 (USD 555m) 1.3725 (375m)

EURJPY: 123.00 (EUR 438m) 125.00 (247m)

• Time to recalibrate and begin normalisation process, size of balance sheet part of that

• Normal size of balance sheet going to be substantially more than $800 bln

• Personally it would be reasonable to have amount that you could take out of balance sheet each month

• Path of balance sheet down to normal level is going to be gradual, 3-4 years

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as investors assessed a raft of macro data to gauge the strength of the economy.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,883.90 -77.65 -0.39%

Hang Seng 25,156.34 +30.79 +0.12%

Shanghai 3,083.36 +21.86 +0.71%

S&P/ASX 5,836.90 -41.44 -0.70%

FTSE 7,407.10 +20.47 +0.28%

CAC 5,389.17 +5.75 +0.11%

DAX 12,729.34 +18.28 +0.14%

Crude $47.89 (+0.13%)

Gold $1,229.10 (+0.40%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

General Electric (GE) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Other:

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $180 from $155 at BofA/Merrill

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $170 from $164 at Goldman

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 4.5 percent above April 2016. Total sales for the February 2017 through April 2017 period were up 4.7 percent from the same period a year ago.

The February 2017 to March 2017 percent change was revised from down 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent from March 2017, and up 4.5 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Gasoline Stations sales were up 12.3 percent from April 2016, while Nonstore Retailers were up 11.9 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in indexes for shelter, energy, tobacco, and food all contributed to the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 1.1 percent, with all 3 of its major component indexes rising. The food index rose 0.2 percent, mostly due to a sharp increase in the index for fresh vegetables.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in April after declining in March. The shelter index increased 0.3 percent, and the tobacco index

increased sharply over the month. However, many indexes declined in April, including those for wireless phone services, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, and new vehicles.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0880 1.0900 1.0920-30 1.0950 1.0985 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050

Bids: 1.0850 1.0830 1.0820 1 .0800 1.0780 1.0750 1.0700

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2885 1.2900 1.2925-30 1.2950 1.2965 1.2980-85 1.3000

Bids: 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750 1.2730 1.2700

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.80 124.00 124.30 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 123.30 123.00 122.80 122.50 122.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8450-55 0.8465 0.8480-85 0.8500

Bids: 0.8425 0.8400 0.8380-85 0.8365 0.8350

USD/JPY

Offers: 113.85 114.00 114.20 114.35 114.50 114.70 115.00

Bids: 113.65 113.50 113.20 113.00 112.80 112.45-50

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7400 0.7425 0.7550-55 0.7480 0.7500

Bids: 0.7370 0.7350 0.7330-35 0.7320 0.7300 0.7285 0.7250 0.7200

• EU needs to put forward vision for future, there is great level of confusion, has turned into bureaucratic state

In March 2017 compared with February 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and remained stable in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In February 2017 industrial production also fell by 0.1% in the euro area and remained unchanged in the EU28. In March 2017 compared with March 2016, industrial production increased by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28.

The decrease of 0.1% in industrial production in the euro area in March 2017, compared with February 2017, is due to production of energy falling by 3.2%, while production of capital goods rose by 0.2%, intermediate goods by 0.3%, durable consumer goods by 0.9% and non-durable consumer goods by 2.1%. In the EU28, the stable level of industrial production is due to production of energy falling by 2.8%, while production of capital goods rose by 0.1%, intermediate goods by 0.4%, durable consumer goods by 0.9% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.9%.

• Interest margin will be lower in the future, we will earn less

• Sees annual return on equity reaching 18-19 pct

• Deputy PM says expects to see single-digit figures by end-year in inflation, interest rates and unemployment

EURUSD:1.0700 (EUR 882m) 1.0750 (634m) 1.0780 (563m) 1.0800 (641m) 1.0830-40 (11bln) 1.0845-50 (915m) 1.0880-90 (877m) 1.0900 (1.28bln) 1.0930 (435m) 1.0950 (1.7bln) 1.1000 (2.9bln) 1.1050-60 (4.1bln)

USDJPY: 112.60-70 (USD 505m) 113.90-114.00 (805m) 115.00 (825m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 445m) 1.2930-40 (456m) 1.3000-05 (434m)

EURGBP: 0.8300 (EUR 940m) 0.8370 (239m) 0.8425 (204m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 420m) 0.7450 (388m) 0.7500 (350m)

NZDUSD: 0.6950 (NZD 489m) 0.6975 (270m)

USDCAD: 1.3700 (USD 555m) 1.3725 (375m)

EURJPY: 123.00 (EUR 438m) 125.00 (247m)

• State spending, private consumption also increased slightly

• Foreign trade contributed to overall gdp growth in Q1 as exports rose more than imports

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1041 (7739)

$1.0976 (4111)

$1.0933 (3693)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0867

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0809 (3983)

$1.0752 (4861)

$1.0677 (6049)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 82099 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (7739);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 88988 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (6049);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 11

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3202 (2360)

$1.3103 (2628)

$1.3006 (3630)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2882

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2794 (1992)

$1.2697 (1934)

$1.2598 (1495)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 33229 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3630);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35154 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• France's Conservative The Republicans and Far-Right national front to get 20 pct each in parliamentary election

• Mortgage-backed securities sales were $0 billion from May 4 -10

The German economy continues to grow. In the first quarter of 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% on the fourth quarter of 2016 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that, in the second half of the previous year, the GDP grew a little more moderately (+0.2% in the third and +0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016).

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) shows that positive contributions came from both domestic and foreign demand, according to provisional calculations. Capital formation increased substantially. Due to the mild weather, fixed capital formation especially in construction, but also in machinery and equipment was markedly up compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. Households and general government increased their final consumption expenditure slightly at the beginning of the year. In addition, the development of foreign trade was more dynamic and contributed to growth as exports increased more than imports, according to provisional results.

Consumer prices in Germany were 2.0% higher in April 2017 than in April 2016. The inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index is on the rise again (March 2017: +1.6%; February 2017: +2.2%). Compared with March 2017, the consumer price index remained unchanged in April 2017. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 27 April 2017.

As in the months before, the inflation rate of April 2017 was mainly influenced by the development of energy prices. The month-on-month price increase (+5.1%) was at the level of March 2017. Prices of mineral oil products, in particular, went up considerably (+14.3%, of which heating oil: +30.1% and motor fuels: +10.6%). The annual rates of price increase showed diverging trends for the other types of household energy. Electricity prices, for example, were up by 1.1%, while gas prices were down by 3.4%. Excluding the prices of all types of energy, the inflation rate would have been +1.7% in April 2017; excluding the prices of mineral oil products, it would have been only +1.4%.

• Assad says Geneva peace talks fruitless

• Assad says de-escalation zones give chance for insurgents to hand over weapons, and for "reconciliation" with government

• In interview with Belarus tv channel ONT says he will not back down, "i'm not tired"

European stocks dropped Thursday, pulling back from a 21-month high, with the market coming under pressure as the euro marched higher in the wake of a lackluster economic outlook for the British economy.

U.S. stocks retreated Thursday as retail stocks slumped on disappointing earnings from Macy's Inc. M, -17.01% which weighed on the consumer discretionary sector. Performance of consumer discretionary stocks is often viewed as a reflection of consumers' confidence in the economy as companies in the sector manufacture non-essential goods that are sensitive to economic cycles.

Stock markets across Asia were broadly down early Friday, tracking overnight weakness in Europe and the U.S. amid disappointing earnings reports. In Japan, stocks were hit by 0.5% gain in the yen against the U.S. dollar over the last day, making the country's exports less competitive.